The prediction market sector is quietly rewriting the DeFi narrative landscape.
I took a look at DefiLlama’s latest data—some key numbers really stand out:
Kalshi’s trading volume over the past 7 days has surged to $3.073 billion, and over the past 30 days it has reached around $11.5 billion—basically running far ahead of everyone else;
Polymarket: $1.189 billion over the past 7 days, with TVL steady at $405 million;
Predict Fun: $103 million over the past 7 days, with TVL at $21.68 million;
OPINION is even more extreme: TVL is only $4.58 million, yet it has generated $95.32 million in 7-day trading volume—capital turnover efficiency at full throttle.
A few personal observations:
First, the gap between Kalshi and Polymarket is still widening. The combination of regulatory licenses and the U.S. user entry point is pulling the main battleground of prediction markets toward the traditional finance side;
Second, the ratio between TVL and trading volume varies greatly. Models like OPINION’s “asset-light, high-turnover” setup look more like an event-driven trading venue rather than a capital “sink”;
Third, the total trading volume across the entire sector over the past 7 days is already approaching $4.4 billion. This is no longer a niche experiment, but one of the few real on-chain scenarios that is actually producing volume.
In the second half of the year, battles around elections, sports, and macro events will only intensify—worth keeping a close eye on this curve.
#预测市场 #Polymarket #Kalshi