polymarket

The NYT revealed that Polymarket has “insider bets,” but the drama fizzled out as soon as it began.
The Block used on-chain data to debunk the story: this DeFi veteran has a long track record and was already making million-dollar political bets ages ago. Just a seasoned player adding to their position and playing the game—not trading on insider info.

$POLY #Polymarket

Votes backed by real money are more honest than hot air: On Polymarket, the odds of BTC falling to $70,000 before year-end are 52%, while the odds of it climbing back to $100,000 are just 9%. Kalshi’s year-end expectations are also clustered between $70,000 and $80,000, and cumulative trading volume in this market has reached $82.74 million. BTC is currently at $75,700, down 2.4% over 7 days and 6.6% over 30 days; the Fear & Greed Index is at 25, indicating extreme fear. Prediction markets aren’t fortune-tellers, but when more than half the money is betting on further declines, bargain hunters should ask themselves: are you catching a falling knife, or picking up chips? #Polymarket #Bitcoin

The same $70K, and the two betting markets are already arguing.

On Polymarket, the odds of hitting $70K before the end of $BTC are now 57%, up from 52% yesterday—a 5-point jump overnight. The odds of hitting $70K in November are 43%, while the odds of hitting $72,500 are 61%.

But Kalshi refuses to agree: for closing the year in the $70K–$75K range, Kalshi is at 17.5%, while Polymarket’s U.S. market is only at 13%—a 4.5-point gap. For the $65K–$70K range, it’s 11.2% versus 8%, a further 3.2-point gap.

One side is betting real money that things will keep sliding, while the other side’s pricing doesn’t line up at all. The current price is $75,766, just $5,766 above $70K, with 22 days left in November.

A. Trust Polymarket: $70K is bound to get tested sooner or later; the bears are making their move first.
B. Trust Kalshi: both sides have the pricing wrong; $75K is the real floor.

Which side are you on?

$ETH $SOL
#比特币 #预测市场 #Polymarket

On-chain data has surfaced another signal worth paying attention to.

Reports say VAPE (Puffpaw) was recently caught up in a Polymarket controversy: 1,285 wallets associated with the addresses in question showed very little activity, reigniting suspicions of “wash trading” and “address manipulation.” Prediction markets are supposed to price information, but if dormant addresses and unusual interactions are prevalent behind the scenes, price discovery may be distorted, and the apparent market activity seen by ordinary traders may not reflect reality.

For retail investors, there are at least three things to watch for in cases like this:

1. A cluster of low-activity addresses often casts doubt on genuine user participation—the apparent buzz may be manufactured;
2. Sentiment in a prediction market is not the same as a project’s fundamentals; the two should not be conflated;
3. When small-cap altcoins meet sentiment-driven trading, pullbacks are usually much faster than rallies.

Narratives are narratives, and data is data. In an era of ever-increasing on-chain transparency, unusual distributions of funds are hard to hide for long. Before jumping on a hot trend, consider checking the distribution of addresses first, then looking at liquidity depth, and only then deciding whether to enter—don’t reverse that order.

#山寨币 #链上数据 #Polymarket

On-chain data has sounded another warning for popular altcoins.

Recently, VAPE was drawn into a Polymarket-related controversy. Some monitoring reports indicate that as many as 1,285 associated wallets have very little on-chain activity, suggesting the presence of “padding” addresses or signs of Sybil activity. These addresses often hold scattered positions, follow similar transfer paths, and make few genuine trades. If they move in unison around key events, they can easily amplify token price volatility.

The controversy itself isn’t what’s alarming; what’s alarming is focusing only on the narrative while ignoring the on-chain fundamentals. Ordinary users should keep an eye on three things:

1. Whether active and newly created addresses are growing in tandem, rather than the total number of addresses being artificially inflated;
2. The concentration of holdings among top addresses, and the risk of a few wallets manipulating the market and dumping;
3. Whether sentiment in prediction markets is diverging unusually from spot market trends.

Narratives can generate hype, but data doesn’t lie. When small-cap tokens surge in popularity, check their on-chain fundamentals first, then decide whether to participate—and always set a risk-management limit for yourself.

#VAPE #Polymarket #Altcoins

On-chain data has sounded the alarm again. Reports say VAPE has recently become embroiled in a controversy related to Polymarket, with around 1,285 associated wallets flagged for low on-chain activity, raising suspicions of “zombie addresses” or wash trading.

A large number of wallets doesn’t necessarily mean the community is genuinely thriving. If many addresses show only sporadic interactions and highly similar fund flows, it may indicate that the concentration of holdings and the extent of inflated activity are being underestimated. Once the hype fades, selling pressure and liquidity risks can escalate rapidly.

For coins embroiled in this kind of controversy, ordinary users should first do three things: check how concentrated token holdings are, observe the frequency of genuine interactions, and track whether funds are being consolidated in bulk. You can listen to the narrative, but you must manage your own position.

#VAPE #Polymarket #Altcoins

On-chain data is sounding the alarm once again. VAPE (Puffpaw) has recently become embroiled in controversy on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market: reports say that as many as 1,285 associated wallets have shown very little on-chain activity, prompting community concerns about Sybil addresses and wash trading.

A cluster of low-activity wallets is usually a warning sign: the addresses have limited interactions, share common funding paths, make few routine transfers, yet participate heavily in the same market. This can mean that apparent trading volume and hype are being artificially inflated. When prediction-market bets are tightly intertwined with a token’s narrative, sentiment can spread faster, making it difficult for ordinary investors to distinguish genuine demand from hype-driven price pumping based on price gains alone.

In the face of controversies like this, it’s worth sticking to three principles: First, cross-check holder address distribution, the number of active addresses, and trading volume; don’t be misled by sudden spikes in activity. Second, watch closely to see whether the project team responds transparently to on-chain concerns—silence is information too. Third, manage your position size carefully, and don’t let FOMO outrun your risk controls.

On-chain data doesn’t lie, but whether you can read it often determines whether you’re a participant or someone left holding the bag.

Source: https://followin.io/zh-Hans/trendingTopic/13927

#Polymarket #链上分析 #Altcoins

Nearly $200,000 wagered before poll release: Polymarket investigates suspicious trades; prediction market users should watch out for fairness.

Before the poll was made public, someone had already placed a large bet on the winning outcome. The New York Times reported that Vanderbilt University researchers found that on October 31, a Polymarket user wagered about $191,000 on Pete Ricketts’s re-election roughly an hour before the Times/Siena Nebraska poll was released, then made more than $77,000. The same account also wagered about $620,000 on markets related to Michigan, with additional profits of more than $180,000. Polymarket said it had detected the activity and launched an investigation.

This directly affects retail traders: prediction markets depend on fair access to information. If someone gets advance access to an unpublished poll, the odds can shift sharply in an instant, leaving latecomers more likely to buy in at a higher price. It is not yet confirmed that this was insider trading—the researchers also listed other possibilities, such as correctly guessing the release time, personal judgment, or hedging. Times and Siena said they would review the matter; similar large trades on Kalshi have also been flagged.

Next, we need to confirm the investigation’s findings, whether the account will be restricted, and whether monitoring during poll release windows will be tightened. Don’t assume that “getting the bet right” necessarily means “it was insider trading.”

Not investment advice.
Source: The New York Times · Cointelegraph · CryptoBriefing · 2026-11-07 HKT
#Polymarket #预测市场 #加密货币 #Hype B Media

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which One Shows You the Top Traders Worth Copying?

Polymarket is the one to follow, and Banana Predict, built by Banana Gun, is where you trade it outside the US, whether your view is a sports result or a $BTC call.

Kalshi's help pages describe fees, settlement and regulation, and they do not describe copying another trader.

What Kalshi gives you

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange. It charges takers a trading fee on orders that match at once and has no settlement fee (Kalshi help pages, read 27 Oct 2026).

What Polymarket gives you

Polymarket's international site is not CFTC-regulated and blocks trading from the US. It charges takers on certain markets and never charges makers.

It publishes its own profit and volume leaderboard, and its docs describe no copy-trading feature. Its up-or-down crypto markets, where a $BTC or $ETH view gets settled, resolve through a Chainlink TWAP.

Where the filters come in

Banana Predict shows that Polymarket leaderboard and adds win rate, category and trading-style filters. On 27 Oct 2026 it listed 1,493 traders across 7D, 30D and 120D tabs.

Trader profiles carry a Copytrade button, verified on the joseph00677 profile on 27 Oct 2026.

The catch with a big rank

joseph00677 sat second on the 120-day profit list at +$5.3M, with a 48% win rate (10 wins, 11 losses) and a $145.51K average trade. A rank built on huge bets is hard to copy at small size.

Open the Banana Predict leaderboard, filter by category and trading style, and read the average trade size on a profile before you copy anyone.

Would you copy a trader whose average bet is $145.51K at your own size?

#BananaGun #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #CopyTrading

#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting?

💧 $300K Could Have Moved the Senate Odds 10 Points

Prediction markets called the Democratic sweep, but Talos says the prices rested on thin liquidity.

📊 ~$1.9B traded on Kalshi and Polymarket before Election Day
💧 $300K of selling would cut Kalshi's Senate contract 10 points
🧾 Median trade was only ~$10; a few big tickets made most of the depth
⚠️ Brazil's ~80% favorite lost its runoff nine days earlier

Why it matters: a 75% price shows the crowd's lean, not a guarantee.

Trust a 75% market or a 5-point poll lead? 👇

$BTC $ETH
#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting?

Came across some pretty explosive data: according to CryptoRank, prediction market trading volume surged to around $123 billion in October, a new monthly high, up roughly 57.5% month over month and more than double August’s figure.

Breaking it down: sports markets accounted for about $26 billion, and crypto-related markets around $14 billion; political markets topped $800 million, up roughly 43% month over month, driven mainly by the November 3 midterm elections.

The midterms are over, but sports season is still underway—and event contracts are no longer just about “betting on elections.” When spot markets are volatile, prediction markets are just as busy.

#预测市场 #Polymarket #Kalshi $BTC

The crypto market is full of uncertainty and prediction markets offer an interesting way to follow changing market expectations.

@Polymarket brings attention to key questions surrounding major cryptocurrencies:

₿ $BTC — Can Bitcoin maintain its market leadership?

ETH — Will Ethereum regain stronger momentum?

$DOGE — Can Dogecoin attract renewed attention?

✕ $XRP — Will XRP continue building market strength?

Each asset has a different story, but market sentiment, liquidity and upcoming developments will remain important factors.

The interesting part isn't just predicting what comes next, it's understanding why the market expects it.

#Polymarket #CircleQ3Revenue865M #BinanceIncidentReport

Prediction markets flip faster than a page: On Polymarket, the odds of hitting $85,000 in November, with $BTC on the line, were 34% on November 3, 39.5% early this morning, then jumped straight to 56% at noon.

The contrast? The current price is only $80,380, it hasn’t even reached the $81,300–$82,000 resistance zone, and CryptoQuant analysts are still warning that this correction may not be over.

On one side, real money is betting on 56%; on the other, price hasn’t even broken above $82,000. Which side do you believe?

A Money doesn’t lie—$85,000 this month
B These odds are just bets; if it can’t reach $82,000, none of it matters

$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #预测市场 #Polymarket

Prediction markets are becoming an interesting way to track how market sentiment shifts in real time.

Platforms like @Polymarket show how quickly traders react when new information enters the market.

You can follow sentiment around assets like $ETH $XRP $DOGE and $LINK while keeping an eye on macro events and major developments.

The interesting part is the speed:

New information → traders react → probabilities change.

As more crypto assets commodities and traditional markets move on chain prediction markets could become another useful layer of real time market intelligence.

The bigger question is:

Could on-chain prediction markets become a major source of global market sentiment?

Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

#Polymarket

A Polymarket account with no name, known only as 0xA2, made about $917,000 in a single day betting on the U.S. midterm elections, topping the platform’s daily profit leaderboard. Even crazier, his second-largest position was a $1.42 million bet that the U.S. would confirm the existence of aliens before 2027. Is this person a genius, or just a gambler?

According to Decrypt, his biggest bet was that Republicans wouldn’t win a single swing-state Senate seat. When he wagered about $610,000, the odds of that outcome were just 36%. After the votes were counted, Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, and the odds climbed to 87%, bringing his position to about $1.48 million—an on-paper gain of more than $800,000. He also correctly bet that Democrats would win the Texas Senate race, locking in about $106,000. Decrypt also found that on an ordinary trading day in March, the top earner on the leaderboard made just $154,000.

That same night, Bitcoin was far less calm. During the vote count, $BTC briefly fell to $75,618, a seven-week low, before bouncing back near $78,000 over the next three hours. Cointelegraph reported about $288 million in long liquidations over 24 hours. According to Kelly Ye, head of research at Talos, after polling stations closed, the odds of a Democratic sweep on Kalshi surged from about 74% to 99%. In Ye’s view, election night made it crystal clear just how quickly round-the-clock markets can move while traditional exchanges are closed.

But he hasn’t got all his money in hand yet. The results in Alaska are still outstanding, and Polymarket puts the odds of an upset there at 14%. If the race flips, his biggest position could lose. The way I see it, people can look at the same vote count and one makes more than $800,000 while another gets liquidated—the only difference is being on the right side of the bet.

If you were holding this $1.48 million position, would you sell half now and lock in the profit, or wait for the final vote in Alaska?

See today’s other highlights in the image 👆
⚠️ Not investment advice · DYOR
#中期选举 #Polymarket #币圈晚报

This article is sponsored by AVE
https://share.ave.ai?lang=en&code=nancy.c0813

About $1.9B is riding on tonight's US midterms across Kalshi and Polymarket.
$POL watchers know the twist: Polymarket, the app that made election betting famous, is now in second place.

In 2024 Polymarket did more than $3.6B on the presidential race by itself. Tonight, by a Washington Post count as of Nov 2, Kalshi holds about $1.3B of the midterm money and Polymarket about $600M.

The gap comes down to who could serve Americans. Polymarket was shut out of US customers for years and only came back through a CFTC-registered app, while Kalshi was building its US user base the whole time.

Both say they ban insider trading, and Polymarket says it has already looked into dozens of midterm trades.

First polls close at 07:00 UTC+8.

#Polymarket #PredictionMarkets

NFA. DYOR.

Polymarket: 100% chance Democrats will control the US Congress

- Polymarket (a blockchain-based prediction market) reached a 100% implied probability that the Democratic Party will win both chambers of the US Congress—the House of Representatives and the Senate—on November 3, 2026.
- On-chain signals indicate that capital has assigned near-absolute certainty to Democratic control of the entire Congress.
- The path for the CLARITY Act is narrowing as a Democratic-controlled Congress takes shape.
- The RSS source has not provided further details.

#BinanceSquare #CryptoNews #Polymarket #USCongress

$btc $eth

#vlikevn Titanbot

Source: CoinGape

Polymarket’s U.S. brokerage license has moved one step closer: its subsidiary PM Derivatives has received NFA approval as an FCM.

Announced on November 3: PM Derivatives can accept customer orders and funds as a fully collateralized futures commission merchant, completing the “exchange + clearing + brokerage” trio alongside the existing exchange QCX (Polymarket US) and clearinghouse QC Clearing. Positions must be fully funded when opened; any margin trading in the future will require a separate approval.

The NFA BASIC registration date is October 30. It is still listed as Inactive and has not yet started conducting commodity interest business; reports have also said that it will still need to clear the CFTC hurdle before actually getting started. Prediction markets have just heated up around the midterm elections. The compliance framework is being put in place, but operations have not really begun yet. #Polymarket #prediction markets

📢 Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on Democrats in 2026

Prediction markets are pricing a high chance that Democrats take both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterms. Polymarket puts the probability at 78% with more than $58 million traded, while Kalshi has it at 74% with more than $100 million in volume.

Individual Senate markets point the same way: James Talarico in Texas is priced at 74–76%, Troy Jackson in Maine around 73%, and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan around 78%. Traditional polls are also pointing to a possible blue wave.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called these the first elections where prediction-market betting volume has topped $1.4 billion. Those same platforms have been wrong before, though — they failed to call Lula da Silva’s runoff win in Brazil. The odds show where the money is going right now, not a guaranteed outcome.

#CRYPTO #POLYMARKET #KALSHI $USDC