加密昌健Bird

After the promulgation of the two high courts and one law, the criteria for determining "serious circumstances" of money laundering crimes were clarified, and we need to pay special attention to the issue of withdrawals.

Previously, the biggest risk of withdrawing cryptocurrencies was freezing your card or confiscating your funds.
But now, not only will your bank card be frozen, you may also be convicted of money laundering.
After the new regulations are introduced, the following two aspects need special attention regarding the issue of deposits and withdrawals: the first is the obligation to guard against funds during the withdrawal process, and the second is the importance of the transaction contract.

1. How do we identify black money? How do we prevent receiving black money?

Recently, the Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points, adjusting the rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years in Japan.

It marks Japan's gradual exit from the ultra-low interest rate era, slowly returning from the 'free money' era to normalcy.

Why did Japan choose to raise interest rates now?

Mainly because inflation has consistently exceeded their 2% target.

For example, in November, the national core CPI rose by 3.0%, and Tokyo's was around 2.8%. Prices are soaring, making life difficult for the common people.

At the same time, prolonged low interest rates have caused economic issues, such as many 'zombie companies' surviving on cheap money, with debts piling up, distorting the entire economy.

Yesterday, the US stock market opened well, and the Nasdaq index has recovered all losses for the week.

After the interest rate hike in Japan, everyone's attention has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Yesterday, the Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points, adjusting the rate to 0.75%, which is the highest interest rate level in Japan in 30 years, bringing Japan out of the low-interest era and returning to a normal range.

From the current interest rate policies of various countries:
United States: rate cut of 25 basis points
United Kingdom: rate cut of 25 basis points
Sweden: rate cut of 25 basis points
Egypt: rate cut of 25 basis points

Yesterday, the United States released the CPI data for November, which showed a core CPI of only 2.6%, significantly lower than market expectations. This is also the lowest level since 2021, which is favorable for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates.

The CME Federal Reserve Watch Tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January has risen to 27.7%.

After the data was released, U.S. stocks rebounded, with the S&P and Nasdaq indices almost completely recovering the losses from the previous day.

However, BTC experienced an initial rise followed by a fall, and after hitting $90,000, it returned to around $85,000.

This indicates that, during periods of lower liquidity, investors still lack confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

After the US stock market closed yesterday, it continued to decline, with technology stocks collectively adjusting, and Bitcoin also showing a peak and then a pullback.

The American Christmas holiday is coming soon, and market liquidity is relatively low, investor sentiment tends to be more cautious, and any slight movement can cause them to flee.

Currently, the US stock market has reached a leveraged bubble state.

From the perspective of US stock market leverage indicators, since June 2025, this indicator has broken through 1 standard deviation, and is now almost at the level of July 2007, not yet reaching the extremes of March 2000, but already far above the mid-term high points since 2009.

Yesterday, the United States released the non-farm employment data for November, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5%, indicating that the U.S. labor market is currently quite weak.

However, the market reacted well; after the data was released, BTC actually rebounded.

This suggests that the current market sentiment is still okay; although the unemployment rate is rising, the market does not perceive this as a signal of economic recession, which is actually more favorable for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January has risen to 25.5%.

However, it is worth noting that Kathy Wood recently shared a shocking statistic: in September last year, the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the U.S. had already soared to around 7%.

Yesterday, the US stock market collectively declined, and BTC also fell along with it.

But I took a look, and there are no obvious negative news in the market right now.

This week, what everyone is most concerned about is the release of US non-farm and inflation data, as well as the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Will a rate hike by Japan cause the market to plummet?

I believe that in the short term, it will definitely affect market confidence and liquidity, and everyone will be more cautious.

But from a medium to long-term perspective, it mainly depends on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as it is the key driver of the market.

Looking back at Japan's recent interest rate hikes: ending negative interest rates in March 2024, raising to 0.25% in July 2024, raising to 0.5% in January 2025, and this time likely raising to 0.75%.

This weekend, the market has been quite volatile, and yesterday BTC broke below 89000 USD.

In the short term, what everyone is most concerned about is the release of this week's US non-farm payroll and inflation data, as well as whether the Bank of Japan will signal continued interest rate hikes.

If the US unemployment rate continues to rise and the job market weakens, the Federal Reserve may choose to continue cutting interest rates in January, which could offset some of the impact of Japan's interest rate hikes.

From on-chain data, although BTC prices have fallen, the selling pressure is actually not significant, possibly because liquidity is poor over the weekend, leading to insufficient buying support.

Wall Street's famous bull Tom Lee predicts that the S&P 500 will rise to 7700 points by 2026, which means there is still a 10% increase for the US stock market in 2026.

He believes that at the beginning of 20206, the market will continue to rise under inertia, with high spirits.

In the middle of 20206, there will suddenly be a severe turmoil, and we may see a correction of up to 20%.

By the end of 2026, the market will rebound strongly, not only recovering lost ground but also heading straight for 7700 points.

Therefore, the keyword for the market in 2026 is 'roller coaster market'.

This is a huge psychological test for investors; after the market has fallen by 20%, can you still believe in the 7700 points by the end of the year?

Yesterday, the US stock market closed with a decline, with Broadcom's stock price dropping by 11.4% and Oracle down by 4.4%.

This is mainly because the financial reports of these two companies did not meet market expectations, leading investors to question technology stocks, causing the entire tech sector and BTC to follow suit in a pullback.

Currently, market liquidity is still insufficient, and with Japan likely to raise interest rates, everyone is quite cautious; any slight disturbance makes them want to run.

How much impact will Japan's interest rate hike have on the market?

The Bank of Japan will hold a meeting next week to discuss interest rate hikes, and their goal may not just be to raise it to 0.75%, but they even want to raise it all the way to 1.25%.

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, what everyone is most concerned about is the release of data on the U.S. economy, and whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates.

Will the U.S. economy fall into recession?

Some analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve continues to stubbornly maintain high interest rates, the probability of a technical recession in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months is around 50% to 60%.

The Cleveland Fed and the New York Fed calculated using a yield curve model that the probability of a recession within a year is about 20% to 30%.

Some more aggressive models even estimate it to be 60% to 70%.

U.S. non-farm payrolls are also beginning to show negative growth.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a 25 basis points rate cut, marking their third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling 75 basis points, which is basically in line with market expectations.

However, the capital market has already digested this rate cut in advance.

What really draws everyone's attention is Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, as it will directly affect how the market will move in the future.

What did Powell say at this interest rate meeting?

Overall, Powell's speech this time is neutral to mildly dovish.

Although he still opened with a “Good afternoon,” his overall momentum is obviously much weaker than before.

Yesterday, the U.S. released the latest job vacancy data, which showed that the U.S. economy is doing well, boosting market confidence, so both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market saw a decent rebound.

The shadow chairman of the Federal Reserve, Hassett, also stated that the Federal Reserve still has plenty of room for rate cuts, further boosting market confidence.

Next, everyone's attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting early Thursday morning.

A 25 basis point rate cut in December is basically secured, but the key is to look at the latest dot plot and Powell's speech.

What the market is most worried about is whether this will turn into a 'hawkish rate cut'.

The market has been relatively quiet these past two days, with everyone's attention focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 11.

The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut is basically a done deal and there's little controversy.

The market's biggest concern is whether this will turn into a "hawkish rate cut".

This means that although interest rates have been cut, the Fed's tone and signals may be hawkish, making people feel that the future will not be so accommodative.

The usual tactic is that when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it will release hawkish signals through statements or press conferences, such as hinting that future rate cuts will slow down or be paused, in order to appease officials who are worried about inflation and to gain internal consensus.

Over the weekend, although market liquidity was average, overall sentiment was pretty good, with BTC fluctuating around 90,000.

What everyone is most concerned about now is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 11.

The probability of a rate cut in December has risen to 88.4%, basically considered a done deal.

But the key is the latest dot plot and Powell's speech, which will directly affect short-term trends and market sentiment.

It looks quite similar to the end of 2024, when it was also around Christmas, and the market had a good sentiment for a December rate cut, compounded by Trump's election win, and everyone was ready to celebrate.

In recent days, both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market have been fluctuating slightly, and everyone is waiting for the result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December.

Since the speech by New York Fed President Williams last Friday, investor sentiment has gradually warmed up.

This once again proves that the current market trend is mainly influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The focus is on next week: Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? What does the latest dot plot say? What signals will Powell's speech give? Along with the economic data being released, all of these will increase market volatility.

From on-chain data, the BTC turnover rate has decreased significantly, indicating that most investors are holding onto their coins and waiting.

Yesterday, the United States released the ADP non-farm employment data for November, and the results were much worse than market expectations.
Not only was there no new employment, but 32,000 people lost their jobs, indicating that the employment market in the U.S. is quite poor.

After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December rose to 89%, which is basically a done deal.

However, on December 5th, the PCE inflation data for September will be released. If it shows signs of rising inflation in the U.S., even if it's old data from September, it will be used by the Federal Reserve's hawks.

From on-chain data, most investors are on the sidelines, with very little selling pressure, and the chip structure is quite stable. Everyone is waiting for next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

Affected by the official cessation of the U.S. tapering, U.S. stocks rose after the market opened yesterday, and BTC followed the rebound in U.S. stocks.

Bitcoin is the barometer of market liquidity. As soon as the U.S. stops tapering, the price immediately rises.

This wave of increase is mainly driven by sentiment, as everyone expects the Federal Reserve to start massive monetary easing, so they are not afraid of interest rate hikes in Japan.

However, before liquidity is fully restored, this can only be considered a rebound; a complete reversal is difficult.

Who will be the next chair of the Federal Reserve?

Trump made his latest speech yesterday, and he will announce the new Federal Reserve chair candidate early next year.

Yesterday, the U.S. stock market opened with a decline.

Stocks related to cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin MicroStrategy MSTR and several other crypto sector stocks, have all fallen to recent lows.

This is mainly because the Bank of Japan hinted at a possible interest rate hike.

Why does the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have such a big impact?

Because borrowing money in Japan used to be very cheap, for example, borrowing 100 million yen had almost 0 interest.

Investors would then convert the borrowed yen into dollars to buy U.S. Treasury bonds (yielding 4%, 5%), or buy stocks, gold, or Bitcoin, and finally convert the profits back into yen to repay the bank.

Today, Asian stock markets and the cryptocurrency market collectively fell, with Bitcoin, the Nikkei 225 index, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index all performing poorly.

The main reason is that the market expects the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates.

Recently, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if the economic outlook meets expectations, they may raise interest rates.

Currently, the market bets that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 48%, while the probability of not raising is 51%.

Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has surged to 1.80%, approaching a historic high.

Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates for a long time, which has allowed Asia to borrow cheap money for arbitrage trading—borrowing at low interest to invest in high-return assets.