Yesterday, the United States released the non-farm employment data for November, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5%, indicating that the U.S. labor market is currently quite weak.
However, the market reacted well; after the data was released, BTC actually rebounded.
This suggests that the current market sentiment is still okay; although the unemployment rate is rising, the market does not perceive this as a signal of economic recession, which is actually more favorable for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January has risen to 25.5%.
However, it is worth noting that Kathy Wood recently shared a shocking statistic: in September last year, the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the U.S. had already soared to around 7%.
In other words, for every 10 recent graduates, there is one who cannot find a job. Historically, this has generally been a precursor to an economic crisis.
Moreover, this time it is not just a cyclical fluctuation, but rather a structural shock brought about by AI.
Because the current AI tools can perform the jobs of entry-level white-collar workers at almost zero cost, such as filling out forms, creating PPTs, and writing simple code, companies no longer need to hire graduates on a large scale. It can be seen that the current employment market environment in the United States is relatively poor.
From on-chain data, there has been a significant increase in BTC turnover rate in the past couple of days, indicating that short-term investors have intensified their selling efforts.
However, from the chip structure perspective, early investors are still relatively rational, and investors who are trapped at high positions have not sold off on a large scale.
Currently, among the addresses holding more than 100 BTC, there has been an increase of 8000 BTC in the past week, and the stock at exchanges has decreased by about 36000.
If all the reduced stock has been bought by whales, then the upper limit should be around 41000.
On the ETH side, BMNR continued to increase its position by 48049 ETH today.
Overall, December is the time of the North American Christmas and year-end holidays, which is considered the period of worst market liquidity. Coupled with various macro events unfolding, market volatility will increase.
Next, attention can be paid to Thursday's CPI inflation data; the lower this data is, the more favorable it is for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Friday is the Bank of Japan's interest rate adjustment; this rate hike of 25 basis points is basically a done deal. Although it is bad news, the market has already digested it in advance, so the impact will not be too great.
The key is to see whether the Bank of Japan will signal continuous interest rate hikes, as this will affect short-term market sentiment and prices.
