Yesterday, the US stock market collectively declined, and BTC also fell along with it.

But I took a look, and there are no obvious negative news in the market right now.

This week, what everyone is most concerned about is the release of US non-farm and inflation data, as well as the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Will a rate hike by Japan cause the market to plummet?

I believe that in the short term, it will definitely affect market confidence and liquidity, and everyone will be more cautious.

But from a medium to long-term perspective, it mainly depends on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as it is the key driver of the market.

Looking back at Japan's recent interest rate hikes: ending negative interest rates in March 2024, raising to 0.25% in July 2024, raising to 0.5% in January 2025, and this time likely raising to 0.75%.

The first three rate hikes had basically no impact on BTC, with no significant decline occurring in the 1-2 months before and after.

Although the yen rate hike may force some investors using yen to leverage to sell part of their positions, BTC is just a small player in the entire financial system, so the impact is limited.

Therefore, I believe that this time the interest rate hike in Japan will not have a significant impact on the market; it is already within market expectations.

However, we must be vigilant about two scenarios: one is that Japan is forced to accelerate rate hikes, such as if the yen exchange rate completely collapses, or inflation becomes outrageous, forcing the Bank of Japan to continue raising rates.

The other is that while Japan raises rates, the U.S. also begins to tighten monetary policy aggressively, so the core issue remains with the Federal Reserve; Japan is just an additional factor.

As long as the Federal Reserve does not turn hawkish again, it is difficult for Japan alone to influence the global financial market.

How is the on-chain data?

From the data, it appears that currently, mainly short-term holders are selling, and the selling pressure from investors who are stuck at high prices is very small.

The BTC micro-strategy bought another 10,645 BTC last week, worth $980 million, and currently holds a total of 671,286 BTC.

It can be seen that the micro-strategies have started to gain momentum in the past two weeks, buying more than 10,000 BTC consecutively for two weeks.

The ETH micro-strategy also increased its holdings by 102,259 ETH last week, currently holding a total of 3,967,210 ETH at an average cost of $3,906, with a current unrealized loss of $3.019 billion.

In addition, Nasdaq has applied to extend the trading hours of U.S. stocks to 23 hours, five days a week. If approved, it would be a long-term positive.

Overall, what everyone is most concerned about now is the release of U.S. non-farm and inflation data this week, as well as the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

The non-farm employment report will be released on Tuesday, and this data is quite important as it will directly affect the Federal Reserve's decision-making.

Powell has previously mentioned that the rate cut in December is mainly due to poor U.S. employment data.

Therefore, attention should be focused on the unemployment rate data; the current market expectation for the unemployment rate is 4.4%. The higher this number, the worse the U.S. economy is, but it favors rate cuts.

Thursday will see the CPI inflation data; the lower this data, the more it can drive the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Friday is the interest rate adjustment in Japan; this 25 basis point rate hike is basically a done deal. Although it is negative news, the market has already digested it in advance, so the impact won't be too significant.

It is worth paying attention to whether the Bank of Japan will send out signals of continued rate hikes, as this will affect short-term market sentiment and prices.