老李迫击炮

【October 12 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Key events and data to watch this week: U.S. September CPI and remarks by Fed Chair Warsh;
2. Goldman Sachs: Raised its December Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel, while maintaining its forecast for an average price of $80 in 2027;
3. Analysis: A market downturn combined with BTC distribution is not necessarily alarming; potential selling pressure can be released early during the transition from a bear market to a bull market;
4. Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had reached an “energy ceasefire,” effective immediately. Russia has not confirmed the agreement, and Zelenskyy said he was still waiting for details.

U.S. stocks fluctuated but moved higher last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining approximately 1.15% and 0.64%, respectively. Sector performance diverged markedly: defensive sectors such as food and beverage and utilities led the gains, while telecoms, semiconductors, and capital goods came under relative pressure. This week, the U.S. September CPI, PPI, and import and export price indexes will be released in succession. TSMC and ASML’s third-quarter earnings reports, as well as Apple’s smart home product launch, are also worth watching.

In the crypto market, long-term holders (LTHs) transferred around 32,000 BTC to trading platforms on October 7–8, the second-largest amount since the sharp sell-off in February this year. Around 17,200 BTC of this came from U.S. government wallets and was transferred to Coinbase Prime, largely in connection with custody consolidation or case-related asset handling, and does not necessarily indicate selling. Excluding this amount, the actual seller pressure worth watching was around 14,800 BTC, mainly from medium- and long-term holders. Historically, during transitions between bear and bull markets, daily LTH transfers of 2,000–3,000 BTC are normal, while significant surges in volume often coincide with bearish expectations. However, CDD data show that a pullback combined with a sharp rise in coin days destroyed often indicates that dormant coins are being reactivated and changing hands. Although this can create short-term selling pressure, it also prompts less committed holders to exit early, reducing resistance to a subsequent market move. The continued reactivation of long-term holdings and rising turnover are a natural part of value discovery in a bull market: older coins are released and absorbed by new capital, and thorough turnover can actually lay a stronger foundation for a longer-lasting rally. There is therefore no need to panic excessively over every instance of LTH distribution; the key is whether the market can effectively absorb these coins.

【October 10 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. Trump: Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz now exceed levels before the outbreak of the Iran war.
2. Nvidia’s revised definition of free cash flow draws attention: the sustainability of its $235 billion buyback plan is in doubt.
3. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen to 46%, but it has seen more extreme moves this year than during the 2018 bear market.
4. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher this morning; Oracle gained 4.69% and CRCL rose 4.54%.

U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday, with all three major indexes advancing. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each posted gains, reflecting broadly upbeat market sentiment. Major tech stocks turned in a strong performance: Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, and SpaceX all posted solid gains, providing the main impetus for the indexes’ rise. Crypto-related stocks were mixed: MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood rose, while Sbet, BMNR, and PURR edged lower, pointing to uneven momentum across the sector.
Bitcoin has experienced extreme moves several times this year. Although individual swings have been milder than in 2018 and volatility has eased considerably over the course of the year, extreme fluctuations remain relatively frequent. This reflects the continued role of concentrated derivatives leverage and macroeconomic shocks in amplifying price swings. Greater institutional participation, improved liquidity, and more sophisticated risk-management tools have made the market somewhat more resilient to shocks. However, traditional risk models still fall short in capturing tail risks, and extreme moves are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. For the crypto market, the recovery in risk appetite across U.S. equities and the correlation with related stocks could provide Bitcoin with a tailwind in the short term. But rising volatility and the failure of risk models are reminders that traders should not overcommit to a low-volatility environment, and should instead treat sharp market moves as part of the norm.

【October 9 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Friday got off to a rocky start: Bitcoin weakened before making a modest rebound, while concerns about AI earnings resurfaced in U.S. stocks;
2. Fed’s Musalem: Further rate hikes may be needed over the next 6 to 9 months;
3. Altcoins fell sharply, with previously strong performers also weakening;
4. Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade was activated on the testnet, and the block gas limit was raised to about 200 million.

St. Louis Fed President Musalem struck a hawkish tone, saying the Fed would need to raise rates again to bring inflation back to its 2% target. He acknowledged that policy needed to tighten further, and said that if “timely” meant roughly 18 months, there could still be room for rate hikes over the next 6 to 9 months. Even with Treasury yields rising, financial conditions remain relatively loose. On the late-October rate-setting meeting, he remained open-minded and made no predictions. Meanwhile, three U.S. aircraft carriers are gathering in the Middle East, and the Pentagon is considering strikes on Iran’s energy and missile facilities. Trump has put the action on hold for now, leaving room for diplomacy. Overnight, U.S. tech stocks broadly fell amid rumors about AI revenue, while Bitcoin edged up to around $81,800.
For crypto markets, hawkish comments in the style of Powell, combined with geopolitical tensions, tend to boost the dollar and demand for safe havens, putting temporary pressure on high-risk assets such as BTC. However, if inflation cools and rate-hike expectations are realized, liquidity pressures could ease. Along with capital rotating out of tech stocks after their pullback, this could lend Bitcoin some resilience. In the short term, price action is likely to remain volatile as markets react to the Fed’s rate outlook and developments between the U.S. and Iran. Whether the trend can continue will depend on whether the pace of tightening and safe-haven sentiment ease at the same time.

【October 8 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Fed minutes send hawkish signal: Most officials expect another rate hike this year, but there is no clear urgency to raise rates in October;
2. U.S. media: U.S. military has been asked to prepare for a resumption of strikes on Iran;
3. Rising interest rates rekindle inflation concerns; U.S. stocks pull back, while Bitcoin continues to slide in search of support;
4. U.S. government continues transferring large amounts of crypto assets overnight, moving tokens worth $670 million in nearly 32 hours.

The latest Fed meeting minutes show that although policymakers were divided over the case for raising rates, their overall stance was hawkish, with most officials still considering another rate hike this year appropriate. Markets reacted cautiously: the implied probability of a rate hike at the late-October meeting has fallen below 20%, while the upcoming CPI data is seen as a key factor in shaping expectations. Meanwhile, rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran and several countries’ release of oil reserves have revived safe-haven sentiment. The three major stock indexes fell, gold and oil both weakened, and Bitcoin briefly dropped below $83,000 before recovering to around $83,234. On-chain data also shows that U.S. government addresses transferred a cumulative $670 million worth of tokens to Coinbase Prime over 32 hours.
For crypto markets, the Fed’s hawkish stance, combined with rising inflation expectations, is weighing on risk-asset valuations in the short term. However, the sharp decline in the market-implied probability of a rate hike indicates that expectations for the pace of monetary tightening have eased considerably. If upcoming CPI data comes in below expectations, crypto assets may see a window for a sentiment-driven rebound. In addition, geopolitical tensions, the outlook for U.S. dollar liquidity, and continued transfers of BTC from government addresses are interacting to amplify Bitcoin’s short-term volatility. Investors should closely monitor the CPI release and shifts in macro sentiment, assess their impact on prices, and guard against two-way volatility arising from potential policy reversals.

[September 30 Global Market News and Data Analysis]
1. Tonight, the U.S. September nonfarm payroll data is set to be released, with clear disagreement between market expectations and Wall Street;
2. Trump meets with #AI industry giants at the White House: a self-discipline commitment is signed, and near-term regulatory pressure is temporarily eased;
3. Goldman Sachs: oil export volume from the Persian Gulf has already returned to the 2025 average level;
4. Some U.S. stock small-cap altcoin-related concept shares—DAT—strengthened, with #SDEV jumping more than 108%.

With the nonfarm data about to be published, expectations are clearly split. According to predictive trading platforms, traders believe the probability of new jobs exceeding 90,000 and 100,000 is nearly 60% and 50%, respectively—significantly higher than the Wall Street consensus. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs and U.S. Bank set a more cautious tone, forecasting only 80,000 and 60,000 new jobs, respectively; some institutions even expect figures below market projections. There is a stark contrast between optimistic sentiment and investment-banking judgments. Coupled with the New York Fed official downplaying the urgency of further rate hikes, market bets on a rate increase next month have fallen from 70% to 50%. This employment report is expected to become the key variable that breaks the stalemate.
Crypto markets are also sending complex signals. #BTC closed above the 365-day moving average, confirming the start of a new bull market. However, after reaching an eight-month high of $87,400, upside momentum weakened; multiple indicators point to increased risk of a pullback. In the short term, on-chain unrealized profit ratios have risen to their highest level since December 2024, which increases pressure to take profits. In September, daily realized profits also hit a record high for the year. Altcoins have shown signs of selling as well. If the market turns downward, three moving-average supports at $80,000, $71,000, and $67,000 will provide layered support. As long as key levels hold and are not breached, this pullback is more likely to be a healthy consolidation within a young bull market rather than a trend reversal.

【September 29 — Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1, US stocks closed lower across the board for semiconductors, memory, optical communications, and Neocloud shares; #ARM and #CRDO both fell by more than 8%;
2, Rare in 25 years! The yield on 10-year US Treasuries surpassed the earnings yield of the S&P 500;
3, #BTC pulled back; altcoins fell sharply, with Q dropping by more than 23%, while ONDO and NEAR both fell by more than 13%;
4, Tracking the Middle East situation: US-Iran talks focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear program; Trump denied any intention to lift sanctions or make asset concessions.

All three major US stock indexes fell together at the close, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq down 0.67%, 0.77%, and 0.92% respectively, reflecting strong risk-averse sentiment. Semiconductors, memory, optical communications, and Neocloud sectors saw nearly across-the-board declines; Arm, Qualcomm, Intel, Marvell, and others led the downturn, while only Nvidia managed a modest gain against the trend. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5% and surged to above 5.2%, setting a record not seen since 2007, and also exceeded the S&P 500’s earnings yield. This boosted the attractiveness of bonds relative to equities to roughly a 25-year high, becoming a core variable weighing on risk assets.
From the crypto market perspective, elevated US Treasury yields mainly pressured valuations. Bitcoin slipped to around $83,000. Altcoins, facing heavier leverage and a lack of incremental capital, saw a further amplification of the pullback. Funds have clearly concentrated toward leading assets with higher certainty. The current decline appears closer to position unwinding ahead of data releases rather than a trend reversal. If yields peak and then fall, concerns surrounding the fiscal deficit, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance may ease. The divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins may continue; whether Bitcoin can hold key support levels will be an important signal for judging whether this pullback is over and, in turn, whether a rebound in risk assets may be triggered.

【September 28 Global Market News, Information and Data Analysis】
1、#黄金 Silver prices both fell today; two whales bought the dip, totaling nearly $30 million;
2、Institution: Expectations for the Fed to raise rates are heating up, and the Bank of Japan may accelerate its rate-hike pace;
3、US and Brent crude oil both rose more than 2.00% intraday. #WTI Crude oil is currently at $93.18 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is currently at $99.38 per barrel;
4、The crypto market’s greed and fear index is at 74 today. Major coins are pulling back, while small-cap coins show mixed gains and losses.

Some institutions point out that the Fed’s September rate hike is more like a hedging and preventive action, aimed at reversing the previous three rate cuts and bringing inflation back to the target range, rather than repeating the deep tightening cycle seen in 2022–2023. However, rate hikes cannot resolve external shocks such as war and energy prices; they may also slow down other parts of the economy, potentially planting the seeds for stagflation risk. The market remains cautious.
Crypto-market internal signals are also relatively bearish. Bitcoin futures demand has plunged from 164,000 coins to 3,000 coins. Spot demand remains stuck at a negative -174,000 coins. Although ETF inflows are strong, they cannot offset the weakness in total demand, with the 30-day cumulative total at -171,000 coins. What is particularly concerning is that over the past 15 days, the price has risen from $74,000 to $84,000, showing a fragile structure of “demand divergence, price climbing.” The sentiment index of 74 is nearing extreme greed. Current #BTC has pulled back to $83,000, meaning that if macro conditions tighten or liquidity contracts, there is a significant risk that the upward move—lacking real buy-side support—will be given back. The rotation of gains and losses in the altcoin sector also confirms that funds are trading in a high-level tug-of-war rather than adding in a trend-following way.

【September 23 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The U.S.–Iran talks released positive signals. Bitcoin is consolidating strongly, and the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuate with gains and losses;
2. Fed official Baring: The rate hike last week “will help” restore price stability, and they will observe whether more hikes are needed;
3. Bank of America: If supply tightens further, crude oil could surge to as high as $150;
4. CryptoQuant founder: Expects #BTC in this bull cycle to rise by 3 to 5 times, with extreme volatility decreasing.

In a recent statement, Fed official Baring said that inflation does not disappear overnight. Supply-side shocks have shifted from temporary disruptions into persistent pressures. Elevated prices may become entrenched for the long term and feed into expectations. He acknowledged that rate hikes can help ease prices, but he did not provide any hints regarding the future path. Coupled with the rare direct contact between the U.S. and Iran at the UN General Assembly—both sides said the talks were positive—U.S. stocks saw mixed performance: gains and losses across the board while the Nasdaq continued to hit new highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been consolidating at high levels near $86,000. Privacy coins #zec have also strongly broken through recent highs.

On-chain data also shows the market is shifting from “blow-off” rallies to a “more steady” pattern: deeper institutional participation, and a lower share of hot money. This cycle may only run 3 to 5 times rather than a 10x-level parabola. The subsequent bear market may also be milder, with extreme volatility suppressed in both directions. At the same time, the cycle’s top and bottom extremes are converging; MVRV has never fallen below 1; actual market cap continues to climb; and early giant whales have stopped selling and are accumulating at low levels. This indicates long-term capital is accelerating its inflow. Overall, Baring’s somewhat hawkish stance may temporarily weigh on risk appetite and amplify volatility in the crypto market. But given the repeated fluctuations in inflation stickiness and policy direction, it instead strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term narrative as a store of value and its monetary functions. Its risk-reward profile is steadily moving toward maturity.

【September 22 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. US stocks: The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.26% to a new high again; #Meta became the most popular application stock in the US as its price surged sharply. Chip, semiconductor, memory, and optical communications sectors all climbed across the board;
2. Crypto market: A strong upward move saw total market capitalization return to $3 trillion. Bitcoin broke through $87,000, and the total market cap of altcoins skyrocketed 13.5% in a week;
3. US SEC: “Innovative Exemption” — tokenized stocks may see the first batch of trading platforms arrive as early as next quarter;
4. #AMD : Market cap surpassed $1 trillion. Market attention on CPU compute demand for AI intelligent agents has reignited.

US stocks closed strongly. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow all moved higher together, with the Nasdaq setting yet another record high. The chip sector was especially notable: AMD jumped nearly 10% in a single day, with its market cap first crossing the $1 trillion threshold, becoming the fourth US semiconductor giant to reach that scale. Meta surged more than 11% after launching its AI assistant, quickly going viral; within five days, the app notched over 700,000 downloads and topped the app store rankings. The market generally believes that AI is shifting from training to inference and real-world deployment, continuously raising expectations for server CPUs and general-purpose compute demand.

Meanwhile, the crypto market moved up in parallel. #BTC climbed above $87,000. Ethereum broke through $2,800. Over the past 24 hours, total market capitalization rebounded by more than 5% and reclaimed the $3 trillion level. The Fear & Greed Index rose to a near-one-month high, with sentiment returning to the “extreme greed” zone. Worth noting is that the AI narrative is spilling over to inject shared momentum into risk assets: US stock tech and compute directions, as well as crypto assets, are rising in the same direction, reflecting investors’ enthusiastic pursuit of the “AI + emerging assets” main theme. Bitcoin spot ETF assets have returned above $100 billion, indicating that institutional allocation appetite is heating up—providing incremental capital and sentiment support for BTC’s upside. In the short term, strength may continue, but investors should still watch for the risk of pullbacks after sentiment becomes overheated.

【September 20 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Next week’s macro outlook: The Middle East’s “big decision” (#TRUMP ) is approaching; the yen intervention window is near; the market is digesting the lingering effects of the Fed’s rate hikes.
2. Iran says it has conveyed three key negotiation conditions to Washington via Qatar and is now waiting for Trump’s decision.
3. Analysis: (#BTC ) Falling wedge compression is underway, awaiting a breakout/turning point; the expansion of the total market cap for altcoins has not started yet.
4. The Nasdaq 100 index’s quarterly rebalance has been finalized; (#SpaceX ) its weight will rise to 2.82%.

Global markets are gradually working through the aftereffects of the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023. Expectations for “higher for longer” interest rates are reshaping the pricing logic for various asset classes. On the geopolitical front, Trump will meet Gulf states during the UN General Assembly, bringing policy direction on Iran close to a crucial turning point; at the same time, Saudi Arabia’s capital air-defense alarms sound again, keeping risk premia and ongoing crude-oil supply repair in a tug-of-war. Japan, meanwhile, faces thinner liquidity due to the “Silver Week” holiday, which puts pressure on the yen and boosts speculation about policy intervention.
The Nasdaq 100 quarterly rebalance takes effect on September 21. SpaceX’s weight increases significantly from 1.28% to 2.82%, aligning more closely with its market-cap scale of over two trillion dollars.

For the crypto market, the dual uncertainty from macro and geopolitics is synchronized with Bitcoin’s technical setup. BTC is forming a descending wedge within an ascending channel. If it breaks out effectively and holds above the upper trendline, it could attempt a push toward $84,000 to $90,000. Otherwise, it may first dip to $72,000 to $74,000 to flush liquidity before another upswing. With direction not yet clear, it may be unwise to bet heavily right away. Once BTC refreshes its all-time high, capital may spill from ETH into mid- and small-cap altcoins and Meme tokens, sparking a sector-rotation-style行情. Crypto’s total market cap could then target $10 trillion to $12 trillion, where volatility and opportunities will coexist over the next six months.

【September 17 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1、After the rate hike of #FOMC‬⁩ is finalized, U.S. stocks’ AI chip and optical communications sectors rose broadly, while the storage sector saw mixed performance;
2、After the rate hike plus the 《#CLARITY bill》 hit resistance, market expectations are that the SEC will issue a major crypto positive this Friday at the earliest;
3、Analysis: The likelihood of Bitcoin returning to a bearish cycle may be lower, with the proportion of UTXO losing positions dropping sharply;
4、Progress is being made to advance legislation for Trump’s “#BTC strategic reserves,” and a related bill has been passed by the U.S. House Committee.

At the September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike, raising the benchmark interest-rate range to 3.75%–4%. This is the first tightening of monetary policy since mid-2023. Judging from the published dot plot, most members still lean toward raising rates at least once more within the year, and market expectations for the policy-rate midpoint over the next two years are basically unchanged. After the rate hike was confirmed, major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow fell by more than 1%. AI-related sectors such as chips and optical communications showed relatively resilient performance, even rising against the trend; however, blockchain concept stocks faced clear selling pressure, with multiple targets’ declines clustering between 3% and 7%.
For crypto assets, which have historically been highly sensitive to interest rates, this time they did not follow the U.S. stock sell-off; instead, they saw a modest rebound driven by Bitcoin—contradicting the classic logic of the past “rate-hike bearish news.” With two major negatives from this round—tightening and resistance to the CLARITY bill—already priced in by the market before they were finalized, “bearish news being realized” has instead produced a “the boot is on the ground” effect. The market has started to expect a shift in regulatory stance. Rumors suggest the SEC and CFTC may accelerate the rulemaking for digital-asset regulations, and may even introduce innovative exemption measures, providing new room for imagination and funding. On-chain data also released positive signals: the proportion of losing positions continues to fall. Historically, similar changes in holder-structure often indicate strengthening market momentum, suggesting that Bitcoin may be gathering strength for a new upward cycle, emerging from the mire of a bear market.

【September 16 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Preview: #fomc will release its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. tomorrow, and the prospect of further rate hikes has again become the market’s baseline expectation;
2. Analysis: After U.S. 10-year Treasury yields broke above 5%, the real pressure may become evident in 12 to 18 months;
3. SK hynix is in talks with Intel, planning to produce memory chips for the first time on U.S. soil;
4. The key procedural vote for the “#CLARITY bill” was not passed. Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000, and crypto-related stocks were hit across the board.

At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve will publish its interest rate decision, after which Chair Wouhs will hold a press conference. According to current CME data, the probability the market assigns to a 25-basis-point hike has reached 95%, and the probability implied by the futures market is also as high as 88%—making rate hikes the baseline expectation. However, institutional views differ: ING tends to see it as a “reset” rather than the start of a continuous hiking cycle, while Deutsche Securities expects three rate hikes in total, both within the year and in the early part of next year. Meanwhile, the “CLARITY Act” failed to clear the 60-vote threshold in the Senate’s procedural vote, with a 49-to-50 result, so it cannot enter formal consideration in the near term. As a result, Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000 and crypto total market capitalization shrank by about 4%.
The core impact of this meeting on BTC is whether the Fed’s policy reaction function truly flips. If the market believes the Fed shifts from “tightening only if data compels it” to “leaning toward hikes unless data blocks it,” expectations of liquidity tightening would weigh on high-volatility risk assets like crypto. A stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields are also bearish for Bitcoin. In the short term, rate hikes have already been priced in to a substantial degree; after the dust settles, there could be a “bad news already out” rebound. But if the press conference delivers hawkish signals for consecutive hikes or a higher dot-plot trajectory, combined with regulatory tailwinds weakened by the stalled bill, support below #BTC may face a test, and the rebound magnitude is uncertain. Overall, this is more of a directional shock than a magnitude-driven one; the key variables will be the wording in post-meeting statements and the dot plot.

【September 15 AstralX Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#美联储 : Ahead of the policy meeting, markets saw violent fluctuations—U.S. Treasury yields hit the highest level since 2007, and AI stocks were sold off;
2、The 30-year Treasury yield hit a new high since 2004. Oil prices and Treasury yields have rarely been in “perfect sync,” putting pressure on global financial markets;
3、The number of transactions involving altcoins increased nearly 4 times compared with July, and the market is on alert for potential sell pressure;
4、The USD/JPY exchange rate broke through the 155 level, reaching the highest point in a week.

The Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting this Tuesday. Markets widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, and the probability of another cut in December rises to 75%. However, inflation remains above the 2% target, leaving Chair Powell under pressure. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5% and hit a fresh high since 2007. Both Brent crude and WTI moved above the 100-yuan-per-barrel threshold. The one-month rolling correlation between oil prices and Treasury yields climbed to 0.96, the highest since June 2019. AI stocks were dumped on Monday, with Nvidia leading the declines. Trump called Huang Renxun to say he was worried, calling it a “scam,” but it still failed to stabilize the close. Analysts have warned of bond bear-market risks and suggested allocating to tangible assets such as gold, copper, and real estate.
For the crypto market, the interest-rate decision and a procedural vote on the “CLARITY Act” are approaching. In the past 7 days, the average number of altcoin inflow transactions reached 31,800, about 4 times the 8,300 in July. Large volumes of token inflows to exchanges often signal potential sell pressure. Combined with Total 3’s market value growing by over $136 billion, investors may take profits at elevated levels. In the short term, it could weigh on #BTC to a certain extent. If geopolitical tensions ease and concerns about high interest rates cool down, risk-asset sentiment may improve again.

【September 14 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. This week’s macro outlook: On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision, and the 《#CLARITY Bill》 will face a key vote;
2. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September; this follows its prior forecast of no rate hike;
3. Unlocking schedule this week: ARB, ZRO, and STRK will each see a one-time large unlocking;
4. A well-known trader discusses #fomc ’s impact on crypto: Much of the macro narrative is noise—Bitcoin prices usually move ahead of macro trends.

This week brings a concentrated period of central bank decisions worldwide. The Fed’s policy outcome and economic expectations, along with successive statements from the central banks of the UK and Japan, will take effect in sequence. At the same time, attention is rising as the U.S. legislative branch conducts procedural voting on the new bill and regulators discuss 24-hour trading. For macro topics like these, some believe they are mostly distractions—Bitcoin often moves first when the logic is not yet clear. Once the mainstream forms consensus, the market trend is usually already well underway, and correlations naturally lag. By the time most people fully understand, the market may have already moved.
Regarding Bitcoin’s recent performance, the price has been oscillating repeatedly—dropping below prior lows multiple times and wiping out long positions, aiming to remove leverage and erode long-side confidence. Such low-sweeping behavior is often viewed as a prelude to bullish continuation; after the final drop marks a local low, the price often shifts upward and expands. Overall, even if central bank meetings bring short-term volatility, the lagging nature of macro noise and the leverage that has been cleansed by the range-bound shakeout may still allow #BTC to build upside breakout momentum after repeated consolidation.

【September 10 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. stock market close: the three major indices fell for the third consecutive day. The storage and optical communications sectors rose against the trend; Apple released its foldable-screen iPhone Duo.
2. The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating transactions between Nvidia and Groq, involving alleged attempts to evade antitrust measures.
3. An internal acknowledgment in the White House suggests that the Iran war could continue until the end of the president’s term, but Trump insists that the “wartime phase” will last until November.
4. Trump: He will provide a $5,000 dividend to every adult in the United States, if Republicans win the upcoming elections for both the House and the Senate.

Last night, all three major U.S. indices closed lower, and the overall market sentiment was weak. On the board, crypto-related stocks generally declined, while the storage and optical communications sectors strengthened in contrast. Apple closed down 0.28% and also released its first foldable-screen model, #iPhoneDuo . At the individual-stock level, performance in the storage-chip segment was mixed: Seagate fell 2.04%, while Western Digital and SanDisk rose, and Micron rose 2.75%. Among semiconductor giants, AMD led the gains, while Nvidia and Broadcom pulled back. In the optical communications camp, most stocks closed in the red. Mavell Technology led with gains of more than 4%. Crypto-related companies, meanwhile, were initially green across the board before turning, with declines of more than two percentage points for Strategy, Coinbase, and Circle.
Although Bitcoin’s recent rebound has approached 45%, the foundation for its upward move is not solid. Data shows market liquidity remains sluggish; spot-buying follow-through is insufficient. The accumulated difference in成交量 remains in a neutral range, indicating that this rally has been driven more by futures-side funding than by spot demand. At the same time, net stablecoin inflows via CEX channels have clearly cooled off. For example, Binance’s stablecoin reserves have fallen by roughly $7.0 billion from their peak. With a lack of sustained incremental capital, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to continue straight up. In terms of both market action and technicals, the #BTC trend still appears relatively optimistic. The $80,000 round-number level is the key battleground for bulls and bears. Only if it can break upward with effective volume would it indicate liquidity truly returning and give the行情 further momentum; otherwise, that level may see repeated back-and-forth. In the short term, investors should remain alert to the risk of a high-and-fall reversal.

【September 9 Global Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、Apple’s pre-event preview: #iPhone stock price rises, the foldable screen takes the spotlight at the end, the new CEO faces a major test in his first appearance;
2、In US pre-market trading, semiconductor, memory, and optical communication sectors all rise, with #NOK up nearly 5%;
3、Oil prices are approaching 100 USD, with strategists warning that if the Federal Reserve raises rates—or repeats the mistakes of 2008—serious concerns could follow;
4、Yilihua: Bull market conditions look set to continue; this pullback is only a normal adjustment.

Pre-market sentiment for US tech sectors is relatively warm. The semiconductor, memory, and optical communication sectors are all seeing mild strength, with NOK up nearly 5%. The new products that Apple is scheduled to release in the early hours of September 10 have become the market focus: the foldable iPhone is expected to start at $2,000, equipped with the A20 Pro chip and Apple’s own modem. Maturing technologies in the supply chain—such as fold marks—are positively driving this new product category toward real-world launch. At the same time, this event also serves as a test of the new CEO’s leadership capabilities. On the other side, oil prices nearing the $100 threshold has sparked concerns about Fed policy: if it mistakenly interprets energy shocks as demand overheating and raises rates, it could reenact a 2008-style policy failure.

The macro and tech themes impact the crypto market in a relatively indirect way; the key driver remains how Fed rate decisions and inflation data perturb the pricing of risk assets. Currently, #BTC is trading in the high range of 76,000 to 82,000 USD, which is normal consolidation during an uptrend. Resistance sits around 82,000 USD, and the long-side structure has not been broken. If the market can hold within the pullback range—and move in sync with liquidity and tech sentiment—then the upward advance rhythm may continue. In the short term, it may be best to observe and watch the direction of the daily-timeframe center.

【September 8 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The U.S. midterm elections may effectively serve as a “referendum” on Trump’s presidency; the Republican Party is currently facing fierce competition in both the House and the Senate;
2. Expectations of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are heating up. UBS has issued a “buy-sell list”: buy stocks on dips, and consider pullbacks in gold and others;
3. Biden’s son will launch the Meme coin LAPTOP, sparking heated discussion in the crypto community about “political Meme coins.”;
4. Iran: within “a few days,” it plans to reach a deal with Oman on a transit/navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz.

In August, the U.S. added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations of 55,000, marking the strongest performance since March. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.1%. After the data was released, market pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed hike in September rose to around 60%. UBS notes that whether tightening is driven by stronger economic growth or by persistent inflation will have very different effects on portfolios. UBS continues to be bullish on stocks, favoring themes such as AI, power/energy resources, and longevity. In the bond segment, it shifts toward higher value-for-money high-quality intermediate-to-longer-term issues.
Under a backdrop of a strong economy combined with tightening, UBS expects the U.S. dollar may remain strong. It suggests reducing dollar exposure when the dollar strengthens. In the short term, gold is pressured by real interest rates and the dollar; it recommends positioning after pullbacks. For the crypto market, some analysis suggests that each Bitcoin new-all-time-high cycle is shortening. Based on the previous cycle estimate, the peak would be no later than February 2028, but this time the bottoming appears to arrive about 3–4 months earlier. New highs may occur as early as late Q4 2027, and in November Bitcoin has the potential to break above $126,000. If rate hikes are driven by growth rather than by stagflation pressures, a stronger dollar may temporarily suppress risk appetite. However, BTC pullbacks may happen earlier and the cycle may run faster, which in the medium term could provide a stronger revaluation and upside elasticity.

【September 4 — Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#非农 will be revealed tonight: The market expects that in August, only an increase of 56,000 jobs will be added. Morgan Chase warns that the S&P 500 could swing sharply with the data;
2、Vance: Does not define the U.S.-Iran conflict as “war,” and once again urges the Fed to cut rates;
3、#FOMC 9: The probability of a rate hike in September has fallen back to 50%. Bitcoin surged above $82,000 at one point this morning;
4、U.S. stock futures ended higher this morning for crypto-related stocks, with MSTR up more than 17% and CRCL up 16.44%.

Tonight, the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data will be released. The market expects about 56,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate steady around 4.1%. Institutions generally believe the labor market is showing a pattern of “steady yet slightly weakening.” Softer data may not immediately drive a policy shift, and decision-makers’ focus remains on the direction of inflation. Morgan Chase’s scenario analysis suggests that if employment comes in significantly above expectations, U.S. stocks may come under pressure and fall; otherwise, they could rebound modestly—showing that this data has become a key variable affecting September policy expectations. Recent remarks from multiple Fed officials have been relatively mild, implying that employment is not yet the main battleground for decisions. However, before inflation effectively cools, the possibility of tightening policy still remains.
For the crypto market, the NFP outcome will transmit via the dollar trend and risk appetite to #BTC . After ETF flows saw their first net outflow earlier, the coin price did not fall—instead it rose and broke above $82,000, showing some short-term resilience. Jiang Zhuoer cleared out at high levels and turned to shorting, believing the consolidation period is likely too brief and the upside momentum is insufficient. The script they provided indicates that the market may first pull back into the $70,000 to $72,000 range, then consolidate and build energy before another move. In terms of trading, one should closely watch the resistance band around $83,000 to $84,000, using $82.3k as a key stop-loss reference, and time buys and sells carefully as the data and policy expectations repeatedly adjust.

[September 2 Global Market News and Data Analysis]
1. Watch for a wave of global sovereign bond sell-offs: Bessent’s “firefighting” efforts have come to nothing; U.S. Treasury yields have broadly rebounded, and bond markets across multiple countries have been repriced.
2. Escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict again boosts the two oil benchmarks. WTI crude and Brent crude both hit their highest levels in nearly five weeks.
3. Ahead of the U.S. stock session, semiconductor, memory, and optical communications sectors broadly fell. #CRDO dropped by more than 8%.
4. Analysis: Bitcoin demand turns negative again, and in the near term it may face another round of declines.

The U.S.-Iran conflict has intensified once more. Mutual attacks have raised the risk of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. #WTI and Brent crude both rose by about 4.8% and 4.7% over the past 24 hours, respectively, reaching their highest levels in nearly five weeks. At the same time, global bond markets are under pressure: the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has returned to 5.27%, and the 10-year yield has hit the highest level since January 2025. Japan’s 10-year yield has risen above 3% for the first time since 1996. Bessent’s expanded buyback program’s soothing effect faded quickly, and market pricing for the likelihood of a rate hike by the Fed this month has already reached about 70%.

Oil prices and long-end interest rates moving up in tandem are squeezing the space for monetary policy easing. This is pushing up inflation and financing-cost expectations, putting broad pressure on global risk assets. For the crypto market, this forms a typical bearish combination—tighter liquidity, a pullback in risk appetite, and capital shifting toward safe havens. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $236.5 million in a single day. Combined with #BTC turning negative in terms of apparent demand, and with short-term holders continuing to lock in profits, institutional sentiment has clearly weakened and the price structure has become more sluggish. If geopolitical and rate pressures persist, BTC faces the risk of further near-term pullbacks. However, the market’s direction is not yet fully clear—investors should hold positions cautiously and watch whether demand can stabilize.

【September 1 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. stocks closed higher in storage and the Neocloud segment led the way: #GLXY rose nearly 6%, SanDisk gained 5.5%. Crypto-related stocks saw broad-based gains, with Circle up nearly 10%;
2. Trump has boasted that U.S. GDP growth could reach 20%, and he calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates;
3. So far this year, the number of days that 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have closed above 5% has hit the highest level since 2006;
4. The probability for #fomc 9 to raise rates by 25 basis points is currently reported at 67.9%.

All three major U.S. stock indexes fell in sync. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each retreated by about 0.7%, 0.33%, and 0.12%, respectively, leaving the market under overall pressure. Within sectors, performance was mixed: storage and semiconductors were relatively strong—SanDisk, Micron, and others led the rally—while Western Digital and Seagate weakened. Neocloud and optical communications segments showed clear internal divergence. In contrast to the broader market, crypto-coin related stocks generally rose across the board; Circle, BitMine, Coinbase, and others posted top gains. Meanwhile, the number of days that 30-year Treasury yields stay above 5% reached a record since 2006. Fiscal deficits and a wave of corporate bond issuance keep the market cautious about the outlook for the coming weeks.
From the crypto market perspective, amid tighter macro conditions, #BTC still managed to hold above $77.1k. Although hawkish remarks pulled it back from the $81k peak, buying interest was driven more by spot and ETFs rather than leverage. Last week, net inflows into BTC spot ETFs totaled nearly $1 billion, and Ethereum products also registered consecutive days of net inflows, suggesting stronger fund resilience. However, PCE inflation and the high deficit have lifted the probability of September rate hikes to 57%. Elevated yields are likely to continue suppressing risk appetite, limiting near-term upside. If the subsequent inflow momentum can be sustained, that would indicate crypto market demand remains solid.