【October 12 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Key events and data to watch this week: U.S. September CPI and remarks by Fed Chair Warsh;
2. Goldman Sachs: Raised its December Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel, while maintaining its forecast for an average price of $80 in 2027;
3. Analysis: A market downturn combined with BTC distribution is not necessarily alarming; potential selling pressure can be released early during the transition from a bear market to a bull market;
4. Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had reached an “energy ceasefire,” effective immediately. Russia has not confirmed the agreement, and Zelenskyy said he was still waiting for details.
U.S. stocks fluctuated but moved higher last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining approximately 1.15% and 0.64%, respectively. Sector performance diverged markedly: defensive sectors such as food and beverage and utilities led the gains, while telecoms, semiconductors, and capital goods came under relative pressure. This week, the U.S. September CPI, PPI, and import and export price indexes will be released in succession. TSMC and ASML’s third-quarter earnings reports, as well as Apple’s smart home product launch, are also worth watching.
In the crypto market, long-term holders (LTHs) transferred around 32,000 BTC to trading platforms on October 7–8, the second-largest amount since the sharp sell-off in February this year. Around 17,200 BTC of this came from U.S. government wallets and was transferred to Coinbase Prime, largely in connection with custody consolidation or case-related asset handling, and does not necessarily indicate selling. Excluding this amount, the actual seller pressure worth watching was around 14,800 BTC, mainly from medium- and long-term holders. Historically, during transitions between bear and bull markets, daily LTH transfers of 2,000–3,000 BTC are normal, while significant surges in volume often coincide with bearish expectations. However, CDD data show that a pullback combined with a sharp rise in coin days destroyed often indicates that dormant coins are being reactivated and changing hands. Although this can create short-term selling pressure, it also prompts less committed holders to exit early, reducing resistance to a subsequent market move. The continued reactivation of long-term holdings and rising turnover are a natural part of value discovery in a bull market: older coins are released and absorbed by new capital, and thorough turnover can actually lay a stronger foundation for a longer-lasting rally. There is therefore no need to panic excessively over every instance of LTH distribution; the key is whether the market can effectively absorb these coins.
1. Key events and data to watch this week: U.S. September CPI and remarks by Fed Chair Warsh;
2. Goldman Sachs: Raised its December Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel, while maintaining its forecast for an average price of $80 in 2027;
3. Analysis: A market downturn combined with BTC distribution is not necessarily alarming; potential selling pressure can be released early during the transition from a bear market to a bull market;
4. Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had reached an “energy ceasefire,” effective immediately. Russia has not confirmed the agreement, and Zelenskyy said he was still waiting for details.
U.S. stocks fluctuated but moved higher last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining approximately 1.15% and 0.64%, respectively. Sector performance diverged markedly: defensive sectors such as food and beverage and utilities led the gains, while telecoms, semiconductors, and capital goods came under relative pressure. This week, the U.S. September CPI, PPI, and import and export price indexes will be released in succession. TSMC and ASML’s third-quarter earnings reports, as well as Apple’s smart home product launch, are also worth watching.
In the crypto market, long-term holders (LTHs) transferred around 32,000 BTC to trading platforms on October 7–8, the second-largest amount since the sharp sell-off in February this year. Around 17,200 BTC of this came from U.S. government wallets and was transferred to Coinbase Prime, largely in connection with custody consolidation or case-related asset handling, and does not necessarily indicate selling. Excluding this amount, the actual seller pressure worth watching was around 14,800 BTC, mainly from medium- and long-term holders. Historically, during transitions between bear and bull markets, daily LTH transfers of 2,000–3,000 BTC are normal, while significant surges in volume often coincide with bearish expectations. However, CDD data show that a pullback combined with a sharp rise in coin days destroyed often indicates that dormant coins are being reactivated and changing hands. Although this can create short-term selling pressure, it also prompts less committed holders to exit early, reducing resistance to a subsequent market move. The continued reactivation of long-term holdings and rising turnover are a natural part of value discovery in a bull market: older coins are released and absorbed by new capital, and thorough turnover can actually lay a stronger foundation for a longer-lasting rally. There is therefore no need to panic excessively over every instance of LTH distribution; the key is whether the market can effectively absorb these coins.