#amd Community Insights & Market Sentiment

Bullish

#AMD $AMDB AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) is an American multinational semiconductor company headquartered in Santa Clara, California, that designs and produces computer processors and related technologies for personal computers, gaming consoles, and data centers.tnk you

AMDB+4.42%

Felipe Brayner:

Excelente resumo, parceiro! A AMD tem jogado um papel fundamental não apenas em PCs e consoles, mas também impulsionando a infraestrutura de processamento de alto desempenho e inteligência artificial. O setor de semicondutores continua ditando o ritmo da inovação tecnológica global. Ótima partilha!SIGA ME 🇧🇷!

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rode a roller coaster over two days: It plunged 17.26% on Thursday to close at $404.40, then gapped up 9.90% on Friday and gained 11.04% to close at $449.04. It reached an intraday high of $459.80 and a low of $433.30. Trading volume on both days far exceeded the 20-day average of 27.6 million shares: 71.2 million shares on Thursday, about 2.6 times average, and 45.7 million on Friday, about 1.7 times average. Panic selling and bargain hunting collided head-on.

Start with three technical indicators. First, AMD reclaimed its 200-day moving average at $415.98: Thursday’s intraday low of $402.10 briefly broke below it, but Friday’s close finished 7.9% above the line. The 200-day moving average is the average closing price over the past 200 trading days. Markets often treat it as the dividing line between bull and bear trends, so moving back above it suggests the longer-term trend is still intact. Second, the relative strength index rose from an oversold 29.7 on Thursday to 38.4. The relative strength index measures the strength of price moves over the past 14 days; below 30 is considered oversold and above 70 overbought. At 38.4, it has moved out of oversold territory but remains below the 50 level that separates strength from weakness. Third, the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram stands at -12.76, still negative and only slightly narrower than Thursday’s -13.60. The MACD histogram tracks changes in the gap between the fast and slow moving averages. A negative reading indicates that bears have the upper hand; momentum is considered bullish only when it turns positive. The 50-day moving average at $546.81 remains overhead, about 22% above the share price. AMD still has some way to go before a reversal.

The fundamentals are not bad: In its November 3 earnings report, AMD posted third-quarter revenue of $13.38 billion, up 44.7% year over year, and earnings per share of $2.09, above expectations of $1.95. Data center revenue was $8.5 billion, up 97% year over year. Its fourth-quarter guidance was about $17 billion, and revenue growth in 2027 is expected to exceed 80%. Yet Wall Street is divided. HSBC raised its price target from $500 to $540 but maintained a Hold rating. Bank of America cut its target from $720 to $650 while maintaining a Buy rating. Stifel cited $725, and Phillip Securities sees $755. The consensus price target is $643.69. The disagreement is not about performance, but valuation: AMD trades at about 31 times forward earnings, compared with about 14 times for Nvidia and 16.5 times for Broadcom. The better the results, the more closely investors scrutinize the valuation.

Thursday’s massive selloff was driven not by earnings, but by politics: Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, and the market worried that regulation of AI data centers could tighten. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12.25%, marking its worst day since March 2020. The entire sector only caught its breath on Friday. There was also a minor development after Sunday’s close: Nvidia’s board launched an independent investigation, and money rotated overnight from Nvidia into AMD, which rose about 1.66% overnight.

Next, watch two levels. To the upside, the first hurdle is Friday’s high of $459.80. If AMD holds above it, $488.78 (Wednesday’s closing price) comes next, followed by the psychologically important $500 level. To the downside, the key support is the 200-day moving average at $415.98. If that fails, AMD could retest Thursday’s low of $402.10; below that is the $400 threshold. The pivot point is the U.S. Consumer Price Index for October, due Tuesday at 21:30 Beijing time. If inflation comes in hot and rate-hike expectations resurface, growth stocks could take another hit.

Three risks to keep in mind: First, Friday’s rebound lifted the entire sector, rather than reflecting any AMD-specific positive news, so its staying power is questionable. Second, concerns about tighter regulation have yet to be resolved, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is still down for the week. Third, a 31-times valuation is not cheap; even strong earnings must be backed up by delivery on the $17 billion fourth-quarter outlook. Technical analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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