When the market is more lively, it becomes easier for people to lose their vigilance.
Recently, Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) has risen again, and many investors have begun to believe that a large amount of capital is flowing in and that the next round of upswing may have already started.
But has history really always been like this?
Looking back at several past market cycles, it becomes clear that when OI keeps setting new highs, it does not necessarily mean the bull market will continue. Sometimes, it indicates that more and more people are starting to take on leverage—and leverage itself is a double-edged sword.
If the price keeps rising, these funds will become an important force driving the market.
However, if the price suddenly turns around, large leveraged positions are often stopped out at the same time, which tends to trigger a stampede effect and quickly magnify market volatility.
So, the rise in OI itself isn’t the risk.
The real risk is when everyone thinks it has no risk.
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#OI #风险情绪