ivanlabrie

Bullish

Bitcoin armed a quarterly trend signal this week, and the useful part is not the target. It is knowing which half of a projection to trust.

On the three month Bitstamp bar, price trades 85,826, up 46.64% on the quarter. The signal level sits at 83,324, with 33,728 below it. Crossing 83,324 is what armed it.

The trigger is already in. From here only two things undo it: the quarter closing as a down bar, or 56,500 going.
The September 30 close still matters, just not for deciding whether the signal is valid. It sets the bar's range.

The projection runs to 509,000 into October 2028.

Here is why I would trust the date more than the number, and it is on the public record. In February 2024 I published that the advance would run to roughly Q3 2025 and that returns would get worse after that. That is when it topped. In November 2023 I published that total crypto market cap would expand from 1.32 trillion to between 4.8 and 19.55 trillion. It peaked near 4.08 trillion, below even the low end of my own band.

Timing landed. The price target came in low. That has been the pattern for several cycles, so read 509,000 as the top of a range and let 56,500 do the real work.

$BTC

#Bitcoin #TrendFollowing #Quarterly #Macro

Bullish

BNB armed a quarterly trend signal this week and it did it on the same bar cluster as Bitcoin.

On the three month Binance chart, price trades 785.76, up 43.78% on the quarter. The signal level is 751.66, with 341.38 below it. Crossing 751.66 is what armed it.

The trigger is already in. From here only two things undo it: the quarter closing as a down bar, or 520 going. The
September 30 close still matters, just not for deciding whether the signal is valid. It sets the bar's range.

The projection runs to 4,476.52.

Three quarterly signals fired inside nine minutes on Monday across the majors. That clustering is the read, more than any single name.

$BNB

#BNB #TrendFollowing #Quarterly #Macro

BNB+0.04%

Bullish

Ethereum's quarterly trend signal is the one that has been working the longest, and almost nobody is framing it on the right timeframe.

On the three month Bitstamp bar, price trades 2,736.8, up 74.35% on the quarter. The signal fired back in August at 2,530.5. Where price sits against that number now is not the question, and this is the part most people get wrong: a trigger level arms a trend, it does not govern it afterwards.

1,741.8 is what governs it. That is the invalidation, it is not new, and I have published it before, because on a three month bar the invalidation is the whole risk statement. Everything between here and there is noise on this timeframe.

The projection above runs to 12,783.8, and the extended band to 89,163.7. Long horizon numbers on a long horizon chart.

$ETH

#Ethereum #TrendFollowing #Altcoins #Macro

The liquidation figure going around for today's Bitcoin move describes the move. It does not explain it.

$BTC traded at an eight-month high on Monday, +4.82% through $85,000, with an 85,248 print on Bitstamp in the 09:00 UTC hour. The session is still open, so that is not a close. Reported alongside it, $648M of short liquidations, more than $262M of them in a single hour approaching $84,000. Forced shorts amplify a move already running; they do not start one.

Look at what did not do it. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, unanimous, with the dots pencilling in no 2027 cut. On Friday the 2-year hit 4.744%, its highest intraday since July 2024, and the 10-year sat at 5.00-5.01%. An eight-month high five sessions later is the opposite of what that rates picture gives you.

Not fund demand either. The whole US spot Bitcoin ETF complex took $6.21M of net inflows for the week ending 18 September, which one table calls the smallest weekly gain in 141 weeks. That is every week since these products launched in January 2024.

Coverage points at falling oil. Whatever is bidding, it is not rates and it is not the funds.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Rates #Macro

Trade ideas, week to 9/18:

$COIN short from 9/16: stopped (with a partial), +1.08% overall

Every idea is graded on the Binance perpetual against the levels in the original post.

#TradeIdea

The SEC's tokenized-stock exemption is smaller in the order than in the headlines. Some crypto stocks rose on the news anyway.

Order 34-106402, issued 17 September, gives venues that trade tokenized US stocks through permissioned on-chain liquidity pools five years of conditional relief from registering as an exchange. The headlines skip the second exemption. Liquidity providers who fund those pools get a conditional exemption from broker-dealer registration, and that is where the capital would come from.

Then the order caps itself. Up to 75 Tier 1 symbols (S&P 500 and Russell 1000 names plus eligible ETPs) at 0.25% of average daily volume, and up to 250 Tier 2 symbols at 2.5%. No synthetic tokens, no margin, no primary issuance. The token has to carry the same rights as the share, dividends and voting included, and every trade goes public within 10 minutes.

A permission with a volume ceiling written into it is a test, not a flow. No venue is confirmed operating under it yet, and nothing in it reaches $BTC or $ETH . The day it starts to matter is the day a named firm says it will run a venue under this order.
#TokenizedStocks #SEC #RWA #Crypto

$COIN short from 9/16: stopped at 172.11, +0.00% from the 172.11 entry. A quarter was taken at 164.68 (+4.32%). Overall: +1.08%.

Graded on the Binance COINUSDT perpetual.

#TradeIdea

Fed decision today, and most of the big banks agree on one thing: Warsh probably won't say what comes next.

If they hike, Citi, JPMorgan, Nomura and UBS all expect little forward guidance. Goldman thinks he may want several inflation reports before moving again. TD reads a hike today as more tightening in the pipeline.

The hard part is the message. BofA's point: hint at more hikes and markets start pricing 100bp+, sound soft and the 2% target loses credibility. Deutsche Bank frames the cycle as taking back last year's 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to restrictive.

$BTC $ETH #Fed #FOMC #Warsh

$COIN short update. Price hit 164.68 today, 4.3% below my 172.11 entry.

I'm taking a quarter off here to lock in part of the gain and moving my stop down to entry. The rest of the trade can't turn into a loss now unless price gaps through that level.

Targets stay at 158.74 and 137.81.

Not advice, just how I'm managing the idea.

$COIN #Coinbase #TradeIdea

The crypto selling started before Tuesday's Senate vote. Nobody knew the result yet.

$BTC traded from $79,427 on Monday to $76,862 intraday Tuesday, and about $300 million of bullish crypto positions were liquidated in the final hour before the CLARITY cloture vote.

Then the bill failed to reach 60 and the move extended, down as much as 5.3% intraday to $74,910. Over the next 24 hours about $571M of bullish futures were liquidated, with $BTC and $ETH longs taking about $190M each.

Failure was the base case and had been priced for weeks. Crypto was trading with rates that day: the 20-year Treasury reopening tailed, clearing at 5.420% against a 5.400% when-issued yield. The vote only took away a possible offset to that rate move.

The bill is still alive. A motion to reconsider was entered, and the realistic next window is the lame duck, 9 Nov to 18 Dec.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ClarityAct #Macro

Short $COIN on the daily. This one's my own trade idea.

Coinbase dropped 10.1% yesterday and closed at 172.11, under the 173.49 level on my chart.

Entry: 172.11
Stop: 184.64
Target 1: 158.74
Target 2: 137.81

That's 7.3% of risk to the stop against 7.8% to the first target and 19.9% to the second. Above 184.64 the idea is dead.

Not advice, just how I'm reading the chart.

$COIN #Coinbase #COIN #TradFi #TradingIdea

The headline number in the IEA's September oil report means very little without the supply line below it.

Headline: global oil demand is forecast to fall 2.5 mb/d in 2026. Read alone, that looks like a glut coming for $CL and $BZ .

Below it: world supply averages 100.7 mb/d in 2026, down 5.7 mb/d year on year and 1.3 mb/d below last month's report. The IEA has also pushed full recovery for Middle East producers out to 2027.

Supply is falling more than twice as fast as demand. That is lost supply, with demand following it lower.

The demand line still matters. The IEA names higher fuel prices, diesel in particular, as one of the causes, and high prices eating demand is how a supply shock ends.
#Oil #IEA #Crude #Macro

CL-3.27%

BZ-2.20%

The hike on Wednesday is mostly priced. The dots aren't, and they're the first look at the committee since a hot core CPI and a jump in household inflation expectations.

$ETH is bullish on the weekly, monthly and quarterly, and the daily keeps basing under supply. 2,400 to 2,700 on ETHUSDT is a low-volume pocket from the decline: price fell through it fast and barely traded. Bulls need 2,700 back to continue. Below, support is the 2,080 to 2,385 region. The weekly uptrend holds while above 1,850, the quarterly while above 1,741.80.

$BTC is messier. The weekly uptrend from 19 August is still running and has time left. The daily downtrend got erased on 11 September, but no daily uptrend replaced it, so it's a choppy tape until one of those changes. Weekly invalidation is 63,500 on Bitstamp spot, on a weekly close. The quarterly trigger at 83,324 isn't armed, and that bar closes 30 September.

Signals only, not investment advice.