CryptoQuant Quicktake

$ETH’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has risen to approximately 0.73, its highest level within the period shown, while the price has declined to around $2,510.
From a positive perspective, the size of derivatives positions relative to ETH reserves remains elevated, suggesting that the market on Binance has yet to enter a clear contraction based on this metric. Binance continues to be a venue worth monitoring for changes in $ETH positioning and trading sentiment.
If spot buying improves, short positions could face pressure to close, helping support a recovery. However, this metric does not establish whether longs or shorts dominate; elevated leverage also makes stronger volatility in both directions more likely.
Written by Rei Researcher

1) On the monthly timeframe, the RC closed bearish for the first time in December 2025, at 1.12T, and continued this trend until July of this year, when it closed at 1.06T. This represents an approximate 5% decline, while the market price fell by around 28% over the same period.
2) In September, despite the price moving sideways, the RC formed a bullish candle. This indicates that the aggregate cost basis of the network is increasing even without a comparable appreciation in spot price. Since the bearish July close, it has risen by approximately 1.9%.
3) The last time that, after a prolonged bearish period, the RC began to recover was in January 2023, which preceded a major bullish trend that extended through 2025.
4) At the same time, the LTH-SOPR has remained mostly above 1 since mid-August, indicating that Long-Term Holders are spending coins at a profit relative to their cost basis. This upward repricing is one of the factors contributing to the recent increase in the RC.
5) On-chain data downloaded from CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

Data indicates that the funding rate for Bitcoin futures on Binance has dropped into negative territory, reaching approximately -0.00215 its lowest level since last January.
This decline reflects a notable shift in the cost of holding open positions in the futures market. Negative funding rates imply that short-position holders are paying fees to long-position holders. This suggests that short positions have become more prevalent than long positions, or that demand for short positions has recently increased.
The indicator shows a clear transition from the positive levels maintained in recent months into negative territory, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price retreat to around the $83,000 mark. The funding rate has also fallen significantly below its 30-day moving average of approximately 0.00458, signaling a marked change in the balance of trader positions within the derivatives market.
From a market perspective, the drop in the funding rate may signal growing caution among traders and increased bets on a price decline. However, negative funding does not necessarily imply a continued downtrend; the accumulation of short positions could increase the likelihood of sudden upward movements if spot demand for Bitcoin rises and short positions begin to close.
Consequently, this shift in the funding rate warrants close monitoring in the coming period, particularly to assess whether it remains in negative territory or begins to recover toward neutral levels.
Written by Arab Chain

As the crypto market experiences a short-term slump, the volume of stablecoin inflows is declining.
Stablecoin inflows, which reached $5B 2 weeks ago, have now dropped to the $3.4B level.
However, stablecoin inflows to Binance remain robust. Two weeks ago, Binance's average daily stablecoin inflow was $1.42B, and last week it was $1.25B.
This week, inflows to Binance have been $1.24B and $1.28B, showing no significant difference from previous volume. Stablecoin inflows are holding steady trend.
On the other hand, Coinbase has seen further declines, dropping from $1.12B 2 weeks ago to $0.71B last week, and to $0.68B and $0.65B this week. OKX has also experienced a significant drop in stablecoin inflows.
Binance is the only exchange demonstrating a solid flow of funds. Amidst the current market stagnation, it continues to see a steady inflow of funds.
Written by CW8900

$BTC is currently showing a downward trend. However, there is no negative data regarding demand.
Total demand remains positive. The spot demand is still in negative territory, but it has moved very close to neutral.
The current trend similar pattern seen in August, when $BTC rose from the $60k range to the $80k range. Although $BTC is showing a slight decline, demand is actually shifting toward a positive trend.
If spot demand also turns positive, a significant rally could occur.
Written by CW8900

Bitcoin’s recovery is gaining a signal beneath price: the 200-day average of Adjusted SOPR is beginning to cross above its 365-day average.
aSOPR compares the value of spent outputs with their value when created, excluding outputs younger than one hour. Above 1, spending realizes an aggregate profit; below 1, an aggregate loss.
The crossover means average spending profitability over the last 200 days is overtaking the annual average. It suggests the recent loss regime is easing and realized profitability is recovering.
The historical chart highlights comparable upward crosses in 2015, 2019, 2020 and 2023. They accompanied recoveries that extended over subsequent months, with several preceding substantial longer-term advances. Yet 2019’s rally later reversed: the pattern supports a recovery thesis without guaranteeing an uninterrupted bull market.
The current setup has an important distinction. The 200-day average is rising from its lows, while the 365-day average is still declining. Both remain just below 1, around 0.998. Relative improvement is therefore emerging before a sustained return to profitability is established on these longer horizons.
For investors, this points to a possible transition away from loss-dominated spending. It does not establish that selling volume is falling or fresh demand is accelerating. Because both averages are slow, the crossover also reflects a recovery already underway.
What to Watch
The next test is whether improving profitability is accompanied by easing seller stress and stronger demand. STH SOPR holding above 1, with pullbacks finding support near breakeven, would suggest recent buyers are maintaining profitable spending conditions.
Declining realized loss volumes during those pullbacks would reinforce the recovery thesis.
Sustained positive Apparent Demand would add evidence of supply absorption, strengthening the case that Bitcoin can withstand renewed profit-taking and extend its recovery.
Written by MorenoDV_

The Whale vs Retail Spread (%), measured using a 7-day moving average, tracks the relative gap between whale and retail activity in XRP exchange outflows.
A declining spread indicates narrowing whale dominance relative to retail participants, rather than necessarily confirming whale selling.
Between September 30 and October 8, 2026, XRP's All CEX Whale vs Retail Spread fell from 64% to 46.7%, a decline of 17.3 percentage points, or 27% in just eight days.
Over the same period, Binance's Whale vs Retail Spread dropped from 68% to 54.9%, a decrease of 13.1 percentage points, or 19.3%.
The comparison reveals a notable divergence: the spread contracted 7.7 percentage points more in relative terms across all exchanges than on Binance.
Despite the decline, Binance's current reading of 54.9% remains 8.2 percentage points above the All CEX reading of 46.7%, indicating that the whale-retail gap remains wider on Binance than across exchanges collectively.
This shift coincides with XRP trading near $1.415, highlighting a rapid change in the relative composition of exchange outflows during a period of price weakness.
The key development is not simply declining whale dominance, but its uneven pace across exchanges, with Binance maintaining a higher spread despite the broader contraction.
Written by Amr Taha

Ethereum whales are showing neither clear profit taking nor heavy accumulation. Investors’ total unrealized profit and loss appear to be roughly balanced. So, on its own, the chart paints a picture of indecision and possible consolidation.
According to the chart, whales are generally not sitting on large, accumulated unrealized gains. Limited selling pressure may reduce the incentive to sell, but that doesn’t guarantee that investors who aren’t in significant profit will hold on to their positions.
The SOPR data suggests that spent coins are changing hands at around breakeven on average. In other words, there is no pattern pointing to sustained profitable selling or an increase in loss making sales.
The recent deposit ratio to Binance may raise the possibility of supply being prepared for sale.
No sustained, strong increase in activity is evident among ETH addresses lately; therefore, there is no clear increase in network usage.
We see whale stablecoin movements occasionally becoming sharper. This could indicate potential buying liquidity.
The available data suggests that market participants are acting cautiously. For whales, the chart currently points more to balance and cautious waiting than to a strong directional signal. Markets need a strong signal for a breakout.
Written by PelinayPA

Bitcoin open interest across all exchanges has fallen from around $29B on September 22 to $25.8B, which is roughly a 12% decline. At the same time BTC has managed to stay above $80K. Most of this drop happened within about a week, and open interest has been moving in the $25–26B range since then.
I see this as a leverage reset rather than a liquidation event. Open interest has come down without a similar drop in price, which is generally a healthier setup. It is also still well below last October’s peak of around $45B. In dollar terms, OI is only about 10% above its August level, while BTC is up more than 25%. So far, this rally has not been driven by a large increase in leverage.
Exchange flows support that view. The 7-day EMA of netflow is negative, with net outflows of around 19K BTC on September 22 and 14K BTC on October 6. When coins leave exchanges, there is less BTC immediately available for selling. That said, exchange outflows can also come from custody movements or exchange-specific activity, so I would not read too much into any single flow figure.
SOPR is currently at 1.006 and has stayed roughly between 1.00 and 1.02 since late August. That tells us holders are still realizing small profits, but we are not seeing the kind of sharp moves that usually come with heavy selling. There have been no meaningful breaks below 1 and no spikes above roughly 1.03.
Overall, I think this is a healthier positioning setup, but I would not take it as proof of new demand yet. What matters next is whether open interest starts rising gradually with price instead of jumping sharply, and whether exchange netflows remain negative.
Written by YavuzAkbay

Data indicates that the monthly trading volume of Bitcoin futures across exchanges rose to a three-month high last September, signaling a strong resurgence in activity in the derivatives market. This increase reflects a notable rise in the volume of traded positions and contracts, as traders continue to utilize futures markets to manage their positions and capitalize on Bitcoin price movements.
Binance led the list of exchanges in terms of Bitcoin futures trading volume, recording a total of approximately $454.4 billion and capturing the largest share of activity during the month. OKX ranked second with a volume of about $190.9 billion, while Bybit took third place with a volume of approximately $146.6 billion.
According to the latest data, total monthly trading volume reached approximately $1.1 trillion, surpassing the levels recorded in the previous two months and indicating a clear uptick in trader activity compared with the recent past.
This distribution highlights the continued dominance of major exchanges in the derivatives market, with the top three platforms accounting for a significant portion of total trading activity. However, the rise in futures volume does not necessarily imply a bullish or bearish market trend, as trading volume measures activity rather than the directional bias of positions.
Consequently, the trading volume reaching a three-month high reflects a strong resurgence in activity and liquidity in the Bitcoin futures market, making open interest trends and funding rates crucial factors in determining whether this activity is driven by an increase in leveraged positions or merely a rise in short-term trading activity.
Written by Arab Chain

Tracking the change in supply in loss versus supply in profit is a useful way to gauge the market's broader trend.
At the bottom of every downtrend cycle so far, the loss ratio and the profit ratio have kissed, and as the market shifted into an uptrend cycle, the two lines moved apart again.
This time is no different.
One difference is that in past bottoms Bitcoin fell below its Realized Price, whereas this time the drawdown ended at a relatively shallow level.
Still, given the overall picture, it is reasonable to view the market as currently in the process of turning into an uptrend cycle.
Written by Crypto Dan

Binance's exchange supply ratio, the share of all BTC held on Binance, fell 1.3% over the 30 days to October 5, its steepest 30-day drop since August 3. On the same day, our Binance brake signal read −0.84, far below its 1.5 trigger, and it has been off since September 8. A simple SOPR rule has held BTC since August 8, and BTC has traded above its 200-day average since August 19.
The Fed's September meeting minutes come out on Wednesday, October 7, and September CPI follows on October 14. Either could quickly change rate expectations. One candidate explanation, unverified: more BTC is being withdrawn from Binance than deposited, possibly into self-custody, leaving fewer coins on the exchange ready to sell.
The rule: hold BTC when SOPR's 7-day average is above its 180-day average, otherwise hold cash. The Binance brake moves the rule to cash only when Binance's supply ratio rises unusually fast over 30 days, which means coins are piling onto the exchange. All settings were fixed using data from before October 2024.
Over the past two years, the brake was active on only 34 days (about 5%), across six pauses. BTC fell during all six. The largest drops were July 27 to August 1, 2025 (−5.8%) and August 13–14, 2025 (−4.8%). Sitting out those days raised the rule's return from +53.1% to +79.2%, cut its max drawdown from −36.5% to −26.5%, and lifted its winning trades from 38% to 53%. Buy-and-hold returned +38.1% with a −53.1% drawdown. Over the past year, the brake turned a small loss (−1.6%) into a small gain (+1.1%), while BTC fell 30.6%.
Six pauses is a small sample, and four of them avoided drops smaller than 2.5%.
For now, the clearest reading is that BTC is leaving Binance rather than piling onto it, and in the backtest that is the setup in which the SOPR rule stayed invested.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Price is back near $2.5K. Open interest is still 30% below where it sat the last time ETH traded here. That gap is the whole story.
Price/OI divergence worth flagging on ETH right now. Open interest sits at $13.9B, down roughly 30% from the ~$20B peak set in mid-2025, while spot price has already recovered to $2.5K, close to where it traded during that same OI peak.
The historical pattern on this chart is consistent: every prior OI blow-off, 2021, 2024, 2025, preceded a drawdown once positioning ran ahead of price. Right now the relationship is inverted from that setup, price leading, OI lagging, which generally reads as reduced leverage risk relative to spot strength.
Watch whether OI accelerates to catch up with price from here, that convergence point is historically where this chart's prior tops formed.
Written by R3N

One week after Bitget began reopening withdrawals following its September security incident, the initial wave of outflows appears to have cooled significantly.
On September 24, Bitget detected unauthorized transfers from part of its hot-wallet infrastructure, with ~$350 million affected. Withdrawals were temporarily paused while the exchange secured its systems and investigated the incident.
Bitget responded quickly and publicly, with CEO Gracy Chen addressing the situation and the exchange providing regular updates throughout the recovery process.
Withdrawals were then reopened in phases:
- BTC: September 28
- ETH: September 29
- USDT: September 30
- All remaining crypto, fiat and P2P: October 2
The reopening initially triggered heavy withdrawals. Our tracked data shows ~$512 million in BTC withdrawals on September 28, followed by ~$168 million on September 29 and $216 million on September 30.
However, the pace quickly slowed. The outflows dropped to around $33 million on October 2, and just $5 - 7 million per day on October 3 and 4. In total, ~$1.08 billion was withdrawn between September 28 and October 5, but most of that activity was concentrated in the first few days.
So far, the data suggests the initial withdrawal rush has stabilized rather than developed into a sustained run on the exchange. Bitget’s fast communication and phased reopening appear to have helped contain the situation.
Written by maartunn

The Binance Squeeze Risk Oscillator (SMA-14) has returned above +0.80 after finding support around its zero-equilibrium level. The key development is the sequence: the previous signal moderated toward neutral, then rebuilt into the short-exhaustion zone.
Within this indicator’s framework, that rebound suggests renewed vulnerability on the short side. If Bitcoin moves higher, short sellers closing positions could add buying pressure and accelerate the advance.
The reading flags this potential; it does not establish that forced covering is already underway.
The oscillator temporarily normalized before rising again, showing that the short-exhaustion condition has re-emerged. However, this reset alone does not prove that leverage was cleared or that new shorts entered the market.
With Bitcoin consolidating around $84K–$87K, the next test is whether price can turn this renewed risk signal into an upside breakout. A move above the recent range, accompanied by short liquidations and falling open interest, would be consistent with a squeeze.
What follows would determine the quality of the move.
Historical episodes in the chart show that positive extremes do not consistently produce lasting gains. If Bitcoin remains trapped in its range or breaks lower, the renewed exhaustion signal would have failed to translate into bullish price confirmation.
For now, Binance’s oscillator is flagging a fresh short-exhaustion episode after an equilibrium reset. Upside amplification is the scenario to watch; the breakout and the demand behind it remain the confirmation.
Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading above their August 21 levels despite a sharp deterioration in Binance taker CVD, highlighting a growing divergence between derivatives positioning and price.
Bitcoin’s cumulative net taker volume fell from +$4.76B on August 21 to -$953M on October 7, a $5.71B negative swing.
Yet BTC rose from roughly $77,000 to $83,000, a gain of about 7.8%.
Open interest moved lower from $4.9B to $4.6B, down 6.1%.
Falling CVD alongside lower OI is consistent with deleveraging and reduced long exposure, while Bitcoin’s higher price shows that this selling pressure has not translated into sustained downside.
Ethereum shows a different structure.
ETH taker CVD dropped from +$1.9B to -$2.3B, a $4.2B swing, while price climbed from $2,430 to $2,570, up about 5.8%.
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum open interest increased from $3.2B to $3.4B, or 6.25%.
Falling CVD combined with rising OI is consistent with short exposure building.
The key signal is price resilience.
Both assets remain higher despite persistent taker selling.
For Ethereum, continued price strength alongside rising OI and negative CVD could increase short-squeeze , while Bitcoin appears to be absorbing deleveraging without losing its higher price structure.
Written by Amr Taha

The first factor behind Bitcoin’s recent correction is weakening on-chain spot demand. Bitcoin Apparent Demand has remained in negative territory, while the Coinbase Premium Index has also stayed mostly negative, indicating subdued buying pressure from U.S. investors.
Second, demand in the derivatives market has weakened. Since September 22, Bitcoin has remained at a similar price level, while Bitcoin Open Interest has declined by nearly 10%, from approximately $28.8B to $26.0B. This suggests that, amid subdued spot demand, futures traders have also shown limited willingness to take on additional risk.
However, the continued upward trend in Bitcoin ETF Historical Holdings is a positive sign, indicating sustained demand for Bitcoin through ETFs.
As long as the current bullish cycle remains intact, this correction could provide a medium- to long-term buying opportunity, while the $69K area, where the average cost basis of short-term investors is located, is likely to serve as a key support level.
Written by MAC_D

$BTC demand has turned positive again.
Total demand has shifted to positive territory, showing signals of spot contracting and futures growing.
While spot demand remains insufficient, the shift of total demand to positive is a affirmative signal.
A real uptrend occurs when both total demand and spot demand are positive. A real rally will begin when the green signal, which is Spot & Futures Growing state, appears.
$BTC is still in the process of demand recovery.
Written by CW8900

Around Sep 20, BTC pushed from ~$81K to ~$86K, and market breadth expanded with it. At that time, around 80% of my tracked coins were closing above their daily open.
It wasn't the only one moving; most alts were moving with it.
For now, BTC is still trading above $80K, but breadth has fallen back toward 25 - 60% on many days. That's a pretty clear shift in market structure.
For this chart, I define market breadth as:
# of coins with Close > Open / # of available coins × 100
With 70 coins:
- 70/70 = 100%
- 35/70 = 50%
- 7/70 = 10%
- 0/70 = 0%
So when you see breadth suddenly hit 0% or get extremely low, it simply means almost none of the tracked coins finished the day above their open.
So far, BTC is still strong, but the move is becoming less broad.
Tracked coins (72):
ETH, OMG, BNB, NEO, BAT, QTUM, ADA, XRP, EOS, IOTA, XLM, TRX, ETC, VET, LINK, HOT, FET, ZRX, ZEC, DASH, THETA, ENJ, MATIC, ATOM, TFUEL, ONE, FTM, MKR, ALGO, DOGE, ANKR, CHZ, XTZ, RVN, HBAR, STX, IOTX, BCH, OGN, BNT, KNC, COMP, SNX, YFI, DCR, MANA, SOL, SAND, CRV, DOT, NMR, SUSHI, STORJ, UMA, EGLD, RUNE, KSM, UNI, AVAX, AAVE, NEAR, FIL, AXS, ROSE, SKL, GRT, LRC, 1INCH, CELO, DODO, CAKE, ALICE.
Written by nocoffeenobrain

According to the CryptoQuant chart, Binance’s ERC20 stablecoin reserves remain around 42.6 billion — despite declining from a peak of over 50 billion, this figure is still significantly higher than the 10–15 billion range seen throughout much of 2024.
What stands out: after a correction lasting nearly a year, stablecoin reserves on the exchange have yet to return to their previous low levels. In my view, this suggests that substantial potential buying power remains, even as market sentiment stays cautious.
These stablecoin reserves do not mean that funds will immediately flow into $BTC or altcoins. However, if confidence and demand return, the available liquidity could support a recovery.
The next thing to watch is when potential buying power turns into actual buying pressure.
Written by Rei Researcher