CryptoQuant Quicktake

The Bitcoin Spot Exchange Inflow CDD exhibits a sustained series of elevated spikes while Derivative Exchange Inflow CDD remains locked in a clear downward trajectory, establishing a stark structural divergence between spot and leverage market activities. This persistent volatility in Spot Exchange Inflow CDD confirms that long-term, high-conviction holders are actively and continuously transferring older, dormant coins directly into spot venues to distribute their positions, which constitutes a historically validated bearish trigger for immediate price action. Conversely, the steadily diminishing Derivative Exchange Inflow CDD proves that veteran whale activity within leverage platforms is entirely suppressed, isolating the primary source of market risk exclusively to spot liquidation. Consequently, this concentrated movement of high-conviction supply into spot exchanges solidifies a decisive distribution phase led by spot sellers, completely overriding short-term trader noise and dictating unambiguous near-term downward pressure on the asset.
Written by nino

Bitcoin is starting to show the first clear sign of a deeper market clean-up.
The Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model compares the amount of UTXO blocks sitting in profit versus those sitting in loss. In simple terms, it measures how broad the market’s profit base is beneath price.
When the ratio is high, most UTXO blocks remain in profit. That usually reflects a market still carrying a large amount of unrealized gains, which also means higher distribution risk. When the ratio collapses toward the lower range, the opposite happens: profitability compresses, losses become more widespread, and the market starts moving into a more advanced reset phase.
That is what makes the current reading important.
The ratio has now dropped into a zone that has historically appeared during bottoming processes, but does not mean the bottom is already in.
For a stronger bottoming signal, the 365-day moving average still needs to fall much more aggressively. That would indicate that the long-term profit structure of the market is being properly reset, rather than simply producing a short-term oversold reading.
In other words, Bitcoin may need more pain before it can fully end this bearish phase.
Short squeezes and temporary upside moves can still happen, especially if leveraged shorts become overcrowded. But those rallies should not be confused with a structural recovery unless the broader profit/loss ratio begins to rebuild sustainably.
The main takeaway is that BTC is finally showing evidence of a meaningful internal clean-up. But if history is a guide, the market may still need to absorb more stress before the bearish phase can fully exhaust itself.
Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin Realized Dominance tracks where realized capital is concentrated between Short-Term Holders (STH, <6M) and Long-Term Holders (LTH, >6M), showing whether speculation or conviction controls the market.
Historically, Bitcoin tops form when STHs dominate realized capital. During euphoric phases, aggressive buyers enter, older coins are redistributed at higher prices, and speculative capital reaches extreme levels. This structure appeared during previous cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
Bear markets create the opposite transition. Short-term holders realize losses, their dominance declines, and capital shifts toward long-term holders with stronger conviction and lower realized prices.
Using the full historical distribution of STH Realized Dominance, three statistical zones stand out:
Above 94.8% = extreme speculative dominance (top 10% of historical observations).
Around 50% = historical equilibrium between STH and LTH control.
Below 28.7% = undervaluation zone (bottom 10% of historical observations), where LTHs historically control the majority of realized capital.
Currently, STH Realized Dominance is 27.6%, placing Bitcoin inside this historical undervaluation zone. This structure is closer to previous accumulation phases than cycle tops.
However, historical bottoms are formed through a process. In previous cycles, STH dominance continued declining as more weak hands capitulated before recovery.
The data suggests speculation has already been heavily flushed out, long-term holders are regaining control, and Bitcoin is approaching a structure historically associated with major cycle bottoms. The remaining risk is whether another capitulation phase is needed before the next accumulation cycle begins.
Written by Crazzyblockk

1) CryptoQuant: When LTH-SOPR approaches or drops below 1, long-term holders are moving coins at or near a loss - a historically rare condition that has marked generational buying opportunities.
2) The last time LTH-SOPR opened and closed below 1 on the monthly timeframe for more than three months was in October 2022. BTC: 20K.
3) What is shown are Japanese candlesticks using only the open and close, with the wicks removed to filter out noise.
Written by Facundo Fama

For those unfamiliar, UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Output) are the mechanism that verifies a BTC has only been spent once on the blockchain.
To do this, several pieces of information are recorded within it such as the date, the purchase price, the total amount…
This chart represents, as a ratio, the number of UTXOs spent in profit versus at a loss. When the ratio is high (🟣) it means profits are largely dominant, and we can see that this was the case during the tops BTC was able to reach.
👉 Today the UTXOs are telling us the opposite story. That is, the ratio has dropped to its lowest levels, which correspond to bear market phases.
💥 This is the first time this signal (🔵) has triggered since the start of the correction, demonstrating that the number of UTXOs spent at a loss is reaching significant levels, reflecting the start of a broader capitulation.
These periods have always been profitable for long-term investors.
🟢 They correspond to the moment when the majority gives up and loses interest.
It’s a process that takes time, we’re on a long timeframe, but now is the moment to pay attention to the market, not when a lot of profits are being realized.
Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin’s structure is showing a short-term recovery, but the internal quality of the move is far from clean.
Price has started to build a sequence of higher lows after the latest sell-off, suggesting that buyers are trying to stabilize the market and recover lost ground. On the surface, this looks constructive: BTC is no longer extending the downside aggressively, and the short-term structure has shifted from pure selling pressure to a more controlled rebound.
But when we look beneath price, the setup becomes much more fragile.
Binance funding rates are moving higher and spending more time in positive territory. It suggests that traders are increasingly willing to pay to stay long, meaning leveraged positioning is becoming more optimistic during the rebound.
Normally, that would be a bullish confirmation if it came alongside rising demand.
But that is not what the taker buy volume is showing.
Taker buy volume, a proxy for aggressive buyers crossing the spread and lifting offers at market, is trending clearly lower during the same period. In other words, while price is grinding higher and funding is becoming more bullish, the actual aggressive buying pressure behind the move is fading.
That divergence is the key signal.
A healthy intraday recovery usually needs confirmation from rising taker buy volume. It shows that buyers are not only defending dips, but actively chasing price higher. Here, the opposite is happening: price is improving, leverage is leaning long, but aggressive demand is weakening.
This creates a market structure that is vulnerable to sharp reversals.
Why? Because when funding rises without spot/taker demand confirmation, the move becomes increasingly dependent on leveraged longs rather than organic buying. Leverage can push price temporarily, but without real demand underneath, the structure becomes easier to unwind.
This is not a strong continuation setup yet.
Written by MorenoDV_

Although the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Binance remains above 1, which is typically considered a bullish signal, the price is failing to reflect the same strength. This suggests that buying pressure is not strong enough to push ETH higher. Large sellers continue absorbing incoming buy orders, while genuine capital inflows into the spot market remain weak.
Meanwhile, the Fund Price has been trending lower since peaking in April. This indicates that appetite for long positions in the derivatives market is fading, and leveraged traders are reducing their exposure. The simultaneous decline in both the Fund Price and ETH price reinforces the ongoing bearish trend.
Despite the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio rising to 1.13, ETH has shown only a limited reaction. Under normal market conditions, such a reading would be expected to support a stronger price recovery. Instead, the muted response suggests that sell orders continue to outweigh aggressive buying, with whales likely using short-term rallies as opportunities to distribute their holdings. This type of divergence is more commonly associated with the continuation of a downtrend than the beginning of a sustained recovery.
From a technical perspective, ETH continues to form lower highs, while new lows keep developing. This confirms that the broader bearish structure remains intact, and there is still no sign of strong spot demand.
Overall, the probability of further downside remains higher than the likelihood of a sustained recovery. Unless the Fund Price begins to recover and ETH breaks its current downtrend, recent buying activity is more likely to represent a short term relief rally rather than the start of a new uptrend. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio staying above 1 may therefore be interpreted as a dead cat bounce rather than a genuine bullish reversal.
Written by PelinayPA

Although the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Binance remains above 1, which is typically considered a bullish signal, the price is failing to reflect the same strength. This suggests that buying pressure is not strong enough to push ETH higher. Large sellers continue absorbing incoming buy orders, while genuine capital inflows into the spot market remain weak.
Meanwhile, the Fund Price has been trending lower since peaking in April. This indicates that appetite for long positions in the derivatives market is fading, and leveraged traders are reducing their exposure. The simultaneous decline in both the Fund Price and ETH price reinforces the ongoing bearish trend.
Despite the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio rising to 1.13, ETH has shown only a limited reaction. Under normal market conditions, such a reading would be expected to support a stronger price recovery. Instead, the muted response suggests that sell orders continue to outweigh aggressive buying, with whales likely using short-term rallies as opportunities to distribute their holdings. This type of divergence is more commonly associated with the continuation of a downtrend than the beginning of a sustained recovery.
From a technical perspective, ETH continues to form lower highs, while new lows keep developing. This confirms that the broader bearish structure remains intact, and there is still no sign of strong spot demand.
Overall, the probability of further downside remains higher than the likelihood of a sustained recovery. Unless the Fund Price begins to recover and ETH breaks its current downtrend, recent buying activity is more likely to represent a short term relief rally rather than the start of a new uptrend. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio staying above 1 may therefore be interpreted as a dead cat bounce rather than a genuine bullish reversal.
Written by PelinayPA

XRP derivatives data points to an aggressive deleveraging phase. Over the past week, long liquidations surged to nearly $3.0M—an increase of 832% versus the prior month. At the same time, Open Interest declined from approximately $1.18B to roughly $1.04B, while funding rates turned deeply negative (a -463% shift vs. the quarterly baseline).
This configuration suggests that traders positioned for upside were systematically forced out. The synchronized drop in Open Interest (-11.1% monthly) alongside negative funding indicates that leveraged long positions are being purged rather than rolled over. The market is effectively resetting its risk premium.
A notable divergence emerges in the spot vs. derivatives behavior. While derivatives show panic (long liquidations far outweighing shorts), the spot-side accumulation appears resilient. Binance reserves remained relatively stable (-0.35% weekly), suggesting holders are not rushing to deposit tokens for immediate sale despite the price weakness. This stability contrasts sharply with the violent liquidation cascades seen in the futures market.
Historically, a combination of deeply negative funding rates and exhausted long liquidations creates conditions that often precede a volatility shift. With the speculative excess being cleared, the market structure looks lighter. Fundamentally, Ripple’s recent launch of RLUSD in Japan via SBI VC Trust may provide a longer-term utility narrative. However, the immediate trend hinges on whether short-sellers begin to dominate or if the negative funding triggers a short-covering rally. Monitoring the recovery in Open Interest will be key to confirming the next directional move.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s Risk Index has continued to rise from the low-risk zone and is now moving back toward the mid-risk regime, with the index above its 90-day average.
The metric is calculated as Delta Cap relative to Market Cap, normalized by a scaling factor. In simple terms, it shows the size of Delta Cap relative to Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization.
This matters because BTC is no longer in the same low-risk regime seen earlier in the cycle. The move above the 90-day average suggests that risk momentum is strengthening, rather than just a short-term spike.
Historically, major reset phases showed higher readings. The Risk Index reached around 4.20 near the January 2015 low, around 4.39 near the December 2018 low, and roughly 3.37–3.40 during the June and November 2022 stress phases.
One important nuance is that major Risk Index peaks have formed lower highs since 2018. Since the index is normalized by Market Cap, fixed historical thresholds should not be read mechanically as BTC’s market size changes.
Key takeaway:
The Risk Index has risen above its 90-day average, but remains below prior major reset levels.
Source: CryptoQuant
Written by Zizcrypto

Something interesting is happening right now that most people are missing.
Bitcoin's Exchange Netflow is currently sitting at just 224 BTC, essentially flat. But zoom out and look at the full picture since 2010 and a clear story emerges.
What Is Exchange Netflow?
Simple. Green bars mean Bitcoin is flowing into exchanges. Red bars mean Bitcoin is flowing out. When BTC moves to exchanges it usually means people are preparing to sell. When it leaves exchanges it means people are holding and removing supply from the market.
What The Chart Actually Shows
The biggest green spike in history happened around 2014 to 2016. Massive inflows, Bitcoin was being sold heavily and price was struggling.
The most dramatic red spikes meaning massive outflows happened around 2020 and 2022. Both of those periods preceded major price recoveries.
Right now in 2026 with BTC at $60,268 the netflow is almost perfectly neutral. No panic selling into exchanges. No massive accumulation either. The market is simply waiting.
Why This Matters
When netflow stays consistently low and neutral while price holds above $60K it tells you holders are not rushing to sell. There is no distribution happening at scale. That is quietly bullish.
The danger signal would be a sudden surge of large green bars. That would mean big players moving BTC to exchanges to sell. We are not seeing that right now.
Bottom Line
The lack of exchange inflows at current prices suggests conviction among holders. Nobody is panicking. Nobody is dumping. In a market driven by fear and greed, silence from the netflow chart is actually one of the loudest signals you can get.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Zakariya Sharif
Written by Zakariya Sharif

Bitcoin is currently at $60,200 — down significantly from its $100K+ peak, yet funding rates across all exchanges remain remarkably low and near neutral.
What History Shows Us
Looking at the full chart from 2017 to 2026:
2021 bull run → Funding spiked to +0.15% → Crash followed immediately
March 2020 crash → Funding hit -0.26% (most extreme ever) → Marked the exact bottom
2022 bear market → Repeated negative spikes → Each marked local bottoms
2023 recovery → Neutral funding → BTC began its run to $100K
2026 today → Funding near zero despite price at $60K → No overleveraged longs present
Key Signal Right Now
The most important observation: BTC dropped from $100K to $60K but funding rates did NOT spike deeply negative. This means traders are not panic-shorting. The market is de-leveraging calmly — not crashing in fear.
This is historically a healthier correction than 2022 where funding went deeply negative multiple times.
Watch These Levels
Funding above +0.08% = danger, overleveraged longs
Funding below -0.05% = potential bottom signal
Current = near 0% = neutral, wait for confirmation
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Written by Zakariya Sharif

$BTC inflows to accumulation addresses have recorded massive amount for 3 consecutive days.
The strongest accumulation in $BTC history is underway. The inflows over the past three days rank among the top 1-3 all-time records.
Accumulation of an unprecedented scale is taking place at the current price level.
Retail investors engaged in massive panic selling during this decline, and whales absorbed it all.
Written by CW8900

Today’s BTC on-chain setup looks more neutral than overheated, with low leverage conditions and a mild return of positioning.
Open Interest was about $20.69B on June 27, 2026, up 1.22% from the previous day. However, it remains low within the one-year range, so this looks more like cautious position rebuilding than leverage overheating.
Funding Rate fell from 0.00580 to 0.00264 while staying positive. This suggests long-side bias remains, but the market is not showing aggressive funding pressure.
Long Term Holder SOPR, used here as a supplementary metric, was 0.666 on June 26, slightly above the previous 0.661 but still below 1. This implies long-term holder movement is still occurring at a loss on average, which points more to defensive behavior than strong distribution.
Today’s evidence leans slightly toward neutral-to-recovery rather than clear buy-side strength. This view would weaken if OI keeps rising while Funding spikes again, or if Exchange Netflow later confirms repeated exchange inflows.
Tomorrow, the key checks are Exchange Netflow direction, repeated whale movement, Funding, Open Interest growth, and whether leverage starts overheating.
Written by CoinNiel

BTC trades near $60,000 after bouncing from $58,000.
Core thesis: not a traditional bear market, but a bottoming phase within a compressed cycle — the top wasn't hot enough to require the deep cleansing of 2018 or 2022.
Key readings:
MVRV 1.12 — near historical cycle-low territory, but bottom unconfirmed. This cycle's ATH (~$125k) carried a far lower MVRV peak than prior tops (3–4x), meaning less downside work is needed — a signature of cycle compression via institutionalization and ETF flows.
LTH MVRV 1.29 vs STH MVRV 0.84 — gap of 0.45 remains wide. Convergence of these two has preceded every major cycle bottom (2015, 2019, 2022). Not yet closed — the clearest signal a durable bottom is unconfirmed.
Realized Price ~$53,324 — aggregate cost basis ~12% below spot. A break here means the average holder goes underwater for the first time this cycle.
365-day MA ~$91k — decisively broken. Historically the bull/bear divide; once lost, extended below-MA consolidation always followed.
Assessment: Resembles months after Jan 2022's 365MA break — sideways chop until an external shock (LUNA) forced the final leg. Absent a blow-up, base case is slow grind toward $53k.
Watch for bottom confirmation: STH MVRV ~0.7 + MVRV testing 1.0 + LTH/STH convergence. Tail risks: MSTR mNAV pressure, ETF outflows, macro rates.
Written by Sunny Mom

"Has Bitcoin finally bottomed?"
This is the question dominating today's crypto market.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently suggested that the answer may still be no. His view is based on Realized Price, an on-chain metric representing the average acquisition cost of all circulating Bitcoin based on the last on-chain transaction.
Historically, Bitcoin's major bear-market bottoms have formed only after the market price approached or briefly fell below the Realized Price. This occurred during the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycles, when widespread unrealized losses marked the final stage of market capitulation.
Although Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its 2025 highs, it still remains above its Realized Price. From this perspective, Ki argues that the market has not yet reached a "classic" cycle bottom.
However, today's market differs significantly from previous cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, derivatives, and macroeconomic factors now play a much larger role in price discovery.
At xWIN, we view Realized Price as an essential foundation for understanding market stress, but not a standalone timing tool. We also monitor ETF flows, Coinbase Premium, Apparent Demand, stablecoin liquidity, and miner selling activity to evaluate whether fresh capital is entering the market.
As Bitcoin evolves into an institutional asset, combining on-chain data with off-chain liquidity indicators provides a more complete picture of where the market may be heading.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder SOPR (30-day average) is 0.88, below the break-even line of 1.0. It has printed below 1 on 87 of the 176 days so far in 2026, in two stretches (Feb 24 to Apr 27, then since Jun 2), the current run at 24 sessions.
📊 What this measures
Long-Term Holder SOPR tracks whether coins untouched for 6+ months are moving at a profit or a loss.
Above 1.0 = those holders sell for more than they paid. Below 1.0 = they sell at a loss.
Read the 30-day average, not the daily value: few old coins move per day, so one wallet can swing the daily reading from 0.87 to 2.67 and back. (Figure computed as a 30-day moving average on CryptoQuant's daily series.)
🔍 Why it matters
A sustained 30-day average below 1 has only appeared in the bear markets of 2015, 2018-19 and 2022-23, plus the March 2020 COVID crash.
It did not appear in 2017, 2021, 2024 or 2025. Not one bull year.
The signal holds with both a simple and an exponential 30-day average.
Valuation is already at a cycle floor: MVRV 1.14, NUPL 0.12 (both valuation gauges), BTC near $60K, about 52% below its October 2025 peak of $124,710.
⚠️ What it does NOT say
Not a price forecast. In 2023 price rose while the average stayed below 1 for 100+ days, because long-term holders' cost basis sat at the 2021 top. The metric tracks supply under water, not price direction.
Spending below cost is realization, not proof of selling on exchanges. It can be off-exchange movement too.
⏳ The takeaway
The market is watching ETF demand. The quieter signal is on the supply side: the strongest hands have spent half a year underwater. The regime stays intact while the 30-day average holds below 1; it breaks if the average closes back above 1.0 for 5+ sessions. The question is whether six months of holders underwater is late-cycle capitulation or a floor forming.
Written by thechessONCHAIN

Funding Rate data across all exchanges is rising sharply again, showing that $BTC market sentiment is starting to shift clearly toward a Long-biased state.
- The notable point is that funding has jumped back to a high positive level while $BTC price is still in a weak zone around $60K. Price has not recovered strongly yet, but derivatives traders have already started betting aggressively on a rebound scenario.
- Long positions are paying fees to maintain their positions, showing that bullish expectations are heating up.
- If price is not confirmed by spot buying pressure, the market can easily fall into a “crowded long” state, increasing the risk of a long squeeze.
- In other words, strong positive funding is a signal that sentiment is improving, but it is not enough to confirm a sustainable reversal. For $BTC, the next thing to watch is whether rising funding comes together with spot inflows and real absorption.
- If funding continues to stay positive but price fails to break key resistance zones, short-term correction risk remains. But if funding rises together with price and improving spot volume, this could be the stage where the market starts pricing in a new recovery leg.
Written by Rei Researcher

XRP fell to $1.02 on June 26, marking its lowest price since February, as leveraged buyers faced the largest long-liquidation event in more than four months.
The move accelerated after XRP dropped toward $1.07, triggering approximately $9 million in total long liquidations on June 25—the highest reading since February 5. Binance accounted for roughly half of that figure, with long liquidations on the exchange reaching $4.5 million.
The sell-off was accompanied by a notable reduction in derivatives positioning.
XRP open interest on Binance declined to around $205 million, its lowest level since March 22, indicating that the downturn forced a substantial portion of leveraged positions out of the market.
Bybit also saw XRP open interest fall to approximately $185 million, returning close to levels last recorded on June 6.
The parallel weakness across the two major derivatives venues suggests that the move was not limited to a single exchange, but reflected a broader deleveraging event in XRP markets.
With Binance open interest now at a three-month low, traders will be watching whether the reduction in leverage helps stabilize XRP near current levels—or signals further weakness if spot demand fails to return.
Written by Amr Taha

The $BTC amount inflowing to accumulation addresses since yesterday's decline has surpassed the record set the previous day.
The previous day's record was the largest inflow in Bitcoin history. However, that record was broken in just one day.
Although the market is in a state of extreme fear, whales are engaging in the strongest buying activity in history.
New history is being written day by day.
Written by CW8900