鬼族研习社

The last interest rate cut will be in 2025, which is the day after tomorrow. What to look forward to in 2026 is continuous loose economic policies, token securitization, and security tokenization, similar to everything being on-chain like gold. As long as one of these can be implemented, 2026 won't be too bad.

Looking at the previous weekly bottom performance, they generally tend to create a new low before a real reversal begins. According to this script, the main force may still create panic this month, or at the latest next month, just before the New Year, to initiate a real upward trend. So, there is no need to worry too much about this direct bottom-up surge, once it’s done, it won’t come back, and there will still be opportunities. The only fear is that when the opportunity comes, you scare yourself away.

Finally, what can cause the current bear market environment is either the collective actions of on-chain whales or the interest rate cut cycle reaching its mid to late stage. The so-called four-year cycle that once existed tends to fail more easily as it progresses. After all, the signal for the next bull market is no longer centered around BTC halving. Nowadays, even whether BTC’s production is halved or not only accounts for less than 0.1% of the entire market trading. The halving news has more of an impact on belief and formality, and its essence has little influence. The future four-year cycle will gradually fade from view, perhaps starting from this point. #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #巨鲸动向

The whale address has not seen any particularly large net outflows, and in the past couple of days, it has maintained a net inflow of around 1000+, providing a positive feedback to the price. Therefore, it's not surprising that the price could have a pattern of fluctuating upwards afterward.

Additionally, there have been quite a few positive news recently, including that ancient super whale with a particularly large capital volume, which opened a long position worth 170 million USD on-chain, with an average entry price of around 3050. This is probably one of the most aggressive moves he's made recently, with the last being during the flash crash and massive short-selling on October 11.

The giant whales are taking it seriously, so what reason do you have not to take it seriously? #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 #美SEC代币化股票交易计划 2025.12.8《$btc》Short Essay

Has the price stopped falling? Has the adjustment been completed? Is it about to rise again?

After experiencing a rebound from yesterday's low, the probability of the price stopping its decline and turning to an upward trend is relatively high. If it can break through and stabilize around 92000 today, then it can basically be seen as a rising trend. However, I believe that the current critical resistance zone【92000-92600】is likely to pose some obstacles to the price. But does this mean that one can short here? My suggestion is that if there are obvious bearish signals, then shorting can be considered. If not, then do not act. One cannot force a position here, as the breakthrough or lack thereof depends on the intentions of the main players. Currently, the bulls are temporarily controlling the market.

If the price really encounters resistance and falls back within the range of【92000-92600】, the next support level is not deep, looking at the range of【90200-90500】, where there is support, and it offers a cost-effective opportunity for longing. However, if this range is broken down, it indicates that the bears are gaining strength, and the nature of the market may change again. If one goes long then, they must be more cautious and careful.

In summary, based on the current price behavior, I think the possibility of a false bullish signal is not very high, and the probability of an increase is quite large. Of course, if it can break through and stabilize around 92000, it would basically indicate a continuous upward trend. Even if this behavior is not completed, it leans more towards a bullish consolidation.

If the upward order is restored here, maintaining a fluctuating upward structure, then this month it is very likely to push towards 96000 and above.

Currently, the selling pressure of ETH on the exchange has almost been digested after more than a month of pullbacks. When ETH hit its lowest point of over 1300 US dollars in the middle of this year, the selling pressure significantly decreased, and the price began to soar afterwards. Will it be the same this time?\n\nHowever, we can see from the charts that the most outrageous selling pressure occurred around September this year, when the price was at its highest point. The massive selling pressure generated at that time is now not difficult to discern, mainly coming from whom? Although the selling pressure began to ease afterwards, you can observe that the area has been maintaining a relatively large situation. It wasn't until now that we saw a significant reduction in selling pressure.\n\nAlthough we cannot rule out the possibility of selling pressure surfacing again in the future, historical data shows that whenever selling pressure significantly decreases, there is usually at least one positive upward trend that follows. This can actually be understood from the basic logic of trading: price increases and decreased selling pressure are mostly synchronous. However, if the price rises while selling pressure increases, this would be considered an abnormal behavior, which may indicate that the main force is actively offloading. #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察

#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐 #BitDigital转型 Binance spot trading ratio has once again become imbalanced. The last occurrence was 8 months ago, around April or May, following the significant drop earlier this year. What does 'imbalance' mean? It means there has been a lot of large holders stepping in.

A few days ago, we also analyzed that during the days when the price hit the lowest point of 80600, whale addresses experienced a massive net inflow, continuously accumulating while the price fell, aggressively scavenging for bottom-level chips. Now, suddenly, all kinds of good news are pouring in. For example, one of the asset management giants, Vanguard, officially opened cryptocurrency trading earlier this week. Additionally, in the past couple of days, another very large giant, Charles Schwab, the largest online broker in the U.S., revealed that it will officially launch trading for BTC and ETH at the beginning of next year. Originally, these financial behemoths were quite stubborn, but after seeing BlackRock's success in managing funds steadily every year, especially since BTC has become the most profitable asset under BlackRock.

So, what this means is that good news is coming together, but more importantly, it indicates that compared to the past, the certainty of this round of market activity is much more evident. Although the increase may not match earlier times, the mainstream financial system has begun to intervene, marking that BTC is gradually integrating into real financial scenarios, and there is still ample room for future development.

Yesterday, the net change of whale addresses on the chain was a net outflow due to selling. This could mean that the rebound price has nearly reached the psychological price level of some whales, starting to offload in batches, preparing for a washout consolidation.

If today’s data still shows a net outflow, the demand for adjustment may be greater. What does that mean? It means if today’s price continues to stay high without falling, and today’s whale addresses are still in net outflow, one should be cautious. Alternatively, today may still be on the path of adjustment.

Additionally, from the spot ETF data, there was a net outflow of 14 million USD yesterday, with over 100 BTC. This amount is very small. It indicates that upward momentum is slowing down, and the current price is facing natural adjustment behavior due to a lack of liquidity.

Now is not the right time to go long; it's better to short in high positions and wait for lower positions to buy. The low buy should wait for even lower levels to enter. #比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析 #山寨季将至？

2025.12.5《$btc》Short Essay

——12.4 Short Essay<Review>——
Original Quote 1: If the price runs below the 93000 line for most of the time today, then we need to pay attention to potential adjustment risks. The key support range has come to 【91500-92000】. Does the price reaching this range mean we can go long? We can try going long with a small position. However, it might just be a rebound. Because once the price reaches this range, the risk of further decline becomes greater. But I believe the extreme adjustment position might just be the range 【90000-90500】.

Summary: Yesterday, the price ran below the 93000 line for most of the time. Last night at 10:30, it fell to the 91800 line and quickly rebounded to the 93250 line, then faced another decline. This corresponds here. Later, it adjusted to a low of 90900 in the early morning, then rebounded to a high of 92700.

——12.5 Short Essay——
The current question is, has the adjustment completed? Is it going to continue adjusting, or is it stabilizing and preparing to rise?

Personally, I believe the possibility of not having adjusted fully here is higher. I think a sign of a complete adjustment is when the price can pull back to the range mentioned yesterday 【90000-90500】, that's one. Secondly, today's rebound seems a bit average. Although I don't know if it will suddenly strengthen later, based on the current performance, it seems that the possibility of going down is higher. Additionally, my long position has been hanging in the range 【90000-90500】 for a long time. Also, quite crazily, I don't plan to set a stop loss; at most, I will prepare to do a hand for additional buying.

The above is a positive thought. But if it really can't drop anymore, the situation that allows me to find a long position again is if the price effectively breaks through the 93000 line again. At that time, I might feel that the lower positions might not be reachable, and the price is very likely to have stopped falling and stabilized, ready to sprint again. So at that time, I'll adjust my strategy again. #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

If MicroStrategy still holds its 650,000 BTC (or only sells a little) in this round of the cycle, we will not see a -65% drawdown like in 2022.

We are now about -25% from the peak, and even if we enter a bear market, the decline may be smaller, more like a wide sideways range.

BTC now has more liquidity channels, so the long-term outlook is certainly strong. #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐

Let's talk about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December. Is there still a high probability of further cuts ahead?

First of all, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will not continue indefinitely. Current interest rates are already very close to neutral. After the December cut, the current federal funds rate will drop to 3.5%~3.75%. The normal value is 3%. If there are two more cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points, that would be sufficient. In the absence of a financial crisis, 3% is the standard.

Including the December cut, the Federal Reserve has already cut rates 7 times. However, current inflation is still at 3%, which is still well above the Federal Reserve's target. Therefore, the current rate cut cycle can be said to have already entered the mid to late stage. Although there is another rate decision on January 28, 2026, the possibility of further cuts is almost nonexistent. The next potential opportunity may be during the meeting on March 18, or in April. Moreover, a lot of data will need to be considered in between.

In summary, the rise phase of the bear market cycle seems to be this time around. I think the market will be quite unfriendly throughout next year. #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 #隐私币生态普涨

#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 The upgrade expectations for Ethereum have also come to an end. What remains this month are the expectations for interest rate cuts and the next Federal Reserve chair nominee. Trump has strongly hinted that Hassett is the most likely candidate to be elected. Currently, prediction websites have put Hassett's chances of being elected at 90%, which is overwhelming. If there are no surprises and he really takes office, he may be the most crypto-friendly Federal Reserve chair in American history. Of course, being friendly is one thing; the most important question is whether he will cut interest rates quickly as Trump hopes. This is also a key factor in determining how long this small-scale bear market will last.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into banks in one go, the second-largest injection since the pandemic, even surpassing any instance during the burst of the internet bubble. Does this mean that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing is about to begin? Not necessarily. Once the Federal Reserve starts an easing policy, risk assets typically get impacted, but the U.S. stock market has responded rather flatly. This move by the Federal Reserve may precisely reflect the fact that liquidity in the entire risk market has dried up. The U.S. stock market has been soaring, investors are fervent, and stock market leverage has continuously reached new historical highs, rising to $1.13 trillion, almost in a breakneck manner. As the U.S. stock market crazily rises overall, the funds in the market gradually become exhausted, so the Federal Reserve's action feels like a welcome relief after a long drought. In short, data shows that the condition of American banks is not optimistic, and this move by the Federal Reserve is also a rescue, indirectly reflecting the gradual decline of the American economy. Therefore, short-term benefits may lead to long-term drawbacks. After all, under the condition of scarce market funds, it is insufficient to support another round of a bull market. Right now, we are relying on the fact that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

By analyzing the net change data of on-chain whale addresses, I can feel that the trading between whales should be very sufficient. The competition between bulls and bears has also been quite intense since the price rebounded from the bottom. Alternatively, due to the continuous decline in the past few weeks, after they bought in heavily, this wave has almost been completely scraped clean.

So the next point I will focus on is, for example, if there is a chance to come near $98,000, what will the big whales do first at that time?

Additionally, analyzing the data from the spot ETF, over $58 million flowed in yesterday, with over 600 BTC. Although this data is generally not much, the buying volume from BlackRock has clearly increased, marking the largest net inflow in the past half month.

Therefore, everything is looking positive; every decline is an opportunity. #加密市场观察 #以太坊市值超越Netflix #美SEC代币化股票交易计划

2025.12.4《$btc》Short Essay

——12.3 Short Essay<Review>——
Original Text 1: Pay attention to the closer support level, around 91900. If this holds, then the range【90800-91200】won't matter.

Original Text 2: If you really want to short, wait for the price to reach the major resistance range【94600-96000】before acting. Otherwise, just honestly watch the support level below.

Summary: The price dropped to a low of 91700 last night, then rose to 94150.

——12.4 Short Essay——
Now the question arises, will the price continue to rise? Or is it indicating a correction?

If the price can stabilize around 93000, then it will rise further. Where to? Naturally to the major resistance range mentioned yesterday【94600-96000】. Can we short here? The key is to look for any bearish signals. If there are, set your stop-loss accordingly. If not, take a bit more time to observe.

If for most of today, the price runs below the 93000 line, then be mindful of potential adjustment risks. The key support range below has reached【91500-92000】. Does the price reaching this range mean we can go long? You can try a small long position. However, it might only be a bounce. Because when the price reaches this range, the risk of continued decline increases. But I believe the limit for the adjustment might just be the range【90000-90500】.

Still, that saying holds true, if there's a possibility of a downward adjustment, it's an opportunity. Small dips, small buys; large dips, large buys. Main long, auxiliary short. Shorting requires relative caution. If you misplace your long position, the problem won't be very big. #币安区块链周 #ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐

This chart shows the net flow of stablecoins into exchanges. The net flow of stablecoins is at approximately $13.3 million, which, although still positive, represents a significant decline from previous levels. This means that new funds in stablecoins are not in a hurry to enter the market and are waiting on the sidelines, with indicators in a standby state. The market is waiting for a clear direction.

In the current context, how should we interpret the signals conveyed by the stablecoin flow chart? A net inflow of $13.3 million in stablecoins does not equate to capital outflow, but it is not a strong buying signal either. If stablecoin flows rebound to over $100 million, the market will gain the "fuel" for buying. Falling below zero indicates that buying interest has weakened.

The green line (30-day net inflow average) shows that in December 2024, the peak inflow of over $500 million in stablecoins coincides with Bitcoin rising above $100,000. However, after that, the speed of funds flowing into exchanges has slowed down significantly. This indicates that the $100,000 price level is still quite critical. #币安区块链周 #BitDigital转型 #山寨季将至？

This chart shows the dynamics of BTC inflows to exchanges from large holders (whales > 1K BTC). The average BTC inflow from whales to exchanges has now dropped to 1700. This is the lowest value observed throughout the entire period since 2023. The peak inflow was over 5000, coinciding with a local top and aligning with the profit-taking of large traders. The situation has now reversed, and the selling pressure from whales has fallen to a minimum. #币安区块链周 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察

Currently, the performance is quite good and strong, but due to the fact that this position has previously trapped a group of people, it has now become an important neckline in the current candlestick pattern. Breaking through this position will also be more beneficial for the bulls. However, it hasn't broken through yet, so there may be a cleaning of floating capital here. After the cleaning is complete, a decisive attack will follow. Therefore, the subsequent pullbacks are very important and also present opportunities, so make sure to seize them. #币安区块链周 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

Currently, we are in the mid-term of a monetary easing cycle, which is a scenario of wide fluctuations. The initial bearish phase has begun, but the deep bearish phase has not yet arrived. It is advisable to buy low and sell high within this large range, and this strategy will suffice for the next few months. The space below is quite limited; if this month provides another opportunity to see the '7' digit, it is bold to buy. #币安区块链周 #加密市场观察

#币安区块链周 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 The exact reason for the market surge:

WINTERMUTE purchased 8,577.
BINANCE purchased 7,658.
Whale wallet bought 6,610.
Coinbase bought 5,860.
BitMEX bought 5,818.
Bitfinex bought 5,778.

Isn't this organized manipulation?

Here are a few key messages that have been optimistic in the market over the past couple of days.

① The crisis of the strategy company Strategy wanting to sell BTC has been eliminated. On December 1, it announced the establishment of a cash reserve of $140 million through the sale of its own stock for fundraising. Additionally, their stock has rebounded slightly by about 15% over the past three days, although it is still down 60% from its peak.

② Also on December 2, there was another message regarding who will be the new candidate for the Federal Reserve chairman. Just in a week, the probability of Kevin Hassett has risen from 40% to the current 86%, while the second candidate, Kevin Warsh, is only at 8%. The suspense will remain until after Christmas, as Trump stated that he might announce the new Federal Reserve chairman candidate "early next year."

The market expects that the upcoming dovish + Crypto-friendly chairman can bring some exciting good news, thus rising a bit, even returning to the high point from a few days ago when there was a major crash.

Additionally, the current probability of a rate cut in December has reached 93%, while in January 2026 it stands at 26%.

Yesterday, whales sold over 1,000, and today over 100 (of course, this number is not yet completely finished), but currently, the price is not falling but rising, so I believe that the main players are shaking the market and washing out positions. Coupled with today's price behavior, it basically follows the rhythm of washing out positions, so it is highly likely that the market will restore an upward trend in the future.

In the content I published yesterday, I clearly emphasized my viewpoint twice. Although the drop is indeed fierce and frightening, I lean more towards the idea of shaking the market and washing out positions. I have also expressed my reasons, two points: speculation on interest rate cuts and speculation on the next Federal Reserve chairman. This is the support from the news side. Meanwhile, regarding price behavior, I also clearly stated last week that it is very likely to be a stage bottom; even if it is not the bottom, it is approaching the bottom. Moreover, the process of a second bottom is an opportunity for us to start laying out positions in batches. Even if the current price behavior is a trap to lure buyers and then it drops again, my viewpoint remains the same, which is relatively at the bottom. Every subsequent drop is an opportunity! #加密市场回调 #加密市场观察 #以太坊市值超越Netflix

2025.12.2《$btc》Short Essay

——12.1 Short Essay<Review>——
Original Quote 1: The effective resistance zone above is 【86700-87000】. If the price can rebound from an oversold condition today, consider positioning your short order in this range. Unless it cannot be reached.
Original Quote 2: We are now in the process of a second bottoming, which is also the process of potential opportunities being born. The target position for the second bottom is in the range of 【82800-84000】.
Summary: Yesterday afternoon at 5 PM, the price rebounded to the 86900 line at its highest before falling, reaching a low of 83800 before rebounding to the present, with the current price at the 87000 line.

——12.2 Short Essay——
① During the rebound, the strength is average and not strong. A breakthrough at the 87600 line looks for the 88300 line as the target position for the rebound.
② The price will likely retest the support zone 【82800-84000】 once more. If it holds, the second bottom will be successful. If it cannot hold, it will continue to fall, looking down to the 80000 line, with the range 【73000-80000】, which will give rise to greater opportunities.
③ If the price breaks through and stabilizes at the 89000 line, it basically declares the end of the second bottom, and the price will likely restore an upward order, showing a fluctuating upward trend.

What will I do? First, every trade action I take will be accompanied by a stop loss. Under this premise, when the price approaches the range 【88300-89000】, I will look for high short opportunities here. However, if the price begins to fall from the current 87000 line without rising, I will observe low long opportunities at 【85000-85500】. Due to the short-term bias towards bearishness today, I will be more cautious on the low long side. When the price falls quickly and sharply, it may be wise to look for trading opportunities on the right side; do not dive in headfirst. #加密市场回调 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察