The last interest rate cut will be in 2025, which is the day after tomorrow. What to look forward to in 2026 is continuous loose economic policies, token securitization, and security tokenization, similar to everything being on-chain like gold. As long as one of these can be implemented, 2026 won't be too bad.

Looking at the previous weekly bottom performance, they generally tend to create a new low before a real reversal begins. According to this script, the main force may still create panic this month, or at the latest next month, just before the New Year, to initiate a real upward trend. So, there is no need to worry too much about this direct bottom-up surge, once it’s done, it won’t come back, and there will still be opportunities. The only fear is that when the opportunity comes, you scare yourself away.

Finally, what can cause the current bear market environment is either the collective actions of on-chain whales or the interest rate cut cycle reaching its mid to late stage. The so-called four-year cycle that once existed tends to fail more easily as it progresses. After all, the signal for the next bull market is no longer centered around BTC halving. Nowadays, even whether BTC’s production is halved or not only accounts for less than 0.1% of the entire market trading. The halving news has more of an impact on belief and formality, and its essence has little influence. The future four-year cycle will gradually fade from view, perhaps starting from this point. #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #巨鲸动向