#GoldAndSilverExtendGains 📈 Gold and silver: How far can the rally go?
silver (
$XAG ) rose +5% to $59.11**, gold (
$XAUT ) surpassed **$4,064. The conflict in the Middle East and industrial demand are driving the increase, but the Fed could slow it down. Will the trend hold?
🔥 Factors that keep the rally going
· Geopolitical tensions: US-Iran war, threat of a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.
· Silver: a safe haven + industry: it rises 5x more than gold due to demand in solar panels, batteries, and electronics.
· Central banks buying: in May, gold purchases increased by 10 tons (the highest since January 2025).
· Technical break: if gold closes above $4,100**, the next target is **$4,128.
⚠️ Factors that could slow it down
· The Fed and interest rates: the main headwind. If high oil prices reignite inflation, the Fed could keep rates steady or raise them.
· Weak long positions: in silver, well below historical averages. Conviction is limited.
· Projected ceilings: Kotak Securities expects a ceiling of $4,400** for gold and **$90 for silver in 2H 2026.
📊 Scenarios
Scenario Probability What would happen?
Rally continues 40% If the conflict escalates or the Fed signals a pause: gold to $4,100-$4,200, silver to $64-$68
Technical correction 35% If rates rise: gold to $3,900-$3,950
Sideways 25% If the conflict stabilizes: gold between $3,900 and $4,100
In summary: the rally can continue as long as the war remains active, but Fed policy is the real brake. If rates rise, gold and silver will correct. If the Fed signals a pause, the metals could keep moving higher. Because of its dual role, silver has more room to run than gold.
Do you think the war will intensify or that the truce will hold firm? 👇
#Tendencia #GeopoliticalUncertainty #Fed #GOLD