#iotex Community Insights & Market Sentiment

$IOTX 4 hours, one shot blasts through the sky above, and then keeps smashing all the way back down. The peak was 0.004038, and now it’s 0.002690. The gains have reverted to zero, and it’s even down by 10 points, effectively paying people back. A typical fireworks move: it goes off and then disperses.

Market signals

It started from 0.0022 and pushed up with a continuous string of green candles—more than ten—steady but not overly aggressive. Then at the 17th candle, the 4H suddenly surged on heavy volume up to 0.0024. After that, three consecutive candles exploded in volume and accelerated. At the 21st candle, the traded volume hit 15.6 billion, and the price charged straight to 0.004038. This is the peak of the whole wave and also the turning point. After that, every candle closed lower. Volume kept shrinking step by step, but the price showed no sign of stopping its decline. From the high, it’s already pulled back 33%. The trend is already broken. The ground gained by that big bullish candle the longs fired—all of it was lost within three days.

Market sentiment

Funding rate is -0.1632%, negative. This suggests the shorts are paying the longs. Yet the price still keeps falling. This means it’s not that the shorts are dumping; it’s the longs who are fleeing in panic. People who chased earlier cut losses and exited; the sell pressure is coming from long positions closing, not from new active shorting. The mark price is 0.00269588 and is almost identical to the current price—no distortion illusion caused by funding rate. This kind of situation is the most grinding: longs won’t give up, but every rebound gets smashed down. Until the last batch finally surrenders.

Whale movements

Volume distribution is the clearest. Before the ramp-up phase, the total 4H trading volume from the first five candles is less than 200 million. In the breakout phase, candles 21 to 23—three candles—add up to more than 38 billion. Candle 21 alone took 15.6 billion. This is not volume that retail traders could produce. The main funds completed their accumulation in the 0.0026 to 0.0027 zone, then lifted the price sharply in one burst to 0.0040 for distribution. The larger the volume during the rise, the more resolute the distribution. After that, although the next three candles are still at around 1.39B, 8.5B, and 6.3B in scale, the price focus keeps shifting downward. The whales have already exited most of their positions; what’s left is retail traders stepping on each other.

Volume–price structure

In 24h, turnover is 27.46 million. Trading volume is 9.69 billion coins. VWAP is 0.002834. The current price is far below the VWAP, meaning most of today’s chips are stuck above. 4H support to watch is 0.002601, which was yesterday’s low—already tested. If it breaks, there’s no meaningful support below; it would likely go directly to find the 0.0022 initial breakout zone. The resistance level at 0.003090 is today’s intraday high. Farther away, 0.003539 and 0.003766 are dense trading zones with heavy trapped positions. If the rebound reaches these areas, it will very likely get smashed. The volume–price divergence has been confirmed: price has made new lows, but trading volume has not expanded significantly—meaning the selling pressure hasn’t fully been released.

Candlestick details

That highest 4H bullish candle at 0.004038: the real body only reaches 0.003356, and the upper wick is 0.000682—17% of the total length of the candle. The upper wick is long, meaning sell pressure near 0.0040 is extremely heavy. The next three candles are all bearish with real bodies, and there’s no decent rebound. The last 4H candle closes at 0.002690, almost right near the day’s low of about 0.002601. This type of close is called a “barefoot bearish candle.” The probability of a follow-through downside move the next day is very high. Four consecutive bearish candles, with almost no bullish engulfing in between. The bears fully dominate.

Nini’s plan

Current price: 0.002690. No bottom-buying. Just wait. I’ll act in two scenarios: 1) if the 0.002601 low breaks and the subsequent pullback confirmation fails, then short; stop-loss at 0.00275, target 0.0022. 2) if the price returns to around 0.0022 and consolidates on shrinking volume for more than 3 days, indicating selling pressure is exhausted, then try a small long position. Right now it’s stuck in the middle—neither up nor down. Watching from the sidelines is the best strategy.

Bearish bias.

#IOTX #IoTeX #DePIN

iotex

IoTeX QuicksilverPro Update

Trending Topics