$BMNR has moved 4.294% in the last 24 hours, currently hovering around $17. I took a quick look at the funding, which is at 0.00038844, indicating a positive rate, meaning the longs are paying the shorts. This figure isn't particularly shocking, but combined with an open interest (OI) of less than $40K, the market is thin as paper. It suggests that those willing to jump in now are mostly short-term players gambling on direction, with no big money establishing a bottom position.
I've been watching MU and AMD for two weeks. These traditional semiconductor stocks have been acting really out of sync lately, with NVDA's earnings expectations sucking up all the capital in the sector, leaving other tickers either struggling to keep up or preemptively dropping. $BMNR is in a bit of an awkward spot in this comparison; it's not leading the AI wave but rather feels like a forgotten backbencher. However, this lack of attention makes it somewhat interesting to me. While its peers are fixated on NVDA's performance, $BMNR 's OI is so low that there's almost no leverage buildup, indicating that the longs haven't crowded in yet. Although the positive funding theoretically suggests a bullish sentiment, in this thin market, a few hundred thousand dollars in trades can flip the rates, so we can't read it as a standard signal.
This position reminds me of those semiconductor small caps that were overlooked by the market for a quarter during the last cycle. When the leading stocks start to overflow with capital, these often become violent rebound candidates within a day or two. Not because their fundamentals are rock solid, but simply because they're light, unnoticed, and easy to push. This setup is similar, but the difference is that overall macro liquidity is much tighter than last time, so we can't just copy-paste that logic to gamble.
How would I approach this trade? I see the $17 level as an observation range rather than an entry point. If $BMNR can hold above $15.5 in the next few days and OI continues to shrink below $30K, I'd consider taking a light position on the long side, controlling my size to a level where I wouldn't mind if it blows up. If it breaks down through $15.5 on increased volume, then this setup is off the table, and I won't touch it. Conversely, while many in the market think the semiconductor chain is down to just NVDA, with everything else being trash, I don't see it that way. The flow of funds has never been linear; when everyone is packed into the leaders waiting for earnings, the chips of the edge stocks are often the cleanest.
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