美股投资young

It’s so hard to get an account going on the plaza 😩

ETH lagged all day, but in the final hour it ended up pulling ahead 👀

It’s at 2,073 now, up around 2.6% over the past 24 hours. BTC is up just 1% over the same period, still hovering around 73,900. It tested the 73,000 level several times during the day but never broke below it.

When the CPI numbers came out, ETH briefly plunged to 2,030, and it also had the most liquidations. With most of the long positions flushed out, the rebound naturally came a little easier.

The Fear & Greed Index is still at 29. I’m not reading much into a 2% bounce overnight. Whether ETH can get back above 2,100 is what to watch tomorrow.

#以太坊 #比特币 #加密市场 $ETH $BTC

With just minutes to go before the market opens, the premarket has already split into two camps.

The chip stocks are in demand: AMD is up around 7% premarket, Micron is up more than 5%, CRWV has climbed another 12% after earnings, and the Nasdaq ETF is up more than 1%.

Nobody wants the crypto stocks. $MSTR is down 3.5% premarket, $COIN is down more than 2%, and Circle is down 3%. BTC is still stuck at 73,500, nearly $2,000 below Strategy’s average purchase price.

Just a couple of days ago, they were all part of the same beta trade getting sold off. Today, it’s clear that money is selectively coming back—first into AI hardware, while crypto hasn’t joined in.

My take is pretty simple: concerns about AI capex have eased a bit, and the first place money is going is chips with earnings to back them up. Crypto will have to wait until ETF outflows stop before it gets a turn. If chip stocks rise all day tonight while BTC stays put, then the correlation between the two is really starting to loosen.

#美股 #比特币 #MSTR $BTC

Would you believe me if I said this was a setup?

Ignore the external noise and look at which factors are sustainable

and which are just short-term noise

That’s how you find a good buying opportunity

Even a quick rebound to 200 after hours right after earnings is perfectly normal
$NVDA

#英伟达 #美股 #GoldenBuyingOpportunity

Baird cut its price target for Nvidia from 500 to 200—a 60% haircut. The headline makes it sound like the stock is about to collapse.

But 200 is still 18% above yesterday’s close of 168.89. Put simply, the rating was downgraded from Outperform to Neutral; nobody is calling it a Sell.

Two numbers in the report matter more to me. One is his estimate that AI capex growth at cloud providers could fall to 40% or even lower in 2027. The other is that if H200 exports get blocked again, they may have to write down around $5 billion in inventory. Those two points are a lot more substantive than all the Huang gossip.

On the same day, Morgan Stanley removed $NVDA from its Top Picks, for a pretty funny reason: it had fallen more than 25% since their 10/2 recommendation, triggering their own stop-loss rule. The rating and price target were unchanged 😅

So today’s downgrade looks more like paperwork filed after the stock has already fallen. In premarket trading, it was actually up around 4%, near 175, lifted along with CRWV after its earnings report.

Of 64 analysts, only 3 aren’t rating it Buy now. Expectations won’t really be crushed until half of them switch to Neutral.

Crypto folks shouldn’t focus only on the gossip. A downward revision to capex growth would hurt AI cloud companies borrowing money to stockpile GPUs and miners pivoting into AI first. This whole high-beta group has basically been trading with the same money flowing in and out as BTC lately, while BTC is still hovering around 73,900. Expect a few more rounds of choppiness before earnings come out next Tuesday.

#英伟达 #美股 #比特币 $NVDA $BTC

Damn, this metric was still at 90 a month ago. Now it’s down to just 20.

I’m talking about the on-chain BTC bull market score. It was at 90 on October 13, then dropped to 20 on Monday, straight into “extreme bearish” territory. Over the same period, apparent demand contracted by 284,000 BTC over 30 days—the fastest decline since March 2025.

But there’s one detail a lot of people missed.

Daily outflows from spot BTC ETFs are getting smaller: -$430 million last Thursday, -$412 million Friday, -$201 million Monday, and -$95 million Tuesday. Outflows are still happening, but with the amount being cut in half each day, it looks more like selling pressure is drying up than accelerating.

The money hasn’t left the market either. Over the past five trading days, U.S. ETFs saw about $12 billion in inflows per day. The top 17 funds by inflows were all stock funds, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq ETFs getting the most. Put simply, it’s the same crowd selling Bitcoin to buy the dip in U.S. stocks 😅

My take: $73,200 is the most critical level in this cycle. BTC is at $73,800 now, just a few hundred bucks away. If ETF outflows keep shrinking tonight—or even turn positive—this is probably a local bottom. If $73,200 doesn’t hold, the score of 20 could go even lower.

#BTC #比特币ETF #CryptoMarket
$BTC

Nvidia reports earnings next Tuesday. I think the numbers probably won't be bad; the hard part is whether the stock price will reward good numbers.

The results are due around 4:20 p.m. Eastern, and the conference call starts at 5. Both are after the market closes. The stock's movement during the trading session that day won't tell us much; the real volatility will come after hours and at the open the next day.

#英伟达财报 #美股 #Nasdaq

ZEC plunged 13% in a day, going straight from 1,199 to 961. Now that's what a real liquidation event looks like.

BTC was only down 0.1% over 24 hours, trading sideways around 74,000. Everyone watched Bitcoin all day, but the biggest loser turned out to be a privacy coin.

Honestly, this move wasn't surprising. ZEC has been one of the strongest performers among the top 20 this year. It was just above 500 at the start of the year, then hit a closing high of 1,653 at the end of September. Now it's back down to 985, about 40% off its high. It's still up 89% year to date, while BTC is down 15.9%.

The reason for the drop is simple. Hot CPI pushed up bets on a December rate hike, and the first thing people did was sell the biggest winner. Add in a pileup of leveraged longs, and it broke below the key 1,000 mark in a single day for the first time since September 5.

What I'm more concerned about is what's happening on the other side: spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for four straight days, including another $95 million on Tuesday. Total outflows since the start of November are around $1.6 billion.

Bitcoin hasn't fallen, but that's just because no one's chasing it—not because anyone's stepping in to buy.

Let's see if ZEC can reclaim 1,000 after the U.S. market opens tonight.

#ZEC #BTC #CryptoMarket
$ZEC $BTC

Nasdaq futures are up 1.6%, while Dow futures are up just 0.17%.

That’s almost a tenfold difference. The premarket setup is pretty clear: money is chasing high-beta stocks again.

Leading the charge is CoreWeave, which was up around 16% at one point premarket. Earnings, raised full-year guidance, and a comment that it expects to turn profitable in 2028 have eased a lot of the AI jitters from the past couple of days. Nebius is up 10%, while Applied Digital and Iren are both up more than 6%. Nvidia is also up 4.5% premarket, after losing $430 billion in market cap over the past couple of days.

Honestly, I’m a little wary of this kind of rebound.

Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month yesterday, against expectations of 0.2%, and markets are pricing in a greater chance of rate hikes. The U.S. Treasury market is closed today, so there’s no signal from the bond market; stocks are just partying on their own, and with liquidity thin, moves in either direction can easily be amplified.

Iren, a stock that used to be a miner and now pitches AI computing capacity, is also rallying. Crypto traders may want to keep an eye on it. BTC is at 74,100 now, basically unchanged over the past 24 hours 👀 If U.S. tech stocks really do close near their highs tonight, whether BTC follows could be a signal. If it doesn’t, that would suggest crypto still has more selling pressure to work through.

See you at the open: 9:30 a.m. Eastern, 10:30 p.m. Beijing time.

#美股 #AI #BTC
$CRWV $NVDA $BTC

Musk once said Cybertruck would sell 250,000 units a year. In the end, the U.S. sold just over 70,000 in total over the first three years.

Last Friday, he announced on X that the Cybertruck production line at the Texas factory would shut down in the middle of next year, with the line likely to be dismantled around June or July to make room for the two-seater Cybercab.

KBB’s estimates are pretty brutal: 38,965 units sold in the U.S. in 2024, halved to 20,237 in 2025, and 11,586 in the first nine months of this year—another 28% drop.

Musk says there are so many orders they can’t keep up, and that they’ll have to refund a batch of deposits. Yeah, take that with a grain of salt.

But I actually think this is the right move. The Model S and Model X have already been discontinued this year to make way for Optimus, and now the Cybertruck is making way too. Tesla is effectively shedding its identity as a carmaker piece by piece, betting everything on robotaxis and robots.

The question is whether the market will give it that valuation right now. TSLA is still down more than 16% year to date, the worst performer among the Mag 7. After hotter-than-expected CPI, concerns about a December rate hike have resurfaced. Stocks that trade on long-term stories and have high betas are the first to get cut. It’s the same dynamic behind BTC taking a beating lately: money is pulling back across the board.

They say the Cybercab is supposed to start operating in Dallas this month. Let’s see it actually hit the road first.

#特斯拉 #美股 #Robotaxi $TSLA $BTC

Masayoshi Son paid a $9.48 billion deposit up front to secure gas turbines. Now $2.85 billion of it has gone straight down the drain.

SoftBank’s earnings report yesterday showed a net loss of 1.12 trillion yen for the quarter, roughly $7 billion. Analysts had expected a profit of 129 billion yen. They got it completely backwards.

The biggest eye-catcher was power-generation equipment for AI data centers in the U.S. One of its subsidiaries paid $9.48 billion in advance to reserve production capacity and order equipment for a site in Ohio. Later, project requirements changed and procurement plans were reshuffled. They lost $2.85 billion in nonrefundable prepayments, then took another $880 million hit from contract changes and settlements—for a total of $3.7 billion.

Damn, think about the logic here. Last year, everyone was scrambling for power and turbines so badly that they were putting money down to hold their place before the specs were even finalized. Now the first major buyer is starting to scale back its orders.

What concerns me more is the cost of financing—it more than doubled this quarter. In this AI capex game, players whose cash flow can’t keep up are already paying the interest.

Back to crypto. Lately, BTC has been moving almost in lockstep with the Nasdaq. When a shock like this hits the AI sector, risk appetite pulls back first from high-beta assets, and crypto is right in the firing line. BTC is hovering around $74,000, ETFs are still seeing outflows, and there’s no clear buyer stepping in to absorb the selling.

Who’s going to scale back their orders next?

#AI #软银 #美股 $BTC

SOL has closed down for six straight weeks. If it closes down again this week, that’ll make seven.

Let’s count: the week at the end of September closed around 122, then it was 121.6, 111.35, 104.11, 101.4, 94.53, 86.54, and now it’s just above 83. It’s also down more than 3% in the past 24 hours. From 122, that’s already a drop of over 30%.

Honestly, this kind of decline feels worse than a crash. There isn’t one particularly scary day—it’s just a little lower every week, leaving dip-buyers trapped one week at a time 🫠

Breakpoint kicks off in London this weekend, from the 15th to the 17th. As usual, a bunch of good news is likely to come out of the ecosystem. But looking back at the past few years, it’s not uncommon for people to hype up expectations before the conference and sell the news on the day.

Looking at the broader picture, BTC is still hovering around 74,000. After hotter-than-expected CPI, concerns about a Fed rate hike at its December meeting haven’t gone away, and ETFs have also seen consecutive outflows. With BTC unable to hold its ground, it’ll be tough for high-beta coins to rally independently.

82 is the level a lot of people have drawn. If it breaks, the seventh consecutive bearish weekly candle is basically confirmed.

#SOL #Solana #加密市场 $SOL $BTC

When a CEO is caught up in a scandal, the stock usually falls on the first day. But what happens a year later depends on how the company itself is doing.

I looked up a few older examples. The worst was Wynn Resorts. In late January 2018, The Wall Street Journal broke the story about CEO Steve Wynn’s sexual misconduct scandal. The stock fell 10% that day, then dropped by more than half at its lowest point over the following year. A year later, it was still down around 40%. But the broader market also plunged late that year, so you can’t blame it all on the scandal.

At HP in August 2010, CEO Mark Hurd suddenly resigned after the market closed on a Friday. The stock fell 8% the following Monday and was still down around 30% a year later.

Best Buy’s CEO resigned after a scandal in 2012. The stock fell nearly 6% that day and later dropped by almost half at its lowest point. The company’s own operations were also a mess at the time. But a year later, the stock was actually up more than 10% from before the scandal.

Boeing’s CEO was asked to resign by the board in 2005 over a relationship with a female subordinate. The stock barely moved, and a year later it was up more than 20%.

The closest comparison to this case is Amazon. Bezos’s extramarital affair became a huge story in 2019, but he didn’t leave. The stock fell just 0.2% the next day and was up 15% a year later.

Taken together, these examples suggest that scandals alone rarely bring a company down. When a stock takes a severe hit, it’s usually because the company already had problems or because the broader market happened to be plunging at the same time.

Huang hasn’t left Nvidia this time, and the board is standing by him, which is similar to the Bezos case. But the espionage allegations and independent investigation make this more complicated than the Bezos case. What happens next depends on what the investigation finds and whether the company can continue to deliver strong results.

I don’t believe Nvidia is finished just because of one scandal. $NVDA

#美股 #英伟达 #CEO scandal

Saylor sold stock last week for $284 million, but only $81.9 million went toward buying BTC.

Where did the rest go? $188 million went to buy back their own preferred stock, STRC, and $13.6 million went into cash. In other words, two-thirds of the money had nothing to do with BTC.

This wasn’t the first week they did this. Since October, Strategy has spent about $1.06 billion buying back STRC, while spending only around $220 million on crypto over the same period—nearly a 5-to-1 difference.

The reason isn’t complicated. STRC is designed to stay near its $100 par value. Saylor himself has said that if it falls below $100, they’ll buy it back; if it rises above $100, they’ll issue more. Last week it hovered in the high $99s, so the money went to propping up the price first.

The crazy part is the price. The 1,036 coins they bought last week were purchased at an average price of $79,012. BTC is now around $74,000, so they’re down more than 6% in less than a week. Their total holdings of 850,364 coins have an average cost of $75,456. The current price is already below that, leaving them with an unrealized loss of over a billion dollars.

I see this pretty simply: everyone has always treated him as the steadiest buyer in the market, the one who would step in when prices fell. But now only tens of millions of dollars are actually flowing into BTC each week, while IBIT has been seeing consecutive outflows.

I’m not so sure anymore about the idea that he’ll be there to put a floor under the price.

#比特币 #Strategy #ETF资金流 $MSTR $BTC

U.S. stocks are open as usual tonight, but the Treasury market is taking the day off.

Today, 11/11, is Veterans Day in the U.S. SIFMA recommends that bond markets close for the entire day, while stocks trade as usual, opening at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time—or 10:30 p.m. Beijing time.

And it just happens to be the first day after CPI. Last night, October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%—both a notch higher than expected. The 2-year Treasury yield shot up about 18 bps to 4.74%, and the 10-year yield climbed to around 5%.

Usually, at a time like this, everyone watches the bond market to see whether the shock has been absorbed or whether prices are still being repriced higher. But today, there’s nothing to watch 😅

Honestly, this is exactly the kind of session where moves can get amplified. Some institutional players are on holiday, liquidity is thin, and a single large order can move the market much further than usual. The S&P 500 closed at 7520.93 yesterday, with 7500 a level lots of people are watching. QQQ is also still pinned below its 200-day moving average.

Don’t expect crypto to be immune. BTC is hovering around $74,000, after dipping as low as $72,700 in the past 24 hours. It’s been tracking the Nasdaq too closely lately, so if U.S. stocks sell off at the open, crypto will probably take a hit too.

When the Treasury market opens tomorrow, if yields surge another leg higher, will tonight’s candlestick still count?

#美股 #CPI #美债 $BTC

Why is $NVDA important? Because it’s almost the demand anchor for the entire AI hardware supply chain. Whenever orders or guidance shift, production schedules and capacity expansions downstream get reshuffled. If it catches a cold, the rest of the chain often catches one too—but that’s not always the case.

#美股 #AI芯片 #NvidiaEarnings

When buying in stages, I focus on price levels, not dates. I act when the price gets there; if it doesn’t, I hold cash and wait.

#美股 #分批建仓 #Cash is king

ETH’s market cap is less than one-sixth of BTC’s, yet its liquidations over the past 24 hours were even higher than BTC’s.

As of around noon Beijing time today, roughly $724 million was liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours. ETH alone accounted for about $259 million, compared with around $204 million for BTC. Long positions made up more than 70% of liquidations for both.

Honestly, that ratio says a lot. BTC fell a little over 1%, while ETH dropped more than 2%—not an outrageous decline, but leverage is clearly concentrated in ETH. Even a small move can wipe out a whole lot of positions.

Options are telling the same story. For the period through 11/15, the one-standard-deviation price ranges implied by options are ±6% for BTC, 8.5% for ETH, 9.3% for SOL, and 9.7% for XRP. The further down you go, the more the market expects prices to swing.

So while BTC is hovering around $73,700, the ones really feeling the pain are people holding highly leveraged ETH longs. ETH is now around $2,066, after the CPI release had already knocked it down to around $2,030.

If BTC can’t hold $73,000, ETH’s liquidation chart will probably get even longer.

#以太坊 #比特币 #爆仓 $ETH $BTC