东京下小雪

Tomorrow's #ALPHA🔥 airdrop midnight next door has already announced the spot listing, this coin's founder is also the founder of ADA, I wonder if this privacy sidechain can bring vitality to $ADA , how much has everyone with ADA received?

12月8日消息，黄金股集体走低。

消息面上，北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储将公布12月利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。目前重点关注鲍威尔的前瞻指引是否重塑市场对明年利率路径的预期，这将决定金价能否摆脱区间格局、迎来新的趋势方向。

铜冠金源期货认为，贵金属价格长期上涨的逻辑依然坚实，但短期市场对于利多的定价已较为充分，也需警惕降息靴子落地后，或者鲍威尔会后降息鸽派不及预期而导致市场情绪变化出现的回调风险。

Today #ALPHA🔥 wear and tear 1.85u, trading volume 3.3u

Today is so hard to brush, after half an hour, I finally waited for $JCT to barely stabilize, and $TIMI four times the points only last for one day, be careful ⚠️.

Today's alpha active user count is 233,000, with a significant reduction, it should be around 200,000 at the bottom.

Personally, I feel that airdrops should still not disappear. Airdrops can continuously attract new blood, and Binance is the most active exchange. Therefore, project parties send airdrops to Binance for advertising, and exchanges using airdrops to attract traffic is also a good thing. However, the rules may change, just like the recent studio closures, which also allow airdrops to truly reach real individual users. Only when new people continuously enter this circle can we do better and better. Anyway, we will take it step by step; Binance Alpha is already the most conscientious airdrop distribution method for retail investors. There is no feast that does not disperse in this world; even if there are no airdrops in the future, I am still very grateful to Binance.

Below is an excerpt from He Yi's interview regarding Binance Alpha:

He Yi: Yesterday someone asked me, with so many projects launched by Binance this year, is the number of listed coins too many? I think the concepts of “more” and “less” are very subjective. I also reflected on it; last year I did a 6-hour live broadcast, and everyone scolded me for a long time. After deep reflection, I realized that many projects might not be suitable for Binance's main site. Therefore, we launched Binance Alpha as a compromise. It is a middle ground between on-chain wallets and the Binance main site, allowing more projects to experience this platform first. We will also suggest that they issue airdrop benefits to users through us. Over the past few months, this model has been effective, but as time goes on, it may no longer be applicable, and we are also looking for better solutions.

People often think that the “wealth code” for industry development or making money is fixed, but as the industry changes, our strategies are also constantly adjusting. Investment strategies are the same; they need to be flexible. At the beginning of the year, I wrote an article mentioning the issue of "carving a boat to seek a sword"; one cannot apply the profit-making methods from the previous cycle to the current cycle, as it often leads to failure. Therefore, in the process of growing together with everyone, we are also continuously improving and hope everyone can give us suggestions. Thank you!

The Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission expects that in the next two years, financial markets will migrate to blockchain technology. Let's take a look at the pros and cons of financial on-chain.

The potential advantages of on-chain financial markets include:

1. Efficiency and cost can achieve near real-time settlement, significantly reducing the manpower and time costs of clearing, reconciliation, and other intermediary processes.

2. All transaction records are immutable and traceable, greatly enhancing audit and regulatory efficiency, and reducing fraud risks.

3. Security and regulation Cryptographic technology and distributed storage make it difficult to be attacked or tampered with at a single point, improving system resilience.

Risks and challenges faced:

1. The transaction throughput (TPS) and system performance of existing blockchain technology still need to be improved to support massive financial transactions.

2. The authenticity of data before going on-chain is difficult to guarantee automatically, requiring supporting mechanisms for verification; otherwise, it will be "garbage in, garbage out."

3. The responsibility for private key management shifts to the users themselves, increasing the risk of loss or theft; new types of network attacks and threats like 51% attacks still exist.

Summary:

Overall, the migration of financial markets to blockchain primarily seeks higher efficiency, lower costs, and new business models. This is a process filled with both opportunities and risks. As the SEC Chairman stated, the responsibility of regulatory agencies is to set "common-sense guardrails" rather than stifle innovation. Currently, it appears that through continuous technological iteration and a robust regulatory framework, these security challenges are being systematically addressed and resolved.

On December 7, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year on Polymarket is currently reported at 33%, while the probability of it dropping below $80,000 is reported at 37%.

Why can we judge the market's real expectations and people's true thoughts through prediction markets?

In our daily lives, we often encounter stubborn people. For example, when discussing whether Tesla or BYD is the better company, no matter how much data is presented for comparison, as long as one side remains stubborn, saying 'I just think xx is better', the argument cannot be resolved. But what if there are stakes involved? For instance, regarding which company is performing better in terms of business growth this year, this would likely reduce a lot of debates. Therefore, we can look at the prediction market with real money at stake to see people's true thoughts and gauge the general sentiment of optimism or pessimism in the market.

However, we also need to combine this with indicators such as the fear and greed index, funding rates, and long-short ratios to understand what people in the market are really thinking. The words spoken by people in the cryptocurrency world are often unreliable.

Nonetheless, we should remain cautious. In the future, prediction markets will become increasingly popular and representative of public opinion, and there may be cases where prediction markets skew public sentiment. For example, even if xx cryptocurrency is clearly worthless, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars can enhance market expectations. For prediction markets, we should treat them as a source of information and not take everything at face value.

Attention⚠️: APT, LINEA, BounceBit and other tokens will experience a large unlock next week.

Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at midnight on December 12 Beijing time, with a circulation ratio of 0.83%, valued at approximately 19.3 million USD, the highest value;

BounceBit (BB) will unlock approximately 29.93 million tokens at 8 AM on December 9 Beijing time, with a circulation ratio of 3.42%, valued at approximately 2.7 million USD.

Linea (LINEA) will unlock approximately 1.38 billion tokens at 7 PM on December 10 Beijing time, with a circulation ratio of 6.67%, valued at approximately 11.1 million USD;

BlackRock's "2026 Global Investment Outlook" Overview

In the "2026 Global Investment Outlook" released by BlackRock on December 2, a future landscape dominated by "superpowers" like artificial intelligence, with both opportunities and risks, is depicted. The table in the image below outlines its core viewpoints and specific asset allocation recommendations, which can help you quickly grasp the key points.

Investment Insights for Us

Based on this thought-provoking outlook from BlackRock, ordinary investors can consider the following directions:

• Embrace AI, but remain cautious: AI remains a core track, but it is not advisable to blindly chase high prices. Attention can be paid to broader areas related to AI infrastructure construction, such as energy, power grids, and industry.

• Reassess your "anchor": The traditional "60/40" stock-bond balance strategy is weakening. It is necessary to consider that the role of long-term U.S. Treasuries in hedging risks in the portfolio may decline and explore other potential hedging tools.

• Shift from "diversification" to "selection": Simply investing in broad-based indices may not capture future opportunities. The high concentration of the market means that there is greater space for active stock selection and thematic investments. Consider consciously investing in thematic funds, etc., in more certain structural opportunities such as AI and energy transition.

• Focus on global opportunities: In addition to U.S. stocks, it is advisable to moderately increase attention to Japanese stocks and emerging markets that benefit from supply chain restructuring (such as India and Southeast Asian countries).

Next week's most important agenda ⚠️
At 3 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision, and half an hour later, Powell will hold a press conference.

The market expects an 84% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time, achieving a total of 75 basis points of easing this year; at the same time, the maximum predicted probability for the Federal Reserve to cut by 25 basis points on the market polymarket has reached 93%.

Although the government shutdown has led to some data being missing, the September PCE shows a slowdown in consumption and moderate inflation, while JOLTS job openings have fallen, supporting the expectation of a rate cut. However, there is a rare divergence within the Federal Reserve: at least 5 of the 12 voting members prefer to pause the rate cuts, while a few others advocate for more aggressive easing. If there are more than 3 dissenting votes this time, it will be the first time since 2019 and only the ninth time since 1990.

Currently, the market is highly focused on three major points: whether Powell can promote the rate cut with minimal dissenting votes, demonstrating leadership; whether his statements at the press conference are dovish, especially against the backdrop of weak ADP employment and a soft Beige Book; the latest dot plot and economic forecasts — if the GDP growth rate for 2025-2026 is raised but only suggests one rate cut next year, it may be seen as a hawkish signal.

This decision will not only determine the year-end trend of risk assets but will also provide key guidance for the interest rate cut path in 2026 and global central bank policies. Against the backdrop of the Trump era potentially ending Powell's term early, the degree of divergence in this meeting, the adjustment of the dot plot, and Powell's tone may become the last important policy signal during his tenure.

Will A-shares teach Wall Street a lesson?

According to data from Morgan Stanley, as of November this year, foreign long-only funds have bought approximately $10 billion worth of stocks in the mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets, reversing the $17 billion capital outflow situation for 2024.

Winnie Wu, head of Asia-Pacific equity strategy at Bank of America, stated that given the strong performance of the U.S. market, the threshold for investing in China remains high. However, she emphasized that improvements in corporate earnings could change this situation, "The next phase of the rebound in the Chinese stock market will be driven by global funds."

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas stated that there is a fundamental difference between Bitcoin and the tulip bubble.

First, let's look at the market dynamics behind the analyst's view.

The analyst's judgment is also related to some deep changes in the current Bitcoin market:

• Deepening institutionalization process: Despite market volatility, the demand for Bitcoin from institutions has not disappeared. For example, some financial institution executives pointed out that large publicly traded companies are incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheet strategies, and major financial companies (such as Charles Schwab and JPMorgan) are also preparing to launch new retail and structured products related to Bitcoin, indicating a deeper institutionalization process.

• Historical pullback perspective: When the market experiences significant pullbacks (for example, when Bitcoin's price drops from a high at the end of 2025), some analyses suggest that this aligns with typical patterns in Bitcoin's history. It is reported that in past market cycles, Bitcoin has experienced over 20 pullbacks exceeding 30%, so the recent decline can be viewed as 'normal behavior' for such a highly volatile asset.

Another voice to understand at the moment.

It is worth noting that there has always been skepticism about Bitcoin in the market, claiming similarities to the tulip bubble. These views are mainly based on:

• High price volatility: Critics believe that Bitcoin's price fluctuations are severe, making it more like a high-risk speculative asset rather than a stable store of value.

• Practicality and consensus issues: Some believe that the actual application scope of Bitcoin is still limited, and its value heavily relies on an ever-evolving market consensus, which may change in the future.

Conclusion

In summary, Bloomberg analysts believe that there is a fundamental difference between Bitcoin and the tulip bubble, mainly based on Bitcoin's technical support, algorithmically guaranteed scarcity, a mature global market structure, and long-term viability. Although risks such as high price volatility still exist, this positioning is more inclined to view Bitcoin as a new type of asset class with technological innovation rather than a purely speculative bubble.