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🔥One metric has already confirmed what most investors haven’t realized yet: 👉 Bitcoin is in a bear-market regime. 🐻📉 Our multi-year institutional dataset shows a concentration signal that has predicted every major macro reversal — and it just triggered again. If you manage capital, risk, or timing, this is the one chart you cannot ignore. 🚨 Read before the next leg unfolds. Do you think this helps you? 🤝 #加密市场观察 #BTC #TradeyAI 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
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What if ONE metric could decode Bitcoin bull & bear markets with multi-year accuracy?
🔥 What if ONE metric could decode Bitcoin bull & bear markets with multi-year accuracy? After analyzing 5 years of market data, liquidity flows, and concentration cycles, one signal stands out consistently: 👉 The Gini Coefficient — a surprisingly powerful predictor of macro trend shifts. This thread reveals how market concentration explains bull markets, bear collapses, alt seasons, and reversals weeks before price reacts. Let’s dive in. 👇
What Gini Measures & Why It Matters The Gini Coefficient is widely used in economics to measure inequality — but in crypto, it becomes a direct measurement of market concentration: •High Gini = capital is concentrated in BTC / majors (risk-off) •Low Gini = capital spreads into altcoins (risk-on) •Mid-range Gini = rotation, uncertainty, transitional phases Across cycles, Gini behaves like a sentiment sensor for capital flows — and capital flows move earlier than price.
Statistical Backbone (Why This Works) Using daily data from 2020–2025 across BTC, ETH, top-50 altcoins and total market volume, the following relationship emerges: 📉 Correlation (BTC Price vs. Gini): –0.597 This is not noise — it is a strong negative correlation on multi-year horizon. Meaning: •When Gini rises, money leaves alts → flows into BTC → macro fear •When Gini drops, liquidity spreads out → altseason dynamics → macro confidence When concentration spikes, market tops form. When concentration collapses, bottom structures form. This relationship is persistent across 3 major cycles.
Defining Market Regimes With Gini To classify market regimes objectively, we introduce Gini thresholds: 🟢 Bull Market: Gini < 0.40 Altcoins outperform, liquidity risk-on High retail participation, broad capital distribution 🟡 Sideways/Transition: 0.40 ≤ Gini ≤ 0.50 Liquidity rotates between majors ↔ alts Uncertain macro conditions; no directional conviction 🔴 Bear Market: Gini > 0.50 Flight-to-quality BTC dominance rises, altcoins bleed heavily Liquidity drains out of risk assets This framework aligns with every major reversal zone since 2020.
Historical Confirmation (Cycle-by-Cycle) Here is how Gini aligned with actual market behavior: 2020–2021 Bull Market •Gini consistently below 0.42 •Broad altcoin rallies •Heavy retail activity •BTC broke ATH multiple times 2022 Bear Market •Gini rose above 0.55 •Liquidity collapsed •Altcoins declined 70–95% •BTC dominance surged •FTX/LUNA events further spiked concentration 2023 Consolidation •Gini stabilized 0.45–0.50 •Weak alt recovery •Market accumulated slowly 2024–2025 Parabolic Advance •Gini weakened again to ~0.40 •Capital re-entered high-beta assets •BTC hit new ATH above $110k Every inflection matched Gini regime shifts.
The Most Important Insight Gini is forward-looking because concentration moves before price does. Investors pull capital into BTC when they sense risk → Gini rises → price tops follow. Investors redeploy into alts when fear recedes → Gini falls → bull runs follow. This is why Gini often turns 2–6 weeks earlier than price structure. No lagging oscillators. No hindsight bias. Just pure capital allocation behavior.
Current Market Status (Dec 2025) Here’s where it gets interesting: BTC Price: ~$87K Current Gini: 0.416, trending downward Last 30 days: •BTC price falling •Gini falling •Volume thinning This combination typically signals: “Bull exhaustion → Early Distribution → Pre-Bear Transition” This does NOT mean immediate crash — but historically, Gini decline after a euphoric rally signals that capital is leaving high-beta assets and preparing for volatility. A major regime shift may be forming.
What Traders Should Watch Next 1. If Gini breaks below 0.40 → a final altseason is possible Capital spreads, late-cycle euphoria. 2. If Gini climbs above 0.50 → prepare for macro reversal Historically, BTC drops 25–45% after entering high-concentration zones. 3. Monitor volume trends A rising Gini + declining volume = bear onset. This is the same pattern seen at tops in 2017, 2021, and mid-2024.
Final Takeaway The Gini coefficient is more than an academic idea — it’s a macro compass for the entire crypto ecosystem. If you want to understand: • When bull markets are real • When bear markets begin • When altseasons ignite • When to derisk or reposition 👉 Track Gini. It reveals what price hides.
CTA (Call to Action) If this research helped you see the market differently: Like + RT + Follow for more institutional-grade crypto analytics. All analyses are data-driven, cycle-tested, and independently modeled. Let’s navigate the next phase of the market with clarity. 🚀 #BTC
📱$WLFI Crash site! 1.91% drop ⚠️, the crypto market is in a raging fire 🔥!|December 06 TradeyAI evening market analysis Speaking of WLFI, it is like a crazy skydiver, free falling into the abyss, screaming all the way, with a 24-hour drop of 1.91%. 📉 WLFI current price $0.149, 24-hour high $0.1545, low $0.148. 📍 One sentence summary: WLFI is like a balloon trapped under a stone, unable to rise, only able to sink. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: oscillating • 1 hour: down • 4 hours: down • Daily: down 📍 Support levels $0.1461 (like an old spring bed), $0.1459 (like a weak bamboo pole), $0.1336 (like a rotten wooden bridge). 📍 Resistance levels $0.15 (like a high peak), $0.1534 (like a gasping marathon finish line), $0.1567 (like an unreachable star). 💥 Contract sentiment: The bearish force of WLFI is burning fiercely, it seems that the cold winter of the bear market will continue. 🎯 Trading advice: 【SuperTrend filter strategy】short: entry $0.1496, take profit $0.1448, stop loss $0.1532, position 10% Will WLFI's plunge continue? Will you choose to run away or buy the dip against the trend? Tell me your thoughts, and remember to like and follow our evening market analysis! #WLFI #TradeyAI
📱$PEPE Coin diving live! 3.88% crash ⚠️, a tragedy unfolds in the crypto world!|December 06, TradeyAI evening market analysis Hello everyone, I am the guide to the little theater of the crypto world, today our main character PEPE coin has shown us what "diving" means! 🏊♂️ 📉 PEPE current price $0.00000446, 24-hour high $0.00000466, low $0.00000431. 📍 In a nutshell: The performance of PEPE coin is like a diver, soaring down, and the audience sighs! 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: volatile • 1 hour: downward • 4 hours: downward • Daily: downward 📍 Support levels $0.00000442 (diving platform), $0.00000429 (pool bottom), $0.00000405 (deep sea). 📍 Resistance levels $0.00000453 (water surface), $0.00000465 (pool edge), $0.00000501 (shoreline). 💥 Contract sentiment is like the audience watching the diver enter the water, feeling regret. 🎯 Operating suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】short position: entry $0.00000448, take profit $0.00000437, stop loss $0.00000455, position 10% It seems the PEPE coin diving show is not over yet, all we can do is wait for it to surface and soar into the sky again. Do you think PEPE coin can turn around in the deep sea? Come and leave a comment below! Remember to like, comment, and share! 👇👇👇#pepe #PEPE #TradeyAI
📱$SUI plummeted 6.27%, crash site ⚠️!|December 06 TradeyAI evening market analysis" Hello everyone, I am your cryptocurrency friend TradeyAI, today we are going to talk about SUI, this crashing player. 🚗🔄 📉 SUI's performance today is like a turtle climbing a slope, difficult and hopeless. Current price $1.52, 24-hour high $1.67, low $1.51. Like a drunkard who just finished a bottle of strong liquor, clearly there is a cliff ahead, yet still insisting on moving forward. 📍 One sentence summary: Bearish, like a headless fly flailing in the air. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: Fluctuating, like in a turtle race, SUI wants to accelerate, yet is weighed down by its own heaviness. • 1 hour: Downward, like a skier sliding down a slope, gaining speed. • 4 hours: Downward, like skating on a frozen lake, going down all the way. • Daily: Fluctuating, SUI's market today is like a roller coaster, up and down making people dizzy. 📍Support levels $1.5 (like a solid stone), $1.33 (like a strong oak), $1 (like a sturdy castle). 📍Resistance levels $1.55 (like a hurdle), $1.58 (like a mountain), $1.63 (like an iron gate). 💥 Contract sentiment: Everyone is like on a roller coaster, tense yet excited. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】 Short: Entry $1.53, take profit $1.44, stop loss $1.6, position size 10% What do you think of SUI's performance? Are you bullish or bearish? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments. If you like my analysis, remember to give a thumbs up~#sui #SUI🔥 #TradeyAI
📱$ADA Dive site! 3.69% plummet⚠️, the cryptocurrency market's crash site!"|December 06 TradeyAI evening market analysis ADA today showcases the crash site, with a drop of 3.69%, becoming the "crash king" in the cryptocurrency world, as if struck off a cliff by a mighty foe, performing a "cryptocurrency version of the mountain crash story"🚗. 📉 ADA current price $0.4151, 24-hour high $0.4325, low $0.4091. 📍 One sentence summary: ADA is like a mad dog, falling uncontrollably. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: volatile • 1 hour: downtrend • 4 hours: downtrend • Daily: volatile 📍 Support level $0.4063 (edge of the cliff), $0.4061 (abyss), $0.3845 (bottomless pit). 📍 Resistance level $0.4208 (small hill), $0.4337 (high mountain), $0.4612 (Mount Everest). 💥 ADA is like an out-of-control racing car, constantly rolling over, what do you think, crypto friends? 🎯 Trading suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】short: entry $0.4168, take profit $0.4037, stop loss $0.4265, position 10% So the question arises, will ADA continue to crash? Or will it make a comeback to become the next wealth-generating cryptocurrency? Please leave your thoughts in the comments! Don't forget to like it~
📱$XRP broke through the resistance level, plummeting -1.76%⚠️, the cryptocurrency market crash scene!|December 06 TradeyAI Evening Market Analysis Hello everyone, good evening! Today's XRP is like an old cow climbing a mountain, panting heavily, plummeting -1.76%, really heartbreaking! 🐂🐂 📉 XRP current price $2.03, 24-hour high $2.1, low $2.01. Just like a tired old cow, it has no strength to break through the resistance, and can only fall towards the support level. 📍 One sentence sets the tone: Bearish, just like a skier sliding down from the top of the mountain, getting faster and faster. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: Fluctuating, like ripples on the lake at the foot of the mountain. • 1 hour: Downward, like a skier starting to accelerate down. • 4 hours: Downward, the skier leaves a deep mark on the ski slope. • Daily: Downward, this is a cold and steep ski slope. 📍 Support level $1.99 (first support, relatively weak), $1.98 (second support, with some strength), $1.94 (third support, as solid as a rock). 📍 Resistance level $2.03 (first resistance, right in front), $2.08 (second resistance, a stone's throw away), $2.11 (third resistance, high above). 💥 Contract sentiment: Although there are fluctuations in sentiment in the short term, the downward trend has already formed. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】 Short: Entry $2.04, Take profit $1.98, Stop loss $2.08, Position 10%. Dear cryptocurrency friends, that's all for today's analysis! What do you think? Feel free to leave comments and communicate in the comment area! Remember to like, comment, and share so more friends can see our analysis! 👏👏#xrp #Xrp🔥🔥 #TradeyAI
📱$ASTER keeps dropping! 4.2% crash ⚠️, the grim battlefield of the crypto world!"|December 06 TradeyAI Evening Market Analysis Today's ASTER is like a child on a roller coaster, sliding down all the way, scaring the kids to tears! 📉 ASTER current price $0.98, 24-hour high $1.03, low $0.975. 📍 One sentence to summarize: bearish, just like that apple that lost its gravity, keeps dropping. 📊 Trend Analysis: • 15 minutes: down, just like a skiing buddy, racing down. • 1 hour: down, like a falling stone, unable to stop its descent. • 4 hours: down, like a stone falling into an abyss, unable to extricate itself. • Daily: down, like a waterfall, water pouring down. 📍 Support levels $0.9764 (the cup of the child who fell), $0.9593 (the snow where the child slipped), $0.8975 (the ice rink in the freezing cold). 📍 Resistance levels $1.02 (the apple the child wants to pick), $1.04 (the branch the child wants to climb), $1.09 (the mountain the child wants to conquer). 💥 Contract sentiment, everyone is waiting, just like children anxiously waiting for the roller coaster to reach the highest point. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】short: entry $0.9829, take profit $0.9361, stop loss $1.02, position 10% Let's wait together to see if ASTER can find an exit in this roller coaster game, what do you think? Don't forget to like, comment, and share! #AsterDEX #TradeyAI
📱$ZEC plummeted 12.78%, cryptocurrency market crash scene ⚠️|December 06 TradeyAI evening market analysis" Hello everyone, I am your navigator in the cryptocurrency world. Today we are going to talk about the market of ZEC. To be honest, ZEC's performance today is truly surprising, just like that feeling when you suddenly slip on a banana peel while walking down the street, that's right, ZEC is that unexpected banana peel🍌. 📉 Current price of ZEC $338.26, 24-hour high $389.51, low $336.41. Seeing this, I can only say, it's like a chocolate factory suddenly shutting down, the sweet moment instantly turns bitter. 📍 One sentence to sum it up: bearish, ZEC is like that skier who keeps falling, going faster and faster, but heading in the wrong direction. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: downward • 1 hour: downward • 4 hours: downward • Daily: downward 📍 Support levels $336.41 (talc), $324.47 (muddy), $261.91 (abyss). 📍 Resistance levels $340 (hillside), $359.93 (high mountain), $385.48 (snowy peak). 💥 Contract sentiment is like an ostrich that insists on charging forward even though there's a big pit ahead, at this moment I can only wish it good luck. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】Short: entry $339.59, take profit $313.7, stop loss $362.78, position size 10% So, what do you think about ZEC's market? Would you choose to short at this position? Feel free to leave your comments for discussion, and don't forget to like and share! #zec #ZECUSDT #TradeyAI
📱$WLD Diving live! -4.64% plummet ⚠️, the crypto market crash site!"|December 06 TradeyAI evening market analysis Dear crypto friends, WLD's performance today has been a bit bumpy, diving by 4.64%. 📉 WLD's current price $0.576, 24-hour high $0.606, low $0.564. It's just like when you're singing at KTV and suddenly lose your voice, the scene is awkward. 📍 One sentence summary: It seems WLD's hype has been too much, and it’s fallen ill tonight. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: Fluctuating • 1 hour: Downward • 4 hours: Downward • Daily: Downward 📍 Support levels $0.5738 (within reach), $0.5636 (a bit farther away), $0.5586 (any further and it's bottoming out). 📍 Resistance levels $0.5789 (right in front), $0.5991 (needs some effort), $0.6129 (needs to fly a bit). 💥 Contract sentiment: Short-term bears are everywhere, it seems today’s diving scene is still ongoing. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】 Short: Entry $0.5783, Take profit $0.5536, Stop loss $0.5984, Position 10% WLD right now is like a tired marathon runner, it's quite difficult to make a comeback in a short time. So, for now, we should primarily focus on shorting. So, what do you think about this wave of decline in WLD? Quickly let me know in the comments, and don't forget to like, comment, and share, so more crypto friends can see our analysis! #WLD #TradeyAI
📱$DOGE crash scene! 3.28% plunge ⚠️, the crypto world is in chaos!|December 06 TradeyAI evening market analysis" Hello everyone, TradeyAI friends, it's that time again when we meet every day! Today's protagonist DOGE put on a "crash scene" in the crypto world, with a 24-hour decline of up to 3.28%. 😢 📉 DOGE current price $0.1396, 24-hour high $0.1449, low $0.1372. 📍 One sentence conclusion: Bearish, like a sports car with the engine off, it can only slide down. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: Fluctuating, like trivial little contradictions, going back and forth. • 1 hour: Downward, like skiing, sliding all the way down. • 4 hours: Downward, like a truck pushed off a cliff, unable to extricate itself. • Daily: Downward, like a roller coaster, making people's hearts race. 📍 Support levels $0.1367 (the edge about to be touched), $0.1366 (a bit further straw), $0.1337 (the edge of the abyss). 📍 Resistance levels $0.1435 (at the foot of a high mountain), $0.1551 (the rock halfway up the hill), $0.1607 (the flag at the mountain top). 💥 Contract situation: Everyone is quite cautious about DOGE, with a strong sentiment for short-term shorting. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】 Short: Entry $0.1402, Take profit $0.1358, Stop loss $0.1435, Position 10% Finally, fellow crypto friends, what do you think about DOGE's plunge performance this time? Feel free to leave us a message in the comments, and don't forget to like and share! See you tomorrow! #DOGE #doge⚡ #TradeyAI
📱$BNB Clever tricks! 0.95% slight drop ⚠️, fully revealing the tricks of the crypto world!|December 06 TradeyAI evening market analysis You see, BNB, this little master of diving, has chosen a different path while other partners in the crypto world are running in the sunshine, diving! However, a small drop of 0.95% is simply a piece of cake for the crypto world! 🍲 📉 BNB current price $884.51, 24-hour high $900.18, low $870.18. 📍 One sentence summary: BNB is like a diving champion, likely to continue to dive in the short term. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: oscillating • 1 hour: downward • 4 hours: downward • Daily: oscillating This is like BNB's preparatory moves before the dive; there may be some oscillation in the short term, but overall, the downward trend is quite obvious. 📍 Support levels $875.31 (first stage diving platform), $866.22 (second stage diving platform), $821.45 (final diving pool). 📍 Resistance levels $888.92 (railings of the diving platform), $902.8 (cheers from the audience), $921.05 (temptation of the gold medal). 💥 Contract sentiment: The forces of bulls and bears in the market are at a tug-of-war, just like the tension before BNB's dive, with all sides trying to influence its diving direction. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】 Short: entry $888.05, take profit $877.71, stop loss $891.31, position 10% #bnb #TradeyAI
📱$SOL Accident site! 2.96% drop ⚠️, Cryptocurrency ice bucket challenge!|December 06 TradeyAI Evening market analysis Good evening everyone, for those who love the cryptocurrency world, have you been frozen by SOL today? Let's take a look at how this "accident" SOL is doing! 👀 📉 Current price of SOL $132.73, 24-hour high $137.2, low $130.73. Today's SOL is like a skiing expert, sliding directly from the top of the mountain to the bottom, unfortunately, there are no spectators to applaud it. 📍 One sentence summary: SOL is bearish, like an unfortunate penguin that slipped in Antarctica. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: Trend fluctuating • 1 hour: Trend down • 4 hours: Trend down • Daily: Trend fluctuating It seems that this penguin is sliding in Antarctica, but there are too many ice blocks on the way, sliding and falling, making it really heartbreaking. 📍 Support levels $129.96 (like a penguin's talisman), $129.95 (like a penguin's lifeline), $125.65 (like a penguin's safe island). 📍 Resistance levels $132.81 (like a penguin's bumpy road), $136.11 (like a penguin's steep mountain), $138.51 (like a penguin's finish line). 💥 Contract sentiment seems to show that everyone’s hope for SOL is like the expectation for the penguin to slide steadily; although we know the truth, there is still a bit of fantasy. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】 Short: Entry $133.27, Take profit $129.13, Stop loss $136.35, Position 10% #solana #solana #TradeyAI
📱$ETH broke the lower track, 3.13% crash site ⚠️|December 06 TradeyAI evening market analysis Hello everyone, here is your old friend in the crypto circle, bringing you the latest market analysis of ETH. Today's ETH trend is like a thrilling roller coaster, first soaring upwards, then suddenly plummeting. By the end of the day, our ETH brother actually dropped by 3.13%. The crypto circle has turned into a crash site, everyone stay calm, let's take a look at the specific situation. 📉 Current ETH price $3031.32, 24-hour high $3157.99, low $2983.08. It's like a crazy roller coaster, the difference between the highest and lowest points is astonishing. 📍 One sentence summary: ETH, have you recently thought of yourself as a roller coaster? This drop is even more thrilling than a roller coaster, it's terrifying! 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: oscillation • 1 hour: downward • 4 hours: downward • Daily: downward After understanding the trend, let's take a look at the support and resistance levels of the price. This is like the track of a roller coaster, we can predict possible trends based on this data. 📍 Support levels $2985 (lowest point of the roller coaster), $2967.2 (second lowest point of the roller coaster), $2738.15. 📍 Resistance levels $3034.24 (starting point of the roller coaster), $3115.16 (highest point of the roller coaster), $3245.31. 💥 Contract sentiment: Everyone's sentiment towards ETH is like passengers on a roller coaster, there is already some panic at this moment. 🎯 Operation suggestion: Short: entry $3043.12, take profit $2979.19, stop loss $3082.81, position 10% #ETH #TradeyAI @TradeyAI
📱$BTC Dive! 1.75% plummet ⚠️, a crash scene in the crypto world!|December 06 TradeyAI Evening Market Analysis BTC's price has plunged, rapidly declining, a major drop akin to a crash scene in the crypto world, catching people's attention. 📉 BTC current price $89608, 24-hour high $91478.67, low $88056. 📍 One sentence summary: Bearish BTC is like an out-of-control parachute, constantly falling down. 📊 Trend analysis: • 15 minutes: Fluctuating • 1 hour: Downward • 4 hours: Downward • Daily: Fluctuating 📍 Support levels $88600.41 (the bottom of the parachute), $87747.39 (the crash mat), $84465.68 (the last life jacket). 📍 Resistance levels $90499.11 (cloud layer at high altitude), $91468.61 (headwind resistance), $94644.01 (insurmountable peak). 💥 Contract sentiment: Market sentiment is like a roller coaster, fluctuating up and down, with strong bearish sentiment in the short term. 🎯 Operation suggestion: 【SuperTrend filtering strategy】Short selling: Entry $89966.43, take profit $88396.23, stop loss $90819.77, position 10% What will you do tonight? Hurry up and tell me in the comments, and don't forget to like and share! #BTC #TradeyAI @TradeyAI
$ASTER | TradeyAI Market Brief #1 | December 06, 2025 (EST) ⚠️ Not financial advice — always do your own research. 📉 ASTER is currently trading at ~$0.98 (≈ 0.98 USDT); 24h change: -4.20%; 24h high: $1.03; 24h low: $0.975. 📍 Market Sentiment: Bearish — ASTER is currently on a downward trend, similar to a falling asteroid. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Candlestick Analysis: • 15-min chart – Downtrend with RSI (14) at 36.6, MACD crossing below the signal line, price below MA5 and MA20. • 1-h chart – Downtrend with RSI (14) at 34.0, MACD crossing below the signal line, MA5 below MA20. • 4-h chart – Downtrend with RSI (14) at 37.0, MACD crossing below the signal line, MA5 below MA20. • Daily chart – Range-bound with price fluctuating between MA5 and MA20, RSI (14) at 41.3, MACD crossing below the signal line. Support levels: $0.9764 / $0.9593 Resistance levels: $1.02 / $1.04 🧠 Derivatives Outlook: Funding rate slightly positive, open interest rising — suggests cautious long accumulation. 🎯 Trading Plan: • Strategy: SuperTrend Filter (SuperTrend + QQE MOD + A-V2) • Bias: Bearish • Entry: $0.982-$0.9839 • Stop-loss: $1.02 (≈ 4.0%) • Target 1: $0.9361 → Target 2: $0.9147 • Risk/Reward: ~1:1.5 🔔 Follow for more live scans & setups. Drop your favourite crypto ticker below if you'd like a spot check!#AsterDEX #TradeyAI @TradeyAI