BTC泽哥

1. Liquidity and Macroeconomics: Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, and risk appetite is increasing.
Core Benefits: Hassett clearly supports a larger interest rate cut (not excluding a single cut of more than 25 basis points), emphasizing that there is ample room for interest rate cuts driven by data, reducing the opportunity cost and discount rate of holding crypto assets, and pushing funds from low-yield assets to high-risk cryptocurrencies, benefiting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and growth-oriented altcoins.
Market Reaction: Expectations are pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down, the U.S. dollar index is under pressure, and assets priced in U.S. dollars such as Bitcoin are receiving valuation support; institutional capital entry willingness has increased, leverage costs are decreasing, benefiting the activity of derivatives and leveraged trading.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has concluded its last interest rate meeting of the year, announcing as expected a reduction of the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%. At the same time, it maintains the mid-term guidance of three rate cuts in 2026 to 3.4%, marking a deepening of the current monetary easing cycle. However, the signals released by the meeting are not solely one-sided easing; the internal policy differences within the decision-making body, cautious assessments of the economic outlook, and adjustments to balance sheet policies collectively create a complex picture affecting global asset pricing.

Core policy: interest rate cut implemented but tone is hawkish, balance sheet reduction concludes with a focus on liquidity

On December 09, 2025, during the initial trading hours in the U.S., the Fear and Greed Index on Wall Street was fixed at 32%, falling within the 'fear' range. This value has neither reached the 0-25 range that represents extreme market panic nor crossed the neutral threshold of 50, reflecting the subtle state of sentiment in the current U.S. stock market.

1. Behind the 32% fear level: What is the market afraid of?
The Fear and Greed Index, as a key indicator reflecting market sentiment, tends to show a lower value corresponding to investors' risk-averse tendencies. A fear level of 32% indicates that current market participants are cautious about short-term trends, and the core driving factors can be summarized in several aspects:

As the end of 2025 approaches, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting countdown begins, with the market focusing on the adjustment of its balance sheet after the end of tapering— the $45 billion 'reserve management bond-buying' plan is highly likely to officially land. This measure, aimed at alleviating pressure in the repo market and supplementing bank system reserves, is essentially a liquidity management tool that will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market through the triple logic of capital flow, risk appetite, and asset correlation, becoming a key variable for the year-end market.

Core Logic: Expectations of liquidity easing activate risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market

In the highly volatile digital asset market, Bitcoin and tokenized gold, each with their unique value anchors, have become core options for investors' asset allocation. Although both are tradable digital assets, their underlying logic, value support, and applicable scenarios are distinctly different. Understanding their core differences is essential for accurately seizing profit opportunities.
Core Positioning: Decentralized Benchmark vs Digitalization of Physical Assets
Bitcoin: As the pioneering cryptocurrency, it is centered around decentralized blockchain technology, without physical backing or an issuing party endorsement, constructing value based on global consensus and scarcity (a total of 21 million coins). Its positioning leans more towards 'digital gold' and 'alternative safe-haven asset,' while also possessing speculative attributes, with price fluctuations being extreme, making it a popular target for short-term trading and long-term holding.

1. Absolute execution, instruction closed-loop landing: abandon subjective conjecture and emotional operations, strictly follow precise strategy execution, each operation anchors to a certain direction, eliminating hesitation and observation that leads to profit loss, allowing professional judgment to be directly converted into actual earnings.
2. Restrain greed, safeguard certain profits: do not be overly ambitious or chase after rising prices, accurately control the rhythm of profit-taking, take profits steadily as they arise, avoid the risk of profit withdrawal caused by greed, small profits accumulate into compound interest, ensuring more stable long-term profits.
3. Go with the trend, align with the essence of the market: respect market rules, resolutely avoid counter-trend speculation, accurately capture trend dividends, rely on market rhythm for layout, reduce ineffective operational losses, ensuring profits always align with the mainstream direction of the market, maintaining a high win rate.

On December 9, according to Jinshi data, U.S. President Trump publicly spoke on social media, firmly defending the tariff policy, stating that if the U.S. Supreme Court makes an unfavorable ruling on the tariff issue, it will become the "greatest historical threat" to U.S. national security, and at that time, the U.S. will fall into a state of "utter defenselessness" in the economic realm.

Trump stated that the convenience and rapid implementation of the tariff policy is key to significantly enhancing U.S. national security, making the U.S. the "strongest financial power in the world today." In his view, only "dark and evil forces" would hope to see this policy system, which supports the U.S. economy and security, come to an end. This statement has elevated the internal debate regarding tariff policy in the U.S. to a new level.