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The market's expectation for easing policies has stabilized the rhythm, with Bitcoin temporarily holding at the 90,000 mark. In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate in the range of 88,000 to 94,000, with movements following macroeconomic news. If easing materializes this week, there will be short-term benefits, but the subsequent attitude will be key. It is highly likely to experience a rise followed by a pullback, and the strength of the support below will depend on policy signals. #比特币走势分析 $BTC
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This week is a super data week! The long-awaited Federal Reserve interest rate decision is finally about to be announced! Plus, Powell's press conference speech! Will there be a direct rate cut of 25 basis points? Or will the interest rate remain unchanged? Or will they start balance sheet expansion? Is there a possibility of a 50 basis point cut? Is the next rate cut in 2026 an increase? …… All of these are possible……
Not only that, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and other central banks have a dense schedule of data, along with multiple speeches from Federal Reserve officials…… The global market will be buzzing this week! Let's look forward to it!
I personally believe that expectations have been digested in advance, and Bitcoin may surge in a short time and then crash down again; December will be a month of volatile declines……
#美联储利率决议即将公布 #鲍威尔新闻发布会
Not only that, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and other central banks have a dense schedule of data, along with multiple speeches from Federal Reserve officials…… The global market will be buzzing this week! Let's look forward to it!
I personally believe that expectations have been digested in advance, and Bitcoin may surge in a short time and then crash down again; December will be a month of volatile declines……
#美联储利率决议即将公布 #鲍威尔新闻发布会
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The potential Christmas rebound of Bitcoin depends on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision!
The year-end rebound is often referred to as the 'Christmas rally.' In previous years, there have indeed been rebound increases during the Christmas month. Currently, due to improved liquidity conditions and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates reaching 90% in early December, the crypto market may be preparing for a rebound.
Despite the positive macro factors, overall market sentiment is still dominated by fear. Institutional and retail investors remain hesitant and have not injected capital, leaving the market in a stalemate until ETF inflows and other institutional signals confirm stability. Therefore, the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve will be crucial. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates on December 10 and ends quantitative tightening, Bitcoin may experience a short-term rise in the 'Christmas rally,' provided there are no major geopolitical shocks.
Additionally, speculation about Hassett being appointed as the next Federal Reserve Chair may introduce a more dovish stance, which could positively impact the cryptocurrency market to some extent.
There is a variable: the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December can already be said to be a done deal, and at that time, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the yen's rate hike may further reduce the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market. #比特币上涨
#美联储会议
The year-end rebound is often referred to as the 'Christmas rally.' In previous years, there have indeed been rebound increases during the Christmas month. Currently, due to improved liquidity conditions and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates reaching 90% in early December, the crypto market may be preparing for a rebound.
Despite the positive macro factors, overall market sentiment is still dominated by fear. Institutional and retail investors remain hesitant and have not injected capital, leaving the market in a stalemate until ETF inflows and other institutional signals confirm stability. Therefore, the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve will be crucial. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates on December 10 and ends quantitative tightening, Bitcoin may experience a short-term rise in the 'Christmas rally,' provided there are no major geopolitical shocks.
Additionally, speculation about Hassett being appointed as the next Federal Reserve Chair may introduce a more dovish stance, which could positively impact the cryptocurrency market to some extent.
There is a variable: the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December can already be said to be a done deal, and at that time, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the yen's rate hike may further reduce the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market. #比特币上涨
#美联储会议
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Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have fallen again. Although the macro environment is favorable, it is difficult to prevent panic selling. Can the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week bring confidence to the bulls?
Last night's U.S. PCE data unexpectedly fell short of expectations, and its "surprise drop" indicates an increased risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Theoretically, this is favorable for risk assets. However, the disappointing short-term data has not provided a boost, and concerns about changes in the Federal Reserve chair candidates and cautious rate cut statements from Hasset have increased uncertainty, triggering panic selling and a significant drop in the cryptocurrency market.
From a technical perspective, the long-term trend of Bitcoin remains weak, as the weekly chart's moving average death cross continues to indicate that the medium-term adjustment risk has not dissipated. The recent rebound on the daily chart has encountered resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, leading to a correction. This correction, combined with panic selling and technical repairs, has amplified the downward momentum. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are once again in a sensitive zone, and after the decline, there will be a correction over the weekend. The short-term resistance for Bitcoin is at 90000 (previous support has turned into resistance) and 92000, while the support below is at 88000 and 86500. Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, testing the support strength at the 3000 level again, with short-term resistance at 3100～3230 and short-term support at 2980 and 2900.
In the short term, Bitcoin and Ethereum are influenced by the macro Federal Reserve decision. Although the rising expectations for a potential rate cut provide support, whether there will be any changes in the actual situation still depends on next week's interest rate decision. #比特币走势分析 #美联储降息
Last night's U.S. PCE data unexpectedly fell short of expectations, and its "surprise drop" indicates an increased risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Theoretically, this is favorable for risk assets. However, the disappointing short-term data has not provided a boost, and concerns about changes in the Federal Reserve chair candidates and cautious rate cut statements from Hasset have increased uncertainty, triggering panic selling and a significant drop in the cryptocurrency market.
From a technical perspective, the long-term trend of Bitcoin remains weak, as the weekly chart's moving average death cross continues to indicate that the medium-term adjustment risk has not dissipated. The recent rebound on the daily chart has encountered resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, leading to a correction. This correction, combined with panic selling and technical repairs, has amplified the downward momentum. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are once again in a sensitive zone, and after the decline, there will be a correction over the weekend. The short-term resistance for Bitcoin is at 90000 (previous support has turned into resistance) and 92000, while the support below is at 88000 and 86500. Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, testing the support strength at the 3000 level again, with short-term resistance at 3100～3230 and short-term support at 2980 and 2900.
In the short term, Bitcoin and Ethereum are influenced by the macro Federal Reserve decision. Although the rising expectations for a potential rate cut provide support, whether there will be any changes in the actual situation still depends on next week's interest rate decision. #比特币走势分析 #美联储降息
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CPI absent, the most favored PCE data by the Federal Reserve makes its exclusive debut tonight! However, this data is from September, before the shutdown. It is highly likely to remain unchanged at 2.9%, just like before. This is bearish for the dollar, strengthening rate cut expectations, which is bullish for cryptocurrencies! Bitcoin may receive support again tonight! #PCE数据
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The interest rate hike in Japan in December is a done deal!! And there is almost no uncertainty about the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates! What will happen? Will the market fluctuate and then return to calm? #日本加息
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Initial claims data "reverse cooling"! Will Bitcoin's upward momentum ease, and can tonight's PCE save the interest rate cut expectations?
Introduction——
The essence of investment is to exchange time for value and to withstand volatility with patience. The market never fails to reward the vigilant steadfast; those who endure the bear market's patience and resist the urge to chase highs will eventually bear fruit in the time of compound interest. The so-called trend-following is never about following the crowd for profit, but about keeping true to one's original intention amid the noise and persevering through the lows. May every rational persistence bring forth the confidence and rewards to transcend cycles.
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has shown a retreat and repair trend under the impact of conflicting macro data. The U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly "cooled down," with the number of first-time applicants plummeting by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level in three years, sharply contrasting with the employment weakness shown in Wednesday's ADP "small nonfarm" report. The data confirms that there are no signs of deterioration in the U.S. labor market, and the previously warming expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have not been further strengthened. The dollar index, which had been declining for several days, has stopped falling and rebounded, and the cryptocurrency market has also eased its upward momentum in a short time, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both experiencing a retracement and correction.
The essence of investment is to exchange time for value and to withstand volatility with patience. The market never fails to reward the vigilant steadfast; those who endure the bear market's patience and resist the urge to chase highs will eventually bear fruit in the time of compound interest. The so-called trend-following is never about following the crowd for profit, but about keeping true to one's original intention amid the noise and persevering through the lows. May every rational persistence bring forth the confidence and rewards to transcend cycles.
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has shown a retreat and repair trend under the impact of conflicting macro data. The U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly "cooled down," with the number of first-time applicants plummeting by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level in three years, sharply contrasting with the employment weakness shown in Wednesday's ADP "small nonfarm" report. The data confirms that there are no signs of deterioration in the U.S. labor market, and the previously warming expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have not been further strengthened. The dollar index, which had been declining for several days, has stopped falling and rebounded, and the cryptocurrency market has also eased its upward momentum in a short time, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both experiencing a retracement and correction.
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The initial unemployment claims data has unexpectedly dropped, with the number of people applying for unemployment benefits reaching the lowest level in three years. Has employment suddenly improved? This data contradicts yesterday's small non-farm ADP employment data! Has it weakened the Fed's interest rate cut expectations? #初请失业金 #美联储降息
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ADP's unexpected drop strengthens interest rate cut expectations. Can tonight's initial jobless claims push Bitcoin towards $96,000?
ADP's unexpected drop boosts interest rate cut expectations, while cryptocurrency rebounds face technical pressure
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has fluctuated and rebounded amidst the game between macroeconomic benefits and technical pressures. The US ADP employment data for November released last night unexpectedly fell sharply, reducing 32,000 jobs, which is seen by the market as a key signal of cooling in the economy and job market. This data, as the last employment clue before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, directly led to the market's expectation probability of an interest rate cut at the meeting on December 10-11 soaring to nearly 90%. The warming expectations for an interest rate cut weakened the dollar's attractiveness (the dollar index has fallen for nine consecutive days) and boosted the appeal of all risk assets, including Bitcoin. This pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum to rebound after a slight correction in the evening — Bitcoin briefly touched the $94,000 mark in the morning before retreating to around $93,000; Ethereum simultaneously climbed to the $3,200 range, presenting an overall pattern of 'positive support but limited gains.'
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has fluctuated and rebounded amidst the game between macroeconomic benefits and technical pressures. The US ADP employment data for November released last night unexpectedly fell sharply, reducing 32,000 jobs, which is seen by the market as a key signal of cooling in the economy and job market. This data, as the last employment clue before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, directly led to the market's expectation probability of an interest rate cut at the meeting on December 10-11 soaring to nearly 90%. The warming expectations for an interest rate cut weakened the dollar's attractiveness (the dollar index has fallen for nine consecutive days) and boosted the appeal of all risk assets, including Bitcoin. This pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum to rebound after a slight correction in the evening — Bitcoin briefly touched the $94,000 mark in the morning before retreating to around $93,000; Ethereum simultaneously climbed to the $3,200 range, presenting an overall pattern of 'positive support but limited gains.'
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Trump is about to make a big move! Note that a major statement will be released tomorrow morning! Is it related to foreign military relations or internal Federal Reserve matters? Regardless, the market is expected to see significant fluctuations again! #特朗普讲话
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Cryptocurrency Market Faces 'Black Monday' Blow, Is Bitcoin's Hope of Returning Above 90,000 Now Diminished?
On the first trading day of December 2025, the cryptocurrency market faced a severe storm driven by drastic changes in macro policy. While the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda sent the clearest signal yet for a rate hike on the morning of December 1, causing market expectations for a December rate hike probability to soar above 76%. This sharp contrast in monetary policy completely disrupted market equilibrium.
1. Macroeconomic 'Black Swan': Divergence in US-Japan Policies Withdraws Global Liquidity
The core driving force behind this plunge came from the unexpected divergence of monetary policies from the two major central banks globally. On one hand, although the Federal Reserve stopped 'quantitative tightening' yesterday and released liquidity to the market, it remains 'far from certain' whether it will continue to cut rates in December. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's unexpectedly tight shift directly impacted the long-standing 'yen carry trade' model. Investors are concerned that a yen rate hike will trigger accelerated unwinding of carry trades, leading to a withdrawal of funds from global high-risk assets. This tightening of liquidity expectations makes highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies the first to be affected.
1. Macroeconomic 'Black Swan': Divergence in US-Japan Policies Withdraws Global Liquidity
The core driving force behind this plunge came from the unexpected divergence of monetary policies from the two major central banks globally. On one hand, although the Federal Reserve stopped 'quantitative tightening' yesterday and released liquidity to the market, it remains 'far from certain' whether it will continue to cut rates in December. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's unexpectedly tight shift directly impacted the long-standing 'yen carry trade' model. Investors are concerned that a yen rate hike will trigger accelerated unwinding of carry trades, leading to a withdrawal of funds from global high-risk assets. This tightening of liquidity expectations makes highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies the first to be affected.
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Powell is about to speak! What will happen? Can Bitcoin return to 90,000?
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December has almost become a certainty, while the Bank of Japan suddenly signaled a clear interest rate hike, the contrasting policies combined with tightening regulatory measures have intensified market panic, leading to a sell-off in the crypto market yesterday. Bitcoin fell to around 83,800 at one point yesterday, and Ethereum followed the downward trend, approaching the 2,700 mark in the evening, but fortunately rebounded in the early morning.
From a technical perspective, the breakdown and decline have directly disrupted last week's rebound rhythm, with the MACD indicator at a large cycle level turning bearish and expanding, and the KDJ dead cross pointing downward, indicating that there may still be room for price decline. The four-hour and hourly levels are already operating with reduced volume, and the short-term rebound repair may be limited in strength. During the day, pay attention to the pressure on rebounds in the Asia-Europe session, with Bitcoin's upper level focusing on the 88,000 to 90,000 area, and Ethereum focusing on the 2,880 to 2,950 area for pressure.
Today, macro factors should focus on the impact of Powell and the speeches of Federal Reserve executives on the market, which will further reveal information related to interest rate cuts. Will Bitcoin return to 90,000 at that time? What does everyone think? #鲍威尔讲话 #比特币走势分析 $BTC
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December has almost become a certainty, while the Bank of Japan suddenly signaled a clear interest rate hike, the contrasting policies combined with tightening regulatory measures have intensified market panic, leading to a sell-off in the crypto market yesterday. Bitcoin fell to around 83,800 at one point yesterday, and Ethereum followed the downward trend, approaching the 2,700 mark in the evening, but fortunately rebounded in the early morning.
From a technical perspective, the breakdown and decline have directly disrupted last week's rebound rhythm, with the MACD indicator at a large cycle level turning bearish and expanding, and the KDJ dead cross pointing downward, indicating that there may still be room for price decline. The four-hour and hourly levels are already operating with reduced volume, and the short-term rebound repair may be limited in strength. During the day, pay attention to the pressure on rebounds in the Asia-Europe session, with Bitcoin's upper level focusing on the 88,000 to 90,000 area, and Ethereum focusing on the 2,880 to 2,950 area for pressure.
Today, macro factors should focus on the impact of Powell and the speeches of Federal Reserve executives on the market, which will further reveal information related to interest rate cuts. Will Bitcoin return to 90,000 at that time? What does everyone think? #鲍威尔讲话 #比特币走势分析 $BTC
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It's December now, the last month of the year. I didn't expect today to start off so badly, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 7000 points, extinguishing the bullish sentiment that was hard to accumulate last week! Last month it fell to 80,000 and rebounded, and now December is crucial. As I mentioned at the beginning of last month, if the area around 90,000 to 80,000 at the end of the year is broken, then next year will be a bear year. Those in the market still holding onto fantasies of a bull market should wake up...
Regardless, both bulls and bears are often late to realize things. The bull market may be gone, but the bear market is full of opportunities, and everything will get better! #加密市场回调 #比特币暴跌 $BTC
Regardless, both bulls and bears are often late to realize things. The bull market may be gone, but the bear market is full of opportunities, and everything will get better! #加密市场回调 #比特币暴跌 $BTC
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The price of Bitcoin plummeted from $91,000 to $86,000, mainly influenced by two factors: first, the rising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the decline in China's non-manufacturing PMI, which put pressure on macro sentiment in Asia; second, the Strategy CEO mentioned the possibility of selling Bitcoin when the stock price falls below net asset value (NAV) and financing dries up, triggering panic in the market. Despite the end of quantitative tightening (QT), a rise in the probability of interest rate cuts to 87% in December, and net inflows into ETFs, the pullback of Bitcoin after a previous 15% rebound is seen as a normal adjustment, with the current key being whether it can hold the previous low point. #比特币暴跌
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Bitcoin's sharp drop this morning pierced the $90,000 mark, erasing last week's rebound space! This week focuses on the non-farm payroll report and Powell's speech
1. Market Overview: A calm weekend, but the morning saw a sudden change.
Throughout the entire weekend, Bitcoin remained in a sideways consolidation around $90,800, with extremely low volatility. Although there was a surge to $92,000 last night, the momentum was clearly insufficient to sustain it.
Since early this morning, Bitcoin has come under pressure again, suddenly plummeting in volume, with the price directly breaking below the $90,000 mark, hitting a low of around $87,000.
Ethereum's decline was even sharper, instantaneously crashing to $2,830, with a significant selling pressure observed across many mainstream and altcoins, causing market sentiment to weaken again in the short term.
Throughout the entire weekend, Bitcoin remained in a sideways consolidation around $90,800, with extremely low volatility. Although there was a surge to $92,000 last night, the momentum was clearly insufficient to sustain it.
Since early this morning, Bitcoin has come under pressure again, suddenly plummeting in volume, with the price directly breaking below the $90,000 mark, hitting a low of around $87,000.
Ethereum's decline was even sharper, instantaneously crashing to $2,830, with a significant selling pressure observed across many mainstream and altcoins, causing market sentiment to weaken again in the short term.
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With rising expectations of interest rate cuts and capital inflows, Ethereum is holding steady above the $3,000 mark, but it still needs a major whale push!
Ethereum is consolidating around $3,000, rebounding nearly 7% from its low of $2,800 at the beginning of the week. Overall, it exhibits a pattern of "macroeconomic support + ecosystem backing, but technical obstacles." Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum has shown greater resilience recently, primarily due to the dual support of capital rotation and the fundamentals of its ecosystem. Even after failing to break through the $3,050-$3,100 range, the pullback has only been around 2%.
Macroeconomic benefits also worked for Ethereum, with an additional boost. CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has stabilized at 87%, and the weakening dollar has boosted sentiment towards risk assets, providing basic liquidity support for Ethereum. More importantly, there's the effect of fund rotation—while Bitcoin ETFs saw a slight outflow last week, Ethereum-related ETFs attracted a net inflow of $253 million in a single week, indicating that institutions are clearly shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, attempting to capture its ecosystem growth dividends. There are also positive signals at the ecosystem level. Currently, the total amount of Ethereum staked has reached 35.68 million ETH, with a staking ratio of 29.56%. The staked lending scale of the Layer 2 Base network has exceeded $1.25 billion, and the ecosystem activity has built a "safety cushion" for the price.
Macroeconomic benefits also worked for Ethereum, with an additional boost. CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has stabilized at 87%, and the weakening dollar has boosted sentiment towards risk assets, providing basic liquidity support for Ethereum. More importantly, there's the effect of fund rotation—while Bitcoin ETFs saw a slight outflow last week, Ethereum-related ETFs attracted a net inflow of $253 million in a single week, indicating that institutions are clearly shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, attempting to capture its ecosystem growth dividends. There are also positive signals at the ecosystem level. Currently, the total amount of Ethereum staked has reached 35.68 million ETH, with a staking ratio of 29.56%. The staked lending scale of the Layer 2 Base network has exceeded $1.25 billion, and the ecosystem activity has built a "safety cushion" for the price.
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Expectations for interest rate cuts continue to provide support; whether Bitcoin can break through $93,000 will depend on next week.
Introduction——
The essence of investment is not the frenzy of chasing highs and cutting losses, but the steadfastness that comes with slowing down. Time is the best partner, and compound interest is the most reliable support. There is no need to worry about short-term fluctuations; as long as the direction is correct and you keep moving, the patience and foresight that quietly settle will eventually ferment over time, rewarding you with surprises beyond expectations.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $90,700, a pullback from the $93,000 high reached last night. The past 24 hours have still seen a fluctuating situation. The market in the past two days has been quite interesting; the macro environment has provided ample confidence, but the technical side has remained 'stuck', a typical pattern of 'positive news supporting but struggling to break through'.
The essence of investment is not the frenzy of chasing highs and cutting losses, but the steadfastness that comes with slowing down. Time is the best partner, and compound interest is the most reliable support. There is no need to worry about short-term fluctuations; as long as the direction is correct and you keep moving, the patience and foresight that quietly settle will eventually ferment over time, rewarding you with surprises beyond expectations.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $90,700, a pullback from the $93,000 high reached last night. The past 24 hours have still seen a fluctuating situation. The market in the past two days has been quite interesting; the macro environment has provided ample confidence, but the technical side has remained 'stuck', a typical pattern of 'positive news supporting but struggling to break through'.
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