Bitcoin Halving Cycle Curse: Has This Bull Market Really Ended?
Bitcoin Halving Cycle Deep Dive: Historical Patterns and the Current Reality's Intense Collision------This article purely extrapolates from Bitcoin's historical halving cycles, which involve numerous uncertainties and should be viewed rationally!
Dear friends, today we analyze whether the bull market will end or continue through the Bitcoin halving cycle. According to historical patterns, when exactly is the bottom of this cycle? And what does the current rebound after breaking 100000 mean?
1. Accurate Review of Historical Cycles and Future Extrapolation First of all, we must acknowledge the regularity of historical data, but we also need to see the subtle differences within it:
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Midnight strategy take-profit reminder, pay attention to the following points!
$BTC 9 1 7 0 0 ~940 0 0 Nearby short positions pay attention to the 90000 million mark and near 89000, need to reduce part of the position, as well as the support near 87500 and 83800, all need to be noted, appropriately reduce positions, the ultimate target is around 78500, short-term players can reduce positions or take profits #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC
鄂B炒家
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December 8 Bitcoin Market Early Report
Hello everyone, last week's article reminded everyone of the key resistance at 94000, and the price stopped near 94000 and began to pull back, reaching a low of around 87700. This week, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, mainly paying attention to this month's expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan, which will affect the future trend of Bitcoin. The specific analysis is as follows:
Macroeconomic Negative News
The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike statement indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December is about 91%, up from 58% at the end of November. This has raised market concerns about a reversal of global “carry trades,” which may prompt funds to flow out of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Additionally, domestic crackdowns and significant net outflows of Bitcoin spot ETFs in November have contributed to this negative sentiment. Today, BlackRock has seen a net outflow of 32490 million USD so far, making it difficult for prices to stage a significant rebound. Therefore, despite expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on the 11th of this month, it is unlikely to reverse the downward trend! After the rate cut is announced, there is a high probability of a small waterfall, so everyone needs to be cautious!
Technical Indicator Analysis
The morning market rebounded to around 91700, reaching the Fibonacci retracement line at 0.618. The market fluctuated quickly, and I remind everyone to directly position short with a brief thought. If you have entered, just be patient and wait!
After the daily chart showed a death cross signal, it began to decline all the way. The upper benchmark line at 94000 also failed to break through effectively last week. From the following chart, it can be clearly seen that the current price is still within the downward trend line. The morning rebound just touched the trend line and then continued to pull back. Friends who have not entered should continue to pay attention to the area around 91700 and 94000 to short it. The target is to pay attention to the support at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud chart at 89000 and around the Fibonacci retracement of 50 near 87500. It is recommended to reduce positions to break even when the target is reached and then to gamble around 78400. This week, it is expected to touch the Bitcoin starting with 70, while for long positions, patience is still required. What does everyone think? Feel free to share your thoughts to discuss the subsequent trends together!
$BTC The downward trend has not been broken, don't panic, as long as it doesn't stabilize near 9 4 0 0 0 before the interest rate cut is implemented, the bears can make it to the end!#美联储重启降息步伐
917 0 0 Empty order simulation has entered the market, supplement once near 9 4 0 0 0, everyone please refer to it! Take profit 78500, stop loss 94666, #美联储重启降息步伐
鄂B炒家
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December 8 Bitcoin Market Early Report
Hello everyone, last week's article reminded everyone of the key resistance at 94000, and the price stopped near 94000 and began to pull back, reaching a low of around 87700. This week, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, mainly paying attention to this month's expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan, which will affect the future trend of Bitcoin. The specific analysis is as follows:
Macroeconomic Negative News
The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike statement indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December is about 91%, up from 58% at the end of November. This has raised market concerns about a reversal of global “carry trades,” which may prompt funds to flow out of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Additionally, domestic crackdowns and significant net outflows of Bitcoin spot ETFs in November have contributed to this negative sentiment. Today, BlackRock has seen a net outflow of 32490 million USD so far, making it difficult for prices to stage a significant rebound. Therefore, despite expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on the 11th of this month, it is unlikely to reverse the downward trend! After the rate cut is announced, there is a high probability of a small waterfall, so everyone needs to be cautious!
Technical Indicator Analysis
The morning market rebounded to around 91700, reaching the Fibonacci retracement line at 0.618. The market fluctuated quickly, and I remind everyone to directly position short with a brief thought. If you have entered, just be patient and wait!
After the daily chart showed a death cross signal, it began to decline all the way. The upper benchmark line at 94000 also failed to break through effectively last week. From the following chart, it can be clearly seen that the current price is still within the downward trend line. The morning rebound just touched the trend line and then continued to pull back. Friends who have not entered should continue to pay attention to the area around 91700 and 94000 to short it. The target is to pay attention to the support at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud chart at 89000 and around the Fibonacci retracement of 50 near 87500. It is recommended to reduce positions to break even when the target is reached and then to gamble around 78400. This week, it is expected to touch the Bitcoin starting with 70, while for long positions, patience is still required. What does everyone think? Feel free to share your thoughts to discuss the subsequent trends together!
Recent focus on the game between positive and negative macro news
📈 Major positive factors 1. Improvement in macro liquidity The Federal Reserve ends QT: Quantitative tightening ended on December 1, 2025, stopping the withdrawal of liquidity from the market, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets, including crypto assets. Interest rate cut expectations rise: The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early has strengthened, driving a general rebound in global risk assets (including Bitcoin). (But caution is needed regarding the implementation of the rate cut)
2. Institution acceptance and capital inflow
Public companies 'stockpiling coins': Public companies represented by MicroStrategy continue to purchase and hold Bitcoin, forming a stable buying force.
On December 8, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision this week, with the probability of 'Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December' on Polymarket reaching 93%. The market has reached a high level of consensus on the interest rate cut this month.
In addition, on January 28 next year, the Federal Reserve will also release the January interest rate decision. As of the time of writing, the probability of 'Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates this month' has risen to 68%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 27%.#美联储重启降息步伐
Hello everyone, last week's article reminded everyone of the key resistance at 94000, and the price stopped near 94000 and began to pull back, reaching a low of around 87700. This week, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, mainly paying attention to this month's expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan, which will affect the future trend of Bitcoin. The specific analysis is as follows:
Macroeconomic Negative News
The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike statement indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December is about 91%, up from 58% at the end of November. This has raised market concerns about a reversal of global “carry trades,” which may prompt funds to flow out of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Additionally, domestic crackdowns and significant net outflows of Bitcoin spot ETFs in November have contributed to this negative sentiment. Today, BlackRock has seen a net outflow of 32490 million USD so far, making it difficult for prices to stage a significant rebound. Therefore, despite expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on the 11th of this month, it is unlikely to reverse the downward trend! After the rate cut is announced, there is a high probability of a small waterfall, so everyone needs to be cautious!
Technical Indicator Analysis
The morning market rebounded to around 91700, reaching the Fibonacci retracement line at 0.618. The market fluctuated quickly, and I remind everyone to directly position short with a brief thought. If you have entered, just be patient and wait!
After the daily chart showed a death cross signal, it began to decline all the way. The upper benchmark line at 94000 also failed to break through effectively last week. From the following chart, it can be clearly seen that the current price is still within the downward trend line. The morning rebound just touched the trend line and then continued to pull back. Friends who have not entered should continue to pay attention to the area around 91700 and 94000 to short it. The target is to pay attention to the support at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud chart at 89000 and around the Fibonacci retracement of 50 near 87500. It is recommended to reduce positions to break even when the target is reached and then to gamble around 78400. This week, it is expected to touch the Bitcoin starting with 70, while for long positions, patience is still required. What does everyone think? Feel free to share your thoughts to discuss the subsequent trends together!
Battle at $94,000! Three major benefits versus three layers of pressure, is the moment for Bitcoin's change of trend approaching?
Hello everyone, today on the market, both bulls and bears are repeatedly battling around the $94,000 mark, and the air is filled with the smell of gunpowder. On one side, there are warm winds blowing from the macro front, while on the other side, cold water is being poured by the funding and regulation. Bitcoin is standing at a critical crossroads. Next, let me break down this fierce game that will determine the direction of the future market.
1. The three 'trump cards' in the hands of the bulls
The current confidence of the bulls mainly comes from the clear signal of a shift in macro policy, which may be a stronger driving force than the technical aspect.
$BTC It's time for a rebound, the bear market will last until next year. If it falls back this time, what will happen? Adjusting the strategy, cautiously laying out short positions! #加密市场回调 $
Brothers, how do you think I did with this simulation $BTC ? #比特币波动性
鄂B炒家
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Bitcoin's fierce battle at $92,000, can the key support hold? Daily strategy analysis
Bitcoin, known as 'digital gold', has recently dimmed in luster, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting the $92,000 mark. Market sentiment appears to be one of panic, but often during such times, opportunities are quietly brewing. Yesterday, Bitcoin once again staged a 'roller coaster' market, first briefly breaking below $89,000, dipping to around $88,600, and then rebounding strongly—perfectly aligning with the long position strategy of $89,450 to $89,000 mentioned in our article yesterday, with the first target of $92,500 already achieved. 📉 Market sentiment and price trends The continuous decline over 43 days has brought Bitcoin its most severe round of adjustment since 2017. Panic selling has intensified, threatening not only the psychological 'Maginot Line' at $90,000 but even briefly breaking below $89,000, setting a new low in nearly seven months.
BlackRock had a net outflow of 355 million today, everyone is selling, and there is no rebound at all! The bears have won this time, our shorts near 92900 and 93200 are aiming for 78400, if it effectively breaks down here, then we will see 74500, those buying the dip need to be cautious! The short position from this morning didn't give an opportunity to enter, it's really a pity, the previous day's and the day before yesterday's short positions are continuing to play around 78400 and near 74500 after reducing their positions!
鄂B炒家
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Bitcoin's Night of Terror! The 85000 dollar defense line has been breached, does 'digital gold' still shine?
The cold wind of late autumn not only blows down the remaining leaves from the branches but also sends a chill through the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin performed a 'high dive', plummeting over 32% from its October peak, not only breaking the psychological barrier of 87000 dollars but also briefly piercing the support level of 85300 dollars, creating a new low since April.
In this bloody storm, our prediction yesterday unexpectedly became an 'anchorage' for investors. The article accurately pointed out the short position suggestion near 93200, which perfectly captured a drop of nearly 8000 points within 24 hours, becoming a rare highlight in this round of decline.
This crash came quickly and fiercely. According to statistics, over 245,000 investors across the internet suffered liquidation within 24 hours, with 5.8 billion in funds evaporating instantly. Panic spread like a plague, while the market seems to still be searching for the bottom.
Bitcoin's Night of Terror! The 85000 dollar defense line has been breached, does 'digital gold' still shine?
The cold wind of late autumn not only blows down the remaining leaves from the branches but also sends a chill through the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin performed a 'high dive', plummeting over 32% from its October peak, not only breaking the psychological barrier of 87000 dollars but also briefly piercing the support level of 85300 dollars, creating a new low since April.
In this bloody storm, our prediction yesterday unexpectedly became an 'anchorage' for investors. The article accurately pointed out the short position suggestion near 93200, which perfectly captured a drop of nearly 8000 points within 24 hours, becoming a rare highlight in this round of decline.
This crash came quickly and fiercely. According to statistics, over 245,000 investors across the internet suffered liquidation within 24 hours, with 5.8 billion in funds evaporating instantly. Panic spread like a plague, while the market seems to still be searching for the bottom.
Today the 5000 points target was completed quite early, short position near 93200, currently around 88200, today's 5000 points have been completed, reducing positions, remaining a small part looking at 87500~85000~78400 extreme 74400, (purely just the points for betting after reducing positions, not guaranteed to reach) remember to carry the breakeven loss when reducing positions, today's task is completed, going to sleep, welcoming tomorrow's 5000 points profit space, those who missed out should pay attention to around 915 to participate again, if you can't get there then you should also go to sleep early! #美股2026预测 $BTC
鄂B炒家
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Bearish
The E family army starts with 5000 points. Today's article strategy has currently achieved 3000 points, so is 5000 points still far away?
$BTC Currently, the lowest drop is around 90200, so we clearly pointed out in the morning article that Bitcoin rebounded to 93200 and whether the short positions around yesterday's 9 2 9 0 0 have completed 3000 points?
Are you still confused? Going long gets trapped, going short also gets trapped? Stop beating yourself up; your pocket can't afford such reckless turmoil. When you face liquidation, all you’ll say is: the one I feel most sorry for is my family!
Join the E family army, isn't it uncomfortable to play around in the crypto circle together? $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) #加密市场回调
The E family army starts with 5000 points. Today's article strategy has currently achieved 3000 points, so is 5000 points still far away?
$BTC Currently, the lowest drop is around 90200, so we clearly pointed out in the morning article that Bitcoin rebounded to 93200 and whether the short positions around yesterday's 9 2 9 0 0 have completed 3000 points?
Are you still confused? Going long gets trapped, going short also gets trapped? Stop beating yourself up; your pocket can't afford such reckless turmoil. When you face liquidation, all you’ll say is: the one I feel most sorry for is my family!
Join the E family army, isn't it uncomfortable to play around in the crypto circle together? $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) #加密市场回调
The E family army starts with 5000 points. Today's article strategy has currently achieved 3000 points, so is 5000 points still far away?
$BTC Currently, the lowest drop is around 90200, so we clearly pointed out in the morning article that Bitcoin rebounded to 93200 and whether the short positions around yesterday's 9 2 9 0 0 have completed 3000 points?
Are you still confused? Going long gets trapped, going short also gets trapped? Stop beating yourself up; your pocket can't afford such reckless turmoil. When you face liquidation, all you’ll say is: the one I feel most sorry for is my family!
Join the E family army, isn't it uncomfortable to play around in the crypto circle together? $BTC #加密市场回调
鄂B炒家
--
Bitcoin's fierce battle at $92,000, can the key support hold? Daily strategy analysis
Bitcoin, known as 'digital gold', has recently dimmed in luster, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting the $92,000 mark. Market sentiment appears to be one of panic, but often during such times, opportunities are quietly brewing. Yesterday, Bitcoin once again staged a 'roller coaster' market, first briefly breaking below $89,000, dipping to around $88,600, and then rebounding strongly—perfectly aligning with the long position strategy of $89,450 to $89,000 mentioned in our article yesterday, with the first target of $92,500 already achieved. 📉 Market sentiment and price trends The continuous decline over 43 days has brought Bitcoin its most severe round of adjustment since 2017. Panic selling has intensified, threatening not only the psychological 'Maginot Line' at $90,000 but even briefly breaking below $89,000, setting a new low in nearly seven months.
Isn’t the price trend of Bitcoin just going up and down? Is it really that difficult? Why is it that as soon as you take action, you get trapped? As soon as you sell, you miss out? In fact, grasping the market isn’t that hard!
The day before yesterday, we publicly stated in black and white in our article that everyone should short Bitcoin around 92900 to 94000. It only reached around 93800 at its peak and then began to plunge to the 88600 level. We then connected with our long positions around 89450 to 89000 from yesterday, and today we advised everyone to clear 80% of their positions near 92900. This morning, we once again publicly advised everyone to participate in shorting around 93200 to 94400. Isn’t this just another seamless connection to the short positions? Is it difficult? Not really, right?
Short position on the 18th: 93800-88600=5200 points Long position on the 19th: 93200-89000=4200 points Short position on the 20th: 93200-91800=1400 points (currently still in profit) Current 3-day profit: 5200+4200+1400=10800 points,
This is just the data from the past 3 days. This month's dual long and short scripts are everywhere. Those interested can refer to the article for more details,
Bitcoin's fierce battle at $92,000, can the key support hold? Daily strategy analysis
Bitcoin, known as 'digital gold', has recently dimmed in luster, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting the $92,000 mark. Market sentiment appears to be one of panic, but often during such times, opportunities are quietly brewing. Yesterday, Bitcoin once again staged a 'roller coaster' market, first briefly breaking below $89,000, dipping to around $88,600, and then rebounding strongly—perfectly aligning with the long position strategy of $89,450 to $89,000 mentioned in our article yesterday, with the first target of $92,500 already achieved. 📉 Market sentiment and price trends The continuous decline over 43 days has brought Bitcoin its most severe round of adjustment since 2017. Panic selling has intensified, threatening not only the psychological 'Maginot Line' at $90,000 but even briefly breaking below $89,000, setting a new low in nearly seven months.
Bitcoin's fierce battle at $92,000, can the key support hold? Daily strategy analysis
Bitcoin, known as 'digital gold', has recently dimmed in luster, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting the $92,000 mark. Market sentiment appears to be one of panic, but often during such times, opportunities are quietly brewing. Yesterday, Bitcoin once again staged a 'roller coaster' market, first briefly breaking below $89,000, dipping to around $88,600, and then rebounding strongly—perfectly aligning with the long position strategy of $89,450 to $89,000 mentioned in our article yesterday, with the first target of $92,500 already achieved. 📉 Market sentiment and price trends The continuous decline over 43 days has brought Bitcoin its most severe round of adjustment since 2017. Panic selling has intensified, threatening not only the psychological 'Maginot Line' at $90,000 but even briefly breaking below $89,000, setting a new low in nearly seven months.
Bitcoin has rebounded from the bottom, following the long position suggested in our article at 89450–89000. Note that the first target of 92500 has been completed, consider reducing your position, and be aware to clear 80% of your position near 92900. If faced with resistance, refer to the points mentioned in the article to enter short positions in batches, and don't take on too heavy a position. This round may also directly break through 94000. Trading has no certainty; it can only be approached with stability! #特朗普取消农产品关税 $BTC
鄂B炒家
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Bitcoin plays high-altitude bungee jumping! After briefly losing the $90,000 threshold, it rebounded, with 180,000 people liquidated late at night.
Digital gold's luster has dimmed, as Bitcoin fell back to pre-liberation levels overnight. The $90,000 defense line is like a layer of window paper, easily punctured under the dual pressure of Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations and leveraged liquidations.
The Bitcoin market experienced a shocking scene, with the price falling below the $90,000 mark, dipping as low as $89,000, setting a new low since April. This nearly month-long decline has caused a total evaporation of $1.2 trillion in the cryptocurrency market, equivalent to the entire market capitalization of a Tesla company.
In the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency investors have been sleepless. Over 113,000 people across the network faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount reaching $288 million. Many investors lamented on social media: "It's a total disaster, my account has shrunk by half!"