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#比特币 何时是购买BTC的最佳时机？
有一个有趣的指标SOPR（已花费产出利润率——显示投资者是以盈利还是亏损状态出售他们的BTC）。
从历史数据来看，最佳的积累时机出现在SOPR低于1时（此时多数长期投资者正在亏损卖出），而市场底部区域往往在0.50附近。
目前SOPR处于1.40水平，这表明BTC正在盈利状态下被抛售，市场距离最具吸引力的买入区域尚远。
$BTC
有一个有趣的指标SOPR（已花费产出利润率——显示投资者是以盈利还是亏损状态出售他们的BTC）。
从历史数据来看，最佳的积累时机出现在SOPR低于1时（此时多数长期投资者正在亏损卖出），而市场底部区域往往在0.50附近。
目前SOPR处于1.40水平，这表明BTC正在盈利状态下被抛售，市场距离最具吸引力的买入区域尚远。
$BTC
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#狗狗币🐶买起来
$DOGE
狗狗币今日迎来12岁生日
2013年12月6日，比利·马库斯和杰克逊·帕尔默以戏谑加密货币热潮为目的创造了狗狗币。
谁能料到，这个「模因币」竟成长为市值220亿美元、稳居CoinMarketCap第九位的项目？
该项目官方X账号至今仍写着：
“埃隆·马斯克觉得我们很酷。”
事实如此，马斯克多年持续为狗狗币站台。他的每条推文都能让行情坐上过山车。
如今再看，狗狗币早已超越单纯模因，成为加密文化的一部分。
虽无强劲基本面，亦缺乏实际用例，但品牌效应与社区力量始终维持其生命力。
自2013年以来，一个玩笑蜕变成象征：市场不仅由数据驱动，更由情绪推动。
$DOGE
狗狗币今日迎来12岁生日
2013年12月6日，比利·马库斯和杰克逊·帕尔默以戏谑加密货币热潮为目的创造了狗狗币。
谁能料到，这个「模因币」竟成长为市值220亿美元、稳居CoinMarketCap第九位的项目？
该项目官方X账号至今仍写着：
“埃隆·马斯克觉得我们很酷。”
事实如此，马斯克多年持续为狗狗币站台。他的每条推文都能让行情坐上过山车。
如今再看，狗狗币早已超越单纯模因，成为加密文化的一部分。
虽无强劲基本面，亦缺乏实际用例，但品牌效应与社区力量始终维持其生命力。
自2013年以来，一个玩笑蜕变成象征：市场不仅由数据驱动，更由情绪推动。
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#降息预期
The probability of a rate cut has exceeded 90%.
Only 4 days remain until this week's core event, and the market has fully absorbed the baseline scenario, anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut.
Here is an objective analysis of the current situation:
1) Rate cut of 25 basis points
A slight increase or continued sideways movement. This scenario has been fully anticipated by the market.
Even a slight decline would not be surprising, as a few statements from Powell could trigger a chain sell-off.
2) Rate cut of 50 basis points
This would ignite a euphoric market rally. A strong impulsive surge.
The market has not fully absorbed this expectation, and the reaction will be extremely intense and bullish. It is considered a "very low probability scenario."
3) Maintain interest rates
A major negative surprise.
A failure to meet market expectations would lead to a deep correction, testing previous low levels.
4) Rate hike of 25 basis points
A systemic black swan event. The entire market will suffer a severe blow.
My judgment
99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut
1% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut
The probability of a rate cut has exceeded 90%.
Only 4 days remain until this week's core event, and the market has fully absorbed the baseline scenario, anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut.
Here is an objective analysis of the current situation:
1) Rate cut of 25 basis points
A slight increase or continued sideways movement. This scenario has been fully anticipated by the market.
Even a slight decline would not be surprising, as a few statements from Powell could trigger a chain sell-off.
2) Rate cut of 50 basis points
This would ignite a euphoric market rally. A strong impulsive surge.
The market has not fully absorbed this expectation, and the reaction will be extremely intense and bullish. It is considered a "very low probability scenario."
3) Maintain interest rates
A major negative surprise.
A failure to meet market expectations would lead to a deep correction, testing previous low levels.
4) Rate hike of 25 basis points
A systemic black swan event. The entire market will suffer a severe blow.
My judgment
99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut
1% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut
See original
When you are still anxiously worried that your small investments in cryptocurrencies are being watched
You might as well take a look at this guy...
You will know
That little issue of yours is not really an issue #USDT🔥🔥🔥
You might as well take a look at this guy...
You will know
That little issue of yours is not really an issue #USDT🔥🔥🔥
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#cme Last weekend, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange suspended operations, and various theories emerged in the market, including system crashes, bugs, hacker attacks, etc. Unexpectedly, it turned out to be just a simple human operational failure at the data center.
I have to say, this world is just a makeshift stage.
I have to say, this world is just a makeshift stage.
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#何一币安 Riding the trend with meme coins is no longer viable
Just now, He Yi posted that some communities are misinterpreting the content of posts based on Binance, #CZ , related to meme coins, which has nothing to do with him. Also, one cannot remain silent just because they might be concerned about being associated with the trend.
Just now, He Yi posted that some communities are misinterpreting the content of posts based on Binance, #CZ , related to meme coins, which has nothing to do with him. Also, one cannot remain silent just because they might be concerned about being associated with the trend.
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The direction will soon be determined
This level may either become a local bottom like in 2021 or start a new bear market cycle like in 2022.
This level may either become a local bottom like in 2021 or start a new bear market cycle like in 2022.
See original
See original
Changes in the cryptocurrency circle over 1-4 years
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The North American version of 'Cryptocurrency 2017' is coming soon
A few days ago, Wall Street collectively sang bearish, and it all changed overnight
Anyone can issue tokens, with innovations in the crypto space exempt from regulations, allowing for early work without worrying about policy fluctuations.
The chairman of the SEC stated last night that the bill is expected to pass and be introduced soon. It ensures that tokens strongly related to the blockchain are classified as digital goods, rather than securities.
At the same time, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and other businesses related to digital goods only need to register with the CFTC Commodity Commission, rather than the SEC Securities.
A few days ago, Wall Street collectively sang bearish, and it all changed overnight
Anyone can issue tokens, with innovations in the crypto space exempt from regulations, allowing for early work without worrying about policy fluctuations.
The chairman of the SEC stated last night that the bill is expected to pass and be introduced soon. It ensures that tokens strongly related to the blockchain are classified as digital goods, rather than securities.
At the same time, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and other businesses related to digital goods only need to register with the CFTC Commodity Commission, rather than the SEC Securities.
See original
#币安人生 is one step away from a surge!
According to the latest log on December 3rd, Binance spot is expected to gradually support UTF-8 encoding in the next two weeks. Simply put, in the future, when listing tokens, Chinese characters and emoji symbols can be used as trading pair names!
🔥 This is definitely a significant boost for projects in the Chinese market, directly elevating the landscape.
Market perception is always the fastest! At the same time, the BSC chain has already popped the champagne 🥂 as several iconic Chinese meme coins are being pulled up with huge investments:
$币安人生 has retraced three times in a row, confirming that the ascending channel has not been broken, current price is a buy;
$恶俗企鹅 has a stronger vulgar penguin trend, just one step away from breaking the previous high;
$哈基米 has a trend similar to Binance's.
According to the latest log on December 3rd, Binance spot is expected to gradually support UTF-8 encoding in the next two weeks. Simply put, in the future, when listing tokens, Chinese characters and emoji symbols can be used as trading pair names!
🔥 This is definitely a significant boost for projects in the Chinese market, directly elevating the landscape.
Market perception is always the fastest! At the same time, the BSC chain has already popped the champagne 🥂 as several iconic Chinese meme coins are being pulled up with huge investments:
$币安人生 has retraced three times in a row, confirming that the ascending channel has not been broken, current price is a buy;
$恶俗企鹅 has a stronger vulgar penguin trend, just one step away from breaking the previous high;
$哈基米 has a trend similar to Binance's.
See original
There are two key dates to note:
December 9-10, Federal Reserve interest rate meeting
The market generally expects a rate cut to be announced.
If the final rate cut is only 25 basis points (in line with general expectations), this will be seen by the market as a realization of short-term positive news, and the optimism that previously drove the market may weaken or recede.
If an unexpected rate cut of 50 basis points occurs (beyond market expectations), this will be seen as a larger positive, potentially further boosting market sentiment.
December 18-19, Bank of Japan policy meeting
The market is focused on its potential consideration of a rate hike.
If the Bank of Japan ultimately decides to raise rates, this is usually interpreted by the market as negative news, which may suppress overall market sentiment.
Given the different market impacts that these two events may bring, investors need to make corresponding investment decisions based on their own judgments before these key dates.
December 9-10, Federal Reserve interest rate meeting
The market generally expects a rate cut to be announced.
If the final rate cut is only 25 basis points (in line with general expectations), this will be seen by the market as a realization of short-term positive news, and the optimism that previously drove the market may weaken or recede.
If an unexpected rate cut of 50 basis points occurs (beyond market expectations), this will be seen as a larger positive, potentially further boosting market sentiment.
December 18-19, Bank of Japan policy meeting
The market is focused on its potential consideration of a rate hike.
If the Bank of Japan ultimately decides to raise rates, this is usually interpreted by the market as negative news, which may suppress overall market sentiment.
Given the different market impacts that these two events may bring, investors need to make corresponding investment decisions based on their own judgments before these key dates.
See original
#加密市场反弹
In simple terms, the reason the market rose today is mainly because the Federal Reserve officially stopped the reduction of its balance sheet, which improved investor sentiment. During the day, the Federal Reserve also provided $13.5 billion in short-term funding to the banking system, the second-largest single-day cash injection since the pandemic.
However, this short-term liquidity injection does not indicate a shift in monetary policy towards easing; rather, it is because the financial system is facing a severe temporary cash shortage, forcing the Federal Reserve to 'rescue' and supplement some liquidity, which is a one-time, passive operation. The key factor that will determine whether market funding will continue to be tight lies in a bank regulatory rule called SLR, which has not been relaxed — it still limits banks' ability to expand their balance sheets, make large-scale purchases of government bonds, and cope with the funding pressure created by Treasury bond issuance.
Therefore, this wave of increase is more of a market emotional reaction to the 'stop of balance sheet reduction' rather than the $13.5 billion actually solving the funding tightness issue. Whether short-term dollar liquidity will truly become loose does not focus on this temporary 'supplement', but rather on whether the SLR rule will be adjusted. If it remains strict, then this cycle of 'funding shortage - forced liquidity supplement' may continue to occur repeatedly, causing the market to fluctuate back and forth, and not forming a lasting environment of monetary easing.
In simple terms, the reason the market rose today is mainly because the Federal Reserve officially stopped the reduction of its balance sheet, which improved investor sentiment. During the day, the Federal Reserve also provided $13.5 billion in short-term funding to the banking system, the second-largest single-day cash injection since the pandemic.
However, this short-term liquidity injection does not indicate a shift in monetary policy towards easing; rather, it is because the financial system is facing a severe temporary cash shortage, forcing the Federal Reserve to 'rescue' and supplement some liquidity, which is a one-time, passive operation. The key factor that will determine whether market funding will continue to be tight lies in a bank regulatory rule called SLR, which has not been relaxed — it still limits banks' ability to expand their balance sheets, make large-scale purchases of government bonds, and cope with the funding pressure created by Treasury bond issuance.
Therefore, this wave of increase is more of a market emotional reaction to the 'stop of balance sheet reduction' rather than the $13.5 billion actually solving the funding tightness issue. Whether short-term dollar liquidity will truly become loose does not focus on this temporary 'supplement', but rather on whether the SLR rule will be adjusted. If it remains strict, then this cycle of 'funding shortage - forced liquidity supplement' may continue to occur repeatedly, causing the market to fluctuate back and forth, and not forming a lasting environment of monetary easing.
See original
The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the United States may soon experience a significant directional shift.
In simple terms, the regulatory approach is set to shift from the current chairman Gary Gensler's emphasis on "enforcement first, communication later" to providing clearer "exemptions" or friendly pathways for compliant digital asset companies. The goal is to reduce unnecessary litigation and encourage companies to innovate within a compliance framework.
Key Point Interpretation
What is the "innovation exemption"?
This can be understood as the SEC's intention to establish a "safe zone" or "fast track" for cryptocurrency companies that genuinely want to operate compliantly. As long as a company's projects and tokens meet certain specific investor protection standards, they can be exempt from some complex securities law constraints within a certain range, allowing for faster business advancement or listing (IPO).
How does it differ from previous regulations?
In recent years, under Gary Gensler's leadership, the SEC has primarily adopted a tough enforcement regulatory stance towards the cryptocurrency industry, often defining rules through litigation, which has left many companies feeling uncertain and passive. The new "exemption" idea sets the rules in advance, allowing compliant companies to operate and innovate more comfortably, creating a stark contrast.
What potential impacts might arise?
Accelerated product listings: The most direct expectation is that this will speed up the application and approval processes for ETFs of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as for crypto investment products (ETPs) that include multiple assets.
Promoting Web3 innovation: It provides a clearer compliance pathway for startups in the blockchain and Web3 sectors, which may attract more traditional capital and talent into this field.
Market sentiment boost: This is interpreted by the market as a long-term positive, as it reduces policy uncertainty and signals the mainstream financial system's further acceptance of cryptocurrencies. $BTC
In simple terms, the regulatory approach is set to shift from the current chairman Gary Gensler's emphasis on "enforcement first, communication later" to providing clearer "exemptions" or friendly pathways for compliant digital asset companies. The goal is to reduce unnecessary litigation and encourage companies to innovate within a compliance framework.
Key Point Interpretation
What is the "innovation exemption"?
This can be understood as the SEC's intention to establish a "safe zone" or "fast track" for cryptocurrency companies that genuinely want to operate compliantly. As long as a company's projects and tokens meet certain specific investor protection standards, they can be exempt from some complex securities law constraints within a certain range, allowing for faster business advancement or listing (IPO).
How does it differ from previous regulations?
In recent years, under Gary Gensler's leadership, the SEC has primarily adopted a tough enforcement regulatory stance towards the cryptocurrency industry, often defining rules through litigation, which has left many companies feeling uncertain and passive. The new "exemption" idea sets the rules in advance, allowing compliant companies to operate and innovate more comfortably, creating a stark contrast.
What potential impacts might arise?
Accelerated product listings: The most direct expectation is that this will speed up the application and approval processes for ETFs of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as for crypto investment products (ETPs) that include multiple assets.
Promoting Web3 innovation: It provides a clearer compliance pathway for startups in the blockchain and Web3 sectors, which may attract more traditional capital and talent into this field.
Market sentiment boost: This is interpreted by the market as a long-term positive, as it reduces policy uncertainty and signals the mainstream financial system's further acceptance of cryptocurrencies. $BTC
See original
#美联储何时降息？
According to the Wall Street Journal's classified intelligence, Kevin Hassett is currently leading the final five-person list for Trump. He is not just Trump's economic advisor; he is also one of the earliest and most publicly supportive figures in traditional finance to endorse Bitcoin!
Back in 2021, when all officials were FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) regarding Bitcoin, Hassett boldly stated: "Bitcoin is a good alternative to gold." He understands digital currency and has studied blockchain; he is not one of those old-timers who scream "scam" at the sight of BTC.
This is not just a simple personnel change; it is a precise strike against the "old financial temple."
Trump sent him with a very clear purpose:
To loyally execute "Trumponomics": In the coming years, greater monetary easing and more aggressive fiscal policies will need the Federal Reserve's "cooperation," rather than "checks and balances." Hassett is the person who will not say "no."
To send a "friendly" signal to the market: Nominating someone who understands cryptocurrency is a message to Millennials and tech capital: "Money and the future are on my side." This itself is a form of political narrative!
To reconstruct the rules of the game: A chairman who understands digital assets could completely change the current situation of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) wrangling, opening the ultimate green light for the second and third phases of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and even more crazy native crypto financial products.
According to the Wall Street Journal's classified intelligence, Kevin Hassett is currently leading the final five-person list for Trump. He is not just Trump's economic advisor; he is also one of the earliest and most publicly supportive figures in traditional finance to endorse Bitcoin!
Back in 2021, when all officials were FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) regarding Bitcoin, Hassett boldly stated: "Bitcoin is a good alternative to gold." He understands digital currency and has studied blockchain; he is not one of those old-timers who scream "scam" at the sight of BTC.
This is not just a simple personnel change; it is a precise strike against the "old financial temple."
Trump sent him with a very clear purpose:
To loyally execute "Trumponomics": In the coming years, greater monetary easing and more aggressive fiscal policies will need the Federal Reserve's "cooperation," rather than "checks and balances." Hassett is the person who will not say "no."
To send a "friendly" signal to the market: Nominating someone who understands cryptocurrency is a message to Millennials and tech capital: "Money and the future are on my side." This itself is a form of political narrative!
To reconstruct the rules of the game: A chairman who understands digital assets could completely change the current situation of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) wrangling, opening the ultimate green light for the second and third phases of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and even more crazy native crypto financial products.
See original
Add a little hope
To be honest, this round of excessive long positions is a necessary washout before the rise.
Currently, those fundamental triggers we expect to stimulate the rise have not occurred yet, except for the halt of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT), which is only starting today.
Therefore, it is reasonable to see a pullback at this critical moment (I would operate this way too).
However, bullish signals have already appeared.
Waiting for the interest rate decision.
The real bull market will arrive in the first half of 2026.
Stay calm and hold your positions steady.
$BTC
To be honest, this round of excessive long positions is a necessary washout before the rise.
Currently, those fundamental triggers we expect to stimulate the rise have not occurred yet, except for the halt of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT), which is only starting today.
Therefore, it is reasonable to see a pullback at this critical moment (I would operate this way too).
However, bullish signals have already appeared.
Waiting for the interest rate decision.
The real bull market will arrive in the first half of 2026.
Stay calm and hold your positions steady.
$BTC
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