Proekt_73

Santiment: "sharks" have started buying the dip in ETH in November.
Analysts #Santiment are recording significant accumulation of #ETH by large wallets against the backdrop of the November market decline. We are talking about so-called "shark" addresses - holders of 1,000-10,000 ETH, who traditionally set the tone for medium-term trends.
According to the authors of the analysis, it is these wallets that were key drivers of ETH growth in 2025. And after the aggressive sale of 1.3 million ETH during the period of October 5-10, they turned to active buying: from November 18 to December 2, these addresses accumulated 450,000 ETH.
At the same time, the Ethereum network experienced a strong surge in activity - more than 190,000 new addresses appeared in one day, which was a maximum for 5 months. And the growth of the network, as we remember, traditionally serves as confirmation of demand from new participants.
Against this background, the price of ETH temporarily rose to $3,215, recovering part of the previous correction. And although there is currently a struggle for the psychological 3,000$ - the initial impulse laid the foundation for a possible continuation of growth. Large holders are once again creating pressure on the demand side.

The autumn decline of BTC has caused the strongest surge in recorded losses since the FTX collapse at the end of 2022. Data from #Glassnode confirms the scale of the unloading.
But there is an important detail: the main blow has been taken by the STH segment (short-term holders). These are those who entered the market relatively recently and are now massively exiting at a loss. The losses of LTH (long-term holders) remain minimal - they are still sitting calmly and almost not participating in the sell-off.
In fact, the market shows a classic picture: panic - among new buyers; resilience - among the old. This reflects the structure of the current correction and helps to better understand who exactly is selling at the moment.

In social media, a parallel is drawn between the start of the previous alt season and the current BTC dominance chart. They point to technical similarities. However, this idea, apparently, is not gaining popularity - retail does not believe in the growth of altcoins.
Indeed, if you look at the historical pattern, after major corrections, altcoins usually show the strongest movements. This was especially noticeable in 2020-2021, when the market literally exploded with dozens of x's.
The chart that is currently spreading across social media compares three periods:
- Mini alt seasons of 2019 and 2020 - local spikes that arose after significant crashes.
- Full-fledged alt season of 2021 - a large, prolonged growth phase when altcoins were rewriting historical highs.
- The current zone of 2025-2026 - the structure looks similar again: a rebound from key resistance, a strong correction, and attempts to turn around.
But the market has not supported this thought yet. Volumes are weak, BTC dominance remains high, and altcoins look as if they were completely forgotten about when the celebration should begin.
The irony of the moment: the alt season always starts not when it is expected, but when everyone stops believing that it is even possible.

CryptoQuant: The current decline of BTC from ATH has reached 32%, the asset is at a turning point.
On the #CryptoQuant chart, it can be seen that the market has once again approached a zone that in the past provided two fundamentally different scenarios:
- First - 2021. At that time, a similar depth of correction became a local bottom and a push towards continued growth.
- Second - 2022. A decline of the same scale turned out to be the beginning of a full bear market, when selling pressure intensified, and the market fell much deeper.
Today, BTC is once again at a crossroads. At the same time, we would like to add - the context is now more ambiguous: weak growth in the number of large holders, pressure from derivatives, and falling spot demand. All of this increases the likelihood of the second scenario, although final confirmation will depend on the dynamics of the current range and the response of demand below.

Swissblock notes the weakening spot demand for BTC right at the annual opening level ($93,000).
What's happening now:
- The chart shows that buyers have tried several times to push the price up, but each impulse is absorbed.
- The entire zone 90,000-93,000$ is turning into "sticky resistance": money enters hesitantly, demand crumbles, and bulls cannot maintain pressure.
This is very important right now because #BTC is at a point where the trend structure for the coming weeks is being determined. Staying above - the recovery scenario remains in play. Losing it - the market returns to a phase of weakness.
It is critically important for bulls to keep the price above $90,000. Holding above restores the buyer's structure and relieves pressure. If we drop below 90,500-91,500$ - the bearish scenario is activated.
Swissblock identifies the next turning point at 88,500$ - there will again be a check to see if there is live demand. So far, demand has manifested. But it's important to hold the level.
For now, one can conclude - there is momentum, but it is fragile. Without confident spot trading, upward movement will constantly be disrupted. Entry points in the spot market are currently weak. Traders are waiting for confirmation of strength, a noticeable drop. The market is in a phase of indecision.

The forecast from P73 CryptoMarket Monitor is a rebound and continuation of the downward movement in the market.
The reason for these forecasts is the results of the analysis of the TOP-200 crypto assets by market capitalization:
- on the 2-hour timeframe, 43 assets, including BTC and ETH, showed potential low marks,
- on the 4-hour timeframe, 38 assets, including BTC, transitioned into a sustained downtrend.
Specific lists of these assets are available to subscribers of the algorithm.
In this situation, if BTC continues to rise - we will close the long position at significant signals for correction, such as potential high marks on the hourly timeframe + sustained downtrends on timeframes of 15 minutes and longer.

For BTC, there is a transition into a sustainable downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe. With basic targets of $89,368, $87,947, and $86,525. The level of potential breakdown is $92,923.
In this situation, for our long position, we set a stop at $89,188.37$ in positive breakeven, covering commission and funding. Because the risk of continued correction has now increased. Even despite the abundance of potential support levels on the 4-hour timeframe and above.
In case of continued correction, we will look for new reversal signals and the reaction from important horizontal levels.

BTC shows a Strong signal of potential low on the hourly timeframe, and we closed the short at +49.3%. At one point, it was +80%, but catching the low is always difficult. In total, we opened the short at $90,333.30 and closed it at $88,838.60.
Mirrored on the dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC - Strong signal of potential low on the high timeframe. Moreover, this is the third mark out of three. This adds positivity, since on the #BTC chart, it is only the second one.
Having closed the short, we are waiting for the opportunity to open a long. Also with a 30 leverage. Details later. The trigger for closing the short was the return of the price to a stable uptrend on the minute timeframe according to our indicator, for entering a long there will be a stable uptrend on the 5-minute timeframe.
The deal will be counter-trend to the 3-hour timeframe, therefore with a mandatory stop behind the low. And with signals of the high on the timeframe from hourly and older without breaking the downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe - we will be ready to return to short.
#Futures_trade in long, to summarize, will be opened for one compelling reason - the price showed a Strong signal of potential low on the hourly timeframe in the zone of $88,000-$90,000. Which, although concerning in its obviousness for many - can still become a reversal.