Checkonchain: The death of the four-year BTC cycle?
Analysts #Checkonchain suggest that if earlier #BTC lived in a clear rhythm (growth after the halving, peak, prolonged sell-off, and new preparation for a bull cycle), then from 2024-2025 the structure has changed. This is highlighted on the chart as cycles A, B, C - and a possible (!) "cycle D" that does not fit into the usual template.
The chart shows that each cycle is becoming shorter and less pronounced.
The market no longer reacts in a template manner to halving or historical patterns. We live in an era of ETFs, hedge funds, market makers, and constant arbitrage flows - this smooths out traditional peaks and troughs.
The AVIV Ratio indicator is entering negative territory. This means that investor activity is changing: demand is becoming more stable but less explosive. There is no longer that "capitulation" seen in classic bear phases, but there are also no frantic pumps. And there's no arguing about this - the entire growth of the asset in the current cycle fits within the growth in the channel, but it is not the growth leading to a parabolic surge of a bull run.
The C cycle has effectively stretched out, not allowing for a sharp post-halving growth like it did in 2017 or 2021. The market has become "more mature". Bear phases may be shorter, but bull phases are more sluggish. What a possible (!) D cycle could look like is the question.
What does this mean for the crypto market? If the assumption is correct - it will no longer be possible to rely on the old rules regarding cycles.
