子午日界数据员
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子午日界数据员
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Article
Three trades a day, 3,600U in monthly fees. 720U could be yours—but you didn’t claim itFirst, here’s something most people get wrong: fees aren’t charged on your principal, but on your position size after leverage.
With 2,000U in principal and 20x leverage, your one-way notional position is 40,000U. One opening trade and one closing trade means 80,000U in total volume. At VIP 0’s 0.05% contract taker fee, that’s 40U per round trip.
Three trades a day, 120U. That’s 3,600U a month.
Of that 3,600U, 20% could have gone back into your account—that’s 720U. You don’t need to earn a penny more; you just needed to enter a code when you signed up.
Find the option that fits you—don’t go through all that for nothing
First, you haven’t signed up yet. Enter a code during registration, and rebates start with your very first trade. It’s the easiest option—nothing else to do.
Three trades a day, 3,600U in monthly fees. 720U could be yours—but you didn’t claim it
First, here’s something most people get wrong: fees aren’t charged on your principal, but on your position size after leverage.
With 2,000U in principal and 20x leverage, your one-way notional position is 40,000U. One opening trade and one closing trade means 80,000U in total volume. At VIP 0’s 0.05% contract taker fee, that’s 40U per round trip.
Three trades a day, 120U. That’s 3,600U a month.
Of that 3,600U, 20% could have gone back into your account—that’s 720U. You don’t need to earn a penny more; you just needed to enter a code when you signed up.
Find the option that fits you—don’t go through all that for nothing
First, you haven’t signed up yet. Enter a code during registration, and rebates start with your very first trade. It’s the easiest option—nothing else to do.
With 2,000U in principal and 20x leverage, your one-way notional position is 40,000U. One opening trade and one closing trade means 80,000U in total volume. At VIP 0’s 0.05% contract taker fee, that’s 40U per round trip.
Three trades a day, 120U. That’s 3,600U a month.
Of that 3,600U, 20% could have gone back into your account—that’s 720U. You don’t need to earn a penny more; you just needed to enter a code when you signed up.
Find the option that fits you—don’t go through all that for nothing
First, you haven’t signed up yet. Enter a code during registration, and rebates start with your very first trade. It’s the easiest option—nothing else to do.
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After looking at a few sources, here’s my breakdown.
Everything was getting sold today. $BTC -6.010%, $ETH -8.222%. $AKE moved in the opposite direction, up 65.633% in 24 hours.
The high-low range came in at 151.4%, with a low of 0.001877 and a high of 0.004718. It covered in one day what other coins take a month to do.
Honestly, I’m not focused on this price spike. First, I want to see how deep its market is.
Trading volume: 303.7 million USDT; market cap: 98.22 million. Its circulating supply changed hands three times in one day.
What I’m really watching isn’t the price gain, but the fact that over 300 million in trading volume was poured into a circulating market cap of less than 100 million. That ratio is unusually high.
This suggests there’s real liquidity in the order book, not just a few players trading back and forth.
But the supply available to trade is very small.
Circulating supply: 22.796 billion tokens; total supply: 100 billion. At full dilution, that works out to 430.9 million.
At this point, it’s too early to talk about taking profits. All we can say is that the token has just been lifted a little off the floor, with a huge gap in overhead supply still waiting to be absorbed.
The current price is still 97.06% below its all-time high.
It’s like a warehouse full of goods, with only a little over 20% actually brought out for sale and the rest still sitting inside untouched.
5.982 million trades. This isn’t the kind of pace you get from institutions sweeping orders; retail traders are rushing in.
My take is simple: today wasn’t a market recovery. It was a token near the floor getting snapped up against the broader trend.
That’s where the disagreement lies. Those who chased in are betting on momentum; those who stayed are betting on the story.
What do you think? How many days would you dare to hold a token moving against the trend?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of the data. It does not constitute investment advice.
After looking at a few sources, here’s my breakdown.
Everything was getting sold today. $BTC -6.010%, $ETH -8.222%. $AKE moved in the opposite direction, up 65.633% in 24 hours.
The high-low range came in at 151.4%, with a low of 0.001877 and a high of 0.004718. It covered in one day what other coins take a month to do.
Honestly, I’m not focused on this price spike. First, I want to see how deep its market is.
Trading volume: 303.7 million USDT; market cap: 98.22 million. Its circulating supply changed hands three times in one day.
What I’m really watching isn’t the price gain, but the fact that over 300 million in trading volume was poured into a circulating market cap of less than 100 million. That ratio is unusually high.
This suggests there’s real liquidity in the order book, not just a few players trading back and forth.
But the supply available to trade is very small.
Circulating supply: 22.796 billion tokens; total supply: 100 billion. At full dilution, that works out to 430.9 million.
At this point, it’s too early to talk about taking profits. All we can say is that the token has just been lifted a little off the floor, with a huge gap in overhead supply still waiting to be absorbed.
The current price is still 97.06% below its all-time high.
It’s like a warehouse full of goods, with only a little over 20% actually brought out for sale and the rest still sitting inside untouched.
5.982 million trades. This isn’t the kind of pace you get from institutions sweeping orders; retail traders are rushing in.
My take is simple: today wasn’t a market recovery. It was a token near the floor getting snapped up against the broader trend.
That’s where the disagreement lies. Those who chased in are betting on momentum; those who stayed are betting on the story.
What do you think? How many days would you dare to hold a token moving against the trend?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of the data. It does not constitute investment advice.
Everything was getting sold today. $BTC -6.010%, $ETH -8.222%. $AKE moved in the opposite direction, up 65.633% in 24 hours.
The high-low range came in at 151.4%, with a low of 0.001877 and a high of 0.004718. It covered in one day what other coins take a month to do.
Honestly, I’m not focused on this price spike. First, I want to see how deep its market is.
Trading volume: 303.7 million USDT; market cap: 98.22 million. Its circulating supply changed hands three times in one day.
What I’m really watching isn’t the price gain, but the fact that over 300 million in trading volume was poured into a circulating market cap of less than 100 million. That ratio is unusually high.
This suggests there’s real liquidity in the order book, not just a few players trading back and forth.
But the supply available to trade is very small.
Circulating supply: 22.796 billion tokens; total supply: 100 billion. At full dilution, that works out to 430.9 million.
At this point, it’s too early to talk about taking profits. All we can say is that the token has just been lifted a little off the floor, with a huge gap in overhead supply still waiting to be absorbed.
The current price is still 97.06% below its all-time high.
It’s like a warehouse full of goods, with only a little over 20% actually brought out for sale and the rest still sitting inside untouched.
5.982 million trades. This isn’t the kind of pace you get from institutions sweeping orders; retail traders are rushing in.
My take is simple: today wasn’t a market recovery. It was a token near the floor getting snapped up against the broader trend.
That’s where the disagreement lies. Those who chased in are betting on momentum; those who stayed are betting on the story.
What do you think? How many days would you dare to hold a token moving against the trend?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of the data. It does not constitute investment advice.
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Everyone, I am going to open a large long position on $DKNG .
Take profit: 19.3693
Stop loss: 17.8105 👇
{future}(DKNGUSDT)
Now you may be wondering an obvious question: why am I going long at this position?
First, the location. The recent 20-day range is 17.2 to 23.9, current price 18.16,
standing at the 14.3% percentile. It has fallen 12.94% in the past 7 days.
I’ve only seen 17.2 touched once; it was pushed down and then recovered. There is support here.
The overhead supply is still pressing down, and the market is only this big, so my take profit is only 19.3693.
Today $BTC and $ETH are both selling hard; it can still stay above the lower boundary, which means selling pressure is fading, but liquidity is still thin.
I do not break position discipline. The average daily volatility is 6.66%, and take profit at 19.3693 is +6.66% from the current price, right at the upper edge of the average daily volatility.
Stop loss 17.8105 is -1.92% from the current price, which is the six-hour extreme plus an additional 0.5% buffer. Both numbers are within the average daily volatility.
Risk-reward ratio: 3.46.
At first glance I thought I saw it wrong; I checked twice before believing it.
It’s like receiving something downstairs: first make sure it’s steady, then look upward. At this position, I’m willing to take the gamble.
What do you all think? Would you wait until it breaks 17.2 before acting?
#DKNG #EVAA #cryptocurrency
The above is a record of personal trading system and data observations and does not constitute investment advice
Everyone, I am going to open a large long position on $DKNG .
Take profit: 19.3693
Stop loss: 17.8105 👇
Now you may be wondering an obvious question: why am I going long at this position?
First, the location. The recent 20-day range is 17.2 to 23.9, current price 18.16,
standing at the 14.3% percentile. It has fallen 12.94% in the past 7 days.
I’ve only seen 17.2 touched once; it was pushed down and then recovered. There is support here.
The overhead supply is still pressing down, and the market is only this big, so my take profit is only 19.3693.
Today $BTC and $ETH are both selling hard; it can still stay above the lower boundary, which means selling pressure is fading, but liquidity is still thin.
I do not break position discipline. The average daily volatility is 6.66%, and take profit at 19.3693 is +6.66% from the current price, right at the upper edge of the average daily volatility.
Stop loss 17.8105 is -1.92% from the current price, which is the six-hour extreme plus an additional 0.5% buffer. Both numbers are within the average daily volatility.
Risk-reward ratio: 3.46.
At first glance I thought I saw it wrong; I checked twice before believing it.
It’s like receiving something downstairs: first make sure it’s steady, then look upward. At this position, I’m willing to take the gamble.
What do you all think? Would you wait until it breaks 17.2 before acting?
#DKNG #EVAA #cryptocurrency
The above is a record of personal trading system and data observations and does not constitute investment advice
Take profit: 19.3693
Stop loss: 17.8105 👇
Now you may be wondering an obvious question: why am I going long at this position?
First, the location. The recent 20-day range is 17.2 to 23.9, current price 18.16,
standing at the 14.3% percentile. It has fallen 12.94% in the past 7 days.
I’ve only seen 17.2 touched once; it was pushed down and then recovered. There is support here.
The overhead supply is still pressing down, and the market is only this big, so my take profit is only 19.3693.
Today $BTC and $ETH are both selling hard; it can still stay above the lower boundary, which means selling pressure is fading, but liquidity is still thin.
I do not break position discipline. The average daily volatility is 6.66%, and take profit at 19.3693 is +6.66% from the current price, right at the upper edge of the average daily volatility.
Stop loss 17.8105 is -1.92% from the current price, which is the six-hour extreme plus an additional 0.5% buffer. Both numbers are within the average daily volatility.
Risk-reward ratio: 3.46.
At first glance I thought I saw it wrong; I checked twice before believing it.
It’s like receiving something downstairs: first make sure it’s steady, then look upward. At this position, I’m willing to take the gamble.
What do you all think? Would you wait until it breaks 17.2 before acting?
#DKNG #EVAA #cryptocurrency
The above is a record of personal trading system and data observations and does not constitute investment advice
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Nvidia’s share price has fallen about 25% from its October peak, wiping out nearly $1.4 trillion in market value.
On Thursday alone, it lost nearly another $450 billion in market value. U.S. financial commentator Jim Cramer said the AI darling should buy back its own shares.
A buyback is when a company uses cash to purchase its own shares. The steeper the drop, the more likely this proposal is to come up.
#USStocks
Nvidia’s share price has fallen about 25% from its October peak, wiping out nearly $1.4 trillion in market value.
On Thursday alone, it lost nearly another $450 billion in market value. U.S. financial commentator Jim Cramer said the AI darling should buy back its own shares.
A buyback is when a company uses cash to purchase its own shares. The steeper the drop, the more likely this proposal is to come up.
#USStocks
On Thursday alone, it lost nearly another $450 billion in market value. U.S. financial commentator Jim Cramer said the AI darling should buy back its own shares.
A buyback is when a company uses cash to purchase its own shares. The steeper the drop, the more likely this proposal is to come up.
#USStocks
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Over 24 hours, $KORU fell 26.966%. Yesterday's daily candle had a high of 10.39 and a low of 6.09.
I'm looking at the positioning.
The 20-day range runs from an upper bound of 14.08 to a lower bound of 6.09. At 7.15, it's now sitting at just the 13.27th percentile—which means that over the past month, only a little over one in ten assets have done worse.
There was one number I had to check twice before I believed it.
Open interest rose from 10.05 million contracts to 15.55 million in 23 hours, up 54.649%,
but notional value only climbed from 96.2 million to 112.9 million. The price collapsed by a quarter,
while positions moved in the opposite direction, growing by half.
Who's taking the other side?
Long accounts make up 88.29%, while shorts account for just 11.71%, putting the long-to-short account ratio at 7.5397. The funding rate is still positive at 0.061882%;
yesterday at 8 a.m. it settled once at 0.106702%. Even after a drop like this, longs are still paying to hold their positions.
No one is willing to take profits first.
It's like a group of people all scrambling for the same table. There are only so many plates of food. Whoever gets closest to the kitchen gets served first; when there's no room to sit, they keep adding chairs, until there are more chairs than food.
Positioning matters more than the story.
The move down from 14.08 looks like a reservoir being drained: the water level falls step by step, eventually bottoming at 6.09. Even the rebound to 7.15 only makes up half a step.
The broader market is dragging too. Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.576%, and $ETH fell 7.887%.
It fell 26.966%—roughly four times as much as either of them. When liquidity tightens, peripheral assets are the first to be sold.
My take: increase attention, but don't chase. Wait for the funding rate to turn negative and open interest to come down, then see whether this wave of buying support is real or not.
What do you all think?
#KORU #比特币 #Crypto
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
Over 24 hours, $KORU fell 26.966%. Yesterday's daily candle had a high of 10.39 and a low of 6.09.
I'm looking at the positioning.
The 20-day range runs from an upper bound of 14.08 to a lower bound of 6.09. At 7.15, it's now sitting at just the 13.27th percentile—which means that over the past month, only a little over one in ten assets have done worse.
There was one number I had to check twice before I believed it.
Open interest rose from 10.05 million contracts to 15.55 million in 23 hours, up 54.649%,
but notional value only climbed from 96.2 million to 112.9 million. The price collapsed by a quarter,
while positions moved in the opposite direction, growing by half.
Who's taking the other side?
Long accounts make up 88.29%, while shorts account for just 11.71%, putting the long-to-short account ratio at 7.5397. The funding rate is still positive at 0.061882%;
yesterday at 8 a.m. it settled once at 0.106702%. Even after a drop like this, longs are still paying to hold their positions.
No one is willing to take profits first.
It's like a group of people all scrambling for the same table. There are only so many plates of food. Whoever gets closest to the kitchen gets served first; when there's no room to sit, they keep adding chairs, until there are more chairs than food.
Positioning matters more than the story.
The move down from 14.08 looks like a reservoir being drained: the water level falls step by step, eventually bottoming at 6.09. Even the rebound to 7.15 only makes up half a step.
The broader market is dragging too. Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.576%, and $ETH fell 7.887%.
It fell 26.966%—roughly four times as much as either of them. When liquidity tightens, peripheral assets are the first to be sold.
My take: increase attention, but don't chase. Wait for the funding rate to turn negative and open interest to come down, then see whether this wave of buying support is real or not.
What do you all think?
#KORU #比特币 #Crypto
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
I'm looking at the positioning.
The 20-day range runs from an upper bound of 14.08 to a lower bound of 6.09. At 7.15, it's now sitting at just the 13.27th percentile—which means that over the past month, only a little over one in ten assets have done worse.
There was one number I had to check twice before I believed it.
Open interest rose from 10.05 million contracts to 15.55 million in 23 hours, up 54.649%,
but notional value only climbed from 96.2 million to 112.9 million. The price collapsed by a quarter,
while positions moved in the opposite direction, growing by half.
Who's taking the other side?
Long accounts make up 88.29%, while shorts account for just 11.71%, putting the long-to-short account ratio at 7.5397. The funding rate is still positive at 0.061882%;
yesterday at 8 a.m. it settled once at 0.106702%. Even after a drop like this, longs are still paying to hold their positions.
No one is willing to take profits first.
It's like a group of people all scrambling for the same table. There are only so many plates of food. Whoever gets closest to the kitchen gets served first; when there's no room to sit, they keep adding chairs, until there are more chairs than food.
Positioning matters more than the story.
The move down from 14.08 looks like a reservoir being drained: the water level falls step by step, eventually bottoming at 6.09. Even the rebound to 7.15 only makes up half a step.
The broader market is dragging too. Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.576%, and $ETH fell 7.887%.
It fell 26.966%—roughly four times as much as either of them. When liquidity tightens, peripheral assets are the first to be sold.
My take: increase attention, but don't chase. Wait for the funding rate to turn negative and open interest to come down, then see whether this wave of buying support is real or not.
What do you all think?
#KORU #比特币 #Crypto
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
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The late-October wick to 97.193 still hasn’t been revisited. $HYPE is sitting at 77.793, at just the 14.84th percentile of its 20-day range.
I looked at a few sources; here’s my synthesis.
I’m watching volume, not the size of the drop.
Over the past 23 hours, the price fell from 83.844 to 77.793, but open interest rose from 4.8 million contracts to 5.06 million. Positions are still there.
Volume left first.
The day it surged to 3.245 billion on 10-29 was the peak of these 20 days. Yesterday, it was down to just 891.5 million.
It’s contracted 72.53% in seven days—essentially cashing out the floating profits on the batch of positions from late October.
Honestly, I didn’t expect volume to dry up this much.
Is that good news or bad news?
The funding rate has been pinned at 0.005% for ten consecutive settlements, without budging. Leverage hasn’t picked up, and longs aren’t crowded either.
It’s like opening the sluice gates at a reservoir: as the water recedes, what’s exposed is rock, not a sunken ship.
In this stretch, $BTC fell 5.576%, $ETH fell 7.887%, and it fell 7.701%—they’ve basically settled at the same waterline.
Position matters more than the story.
The variable is the long accounts.
Long accounts make up 66.74%, with a long-short ratio of 2.0066; positions haven’t dispersed. Aggressive buying was only 0.8656 at midnight,
but returned to 1.0474 two hours later. Buyers are gradually coming back.
There are only a few plates to serve from. Whoever’s closest to the pot gets served first—and the pot hasn’t heated up yet.
My view is that when liquidity ebbs, I pay less attention and don’t make up a story to explain this pullback.
What do you think—is this a rotation of positions or an exit?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice.
The late-October wick to 97.193 still hasn’t been revisited. $HYPE is sitting at 77.793, at just the 14.84th percentile of its 20-day range.
I looked at a few sources; here’s my synthesis.
I’m watching volume, not the size of the drop.
Over the past 23 hours, the price fell from 83.844 to 77.793, but open interest rose from 4.8 million contracts to 5.06 million. Positions are still there.
Volume left first.
The day it surged to 3.245 billion on 10-29 was the peak of these 20 days. Yesterday, it was down to just 891.5 million.
It’s contracted 72.53% in seven days—essentially cashing out the floating profits on the batch of positions from late October.
Honestly, I didn’t expect volume to dry up this much.
Is that good news or bad news?
The funding rate has been pinned at 0.005% for ten consecutive settlements, without budging. Leverage hasn’t picked up, and longs aren’t crowded either.
It’s like opening the sluice gates at a reservoir: as the water recedes, what’s exposed is rock, not a sunken ship.
In this stretch, $BTC fell 5.576%, $ETH fell 7.887%, and it fell 7.701%—they’ve basically settled at the same waterline.
Position matters more than the story.
The variable is the long accounts.
Long accounts make up 66.74%, with a long-short ratio of 2.0066; positions haven’t dispersed. Aggressive buying was only 0.8656 at midnight,
but returned to 1.0474 two hours later. Buyers are gradually coming back.
There are only a few plates to serve from. Whoever’s closest to the pot gets served first—and the pot hasn’t heated up yet.
My view is that when liquidity ebbs, I pay less attention and don’t make up a story to explain this pullback.
What do you think—is this a rotation of positions or an exit?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice.
I looked at a few sources; here’s my synthesis.
I’m watching volume, not the size of the drop.
Over the past 23 hours, the price fell from 83.844 to 77.793, but open interest rose from 4.8 million contracts to 5.06 million. Positions are still there.
Volume left first.
The day it surged to 3.245 billion on 10-29 was the peak of these 20 days. Yesterday, it was down to just 891.5 million.
It’s contracted 72.53% in seven days—essentially cashing out the floating profits on the batch of positions from late October.
Honestly, I didn’t expect volume to dry up this much.
Is that good news or bad news?
The funding rate has been pinned at 0.005% for ten consecutive settlements, without budging. Leverage hasn’t picked up, and longs aren’t crowded either.
It’s like opening the sluice gates at a reservoir: as the water recedes, what’s exposed is rock, not a sunken ship.
In this stretch, $BTC fell 5.576%, $ETH fell 7.887%, and it fell 7.701%—they’ve basically settled at the same waterline.
Position matters more than the story.
The variable is the long accounts.
Long accounts make up 66.74%, with a long-short ratio of 2.0066; positions haven’t dispersed. Aggressive buying was only 0.8656 at midnight,
but returned to 1.0474 two hours later. Buyers are gradually coming back.
There are only a few plates to serve from. Whoever’s closest to the pot gets served first—and the pot hasn’t heated up yet.
My view is that when liquidity ebbs, I pay less attention and don’t make up a story to explain this pullback.
What do you think—is this a rotation of positions or an exit?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice.
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Everyone, I’m going to open a large long position at $USDEX .
Take profit: 7.09
Stop loss: 6.1491
👇 The rationale is below.
{future}(USDEXUSDT)
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I going long at this level?
The 20-day range has corrected all the way from 12.28 to 6.18. The current price of 6.54 is near the 5.9th percentile, leaving less than 10% room. I’ve checked this three times.
To be honest, yesterday’s daily candle made me uneasy. It plunged straight to the bottom of the range at 6.18.
But there was no follow-through after the drop.
On the 15-minute chart, it hovered around 6.54 for four hours. The closing sequence didn’t break below 6.18 again.
The weak hands who were going to take profits had already done so yesterday. A level only matters if the price can no longer fall; talking about levels while the price is still falling is self-deception.
Take profit at 7.09, +8.41% from the current price, based on the lesser of the 12-hour opposing extreme and the average daily volatility.
Stop loss at 6.1491, -5.98% from the current price, based on the 6-hour extreme with a little extra buffer.
Neither exceeds the average daily volatility of 16.43%, making the risk-reward ratio for this trade about 1.41.
Both the take-profit and stop-loss levels are within the average daily volatility. This is the positioning discipline I hold myself to; if it’s violated, I don’t enter.
In this stretch, $BTC fell 5.576% and $ETH fell 7.887%. It already finished falling yesterday,
but today it wasn’t dragged lower by the broader market. With liquidity this tight, the fact that it’s holding up means bids are still there.
What do you think? Is the buying support at this level strong enough?
#USDEX #牛来 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
Everyone, I’m going to open a large long position at $USDEX .
Take profit: 7.09
Stop loss: 6.1491
👇 The rationale is below.
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I going long at this level?
The 20-day range has corrected all the way from 12.28 to 6.18. The current price of 6.54 is near the 5.9th percentile, leaving less than 10% room. I’ve checked this three times.
To be honest, yesterday’s daily candle made me uneasy. It plunged straight to the bottom of the range at 6.18.
But there was no follow-through after the drop.
On the 15-minute chart, it hovered around 6.54 for four hours. The closing sequence didn’t break below 6.18 again.
The weak hands who were going to take profits had already done so yesterday. A level only matters if the price can no longer fall; talking about levels while the price is still falling is self-deception.
Take profit at 7.09, +8.41% from the current price, based on the lesser of the 12-hour opposing extreme and the average daily volatility.
Stop loss at 6.1491, -5.98% from the current price, based on the 6-hour extreme with a little extra buffer.
Neither exceeds the average daily volatility of 16.43%, making the risk-reward ratio for this trade about 1.41.
Both the take-profit and stop-loss levels are within the average daily volatility. This is the positioning discipline I hold myself to; if it’s violated, I don’t enter.
In this stretch, $BTC fell 5.576% and $ETH fell 7.887%. It already finished falling yesterday,
but today it wasn’t dragged lower by the broader market. With liquidity this tight, the fact that it’s holding up means bids are still there.
What do you think? Is the buying support at this level strong enough?
#USDEX #牛来 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
Take profit: 7.09
Stop loss: 6.1491
👇 The rationale is below.
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I going long at this level?
The 20-day range has corrected all the way from 12.28 to 6.18. The current price of 6.54 is near the 5.9th percentile, leaving less than 10% room. I’ve checked this three times.
To be honest, yesterday’s daily candle made me uneasy. It plunged straight to the bottom of the range at 6.18.
But there was no follow-through after the drop.
On the 15-minute chart, it hovered around 6.54 for four hours. The closing sequence didn’t break below 6.18 again.
The weak hands who were going to take profits had already done so yesterday. A level only matters if the price can no longer fall; talking about levels while the price is still falling is self-deception.
Take profit at 7.09, +8.41% from the current price, based on the lesser of the 12-hour opposing extreme and the average daily volatility.
Stop loss at 6.1491, -5.98% from the current price, based on the 6-hour extreme with a little extra buffer.
Neither exceeds the average daily volatility of 16.43%, making the risk-reward ratio for this trade about 1.41.
Both the take-profit and stop-loss levels are within the average daily volatility. This is the positioning discipline I hold myself to; if it’s violated, I don’t enter.
In this stretch, $BTC fell 5.576% and $ETH fell 7.887%. It already finished falling yesterday,
but today it wasn’t dragged lower by the broader market. With liquidity this tight, the fact that it’s holding up means bids are still there.
What do you think? Is the buying support at this level strong enough?
#USDEX #牛来 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
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Hong Kong’s Exchange Fund recorded investment income of HK$18.6 billion in the third quarter. In the same disclosure, Hong Kong equities contributed HK$9.1 billion, while bonds contributed just HK$300 million.
The two figures were listed separately, making the difference plain to see: equities accounted for nearly half, while bonds barely made a dent.
The nine-month figures were also included at the end: cumulative investment income reached HK$171.9 billion, with the third quarter representing just one part of that total.
Taken together, one quarter’s figures cannot determine the full-year picture; the nine-month trend gives a fuller view.
The bulletin did not break down where the rest of the income came from, so we’ll have to wait for a more complete disclosure.
#Finance
Hong Kong’s Exchange Fund recorded investment income of HK$18.6 billion in the third quarter. In the same disclosure, Hong Kong equities contributed HK$9.1 billion, while bonds contributed just HK$300 million.
The two figures were listed separately, making the difference plain to see: equities accounted for nearly half, while bonds barely made a dent.
The nine-month figures were also included at the end: cumulative investment income reached HK$171.9 billion, with the third quarter representing just one part of that total.
Taken together, one quarter’s figures cannot determine the full-year picture; the nine-month trend gives a fuller view.
The bulletin did not break down where the rest of the income came from, so we’ll have to wait for a more complete disclosure.
#Finance
The two figures were listed separately, making the difference plain to see: equities accounted for nearly half, while bonds barely made a dent.
The nine-month figures were also included at the end: cumulative investment income reached HK$171.9 billion, with the third quarter representing just one part of that total.
Taken together, one quarter’s figures cannot determine the full-year picture; the nine-month trend gives a fuller view.
The bulletin did not break down where the rest of the income came from, so we’ll have to wait for a more complete disclosure.
#Finance
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Everyone, $ETH dropped 7.41% overnight. Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.39%, and $SOL fell 5.76%. Of the three, it took the hardest hit.
Let me lay out where things stand: the current price is 2247.37, the 20-day range is 2172.85 to 2526.99, and it’s at the 21.04th percentile. It’s still a little over three points above the lower bound—like there’s still a finger’s depth of soup left at the bottom of the pot.
The leverage side is even more worth watching. Long accounts make up 79.29%, and the long-to-short account ratio is 3.8286. A little over two hours ago, it was still 3.787. At first glance, I thought I’d read it wrong. I checked twice before believing it. The price fell more than 7%, yet retail longs haven’t budged.
Over 24 hours, the price plunged from 2436.5 to 2247.4, while the number of open contracts shrank by just 1.95%—meaning not a single long was liquidated.
Notional value fell from 5.728 billion to 5.193 billion, a drop of 9.35%. Put the two figures together and it’s clear: most of the decline came from the price itself, not from positions being cut.
The funding rate is still sitting at the upper edge of 0.01%.
A 7% drop hasn’t pushed the funding rate into negative territory, which means longs are still paying to keep shorts afloat. To me, this isn’t a flush-out; it’s stubbornly holding on.
It’s like a reservoir releasing water: the downstream water level has fallen by three points, but the pool of water inside the dam is still sitting where it was.
The distribution of positions is where opinions diverge. No one has run for the exits during the drop, which means those who bought at higher levels are still holding on. If liquidity gets pulled out another layer, those holders will become the selling pressure in the next leg down.
Don’t mistake this level for a stepping stone to a rebound.
The direction of aggressive trades has flipped back and forth over the last four hourly candles. The ratios were 1.2831, 0.8751, 1.4646, and 0.8348. Longs and shorts are fighting each other, with no one-sided follow-through.
What do you all think?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data; it does not constitute investment advice.
Everyone, $ETH dropped 7.41% overnight. Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.39%, and $SOL fell 5.76%. Of the three, it took the hardest hit.
Let me lay out where things stand: the current price is 2247.37, the 20-day range is 2172.85 to 2526.99, and it’s at the 21.04th percentile. It’s still a little over three points above the lower bound—like there’s still a finger’s depth of soup left at the bottom of the pot.
The leverage side is even more worth watching. Long accounts make up 79.29%, and the long-to-short account ratio is 3.8286. A little over two hours ago, it was still 3.787. At first glance, I thought I’d read it wrong. I checked twice before believing it. The price fell more than 7%, yet retail longs haven’t budged.
Over 24 hours, the price plunged from 2436.5 to 2247.4, while the number of open contracts shrank by just 1.95%—meaning not a single long was liquidated.
Notional value fell from 5.728 billion to 5.193 billion, a drop of 9.35%. Put the two figures together and it’s clear: most of the decline came from the price itself, not from positions being cut.
The funding rate is still sitting at the upper edge of 0.01%.
A 7% drop hasn’t pushed the funding rate into negative territory, which means longs are still paying to keep shorts afloat. To me, this isn’t a flush-out; it’s stubbornly holding on.
It’s like a reservoir releasing water: the downstream water level has fallen by three points, but the pool of water inside the dam is still sitting where it was.
The distribution of positions is where opinions diverge. No one has run for the exits during the drop, which means those who bought at higher levels are still holding on. If liquidity gets pulled out another layer, those holders will become the selling pressure in the next leg down.
Don’t mistake this level for a stepping stone to a rebound.
The direction of aggressive trades has flipped back and forth over the last four hourly candles. The ratios were 1.2831, 0.8751, 1.4646, and 0.8348. Longs and shorts are fighting each other, with no one-sided follow-through.
What do you all think?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data; it does not constitute investment advice.
Let me lay out where things stand: the current price is 2247.37, the 20-day range is 2172.85 to 2526.99, and it’s at the 21.04th percentile. It’s still a little over three points above the lower bound—like there’s still a finger’s depth of soup left at the bottom of the pot.
The leverage side is even more worth watching. Long accounts make up 79.29%, and the long-to-short account ratio is 3.8286. A little over two hours ago, it was still 3.787. At first glance, I thought I’d read it wrong. I checked twice before believing it. The price fell more than 7%, yet retail longs haven’t budged.
Over 24 hours, the price plunged from 2436.5 to 2247.4, while the number of open contracts shrank by just 1.95%—meaning not a single long was liquidated.
Notional value fell from 5.728 billion to 5.193 billion, a drop of 9.35%. Put the two figures together and it’s clear: most of the decline came from the price itself, not from positions being cut.
The funding rate is still sitting at the upper edge of 0.01%.
A 7% drop hasn’t pushed the funding rate into negative territory, which means longs are still paying to keep shorts afloat. To me, this isn’t a flush-out; it’s stubbornly holding on.
It’s like a reservoir releasing water: the downstream water level has fallen by three points, but the pool of water inside the dam is still sitting where it was.
The distribution of positions is where opinions diverge. No one has run for the exits during the drop, which means those who bought at higher levels are still holding on. If liquidity gets pulled out another layer, those holders will become the selling pressure in the next leg down.
Don’t mistake this level for a stepping stone to a rebound.
The direction of aggressive trades has flipped back and forth over the last four hourly candles. The ratios were 1.2831, 0.8751, 1.4646, and 0.8348. Longs and shorts are fighting each other, with no one-sided follow-through.
What do you all think?
#以太坊 #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data; it does not constitute investment advice.
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Everyone, over these seven trading days, $NEAR has been taking the steps apart one by one, downward.
The last six daily closes make it clear: 4.431, 4.289, 3.866, 3.833, 4.008, 3.661,
with the current price at 3.771. That 4.008 in the middle was the only bounce, and it was pushed back down the next day.
The 20-day range is 3.625 to 5.459. It’s now at the 7.96th percentile, just four percentage points above the lower end.
I’ve looked at several sources. Here’s my synthesis: what’s worth talking about with this trend isn’t how much it’s fallen, but where the money has moved.
At the same time, $ZEC rose 1.568% against the trend, while $BTC fell 5.441%. Among the major names, privacy was the only one in the green.
The scarcity hasn’t disappeared; it has shifted elsewhere. New money is moving out of the public-chain narrative and crowding into a narrow track.
That’s the thing about a niche sector: the pool is only so big to begin with.
Just how narrow is it? That depends on whether it can hold up. It’s like a reservoir with only one channel left open, so all the water pours into that one outlet.
The number of contracts held fell just 1.71% over 24 hours, while notional value fell 10.08%. That suggests the price fell, rather than positions being cut.
The funding rate is still sitting at the upper edge of 0.01% positive. Longs are still paying, and no one is actively closing out.
The aggressive-trade ratios for the last four hourly candles were 0.9714, 0.9259, 1.0599, and 0.7969. Three show selling pressure. I checked twice before I believed it.
The disagreement isn’t about direction, but about who will let go first.
Don’t treat the 7.96th percentile as a safety cushion. It just means the water level is low; it doesn’t mean the bottom is right under your feet.
What do you think?
#以太坊 #ARIA #Cryptocurrency
The above reflects personal trading-system records and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice.
Everyone, over these seven trading days, $NEAR has been taking the steps apart one by one, downward.
The last six daily closes make it clear: 4.431, 4.289, 3.866, 3.833, 4.008, 3.661,
with the current price at 3.771. That 4.008 in the middle was the only bounce, and it was pushed back down the next day.
The 20-day range is 3.625 to 5.459. It’s now at the 7.96th percentile, just four percentage points above the lower end.
I’ve looked at several sources. Here’s my synthesis: what’s worth talking about with this trend isn’t how much it’s fallen, but where the money has moved.
At the same time, $ZEC rose 1.568% against the trend, while $BTC fell 5.441%. Among the major names, privacy was the only one in the green.
The scarcity hasn’t disappeared; it has shifted elsewhere. New money is moving out of the public-chain narrative and crowding into a narrow track.
That’s the thing about a niche sector: the pool is only so big to begin with.
Just how narrow is it? That depends on whether it can hold up. It’s like a reservoir with only one channel left open, so all the water pours into that one outlet.
The number of contracts held fell just 1.71% over 24 hours, while notional value fell 10.08%. That suggests the price fell, rather than positions being cut.
The funding rate is still sitting at the upper edge of 0.01% positive. Longs are still paying, and no one is actively closing out.
The aggressive-trade ratios for the last four hourly candles were 0.9714, 0.9259, 1.0599, and 0.7969. Three show selling pressure. I checked twice before I believed it.
The disagreement isn’t about direction, but about who will let go first.
Don’t treat the 7.96th percentile as a safety cushion. It just means the water level is low; it doesn’t mean the bottom is right under your feet.
What do you think?
#以太坊 #ARIA #Cryptocurrency
The above reflects personal trading-system records and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice.
The last six daily closes make it clear: 4.431, 4.289, 3.866, 3.833, 4.008, 3.661,
with the current price at 3.771. That 4.008 in the middle was the only bounce, and it was pushed back down the next day.
The 20-day range is 3.625 to 5.459. It’s now at the 7.96th percentile, just four percentage points above the lower end.
I’ve looked at several sources. Here’s my synthesis: what’s worth talking about with this trend isn’t how much it’s fallen, but where the money has moved.
At the same time, $ZEC rose 1.568% against the trend, while $BTC fell 5.441%. Among the major names, privacy was the only one in the green.
The scarcity hasn’t disappeared; it has shifted elsewhere. New money is moving out of the public-chain narrative and crowding into a narrow track.
That’s the thing about a niche sector: the pool is only so big to begin with.
Just how narrow is it? That depends on whether it can hold up. It’s like a reservoir with only one channel left open, so all the water pours into that one outlet.
The number of contracts held fell just 1.71% over 24 hours, while notional value fell 10.08%. That suggests the price fell, rather than positions being cut.
The funding rate is still sitting at the upper edge of 0.01% positive. Longs are still paying, and no one is actively closing out.
The aggressive-trade ratios for the last four hourly candles were 0.9714, 0.9259, 1.0599, and 0.7969. Three show selling pressure. I checked twice before I believed it.
The disagreement isn’t about direction, but about who will let go first.
Don’t treat the 7.96th percentile as a safety cushion. It just means the water level is low; it doesn’t mean the bottom is right under your feet.
What do you think?
#以太坊 #ARIA #Cryptocurrency
The above reflects personal trading-system records and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice.
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Everyone, I’m opening a large long position on $MSTU .
Take profit: 30.675
Stop loss: 24.7457
👇 Rationale below
{future}(MSTUUSDT)
You may be wondering the obvious question: Why am I going long at this level?
First, let’s clarify the position. The 20-day range is 23.69 to 39.12, and the current price of 26.48 is at the 18.1st percentile—just over 11 points above the lower bound and a long way from the upper bound. It has fallen 6.60% over the past seven days.
Based on the daily ATR14, daily average volatility is 15.84%. I’ve set the take-profit at that level, exactly 15.84% above the current price.
The stop-loss is at 24.7457, 6.55% below the current price, with an additional 0.5% buffer beyond the six-hour extreme. Both the take-profit and stop-loss are within the daily average volatility range. That’s my positioning discipline—I don’t widen the range just to make it look better.
The risk-reward ratio for this trade is 2.42.
The disagreement at this percentile is about positioning. At this level, liquidity is already thin: few are willing to buy, while many want to cash out.
The broader market is our point of reference. Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.441% and $ETH fell 7.406%. The whole market is deleveraging, and thinner markets collapse sooner.
MSTU is linked to a U.S. stock, so its moves are amplified when the underlying stock falls. It’s like the water level outside a dam dropping by one notch, while the pressure on the inside doubles.
I’m not watching to see how strong the rebound is; I’m watching to see whether leveraged positions have been fully cleared out.
If they haven’t, any bounce is just half a step up on the stairs—it won’t hold.
Honestly, I don’t hold products like this overnight. Clear positioning matters more than guessing the direction.
What do you think?
#MSTU #EVAA #cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
Everyone, I’m opening a large long position on $MSTU .
Take profit: 30.675
Stop loss: 24.7457
👇 Rationale below
You may be wondering the obvious question: Why am I going long at this level?
First, let’s clarify the position. The 20-day range is 23.69 to 39.12, and the current price of 26.48 is at the 18.1st percentile—just over 11 points above the lower bound and a long way from the upper bound. It has fallen 6.60% over the past seven days.
Based on the daily ATR14, daily average volatility is 15.84%. I’ve set the take-profit at that level, exactly 15.84% above the current price.
The stop-loss is at 24.7457, 6.55% below the current price, with an additional 0.5% buffer beyond the six-hour extreme. Both the take-profit and stop-loss are within the daily average volatility range. That’s my positioning discipline—I don’t widen the range just to make it look better.
The risk-reward ratio for this trade is 2.42.
The disagreement at this percentile is about positioning. At this level, liquidity is already thin: few are willing to buy, while many want to cash out.
The broader market is our point of reference. Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.441% and $ETH fell 7.406%. The whole market is deleveraging, and thinner markets collapse sooner.
MSTU is linked to a U.S. stock, so its moves are amplified when the underlying stock falls. It’s like the water level outside a dam dropping by one notch, while the pressure on the inside doubles.
I’m not watching to see how strong the rebound is; I’m watching to see whether leveraged positions have been fully cleared out.
If they haven’t, any bounce is just half a step up on the stairs—it won’t hold.
Honestly, I don’t hold products like this overnight. Clear positioning matters more than guessing the direction.
What do you think?
#MSTU #EVAA #cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
Take profit: 30.675
Stop loss: 24.7457
👇 Rationale below
You may be wondering the obvious question: Why am I going long at this level?
First, let’s clarify the position. The 20-day range is 23.69 to 39.12, and the current price of 26.48 is at the 18.1st percentile—just over 11 points above the lower bound and a long way from the upper bound. It has fallen 6.60% over the past seven days.
Based on the daily ATR14, daily average volatility is 15.84%. I’ve set the take-profit at that level, exactly 15.84% above the current price.
The stop-loss is at 24.7457, 6.55% below the current price, with an additional 0.5% buffer beyond the six-hour extreme. Both the take-profit and stop-loss are within the daily average volatility range. That’s my positioning discipline—I don’t widen the range just to make it look better.
The risk-reward ratio for this trade is 2.42.
The disagreement at this percentile is about positioning. At this level, liquidity is already thin: few are willing to buy, while many want to cash out.
The broader market is our point of reference. Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.441% and $ETH fell 7.406%. The whole market is deleveraging, and thinner markets collapse sooner.
MSTU is linked to a U.S. stock, so its moves are amplified when the underlying stock falls. It’s like the water level outside a dam dropping by one notch, while the pressure on the inside doubles.
I’m not watching to see how strong the rebound is; I’m watching to see whether leveraged positions have been fully cleared out.
If they haven’t, any bounce is just half a step up on the stairs—it won’t hold.
Honestly, I don’t hold products like this overnight. Clear positioning matters more than guessing the direction.
What do you think?
#MSTU #EVAA #cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
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300
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Beat expectations.
Atlassian reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $1.77 billion, versus analysts’ expectations of $1.72 billion.
Its full-year revenue growth guidance was raised from 13% to 13.8%, and cloud revenue for the second quarter is expected to grow about 27% year over year.
Not one of the three figures went down.
#USStocks
Beat expectations.
Atlassian reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $1.77 billion, versus analysts’ expectations of $1.72 billion.
Its full-year revenue growth guidance was raised from 13% to 13.8%, and cloud revenue for the second quarter is expected to grow about 27% year over year.
Not one of the three figures went down.
#USStocks
Atlassian reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $1.77 billion, versus analysts’ expectations of $1.72 billion.
Its full-year revenue growth guidance was raised from 13% to 13.8%, and cloud revenue for the second quarter is expected to grow about 27% year over year.
Not one of the three figures went down.
#USStocks
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Down 20.832% in a day: $SNDK plunged from 1045.76 to 794.26, with the current price at 827.58.
Over 24 hours, it plunged from 1045.76 all the way to 794.26 without a single meaningful bounce along the way.
The storage sector was treated like a punching bag today. Over the same period, $BTC fell just 5.414%, and $ETH fell 7.607%—that’s a difference of 3.8 times and 2.7 times compared with this one. Trading volume over 24 hours was 5.848 billion USDT. This isn’t being ignored; someone has taken control.
At first glance, I thought the data had gotten mixed up. I checked twice before I believed it.
The strange part is the open interest. The number of OI contracts rose from 320130 to 469523, up 46.86%; notional value rose only 17.19%. Positions are piling in even as the price falls. The long/short account ratio is 8.24, with long accounts making up 89.18%. After a drop like this, not a single trader holding on has left—their positions are still growing.
The funding rate is still positive at 0.036556%, so longs are paying shorts.
By my calculations, the 20-day range is 794.26 to 1427.06, and the current price is at the 5.27th percentile. The low of the previous 20 days, 1016.47, was breached long ago; the price is now 18.58% below that level. With the market this thin, there’s no support when it falls, so the price can only keep moving down one step at a time.
The last six daily closes were 1153.04, 1173.43, 1096.05, 1135.68, 1030.79, and 827.04—each lower than the last. I don’t try to call the bottom in a chart like this. I’m scaling back my attention and waiting for it to hold above 794 first.
Average daily volatility is 12.01%; today alone, it moved 1.7 ATR. When trading a coin like this, entry matters more than direction. Those who were too close to the fire got burned today.
What do you make of an order book where traders keep adding to their positions as the price falls?
#SNDK #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above reflects my personal trading system records and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice
Down 20.832% in a day: $SNDK plunged from 1045.76 to 794.26, with the current price at 827.58.
Over 24 hours, it plunged from 1045.76 all the way to 794.26 without a single meaningful bounce along the way.
The storage sector was treated like a punching bag today. Over the same period, $BTC fell just 5.414%, and $ETH fell 7.607%—that’s a difference of 3.8 times and 2.7 times compared with this one. Trading volume over 24 hours was 5.848 billion USDT. This isn’t being ignored; someone has taken control.
At first glance, I thought the data had gotten mixed up. I checked twice before I believed it.
The strange part is the open interest. The number of OI contracts rose from 320130 to 469523, up 46.86%; notional value rose only 17.19%. Positions are piling in even as the price falls. The long/short account ratio is 8.24, with long accounts making up 89.18%. After a drop like this, not a single trader holding on has left—their positions are still growing.
The funding rate is still positive at 0.036556%, so longs are paying shorts.
By my calculations, the 20-day range is 794.26 to 1427.06, and the current price is at the 5.27th percentile. The low of the previous 20 days, 1016.47, was breached long ago; the price is now 18.58% below that level. With the market this thin, there’s no support when it falls, so the price can only keep moving down one step at a time.
The last six daily closes were 1153.04, 1173.43, 1096.05, 1135.68, 1030.79, and 827.04—each lower than the last. I don’t try to call the bottom in a chart like this. I’m scaling back my attention and waiting for it to hold above 794 first.
Average daily volatility is 12.01%; today alone, it moved 1.7 ATR. When trading a coin like this, entry matters more than direction. Those who were too close to the fire got burned today.
What do you make of an order book where traders keep adding to their positions as the price falls?
#SNDK #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above reflects my personal trading system records and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice
Over 24 hours, it plunged from 1045.76 all the way to 794.26 without a single meaningful bounce along the way.
The storage sector was treated like a punching bag today. Over the same period, $BTC fell just 5.414%, and $ETH fell 7.607%—that’s a difference of 3.8 times and 2.7 times compared with this one. Trading volume over 24 hours was 5.848 billion USDT. This isn’t being ignored; someone has taken control.
At first glance, I thought the data had gotten mixed up. I checked twice before I believed it.
The strange part is the open interest. The number of OI contracts rose from 320130 to 469523, up 46.86%; notional value rose only 17.19%. Positions are piling in even as the price falls. The long/short account ratio is 8.24, with long accounts making up 89.18%. After a drop like this, not a single trader holding on has left—their positions are still growing.
The funding rate is still positive at 0.036556%, so longs are paying shorts.
By my calculations, the 20-day range is 794.26 to 1427.06, and the current price is at the 5.27th percentile. The low of the previous 20 days, 1016.47, was breached long ago; the price is now 18.58% below that level. With the market this thin, there’s no support when it falls, so the price can only keep moving down one step at a time.
The last six daily closes were 1153.04, 1173.43, 1096.05, 1135.68, 1030.79, and 827.04—each lower than the last. I don’t try to call the bottom in a chart like this. I’m scaling back my attention and waiting for it to hold above 794 first.
Average daily volatility is 12.01%; today alone, it moved 1.7 ATR. When trading a coin like this, entry matters more than direction. Those who were too close to the fire got burned today.
What do you make of an order book where traders keep adding to their positions as the price falls?
#SNDK #比特币 #Cryptocurrency
The above reflects my personal trading system records and observations of data, and does not constitute investment advice
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Venice Token has been sliding without much noise this time: $VVV , down 3.097% over 24 hours, closing at 21.153.
I checked a few sources. Here’s my synthesis.
The ugly part is its position. The 20-day range is 19.925 to 28.357, and the current price sits at just the 14.56th percentile.
Excluding today’s daily candle, the low of the previous 20 days was 20.469, and the price is now only 3.34% above that level.
There was a wick today that hit a low of 19.925, then fully recovered. It left me puzzled for three seconds.
This isn’t a crash; it’s a slow bleed.
I’m watching open interest. OI contracts rose from 980527 to 1096169 over 24 hours,
an increase of 11.80%; notional value rose only 7.14%. Positions have been piling up as the price moves down. The long/short account ratio is 0.6736,
with short accounts making up 59.75%. Yet the funding rate is still positive at 0.005%—shorts are getting paid.
Shorts are getting more comfortable as the price falls. That’s where the biggest disagreement lies. When the market is pushed down, everyone dares to add, but once the price gets back above 21.5,
we’ll have to see whether these positions become fuel for a rally or support—or which side gets out faster.
The last six daily closes were 23.352, 22.901, 21.34, 22.613, 21.518, and 21.156, with the center of gravity shifting lower one notch at a time.
The most recent 24 hourly candles are down another 4.904%. In a slow bleed, the easiest people to fool are those chasing a rebound and those adding shorts;
the tokens are changing hands every day.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.414%, while $ETH fell 7.607%. Its decline was only 60% of the former’s. The broader market sold off that hard, but it held without breaking lower,
which is why I’m willing to keep an eye on it.
Average daily volatility is 10.28%, and 24-hour trading volume is 54.589 million USDT. In a market of this size, one large order can change the direction.
I’m keeping it on my watchlist. A low price doesn’t mean it’s cheap. Let’s see if it can reclaim 20.469 first.
What do you think of a low-priced market where short accounts make up 60%?
#JCT #SKUU #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data; it does not constitute investment advice.
Venice Token has been sliding without much noise this time: $VVV , down 3.097% over 24 hours, closing at 21.153.
I checked a few sources. Here’s my synthesis.
The ugly part is its position. The 20-day range is 19.925 to 28.357, and the current price sits at just the 14.56th percentile.
Excluding today’s daily candle, the low of the previous 20 days was 20.469, and the price is now only 3.34% above that level.
There was a wick today that hit a low of 19.925, then fully recovered. It left me puzzled for three seconds.
This isn’t a crash; it’s a slow bleed.
I’m watching open interest. OI contracts rose from 980527 to 1096169 over 24 hours,
an increase of 11.80%; notional value rose only 7.14%. Positions have been piling up as the price moves down. The long/short account ratio is 0.6736,
with short accounts making up 59.75%. Yet the funding rate is still positive at 0.005%—shorts are getting paid.
Shorts are getting more comfortable as the price falls. That’s where the biggest disagreement lies. When the market is pushed down, everyone dares to add, but once the price gets back above 21.5,
we’ll have to see whether these positions become fuel for a rally or support—or which side gets out faster.
The last six daily closes were 23.352, 22.901, 21.34, 22.613, 21.518, and 21.156, with the center of gravity shifting lower one notch at a time.
The most recent 24 hourly candles are down another 4.904%. In a slow bleed, the easiest people to fool are those chasing a rebound and those adding shorts;
the tokens are changing hands every day.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.414%, while $ETH fell 7.607%. Its decline was only 60% of the former’s. The broader market sold off that hard, but it held without breaking lower,
which is why I’m willing to keep an eye on it.
Average daily volatility is 10.28%, and 24-hour trading volume is 54.589 million USDT. In a market of this size, one large order can change the direction.
I’m keeping it on my watchlist. A low price doesn’t mean it’s cheap. Let’s see if it can reclaim 20.469 first.
What do you think of a low-priced market where short accounts make up 60%?
#JCT #SKUU #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data; it does not constitute investment advice.
I checked a few sources. Here’s my synthesis.
The ugly part is its position. The 20-day range is 19.925 to 28.357, and the current price sits at just the 14.56th percentile.
Excluding today’s daily candle, the low of the previous 20 days was 20.469, and the price is now only 3.34% above that level.
There was a wick today that hit a low of 19.925, then fully recovered. It left me puzzled for three seconds.
This isn’t a crash; it’s a slow bleed.
I’m watching open interest. OI contracts rose from 980527 to 1096169 over 24 hours,
an increase of 11.80%; notional value rose only 7.14%. Positions have been piling up as the price moves down. The long/short account ratio is 0.6736,
with short accounts making up 59.75%. Yet the funding rate is still positive at 0.005%—shorts are getting paid.
Shorts are getting more comfortable as the price falls. That’s where the biggest disagreement lies. When the market is pushed down, everyone dares to add, but once the price gets back above 21.5,
we’ll have to see whether these positions become fuel for a rally or support—or which side gets out faster.
The last six daily closes were 23.352, 22.901, 21.34, 22.613, 21.518, and 21.156, with the center of gravity shifting lower one notch at a time.
The most recent 24 hourly candles are down another 4.904%. In a slow bleed, the easiest people to fool are those chasing a rebound and those adding shorts;
the tokens are changing hands every day.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 5.414%, while $ETH fell 7.607%. Its decline was only 60% of the former’s. The broader market sold off that hard, but it held without breaking lower,
which is why I’m willing to keep an eye on it.
Average daily volatility is 10.28%, and 24-hour trading volume is 54.589 million USDT. In a market of this size, one large order can change the direction.
I’m keeping it on my watchlist. A low price doesn’t mean it’s cheap. Let’s see if it can reclaim 20.469 first.
What do you think of a low-priced market where short accounts make up 60%?
#JCT #SKUU #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data; it does not constitute investment advice.
1
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Everyone, I’m looking to open a large long position on $CC .
Take-profit: 0.1021
Stop-loss: 0.092784
👇 I’ll put the levels here first; see below for my reasoning.
{future}(CCUSDT)
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I going long at this level?
First, let’s look at the chart. The latest 15-minute candle closed at 0.09615. The 20-day range is 0.09055 to 0.11628, putting the current price at the 21.8th percentile.
We’re only a little over six points from the lower end, so there’s very little room for a further drop. There aren’t many buyers waiting below; once the price gets above this level, the area above is a vacuum.
The seven-day change is -1.24%. It’s basically been flat for the past seven days and hasn’t sold off along with the broader market. After moving sideways for a while, positions change hands; once some of the people sitting on the sidelines leave, we’ll get a clearer picture of the buying support.
I stick to one rule when setting levels. The take-profit at 0.1021 is +6.19% from the current price, and the stop-loss at 0.092784 is -3.50%. Both moves are within the 7.15% average daily volatility.
Volatility is the ceiling for this setup. Neither the take-profit nor the stop-loss should go beyond it—push past that, and you’re practically catching a falling knife with your face.
The risk-reward ratio is 1.77—not great. I’m willing to accept it because I calculated the stop-loss using the six-hour extreme, with a 0.5% buffer. I checked it twice before I trusted the numbers.
At the same time, $BTC and $ETH are also moving down, and the whole crypto market is selling off. This one hasn’t broken down with the rest—that’s the point of divergence behind my bullish view.
What do you all think of this level?
#CC #TQQQ #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
Everyone, I’m looking to open a large long position on $CC .
Take-profit: 0.1021
Stop-loss: 0.092784
👇 I’ll put the levels here first; see below for my reasoning.
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I going long at this level?
First, let’s look at the chart. The latest 15-minute candle closed at 0.09615. The 20-day range is 0.09055 to 0.11628, putting the current price at the 21.8th percentile.
We’re only a little over six points from the lower end, so there’s very little room for a further drop. There aren’t many buyers waiting below; once the price gets above this level, the area above is a vacuum.
The seven-day change is -1.24%. It’s basically been flat for the past seven days and hasn’t sold off along with the broader market. After moving sideways for a while, positions change hands; once some of the people sitting on the sidelines leave, we’ll get a clearer picture of the buying support.
I stick to one rule when setting levels. The take-profit at 0.1021 is +6.19% from the current price, and the stop-loss at 0.092784 is -3.50%. Both moves are within the 7.15% average daily volatility.
Volatility is the ceiling for this setup. Neither the take-profit nor the stop-loss should go beyond it—push past that, and you’re practically catching a falling knife with your face.
The risk-reward ratio is 1.77—not great. I’m willing to accept it because I calculated the stop-loss using the six-hour extreme, with a 0.5% buffer. I checked it twice before I trusted the numbers.
At the same time, $BTC and $ETH are also moving down, and the whole crypto market is selling off. This one hasn’t broken down with the rest—that’s the point of divergence behind my bullish view.
What do you all think of this level?
#CC #TQQQ #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
Take-profit: 0.1021
Stop-loss: 0.092784
👇 I’ll put the levels here first; see below for my reasoning.
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I going long at this level?
First, let’s look at the chart. The latest 15-minute candle closed at 0.09615. The 20-day range is 0.09055 to 0.11628, putting the current price at the 21.8th percentile.
We’re only a little over six points from the lower end, so there’s very little room for a further drop. There aren’t many buyers waiting below; once the price gets above this level, the area above is a vacuum.
The seven-day change is -1.24%. It’s basically been flat for the past seven days and hasn’t sold off along with the broader market. After moving sideways for a while, positions change hands; once some of the people sitting on the sidelines leave, we’ll get a clearer picture of the buying support.
I stick to one rule when setting levels. The take-profit at 0.1021 is +6.19% from the current price, and the stop-loss at 0.092784 is -3.50%. Both moves are within the 7.15% average daily volatility.
Volatility is the ceiling for this setup. Neither the take-profit nor the stop-loss should go beyond it—push past that, and you’re practically catching a falling knife with your face.
The risk-reward ratio is 1.77—not great. I’m willing to accept it because I calculated the stop-loss using the six-hour extreme, with a 0.5% buffer. I checked it twice before I trusted the numbers.
At the same time, $BTC and $ETH are also moving down, and the whole crypto market is selling off. This one hasn’t broken down with the rest—that’s the point of divergence behind my bullish view.
What do you all think of this level?
#CC #TQQQ #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
1
375
·
--
Holy crap!
Bitcoin, the Nasdaq, the Dow… why are they all plunging?
Does anyone know what happened?
This damn market—another curveball every day!
Holy crap!
Bitcoin, the Nasdaq, the Dow… why are they all plunging?
Does anyone know what happened?
This damn market—another curveball every day!
Bitcoin, the Nasdaq, the Dow… why are they all plunging?
Does anyone know what happened?
This damn market—another curveball every day!
1
4
·
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Google is building its first data center in Wyoming, investing $17 billion.
Batteries made in America.
The fuel cells used in the project are manufactured in the U.S. by Bloom Energy. Partners also include Tallgrass Energy, Black Hills Energy, and American Electric Power (AEP).
#Technology
Google is building its first data center in Wyoming, investing $17 billion.
Batteries made in America.
The fuel cells used in the project are manufactured in the U.S. by Bloom Energy. Partners also include Tallgrass Energy, Black Hills Energy, and American Electric Power (AEP).
#Technology
Batteries made in America.
The fuel cells used in the project are manufactured in the U.S. by Bloom Energy. Partners also include Tallgrass Energy, Black Hills Energy, and American Electric Power (AEP).
#Technology
1
262
·
--
Partly True
The semiconductor basket sprang a leak.
$SOXL opened at 65.45, dipped as low as 42.13, and is now at 47.69, down 26.743% over 24 hours.
At first glance, I thought I was seeing it wrong. I checked twice before I believed it.
A tokenized contract offering three-times leveraged bullish exposure to semiconductors resets its leverage at each daily close. After a drop, it has to climb a much longer way back.
The 20-day daily range is 62.36 to 109.57. The current price of 47.69 is 23.52% below the lower bound.
Seven days: -45.526%. Fourteen days: -40.233%.
Trading volume: 10.465 billion USDT.
That kind of volume suggests positions are changing hands—not that there are no buyers.
The open interest is even more interesting: in a single day, it rose from 5.29 million contracts to 8.79 million.
The price fell 26%, while positions grew in the opposite direction by 66%. Long accounts still make up 85.43%.
Adding to positions as the price falls—that's catching a falling knife.
It's like a corner of the market collapsing while people keep squeezing in to grab a bargain. Whoever's closest to the pot gets burned first.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 4.51%, and $ETH fell 6.213%. The broader market is drifting down; semiconductors are being taken out at the knees.
The funding rate is +0.093434%. Longs are still paying shorts, leverage hasn't been flushed out, and liquidity hasn't returned.
My current take is to pay less attention and wait for these positions to be cleared out before talking about support.
What do you all think about the liquidation pace for three-times leveraged products?
#SOXL #比特币 #cryptocurrency
The above is a personal record of my trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
The semiconductor basket sprang a leak.
$SOXL opened at 65.45, dipped as low as 42.13, and is now at 47.69, down 26.743% over 24 hours.
At first glance, I thought I was seeing it wrong. I checked twice before I believed it.
A tokenized contract offering three-times leveraged bullish exposure to semiconductors resets its leverage at each daily close. After a drop, it has to climb a much longer way back.
The 20-day daily range is 62.36 to 109.57. The current price of 47.69 is 23.52% below the lower bound.
Seven days: -45.526%. Fourteen days: -40.233%.
Trading volume: 10.465 billion USDT.
That kind of volume suggests positions are changing hands—not that there are no buyers.
The open interest is even more interesting: in a single day, it rose from 5.29 million contracts to 8.79 million.
The price fell 26%, while positions grew in the opposite direction by 66%. Long accounts still make up 85.43%.
Adding to positions as the price falls—that's catching a falling knife.
It's like a corner of the market collapsing while people keep squeezing in to grab a bargain. Whoever's closest to the pot gets burned first.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 4.51%, and $ETH fell 6.213%. The broader market is drifting down; semiconductors are being taken out at the knees.
The funding rate is +0.093434%. Longs are still paying shorts, leverage hasn't been flushed out, and liquidity hasn't returned.
My current take is to pay less attention and wait for these positions to be cleared out before talking about support.
What do you all think about the liquidation pace for three-times leveraged products?
#SOXL #比特币 #cryptocurrency
The above is a personal record of my trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
$SOXL opened at 65.45, dipped as low as 42.13, and is now at 47.69, down 26.743% over 24 hours.
At first glance, I thought I was seeing it wrong. I checked twice before I believed it.
A tokenized contract offering three-times leveraged bullish exposure to semiconductors resets its leverage at each daily close. After a drop, it has to climb a much longer way back.
The 20-day daily range is 62.36 to 109.57. The current price of 47.69 is 23.52% below the lower bound.
Seven days: -45.526%. Fourteen days: -40.233%.
Trading volume: 10.465 billion USDT.
That kind of volume suggests positions are changing hands—not that there are no buyers.
The open interest is even more interesting: in a single day, it rose from 5.29 million contracts to 8.79 million.
The price fell 26%, while positions grew in the opposite direction by 66%. Long accounts still make up 85.43%.
Adding to positions as the price falls—that's catching a falling knife.
It's like a corner of the market collapsing while people keep squeezing in to grab a bargain. Whoever's closest to the pot gets burned first.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 4.51%, and $ETH fell 6.213%. The broader market is drifting down; semiconductors are being taken out at the knees.
The funding rate is +0.093434%. Longs are still paying shorts, leverage hasn't been flushed out, and liquidity hasn't returned.
My current take is to pay less attention and wait for these positions to be cleared out before talking about support.
What do you all think about the liquidation pace for three-times leveraged products?
#SOXL #比特币 #cryptocurrency
The above is a personal record of my trading system and observations of market data, and does not constitute investment advice.
1
1
1.7k
·
--
This time, it wasn’t the price that got hammered.
$BTC fell to 76443.6, down 4.51% in a day. The 24-hour high was 80927.5,
and the 20-day range was 75690.2 to 84875.2. The current price is only at the 8.25th percentile.
I checked a few sources. Here’s my synthesis.
Three things came to light overnight, and all of them were security-related. Two major exchanges simultaneously revoked API access for a third-party strategy platform,
after someone sent a fake Teams invitation. Someone is eyeing that $6.8 million Polymarket bet,
saying it could be recovered through a hard fork of Polygon. And the founder of another exchange admitted that its security team is seriously understaffed.
The story shifted as it spread: at first, it was just a technical notice about API access being revoked; then it was framed as an account security issue, and finally as a question of staffing and governance across the whole industry.
The first time I looked, I saw the price. It was only on the second look that I realized this sell-off was about trust.
Honestly, I haven’t quite figured this one out. There are several layers between the security incidents and the price action.
$ETH fell 6.213%, and $SOL fell 5.202%. SOL’s 20-day range is 89.8 to 109.18,
and its current price of 90.02 is right at the 1.14th percentile, almost breaking below the range.
What liquidity fears most has never been bad news—it’s one piece of news after another.
It’s like a late-night produce market: one stall gets inspected, the other vendors don’t dare turn on their lights, shoppers steer clear, and the remaining produce has to be dumped at a discount.
There’s no fresh capital coming into this market right now; existing capital is just shifting around.
I’m going to pay less attention to this sector for now and wait for the security incidents to die down before looking for support.
Do you think this is a technical issue or a people issue? Let’s talk in the comments.
#比特币 #以太坊 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of the data. It does not constitute investment advice.
This time, it wasn’t the price that got hammered.
$BTC fell to 76443.6, down 4.51% in a day. The 24-hour high was 80927.5,
and the 20-day range was 75690.2 to 84875.2. The current price is only at the 8.25th percentile.
I checked a few sources. Here’s my synthesis.
Three things came to light overnight, and all of them were security-related. Two major exchanges simultaneously revoked API access for a third-party strategy platform,
after someone sent a fake Teams invitation. Someone is eyeing that $6.8 million Polymarket bet,
saying it could be recovered through a hard fork of Polygon. And the founder of another exchange admitted that its security team is seriously understaffed.
The story shifted as it spread: at first, it was just a technical notice about API access being revoked; then it was framed as an account security issue, and finally as a question of staffing and governance across the whole industry.
The first time I looked, I saw the price. It was only on the second look that I realized this sell-off was about trust.
Honestly, I haven’t quite figured this one out. There are several layers between the security incidents and the price action.
$ETH fell 6.213%, and $SOL fell 5.202%. SOL’s 20-day range is 89.8 to 109.18,
and its current price of 90.02 is right at the 1.14th percentile, almost breaking below the range.
What liquidity fears most has never been bad news—it’s one piece of news after another.
It’s like a late-night produce market: one stall gets inspected, the other vendors don’t dare turn on their lights, shoppers steer clear, and the remaining produce has to be dumped at a discount.
There’s no fresh capital coming into this market right now; existing capital is just shifting around.
I’m going to pay less attention to this sector for now and wait for the security incidents to die down before looking for support.
Do you think this is a technical issue or a people issue? Let’s talk in the comments.
#比特币 #以太坊 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of the data. It does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC fell to 76443.6, down 4.51% in a day. The 24-hour high was 80927.5,
and the 20-day range was 75690.2 to 84875.2. The current price is only at the 8.25th percentile.
I checked a few sources. Here’s my synthesis.
Three things came to light overnight, and all of them were security-related. Two major exchanges simultaneously revoked API access for a third-party strategy platform,
after someone sent a fake Teams invitation. Someone is eyeing that $6.8 million Polymarket bet,
saying it could be recovered through a hard fork of Polygon. And the founder of another exchange admitted that its security team is seriously understaffed.
The story shifted as it spread: at first, it was just a technical notice about API access being revoked; then it was framed as an account security issue, and finally as a question of staffing and governance across the whole industry.
The first time I looked, I saw the price. It was only on the second look that I realized this sell-off was about trust.
Honestly, I haven’t quite figured this one out. There are several layers between the security incidents and the price action.
$ETH fell 6.213%, and $SOL fell 5.202%. SOL’s 20-day range is 89.8 to 109.18,
and its current price of 90.02 is right at the 1.14th percentile, almost breaking below the range.
What liquidity fears most has never been bad news—it’s one piece of news after another.
It’s like a late-night produce market: one stall gets inspected, the other vendors don’t dare turn on their lights, shoppers steer clear, and the remaining produce has to be dumped at a discount.
There’s no fresh capital coming into this market right now; existing capital is just shifting around.
I’m going to pay less attention to this sector for now and wait for the security incidents to die down before looking for support.
Do you think this is a technical issue or a people issue? Let’s talk in the comments.
#比特币 #以太坊 #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of the data. It does not constitute investment advice.
1
252
·
--
Everyone, I expect to open a large short position on $UVXY .
Take profit: 19.3062
Stop loss: 23.0538 👇
{future}(UVXYUSDT)
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I shorting at this level?
Volatility has a half-life.
Once panic spikes, it subsides on its own. That’s what makes it so different from crypto prices.
The latest 15-minute candle closed at 21.18. It’s up 11.63% over the past seven days. The 20-day range is 16.05 to 23.09, and the current price is at the 73.3rd percentile.
That’s on the high side.
At first glance, I thought that percentile was wrong. I checked twice before I believed it.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 4.51%, and $ETH fell 6.213%. The broader market is still searching for a bottom. I’m not chasing that move; I’m only trading a volatility pullback.
Here’s how I’m setting the take-profit and stop-loss.
Its average daily volatility is about 8.85%. I’m setting take profit at 19.3062, 8.85% below the current price, and stop loss at 23.0538, 8.85% above it. Both levels are within that range.
The take-profit level is 8.85 percentage points below the current price, and the stop-loss level is 8.85 percentage points above it. Both are within its average daily volatility.
This discipline matters more than getting the direction right.
It’s like a reservoir reaching the warning level: once the gates open, the water has to be released. Whatever rises has to come back down.
The risk-reward ratio is about 1.00. The potential gain and loss are equal. I’m relying on my win rate, not a big multiple, and the market’s disagreement hasn’t played out yet.
There’s only so much depth in the market. When liquidity thins, slippage comes first. I don’t plan to hold this position for long.
What do you think—how many more trading days can this wave of panic last?
#UVXY #EVAA #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
Everyone, I expect to open a large short position on $UVXY .
Take profit: 19.3062
Stop loss: 23.0538 👇
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I shorting at this level?
Volatility has a half-life.
Once panic spikes, it subsides on its own. That’s what makes it so different from crypto prices.
The latest 15-minute candle closed at 21.18. It’s up 11.63% over the past seven days. The 20-day range is 16.05 to 23.09, and the current price is at the 73.3rd percentile.
That’s on the high side.
At first glance, I thought that percentile was wrong. I checked twice before I believed it.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 4.51%, and $ETH fell 6.213%. The broader market is still searching for a bottom. I’m not chasing that move; I’m only trading a volatility pullback.
Here’s how I’m setting the take-profit and stop-loss.
Its average daily volatility is about 8.85%. I’m setting take profit at 19.3062, 8.85% below the current price, and stop loss at 23.0538, 8.85% above it. Both levels are within that range.
The take-profit level is 8.85 percentage points below the current price, and the stop-loss level is 8.85 percentage points above it. Both are within its average daily volatility.
This discipline matters more than getting the direction right.
It’s like a reservoir reaching the warning level: once the gates open, the water has to be released. Whatever rises has to come back down.
The risk-reward ratio is about 1.00. The potential gain and loss are equal. I’m relying on my win rate, not a big multiple, and the market’s disagreement hasn’t played out yet.
There’s only so much depth in the market. When liquidity thins, slippage comes first. I don’t plan to hold this position for long.
What do you think—how many more trading days can this wave of panic last?
#UVXY #EVAA #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
Take profit: 19.3062
Stop loss: 23.0538 👇
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I shorting at this level?
Volatility has a half-life.
Once panic spikes, it subsides on its own. That’s what makes it so different from crypto prices.
The latest 15-minute candle closed at 21.18. It’s up 11.63% over the past seven days. The 20-day range is 16.05 to 23.09, and the current price is at the 73.3rd percentile.
That’s on the high side.
At first glance, I thought that percentile was wrong. I checked twice before I believed it.
Over the same period, $BTC fell 4.51%, and $ETH fell 6.213%. The broader market is still searching for a bottom. I’m not chasing that move; I’m only trading a volatility pullback.
Here’s how I’m setting the take-profit and stop-loss.
Its average daily volatility is about 8.85%. I’m setting take profit at 19.3062, 8.85% below the current price, and stop loss at 23.0538, 8.85% above it. Both levels are within that range.
The take-profit level is 8.85 percentage points below the current price, and the stop-loss level is 8.85 percentage points above it. Both are within its average daily volatility.
This discipline matters more than getting the direction right.
It’s like a reservoir reaching the warning level: once the gates open, the water has to be released. Whatever rises has to come back down.
The risk-reward ratio is about 1.00. The potential gain and loss are equal. I’m relying on my win rate, not a big multiple, and the market’s disagreement hasn’t played out yet.
There’s only so much depth in the market. When liquidity thins, slippage comes first. I don’t plan to hold this position for long.
What do you think—how many more trading days can this wave of panic last?
#UVXY #EVAA #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
1
280
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