At this 27.6 level, we've seen a 4% dip in the last 24 hours, and shorts are actually pretty comfy. At least from my perspective, this is a zone worth taking action. The funding rate is currently flat at a negative value, -0.00043407, and shorts are still paying, yet the price hasn't bounced back. This indicates that the consensus on shorting is building up, and it hasn't collectively cashed out yet.
What we're playing with now is the expected difference in political event trading. With products like UVXY, the biggest fear isn’t the trend, but rather sudden events. Once the market starts to decline alongside negative funding rates, many will habitually add to their shorts. If this structure hits a policy change or some geopolitical surprise, it could swing wildly. The situation back in March was similar, with negative funding rates leading to a steady decline, and most people thought it was safe, only for one piece of news to crash it by 20%.
My current strategy is quite simple: follow the structure but not worship shorts. Here are the specifics: Direction: short. Leverage: 3x. Stop loss: 29.5, just above the previous high, so we don't get stopped out looking for excuses. Take profit: aiming for that 26 round number at first glance. Position size: 10% test order, no additions.
Shorting with a negative funding rate means others are essentially paying me interest, and the bearish rhythm looks fine. But I’m fully aware that at this position, if any tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts arise, or if Trump throws out another headline, the sentiment could reverse very quickly.
Trade Tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #UVXY
How much impact do policy changes have on UVXY?