行銷搬進大程式

【Decision outcome】
On September 18, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years since 1995. It was also the sixth rate hike since the BOJ ended its ultra-loose policy in March 2024. The decision passed with a vote of 7-2, with dissenting votes cast by board members Junichi Asada and Ayano Sato. This hike was only three months after the one in June, much faster than the roughly six-month gap seen with previous hikes—indicating the rate-hike cycle itself is accelerating.
【The market didn’t follow the script】
The outside world was already highly tense, and decisions like this tend to replay the script from August 2024—back then, an unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan triggered a massive unwinding of yen carry trades. Within 48 hours, the dollar amount collapsed from $64,000 to $49,000. This time, after the decision was released, instead of strengthening as the carry-trade unwinding scenario would suggest, the yen weakened. The USD/JPY pair briefly surged to a two-week high near 157.9. At the press conference, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda deliberately avoided making any clear commitment regarding the timing of the next rate hike. The yen’s weakness suggests the market is temporarily interpreting this hike as not immediately forcing a rush to unwind carry trades—this is the biggest difference from the 2024 episode.

【Breakthrough Moment】
During Bitcoin’s intraday trading on September 18, it surged from around $76,400 to near $81,000 in one go, marking the first time since September 7 that it has reclaimed the $80,000 level. The immediate trigger for this sharp rally was a wave of short liquidations—forced covering—concentrated within roughly an hour. The liquidation amounts cited across multiple reports ranged between $183 million and $192 million (different sources use different calculation methods, and some reports mention higher or lower figures). In terms of liquidation volume completed within a single hour, it was close to the amount that had previously taken an entire trading day of volatility to accumulate. $BTC It once touched near $81,000, and then held above $80,000 for consolidation.

【Decision Result】
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike at its September 16 FOMC meeting. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised to 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate increase since July 2023. Markets had already priced this outcome in very thoroughly beforehand—CME interest-rate futures had at one point implied an almost 90% probability. Therefore, when the decision was released, the $BTC reaction was limited; the price remained in the range of about 75,000 to 75,800 USD, and then briefly dipped below 76,000 USD. The interest-rate dot plot released alongside the decision showed disagreement among the committee members: 12 officials expected the year-end median rate to be 4.125%, 4 believed it would reach 4.375%, and only 2 expected it to stay at 3.875%. There is currently no consensus on whether there will be another rate hike in December.

[Regulatory Developments]
On September 17, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) formally submitted two proposed rules, “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions” and “Regulation Crypto Asset Markets,” to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) for review. The timing is just two days after the Senate vote on September 15 failed to clear the 60-vote threshold and after the CLARITY Act (the Digital Assets Market Structure Transparency Act) hit an impasse. The former covers trading, custody, and settlement processes for crypto assets, while the latter addresses the structure of the trading platform itself and its registration requirements. Taken together, the scope covered by these two rules overlaps to a great extent with the core issues the CLARITY Act originally aimed to resolve through legislation.

[Background of the Event]
On September 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a five-year “Innovation Exemption,” allowing approved tokenized securities trading platforms to, through on-chain permissioned automation, act as market makers and liquidity pools to trade tokenized Nasdaq/NYSE (NMS) stocks. This exemption was launched two days after the Senate narrowly rejected the CLARITY Act by a vote of 49 to 50. The market widely interpreted it as regulators finding another breakthrough path.
[Biggest Beneficiary]
Market statistics indicate that Solana currently hosts tokenized stocks with a value of about $465 million, making it the highest among all public chains. This is the result of the past two years’ ongoing development by on-chain teams building tokenized stock infrastructure—so that $SOL was directly identified by the market as the biggest beneficiary after this exemption news was announced. On the same day, the Solana network also completed the SIMD-0525 Phase 3 upgrade, reducing the target block time from 300 milliseconds to 250 milliseconds and increasing block production frequency by about 17% (however, the official announcement and reports both specifically emphasized that the per-transaction processing throughput limit itself was not increased at the same time).

【Breakthrough moment】
On September 18, Bitcoin surged in the course of the day, jumping from around $76,400 to the vicinity of $81,000 in one go, marking the first time since September 7 it has regained the $80,000 level. The direct trigger for this sharp rally was a wave of short liquidations—forced covering within about an hour. The liquidation amounts cited in multiple reports ranged from $183 million to $192 million (different sources use different calculation methods, and some reports mention higher or lower figures). The liquidation size completed within a single hour was nearly the same as the volume that had previously taken an entire trading day of prior fluctuations to accumulate. $BTC It once touched the neighborhood of $81,000, then later consolidated while holding above $80,000.

【Decision Result】
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike at its September 16 FOMC meeting, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate increase since July 2023. The market had already priced in the outcome quite thoroughly beforehand—CME interest-rate futures implied probabilities once reached nearly 90%. Therefore, at the time the decision was announced, the reaction was limited: prices remained in the range of about $75,000 to $75,800, and then briefly fell below $76,000. The interest rate dot plot released simultaneously showed disagreement among committee members: 12 officials expected the year-end rate median to land at 4.125%, 4 believed it would reach 4.375%, and only 2 expected it to stay at 3.875%. Whether there will be another rate hike in December is not yet settled.

【Message itself】
Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang publicly confirmed on Wednesday that the company has invested in the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL). He also said he personally holds a $ZEC token, but did not disclose the actual number of tokens or the amount purchased. Huang described Zcash as a “privacy-complementary asset to Bitcoin.” His reasoning is that as AI-driven network attack capabilities and quantum computing continue to advance, mechanisms that can reliably fund development over the long term become more important—ZODL completed a seed round of more than $25 million in March this year, and Paradigm, along with a16z crypto, Coinbase Ventures, and Winklevoss Capital, are among the investors.

【Resolution Result】
The U.S. Federal Reserve unanimously approved a rate hike of one quarter point at its FOMC meeting on September 16. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Ahead of the meeting, both the CME FedWatch and a Reuters survey of economists put the probability at over 85%. However, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket priced in less than fifty percent, creating a nearly two-fold discrepancy between the two data sources; the final outcome aligned with traditional interest-rate futures. In a rare move, Chair Waller did not update the dot plot immediately after the meeting. The market interpreted this as the Fed deliberately avoiding a clear signal about whether another rate hike would occur before year-end. At the moment the decision was released, \u003cc-10/\u003e briefly dipped toward the $75,000 level, but within a few hours it quickly regained the lost ground and returned above $76,600. Over the next 24 hours, the price increase turned positive, roughly between +0.5% and +0.9%, suggesting that the rate hike itself did not exceed what the market had priced in. The real surprise was instead that “there was no dot plot.”

【Resolution Result】
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 FOMC meeting passed a 25-basis-point rate hike (one increment) by a vote of 12 to 0. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%—the first rate hike since July 2023. The post-meeting statement was only 130 words long, noticeably more concise than past practice. Chairman Warsh (Kevin Warsh) did not submit his own rate-path prediction (dot) this time. The press conference was also unusually brief; the entire meeting plus Q&A lasted only about half an hour, and the time Warsh actually spent answering questions was just about 22 minutes.
【The dot plot is more important than the rate hike itself】

[Resolution outcome: Unanimous vote to raise by one increment]
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced the results of the September FOMC meeting on September 16. The committee approved a one-increment rate hike (25 basis points) by a vote of 12 to 0 without dissent. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first hike since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh, in the post-meeting press conference, emphasized that the Fed’s role is to act before price pressures spread, using a “more immediate” pace to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
[Dot plot: 16 officials bet on another hike this year]
The more crucial signal than the rate hike itself is in the dot plot: of 18 participating officials, 16 expect that at least one more rate hike will occur this year, and four even anticipate two more hikes. This suggests the December meeting has already been viewed by the market as the next important hurdle. Continuing the approach from the previous round, I did not submit my own forecast for the interest-rate path.

【Event itself】
$ZEC Governance voting results released: nearly 2.4 million tokens participated in the vote. 99.9% voted in favor of shortening the block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 98.9% agreed to keep the original Bitcoin-style halving schedule. This proposal, ZIP 218, had voting running from August 25 to September 14. It was jointly coordinated by five organizations, including the Zcash Foundation and Shielded Labs. The original requirement was that at least 1 million tokens be involved for the vote to be considered representative; in the end, actual participation far exceeded that threshold. ZIP 218 is designed to divide the amount of tokens issued per block by 3, so that while blocks become faster, the overall issuance rate remains unchanged—effectively formally confirming the technical roadmap for the NU7 upgrade.

【Event itself】
The OECD Global Forum on Tax Transparency has recently (in mid-September) announced that Argentina has formally committed to joining the (Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework) (CARF). At the latest, it will begin the automatic exchange of cryptocurrency transaction information with other participating jurisdictions’ tax authorities in September 2029. This marks the formal conversion of Argentina’s previously signed non-binding “intent declaration” into a commitment with a specific timeline.
【Who and what is covered by CARF requirements】
The CARF has identified the “Relevant Crypto-Asset Service Providers” (RCASP)—centralized exchanges, brokers, certain custodial wallet providers, and DeFi/NFT platforms with identifiable operators—as being required to collect, verify, and report customers’ cryptocurrency-to-fiat exchange, cryptocurrency swap, and transfer transaction data to the local tax authorities. These data are then automatically exchanged with other participating tax authorities in other jurisdictions. Argentina, along with Azerbaijan, Mexico, and the United States, is part of the later batch that will only launch the first cross-border exchange in 2029, which is one to two years later than the earlier 2027 and 2028 batches.

[FOMC countdown, decision imminent]
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day September meeting enters its final hours today. The interest-rate decision is scheduled to be released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, after which Chair Warsh (Kevin Warsh) will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. If this time the Fed really raises rates by one quarter point (25 basis points), the target range for the federal funds rate would be increased from 3.50%~3.75% to 3.75%~4.00%—the first rate hike since July 2023. This is also the most discussed topic on Binance Square over these two days, with far more views than any other subject.
[CME vs. prediction markets: the estimated odds differ by nearly a factor of two]

【Voting Results】
On September 15 at 2:15 p.m. (Eastern Time), the U.S. Senate voted on a cloture motion regarding the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633). This is a procedural hurdle that determines whether the bill can move on to formal debate, with a threshold of 60 votes. The vote did not cross the threshold, with more than 40 senators voting against it. Several Democratic senators who were originally seen by the market as possibly being persuaded to switch to support—including Gillibrand, Warner, Booker, Warnock, Gallego, Alsobrooks, Cortez Masto—ultimately also voted against. The Republican bill sponsor, Lummis, as well as Boozman and Scott, offered an alternative version that had already incorporated the 126 amendments requested by Democrats, but it still failed to secure enough votes. Senator Warren (Elizabeth Warren) also publicly called on her colleagues to vote against.

[Big reshuffle of institutional advisor portfolios]
On September 14 (Monday), Grayscale will roll out a new advisor-only model portfolio combination called “Digital Assets Next Gen,” enabling wealth management advisors to directly replicate it into client accounts. The approach is that advisors use the weighting ratios published for this combination, and then use Grayscale’s own suite of ETF portfolio combinations to match the corresponding allocations. After the weights were released, the first thing the market noticed was not whose allocation was the highest, but that this portfolio has absolutely no Bitcoin position: $ETH at 42.34% ranks first, $XRP at 26.11% ranks second, $SOL at 21.09% ranks third. The three together add up to nearly 90%, and BTC is entirely absent from the holdings list announced this time.

【The event itself】
The latest CME FedWatch pricing for the September 16 FOMC meeting shows the market assigns a probability of 89% to the Fed raising rates by one notch (25 basis points). That figure climbed rapidly from 66% at the end of August and from 35% before Chairman Jackson Hole’s speech. The spark for this surge came from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, along with the recently released PCE inflation report: up 3.7% year over year, with an annualized rate of 4.1% over six months—well above the 2% target—prompting the market to reassess how urgent it is for the Fed to fight inflation.
【Hawk–dove disagreement still persists】
Not all officials are on the same side. Warsh’s hawkish stance is clear, but Fed governor Chris Waller and New York Fed president John Williams broke ranks in the middle, arguing that the decision to raise rates is “far from settled,” highlighting that this time the FOMC’s outcome was not a unanimous decision, but a near call in a close contest. Such a split means the wording in the post-meeting statement (whether it is a one-off tightening or the start of consecutive rate hikes with follow-through) matters more to subsequent market pricing than the rate-hike decision itself.

【The event itself】
Earlier in September, the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its second hike this year (it raised once in June already); the Bank of Japan’s meeting on 9/17–18 is also widely expected to hike by 25 basis points to 1.25%. The two-day FOMC meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve begins today (9/15), and it will decide to release the outcome at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on 9/16. CME FedWatch currently prices the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at around 79.3%. With the three central banks tightening policy in almost the same week, market analysts describe the combination as the first such synchronized move since 2006.
【What this comparison to 2006 is about】
The last time the three major central banks synchronized tightening was in 2006. Back then, the first to come under pressure was the carry trade positions built on leverage funded through borrowing—once the cost of funding rose, the highly leveraged positions propped up by low-cost financing were forced to unwind first. The trigger this time is similar: the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz combined with the closure of the Saudi Petroline pipeline after an attack pushed Brent crude above $100 (briefly breaking $108 on 9/14). Rising imported inflation pressure then flipped the rate-cut path that the market had been pricing into a path of rate hikes.

[Event itself]
Around 11:30 UTC on September 11, 2024, on the Bitcoin network, at block height 966,500, a single-block blockchain reorganization (reorg) occurred: two major mining pools, AntPool and SpiderPool, almost simultaneously each mined a valid block, creating a brief fork. Subsequently, the chain from AntPool accumulated more confirmations and became the main chain, while the blocks from SpiderPool were isolated (orphaned). Transactions inside the orphaned blocks were returned to the mempool to be included in the next batch. Research firm Galaxy Research tracked that this was the third occurrence of the same type of event within the past four weeks—the previous two took place on August 16 (block 962,722) and August 24 (block 963,853).

【Message itself】
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an article of about 3,800 Chinese characters on his personal website on Saturday (9/12), urging the entire AI industry to slow the pace of advancing frontier model capabilities. He said that over the past few months, he has become convinced that merely allocating resources to risk prevention is not enough; it is also necessary to slow down the development of capabilities so that the progress of risk prevention can truly keep up. He warned that runaway AI agents could potentially have a large-scale impact on network infrastructure within as little as six months. Within a few hours after the article was published, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly expressed agreement and also confirmed that the company will not move forward with its listing plans this year, citing safety considerations for the same reason. Elon Musk, who is also an executive in an AI company, voiced support for Amodei’s judgment on social media.