【Decision Result】

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike at its September 16 FOMC meeting, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate increase since July 2023. The market had already priced in the outcome quite thoroughly beforehand—CME interest-rate futures implied probabilities once reached nearly 90%. Therefore, at the time the decision was announced, the reaction was limited: prices remained in the range of about $75,000 to $75,800, and then briefly fell below $76,000. The interest rate dot plot released simultaneously showed disagreement among committee members: 12 officials expected the year-end rate median to land at 4.125%, 4 believed it would reach 4.375%, and only 2 expected it to stay at 3.875%. Whether there will be another rate hike in December is not yet settled.

【Bounce back within two days】

By September 18, Bitcoin’s intraday rally pushed it briefly to $81,000, triggering a forced liquidation of short positions totaling as much as $238 million in a single day, with $ETH rising in tandem. Among this rebound, the strongest gain was in the Layer-2 narrative. Starknet and $ARB both surged by over 17%. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell from near its 5% peak to below 5%. This yield trend has long served as an indicator of pressure from cryptocurrency funding costs. This drop coincided with the timing of the synchronized rebound in risk assets.

【Two regulatory developments at the same time】

On September 17, the CFTC’s Market Participants Division issued a no-action letter, allowing providers of “passive software” services that do not hold customer assets in custody and do not make trading decision on behalf of clients to be exempt from the requirement to register as introducing brokers—effectively expanding an arrangement that earlier this year applied only to the Kalshi and Phantom pairing into a more general framework, lowering the compliance bar for prediction-market and crypto trading infrastructure developers. In the same day, the FDIC board approved a proposal for state-bank reciprocity, enabling state-chartered banks to expand into other states for digital-asset-related business using their own state regulatory framework, without needing to obtain additional approvals from each local state one by one. Both developments reflect regulators advancing via administrative rulemaking at the agency level, following a different path from the CLARITY Act at the congressional level, which has been stalled in recent days because it cannot clear the 60-vote threshold.

【How the market is interpreting this mix】

This rebound happened after two pieces of news that were originally viewed as negative: the rate hike landing and the CLARITY Act stalling. Most analyses focus on the idea that “everything that needed to be digested has already been digested.” The size and timing of the rate hike were both within expectations. While the bill’s impasse temporarily halted the congressional path toward clearer regulation, the CFTC and FDIC each unveiled concrete easing moves in the same week—giving the market reason to shift attention away from legislative progress and back to the ongoing trajectory regulators are already pursuing.

【Key points to watch next】

On September 20, two token unlocks are worth noting: ZRO’s unlock amount is equivalent to 7.28% of the circulating supply (about $26.45 million), and BR’s unlock amount is equivalent to 18.68% (about $10.4 million). Together, both represent a not-insignificant share of the circulating supply, making them near-term variables that could influence the prices of individual tokens over the next few days. For the medium to long term, attention should return to the underlying divergence in the interest-rate dot plot itself—there is currently no consensus on whether there will be another rate hike in December. Over the coming weeks, inflation and employment data will be the basis for repricing.