【Decision Result】

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike at its September 16 FOMC meeting. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised to 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate increase since July 2023. Markets had already priced this outcome in very thoroughly beforehand—CME interest-rate futures had at one point implied an almost 90% probability. Therefore, when the decision was released, the $BTC reaction was limited; the price remained in the range of about 75,000 to 75,800 USD, and then briefly dipped below 76,000 USD. The interest-rate dot plot released alongside the decision showed disagreement among the committee members: 12 officials expected the year-end median rate to be 4.125%, 4 believed it would reach 4.375%, and only 2 expected it to stay at 3.875%. There is currently no consensus on whether there will be another rate hike in December.

[Rebound within two days]

By September 18, during the intraday session, it briefly surged to 81,000; short positions totaling as much as $238 million in a single day were forced to close—moving up in tandem. This rebound saw the strongest gains in the Layer-2 narrative: both Starknet and [t-29/] jumped by more than 17%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury retreated from near its peak of 5% to below 5%. This yield trend has long been an indicator of pressure on crypto capital costs. This pullback matched the timing of the rebound in risk assets.

[Two regulatory developments at the same time]

On September 17, the CFTC’s Market Participants Division issued a no-action letter, allowing providers of “passive software” services that do not hold users’ assets in custody and do not make trading decision for clients to be exempt from the requirement to register as introducing brokers. In effect, it expanded an earlier case arrangement granted only to the combination of Kalshi and Phantom earlier this year into a broader, generally applicable framework—lowering the compliance threshold for prediction market and crypto trading infrastructure developers. On the same day, the FDIC board approved a proposal for state-bank reciprocity, enabling state-chartered banks to expand digital-asset-related business into other states using their own state regulatory framework, without needing to obtain additional approvals from each state individually. These two developments both advance through rulemaking at the administrative level by regulators, unlike the CLARITY Act at the congressional level, which has recently stalled for the past few days because it can’t clear the 60-vote threshold via a different path.

[How the market is interpreting this combination]

This rebound occurred after two pieces of news that were originally viewed as bearish—the Federal Reserve rate hikes being implemented and the CLARITY Act running into setbacks. Most analysts are focusing on the idea that “everything that needed to be digested has already been digested.” The size and timing of the rate hikes were within expectations. Although the bill stalling has temporarily paused the legislative path toward clearer regulation, the CFTC and FDIC each unveiled concrete de-risking steps within the same week. That gives the market reason to shift its focus away from legislative progress and back toward the existing track of continued regulatory follow-through.

[Key points to watch next]

On September 20, two token unlocks are worth noting: ZRO’s unlock amount is equivalent to 7.28% of the circulating supply (about $26.45 million), and BR’s unlock amount is equivalent to 18.68% of the circulating supply (about $10.4 million). In both cases, the share of circulating supply is significant—these are near-term variables that could affect the price of the individual tokens over the next few days. For the medium to long term, the focus should return to the disagreements inherent in the interest-rate dot plot itself: as of now, there is no consensus on whether the market will see another rate hike in December. In the coming weeks, inflation and employment data will be the basis for repricing.