【Breakthrough moment】

On September 18, Bitcoin surged in the course of the day, jumping from around $76,400 to the vicinity of $81,000 in one go, marking the first time since September 7 it has regained the $80,000 level. The direct trigger for this sharp rally was a wave of short liquidations—forced covering within about an hour. The liquidation amounts cited in multiple reports ranged from $183 million to $192 million (different sources use different calculation methods, and some reports mention higher or lower figures). The liquidation size completed within a single hour was nearly the same as the volume that had previously taken an entire trading day of prior fluctuations to accumulate. $BTC It once touched the neighborhood of $81,000, then later consolidated while holding above $80,000.

【Three events previously seen as bearish stacked together】

This rebound happened in the same week after three events that the market originally interpreted as leaning bearish: the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate earlier this week as it failed to clear the 60-vote threshold; the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75%~4.00%; and the Bank of Japan’s two-day meeting on September 17–18 also raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. The vote result was 7 in favor and 2 against. After the decision, the Japanese yen initially weakened by about 0.8% to around 157. The market had worried that narrowing interest-rate differentials would hit carry-trade positions funded in JPY, but this time the reaction was calm. Multiple media reports interpret it as: even after the hike, Japanese rates are still far below those in the U.S., so the room for interest-rate differential in carry trades remains.$ETH 、$SOL rose in sync—Solana briefly topped $37, and XRP and dogecoin also posted gains of more than 6% in the same time window. What’s showing is a broad rebound in risk appetite, not a single asset rallying on its own.

【How the market views this breakout】

In a market weekly report published on September 18, CoinShares—a digital asset management firm—described Bitcoin’s outlook into the end of the year as being in a “difficult situation.” Their view is that unless inflation data clearly improves, or expectations for Fed monetary policy shift in a meaningful way, it won’t be easy for Bitcoin to truly hold above $80,000. Another pressure source highlighted in the report is that if the Iran situation remains unresolved, oil prices’ inflation pressure will leave the Fed with limited room to ease. Also, the CLARITY Act stalling delays the timeline for regulatory clarity. This is a perspective from a research report, not a guarantee of price predictions, but it does reflect that there are voices in the market suggesting the foundation of this rebound is not yet that solid.

【The next checkpoints to watch】

Multiple reports mark the $82,300 area as the next technical checkpoint—if price can later hold above this level, it will be seen as a signal that the recent consolidation pattern has ended. Conversely, if the rebound lacks momentum, $80,000 itself could again turn into overhead resistance rather than support. Whether this level can be defended, along with the inflation-data and Fed-policy signals CoinShares pointed to, are two concrete indicators to watch over the next few days to see if this rebound can continue.

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