most people look at $BTC back above 80k and think the hard part is over. it's not
the actual test is still ahead. the 2-year moving average sits near 88,761 and that's the number that decides if this move means anything
a bounce is easy. markets bounce all the time. what's hard is holding above a level like that with real strength behind it, not just relief buying after a rough stretch
so the next few weeks matter more than this green candle does. if price gets near 88,761 and gets rejected again, this was just noise. if it pushes through and stays there, that's a different story completely
watching that reaction closely. that's the actual signal, not the bounce everyone's celebrating right now
Leopold is back at it. The hedge fund Situational Awareness, which blew up in July, is degenerate gambling big again
Yesterday, September 17, someone (Wall Street is pointing fingers at the usual suspect) paid $100M in premium on call options expiring October 2: Micron 1M shares at strike $1000, premium $44M. Sandisk 420k shares at strike $1600, premium $41M. Intel 2M shares at strike $115, premium $7.3M. MRVL 350k shares at strike $250, premium $3.85M.
So basically $100M built a $2B long.
Because these options expire soon, in 15 days, the breakeven bar is high. He only profits if by the evening of October 2 Micron is at $1044 or above, Sandisk at $1697, Intel at $118.65, MRVL at $261.
Below those prices the premium goes straight into the stands, to Ken Griffin at Citadel.
Micron happens to report earnings in late September, and the guy behind this trade thinks that's what pumps the whole sector.
People on Twitter are asking, if the fund lost $35B in July, how do you explain the urge to torch another $100M on options in 15 days if it fails again?
the TON co-founder and the network's lead core developer just announced the project's next technical goal. in plain terms: even if the main blockchain (the masterchain) fully halts, individual shardchains (network segments) should keep running as normal.
this is specifically about the chains that handle regular user transactions, transfers, and smart contract execution. TON is aiming for uninterrupted transactions 24/7.
$STON traders, this one's for you. resilience like this is exactly what keeps DeFi alive when things get rough.
anthropic hitting $863b on private markets while openai sits at $846b
one of those moments people will look back on
yeah the volume is tiny and you can't read too much into it, but the fact that traders are even willing to price it higher tells you something about where the smart money thinks this is going