TVBee

In 2013, 2017, and 2021, every bull market occurred when the annual growth rate of US M2 was declining.

 

At present, the annual growth rate of US M2 is still in an upward stage.

 

➤M2 is the real liquidity indicator

 

Interest rates, QT or QE are just the policy starting points of liquidity.

 

M2 reflects both monetary policy and social economy, and M2 is the real liquidity indicator.

 

In 2017, interest rates were raised, but M2 was growing. In addition to the time lag of monetary policy, the prosperity of the real economy has made the base currency circulate faster in the economy, which will also promote the growth of M2.

 

➤M2 entered the end only after it went from acceleration to deceleration

 

The increase in the annual growth rate of M2 means the accelerated growth of liquidity.

 

The decline in the annual growth rate of M2 means the decelerated growth of liquidity.

 

When the growth of M2 goes from acceleration to deceleration, it is the end of growth.

For the sake of rigor, I have to say that although the US M2 is not equal to global liquidity, it is representative and even dominant.

 

That is why I firmly say that the bull market has not come. In fact, we may still be at the stage before 312.

【Dog Farm Pubic Hair Theory】Why is BTC said to be like a wash sale?

┈┈➤刻舟：Almost identical to April~June 2021

Looking at BTC's monthly chart, this October to December is just too much like April to June 2021.

In contrast, it looks nothing like November 2021 to January 2022.

┈┈➤The logic behind it: The difference between unloading and wash sales

The main force (the market maker) should ideally unload gradually, as incremental unloading allows retail investors to catch the falling knife.

However, rushing to unload creates a more ideal panic effect, especially when crashing down to the bottom, as retail investors are reluctant to buy and may even sell.

2021 is the best example, with the two patterns of April~June 2021 and November 2021~January 2022 being completely different.

┈┈➤Game against market expectations: Four-year cycle and interest rate cut cycle

╰┈✦Combining with the tail end of the four-year cycle makes the crash more effective

Especially when coinciding with the end of the bull market in the four-year cycle, the effect is even better.

You should know that the four-year cycle is almost common knowledge. Everyone has bought various coins and is waiting for a pump; if the market maker pumps now, wouldn't he become the one catching the falling knife??? He's not stupid!

So at this time, crashing the market makes most people think the bull is over, even causing some to cut losses and exit. Then, it pumps again, creating FOMO among a portion of people. This should be the normal thinking of the market maker, right?

╰┈✦Welcoming the liquidity easing cycle

Especially knowing that the Federal Reserve will officially enter the easing cycle in 2026 (intermittent rate cuts also count as an easing cycle, as quantitative tightening has completely stopped, and with rates lowered further, liquidity will be even more loose), this does not conform to a bear market environment.

So a quick crash serves two purposes: to induce panic selling among retail investors for the main force to accumulate, and to allow the bear market to finish quickly in order to welcome a new round of easing.

┈┈➤Final Words

Of course, don't be too optimistic about rate cuts. It is highly likely that there won't be continuous rate cuts in 2026, but rather intermittent ones, so even if it doesn't conform to a bear market environment, it seems it also doesn't fit a bull market environment.
Lastly, I want to mention that Bee Brother's analysis isn't necessarily correct. Bee Brother's characteristic is strong logic, but the downside is that he often doesn't consider issues comprehensively and tends to overlook some factors. This is just how he thinks and writes, and everyone is welcome to discuss together.

The big pancake is an era where everyone is on guard (this term is purely for rhyme),

More on guard than the big pancake is the counterfeit,

More on guard than the counterfeit is the chives!

It's not a big deal, there's no systemic risk.

No, the S&P didn't drop, the Nasdaq didn't drop, only Nvidia is dropping.

Bing Ge, you are American stock-oriented, not Nvidia-oriented……
🤣

Panic emotions may be fading

After a month, the flow of funds in the exchange has changed.

A month ago, Binance and Okex saw a net inflow of short-term funds.

As of today, after January, Binance and Okex are experiencing a net outflow of short-term (within 24 hours, within 7 days) funds.

In contrast, Gate is seeing a net inflow of funds.

This may be because the market's panic emotions regarding the bear market are fading.

Is the Federal Reserve's $13.5 billion liquidity release being overinterpreted?

On December 1st, U.S. time, the Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into the banking system through overnight repurchase operations (Repo), which is considered a positive.

┈┈➤Shallow Interpretation: Liquidity injection is positive

Because the Federal Reserve has provided funds to the banking system, and $13.5 billion is a massive amount, it is seen as positive.

This is the shallowest interpretation.

┈┈➤Standard Interpretation: Overnight repo is a temporary injection

In fact, overnight repos, as the name suggests, need to be bought back overnight. In contrast, there is the overnight reverse repo.

╰┈✦Overnight Reverse Repo

Overnight reverse repo, RRP (Reverse Repurchase Agreement). On the surface, financial institutions first purchase bonds from the Federal Reserve and then sell them back to the Federal Reserve overnight.

Essentially, it is financial institutions lending money to the Federal Reserve, obtaining bonds as collateral, and also earning some interest income.

╰┈✦Overnight Repo

Overnight repo, Repo (Repurchase Agreement), on the surface, is when financial institutions sell bonds to the Federal Reserve. The next day, they buy back the bonds and return the funds to the Federal Reserve.

Essentially, it is financial institutions using bonds as collateral to obtain temporary funds to meet settlement needs, etc.

Therefore, this short-term, temporary influx of funds must be returned to the Federal Reserve overnight. Thus, even if the scale is large, it does not directly benefit the economy and the market.

Therefore, believing this is a liquidity injection that is beneficial for the stock market or even cryptocurrency may be an overinterpretation.

┈┈➤In-depth Interpretation: The Federal Reserve is about to begin a loosening cycle

Overnight repos often occur in a high-interest-rate environment when the banking system lacks funds.

Thus, it can be speculated that the Federal Reserve may soon begin a loosening cycle, including interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion.

The massive $13.5 billion overnight repo indicates that the banking system's funds are very tight.

Currently, the expected rates calculated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are:

Rate cuts in December 2025,
Rate cuts in April 2026,
Rate cuts in September 2026.
No cuts at other times.

The banking system's near $13.5 billion funding settlement gap may suggest that the actual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will be more frequent than this expectation, or even faster.

The conclusion is that the Federal Reserve's $13.5 billion liquidity release does not have a direct benefit but has indirect implications.

deBridge acts swiftly, integrating #monad at the first opportunity.

Since November 24, Monad has flowed out nearly $6 million through deBridge, with inflows exceeding $3 million. The net outflow is $2.77 million (3,156,353-5,930,095).

In less than 5 days, deBridge has earned $13,949 in the Monad ecosystem.

Additionally, it has been noted that the data analysis interface of deBridge has been updated.

This may be due to the vast number of ecosystems supported by deBridge, making it inconvenient for users to view; by default, it only displays the six major ecosystems: Ethereum, Tron, BSC, @arbitrum Solana, and Base.

For other ecosystems, users need to manually click to show them in the dropdown list.

It can only be said that the number of ecosystems integrated by deBridge is increasing. In the entire DeFi infrastructure, deBridge is becoming increasingly indispensable.

If I am not mistaken, this round of the bear market will not see major exchanges experiencing runs or closures.

This is thanks to Binance's launch of on-chain proof of reserves at the end of 2022.

Binance was the first exchange to introduce on-chain proof of reserves, where users' funds are stored within Binance and clearly visible across its various wallets. This includes both mainstream cryptocurrencies and smaller tokens.

Subsequently, various exchanges followed suit.

On this basis, the space for exchanges to misappropriate user funds has diminished. Therefore, in a bear market or unexpected situations, it is difficult for users to experience a run when withdrawing funds.

After Bybit was hacked in the first half of the year, users rushed to withdraw their funds, but Bybit managed to pull through, which is an example.

Binance has played a crucial role in stabilizing the Web3 industry.

Coincidentally, after Binance donated 10,000,000 HKD to the Hong Kong fire disaster, other exchanges and institutions followed suit. Most of the donations were around 10,000,000 HKD.

Once again, Binance, leveraging its industry influence, is leading the crypto industry to release energy and warmth!

In November, Binance has another major event - the 2025 Asia Regulatory Awards

┈┈➤ Major events at Binance in November

In terms of business, Binance institutional clients will include BlackRock BUIDL as collateral.

In terms of products, Binance Wallet has launched US stock token trading.

In terms of social responsibility, Binance donated 10 million Hong Kong dollars to the Hong Kong fire disaster.

In terms of operations, Binance received the highest score of 93.4 (AA level) in the 'Exchange Benchmark Report' published by CoinDesk.

However, CoinDesk can only represent the high evaluation of Binance by the Web3 industry.

The '2025 Regulation Asia Awards' reflects that Binance has been recognized by the traditional authoritative financial community.

┈┈➤ Regulation Asia

Regulation Asia, 'Asian Regulation', was established in 2013, headquartered in Singapore and Hong Kong.

Regulation Asia is one of the most influential financial professional media in the Asia-Pacific financial market, focusing on financial regulatory policies and related market compliance events in the Asia-Pacific region.

Including but not limited to banking, payments, capital markets, asset management, crypto assets, anti-money laundering, etc.

The audience of Regulation Asia includes senior executives of financial institutions, relevant officials from government agencies, legal personnel, etc.

According to the Regulation Asia official website, Regulation Asia has over 30,000 professional subscription users in the Asia-Pacific region, covering more than 60 countries and impacting over 1,000 financial-related institutions.

┈┈➤ Regulation Asia Awards

The Asia Regulatory Awards recognize institutions and individuals that excel in financial regulation, compliance, risk management, sustainable finance, and other fields.

In 2025, well-known institutions that won awards alongside Binance include banks such as JPMorgan, Citibank, and Standard Chartered, as well as accounting firms like EY and Deloitte, and financial institutions like the American Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation and S&P Global.

Binance won the Regulation Asia Awards for Best Crypto Asset Trading Platform of the Year, and its core significance is not to recognize Binance's global influence or praise its market share.

The award is a high recognition of Binance in compliance, security, risk management, and other aspects.

At Binance, no detail is too small; Binance's product and business upgrades have an impact on the crypto industry. Binance receiving recognition from traditional financial media, especially regulatory financial media, is of significant importance for the compliance and healthy development of the crypto industry, enhancing influence and integrating into traditional finance.

I can't stop laughing, this is the market

Brother Bee wrote 'There Might Be Some Good News' with 150,000 reads
Wrote 'Good News Confirmed' with 60,000 reads
Wrote 'Further Good News' with 45,000 reads

Wrote 'There Might Be a Possible Thunder' with 22,000 reads (this post is also pinned)

😂😂😂😂

Further good news! BTC outflow from Coinbase is accelerating!

Yesterday, BlackRock withdrew over 4,000 BTC and over 40,000 ETH to Coinbase Prime.

Some friends questioned whether the transfer to Coinbase Prime might indicate a desire to sell, so Brother Bee explained this matter.

First of all, whether it's ETF market makers or BlackRock, they don’t necessarily have to buy and sell BTC and ETH on exchanges. There is indeed the possibility of over-the-counter trading.

However, since the BTC price has been falling, the ETF market must be the same. Therefore, the ETF market is in a situation of oversupply, and at this time, market makers need to redeem ETF shares to keep the ETF price in line with the decline in the spot price.

After redeeming ETF shares, the portion of BTC that was previously custodied in Coinbase Prime for issuing the ETF can be retrieved.

Market makers can completely sell directly, and there is no need to withdraw BTC from elsewhere to Coinbase Prime to sell it.

Therefore, whether it's ETF market makers or BlackRock, depositing BTC and ETH into Coinbase Prime is likely a purchase aimed at creating new ETF shares in the future to meet the buying demand of the ETF market.

In fact, yesterday the net inflow into BTC ETFs was $240 million. The net inflow into ETH ETFs was $55.71 million.

This proves that there is a bottom-fishing demand in the ETF market. Although it may not be a major bottom, it could be a local bottom.

Yesterday, Coinbase experienced an outflow of 6,300 BTC in 24 hours.

Today, Coinbase's net outflow of BTC in 24 hours is 18,606 BTC. The total net outflow of BTC from 20 major exchanges in 24 hours is 7,444 BTC.

Coinbase's net outflow of ETH in 24 hours is 215,000 ETH. The total net outflow of ETH from 20 major exchanges in 24 hours is 253,000 ETH.

Brother Bee has a theory about pubic hair

Trump wants to cut interest rates to lower the financing costs of U.S. debt.

So he and his team have the motivation to bring down the U.S. stock market, making Wall Street and investors more eager for rate cuts.

Including the previous October 10th, when Trump shouted for a 100% rate hike, there may have been such motivation behind it.

Some people always say he does this to short the market and harvest retail investors, which underestimates Trump. Because whether he creates positive or negative news, he can make money either way.

Therefore, Trump's motivation might be to use this opportunity to suppress the U.S. stock market, indirectly pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut rates. As for making money from shorting, that can only be considered a side benefit.

There is a piece of data that might contain some good news.

In the last 24 hours, Coinbase has seen a significant outflow of BTC, close to 6300 coins.

The BTC flowing into the exchange might be intended for sale.

The outflow could indicate that the BTC has been purchased for storage on the blockchain. It might also involve ETF market makers buying to create new shares for future price increases.

In the last 24 hours, for all major exchanges surveyed, the overall trend has been net outflow for the last 24 hours, the last week, and the last month.

That wasn't the case yesterday morning. Yesterday morning, both the last 24 hours and the last week showed a net inflow of BTC to the exchanges.

Image 1 is from today, and Image 2 is a screenshot taken yesterday morning.

The bad news is——the non-farm data itself is good

Finally, the twists and turns of November 20 have come to an end.

◆ First, the FOMC minutes showed that the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates in December.
◆ Then NVIDIA performed better than expected.
◆ Finally, the non-farm data further reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in December.

The non-farm employment figure was more than 100% higher than expected and much better than last month. This indicates that the economy is not that bad; based solely on this data, the Federal Reserve does not have pressure to cut rates.

Although the unemployment rate met expectations, it still rose by 0.1 percentage points from last month.

Looking at the unemployment rate from July to September, there has been an upward trend in the United States.

Moreover, looking at state data, some states have already reached the critical value of the Sam Rule and have already entered a recession.

Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant had also called for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, stating at the time that certain states were already in recession.

Therefore, it is highly likely that there will be no rate cut in December, but a cut is expected in January.

The current market expectation is:

The probability of no rate cut in January is only 30.6%.
The probability of no rate cut in December and a rate cut in January is 50.2%.
The probability of rate cuts in both December and January is 19.1%.

It is important to note that the market is trading on rate cut expectations, and the decline in November is pricing in no rate cut in December.

So, is there a possibility that the expectation of a rate cut in January will be priced in next month?

The large exchanges in the United States mainly have a net outflow of BTC. Other large exchanges mainly have a net inflow.

Among them, Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini are some of the sources for ETF market makers (AP) to buy BTC.

The net outflow of BTC from Coinbase and Gemini may indicate that AP is purchasing BTC and then withdrawing it to create new ETF shares in the future.

The net inflow of BTC from other exchanges may suggest that on-chain holders plan to sell BTC.

Overall, these 20 exchanges have experienced a net outflow of BTC over the past 30 days, but in the last week and the last 24 hours, the exchanges have seen a net inflow of BTC.