┈┈➤Joy

╰┈⯈The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points

Not cutting rates is definitely bearish; if rates are cut by 50 basis points, there may be recession expectations.

However, cutting rates by 25 basis points, in line with expectations, is bullish.

╰┈⯈High probability of 3 rate cuts in 2025

On interest rates at the end of 2025

Among 19 Federal Reserve officials:

◆9 predict a range of 3.5~3.75, meaning 25×3 rate cuts in 2025.
◆6 predict a range of 4.0~4.25, meaning 1 rate cut in 2025.
◆Another 2 predict a range of 3.75~4.0, meaning 25×2 rate cuts in 2025.
◆1 predicts a lower rate of 2.5~3.0.
◆1 predicts a rate hike.

There is a high probability of supporting 3 rate cuts in 2025.

Rate cuts themselves release liquidity, and three consecutive rate cuts are equivalent to accelerating liquidity release for four consecutive months. (Generally, the Federal Reserve FOMC meetings are held once every six weeks, so three rate cuts are roughly equivalent to about four months).


┈┈➤Worry

╰┈⯈2026 will continue to watch for further rate cuts.

The worry is about 2026.

Based on three rate cuts in 2025, considering an end-of-year interest rate of 3.5~3.75, we can see the dot plot gives a rate forecast for 2026:

◆6 people predict the interest rate will remain unchanged in 2026.
◆4 people predict a rate cut of 25×2 times in 2026.
◆3 people predict a rate cut of 25×3 times in 2026.
◆2 people predict a rate cut of 25×4 times in 2026.
◆2 people predict one rate cut in 2026.
◆Additionally, 2 people predict the interest rate will be 3.75~4.0.

In other words, it is not certain that there will be continuous rate cuts in 2026.

Because we have experienced continuous rate cuts in the 2020 pandemic environment, we mistakenly thought that once the Federal Reserve started cutting rates, it would definitely continue to do so.


In fact, after the 2018 subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the Federal Reserve initiated QE while significantly cutting rates, but there were also occasional rate hikes during the cuts.

Moreover, the current environment we are in does not yet exhibit an explosive crisis like that in 2008.

Therefore, it is likely that 2026 will not have continuous rate cuts, and we should further observe economic development and CPI data performance.

╰┈⯈Mild tapering is still ongoing.

Powell stated, "We are close to the moment of stopping tapering, but we have not yet reached it," and "The reserves in the financial system are still abundant; the current reduction is small and will not have a widespread impact on the economy."

┈┈➤In conclusion

Overall, it is still more positive than negative.

The dot plot predictions for 2026 three months from now are still not credible enough. Moreover, Powell might step down in May 2026.

╰┈⯈There is a high probability of a bull market in October and November.

Overall, the macro environment is improving. If there are no black swans in October and November, it is likely to be a bull market.

Pay attention to the coins launched by Binance Alpha in the coming days; it looks like there will be a total of 6. This shows how strong the market expectations are for rate cuts as a turning point.


╰┈⯈Need to pay attention in December.

December needs attention. On one hand, a new dot plot will be released in December, affecting the rate cut trend for Q1 2026. On the other hand, the four-year cycle consensus should not be underestimated; on-chain data may show a market peak.

╰┈⯈Looking to Q1 of 2026 for altcoin season, opportunities may arise in Q2.

Here, Brother Bee's view on the altcoin season in 2026 has changed. It is not that he believes there will be no altcoin season in 2026, but we should mainly focus on the macro policies of 2026.

Because Q1 or even Q2 of 2026 may not continue to cut rates, Brother Bee's perspective on the altcoin season in 2026 has shifted from believing "there will definitely be an altcoin season" to "watching."

But Q2 may have opportunities, as the current term of the Federal Reserve chair ends in May.

Of course, there will be a stage of presidential nominations and Senate confirmations before this.

This stage may begin at the end of 2025; it is uncertain when the hype around this hot topic will start.

The probability of Powell stepping down in May is quite high. Therefore, it is speculated that Q2 may enter a peak of this hype.

Friends may question the market in the first half of next year. Brother Bee has mentioned this before, and I will reiterate:

◆In May-June 2018, the launch of EOS and TRON on their mainnets triggered a wave of public chain enthusiasm.

◆In March-April 2022, Stepn exploded, leading to a wave of 'x to earn' enthusiasm.

So do not underestimate the first half of 2026.

Personal operation plan (not investment advice) is generally to increase positions in September (already done, will continue to add), reduce positions and switch at the end of November. Mainly holding BTC, ETH, and BNB. Small coins will be cleared. A portion of other mainstream coins will be reduced, and then will focus on tracks like RWA and AI that align with traditional financial investment perspectives. Then continue to pay attention to subsequent developments.