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这周和下周以及最后一周波动都较大。短线上试错成本有所提高，需要下调杠杆、仓位。成本没有太大优势的短线单，不轮多空该损就损，损了才能接到更合适的位置。比如btc这周内只要94600不突破，93850-94050附近的空那就是空在最高点。但如果94600突破，往上扎就能到96300-97850这个震荡带。所以94600是必须要设损的。

这周抓到最高点的空单，那么本月后两周，日本加息落地后，这个空单的利润就会非常大，比11.11-11.21 跌到80600还会让你惊讶。

BTC pullback focus on whether the 86250-87500 range can find support. If a sharp rebound is completed before Monday night, there is still room for a rebound at the 4-hour level. If this range breaks, continue to pay attention to support at 84200/82845!
ETH pullback focus on 2835-2749, if it breaks, pay attention to 2415/2225!
At this moment, the short to medium indicators at the 1h/2h/4h levels are gradually raising their lows, marking the best rebound opportunity in the past month and a half. Therefore, those with small positions can maintain patience and wait for the arrival of the main upward wave without breaking new lows!
Time point: Next week, watch the K-line trend; if it can stabilize after a pullback, then maintain this mindset;
In terms of operation: the deeper the squat, the more one can enter the first position, with expectations of holding for three to five days to about ten days. Stop loss if it breaks!
If the market accelerates its decline with increased volume after a break, then the short to medium trend can also be shorted; currently, there is no such signal!

The following spot bottoming points are valid until the end of 2026 (not constituting synchronous long-term short profit-taking advice, different logic):

sui bottoming: 1.05 (main position), 0.75, 0.48

doge bottoming: 0.0855 (main position), 0.0738, 0.0565

bnb bottoming: 738/712 (main position), 666/642, 518/496, 398

eth bottoming: 2512 (main position), 2112, 1666/1388

btc bottoming: 74666 (main position), 69050/64250, 52400/48888

sol bottoming: 126.25/123.85 (main position), 114.85/104.85, 96.85, 84.25

Note: If the Japanese interest rate hike on 12.19 is confirmed, except for btc 74666, which can wait to enter, other coins' 'main positions' can be ignored or only enter 0.5 positions. After the Japanese interest rate hike, there will be three market phases within a week: take profit on short positions after a big spike, quickly take profit on long positions after bottoming, and add to shorts after a quick spike at high prices. If you capture these three phases in the short term, you can take a break for a while.

Summary of catalysts in the secondary market. They may not necessarily drive token prices up but will certainly align with the current market situation.

$AAVE: Aave is discussing/pushing to reduce or even remove Sky's USDS (and related stablecoin exposure) from the collateral system.

Additionally, Aave is discussing contraction and optimization of multi-chain expansion, considering gradually shutting down some on-chain deployments and setting clearer revenue thresholds.

$JUP: Kamino has blocked the Refinance migration path of Jupiter Lend at the protocol level, raising controversy over whether it violates the spirit of open finance.

$YB: YieldBasis has announced and implemented a Fee Switch, distributing captured protocol fees to veYB holders, with the first batch of fees to be distributed calculated in BTC.

$SOL / $AERO (Base) / $LINK: Base has launched the Base–Solana Bridge on the mainnet, secured by Chainlink CCIP and Coinbase, allowing Base applications to natively support Solana assets and liquidity. Additionally, Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF (GLNK) has started trading on NYSE Arca, which is also good news for LINK.

$UNI: Uniswap has integrated a fiat deposit channel with Revolut, converting users of a large European financial app into one of the on-chain incremental entry points, reducing friction for new users entering the market.

$ENA USDe has currently become one of the quoted assets for Hyperliquid spot and HIP-3 perpetuals.

$ENA / $MORPHO: 21Shares has launched Ethena (EENA) and Morpho (MORPH) spot ETPs in Europe.

The market has no bottom and no top, only trends and time. Those who want to buy at the bottom are actually trying to outsmart probability, but the result is often a lesson from probability.

Chasing prices and panic selling is a major taboo. When emotions rise, it's best to leave. Uninstalling the software is a good method; out of sight, out of mind. The hardest part is not buying, but doing nothing after buying.

The term value investing is often misused in the cryptocurrency world. True value is not about how much it goes up, but about the ability to continuously create value. A pump and dump coin rising once is luck; a value coin hitting new highs is inevitable.

Patience means using time to smooth out uncertainty. Most people still believe they are smarter and choose to play in a more difficult game, trying to get rich quickly.

In fact, the simplest strategies are often the most effective, but also the hardest to execute. Because they are simple, they are not easy.

I woke up early and took a look, it fell even more violently than before sleeping, of course, the first to act was the pancake, all I can say is, it's quite lamentable.

1. $BTC inexplicably dropped from 93000 to below 90000 and came to around 89000, I heard there was a market price dump, I can't quite understand all of this;

2. $ETH is still quite strong, still above 3000, let's see, after all, many people are saying that the BE trends are quite different now;

3. $SOL still has quite a bit of wealth creation effect on-chain, let's see if we can bring back the momentum from last year in the last month;

The interest rate hike in Japan should be the black swan in December, usually causing BTC to drop by 25,000 points and ETH by around 800-1,200 points. However, the market does not immediately drop after the news lands; typically, a super waterfall begins to brew about a week after the news is released. In the short term, staying neither up nor down is not good for holding onto long positions; instead, wait to short at higher prices after the Fed's rate cut on 12.10.

Coins closely related to Binance or CZ need more attention

Sister's speech in Dubai this time doesn't like to constantly revolve around their personal memes, but the BNBhold and vulgar penguins related to Binance indicate two directions:
Strongly related to Binance; high traffic.

For example, Binance芽 is the Chinese name for the Binance youth version app.
The capital market is also willing to pull up, but is afraid that it will be like $palu, which was issued by internal personnel of Binance, although palu has already risen many times. Binance's virtual spokespersons can also change. For instance, recently $bibi emerged as the officials have been mentioning it.

It's uncertain how far Binance芽 can go, but for those strongly related, one must still be cautious if it remains at a low level.

BTC has not yet broken through after reaching the major resistance, but the horizontal consolidation below the resistance has a high probability of breaking through in history. We can leverage the small-level pullbacks on support to simultaneously speculate on its breakthrough at the major level. The reference points are as follows:

Aggressive support 91111~90250 (watch the market for quick in and out), short-term support 89010~87330 (1:2 quick in and out), short-term resistance 93550~94600 (enter on volume breakthrough pullbacks), second resistance 97500~100000 (treat the first arrival in the short term as a high sell, and after a pullback to short-term support, you can participate in a low buy)

Note: The previous untested support is valid, please monitor it yourself. The long-term order at 78980~76260 remains unchanged. For those who want to speculate on a mid-term breakthrough after receiving short-term support, you can take profit on half after the rise and set the other half to break even.

Currently, from the daily chart perspective, BTC is facing resistance from the trend line. If it breaks above 94500, there is a chance to reach 98000; if it cannot break above, there will be a pullback. However, from the chart perspective, a retracement can still be a buying opportunity.
On the hourly chart, the trading volume is relatively low, and both bulls and bears are on the sidelines. It is recommended for everyone to stay flat and observe around 92000.
On the weekly chart level, the major trend is still downward, with the key resistance for rebound being to continue shorting.

There are often people who attribute the sluggishness of altcoins to "lack of money, no liquidity," but this is just a superficial reason.
‼️

The real key is that the market ecology and participants' mindset have changed —

The era when you could hype up coin prices with just a story is long gone; today's players are more rational and cautious, and the old routines are completely ineffective.

Currently, altcoins are struggling due to two core issues: first, there is no innovation, and second, the valuations are absurd.

In the past few years, most small coin projects have been "hyped concepts," with neither actual products landing nor real application scenarios, relying solely on fabricating stories to maintain appearances, but now no one is willing to pay for hollow narratives anymore.

On the other hand, during bull markets, VCs have crazily inflated prices, with many projects hitting exchanges with valuations in the billions of dollars; ordinary investors entering the market become the bag holders, making it impossible for such situations to heat up.

What's more realistic is that funds are becoming increasingly concentrated, much like the head effect in the U.S. stock market, where the top 10% of quality projects absorb 90% of the funds, leaving the remaining altcoins to "gather dust" in the corners.

Project teams are not foolish either; any slight market manipulation will face a sell-off, so they might as well give up on hype and choose to "lie flat" and survive.

As a result, today's altcoins often experience price drops as soon as they launch, and even the investors' faith has vanished.

To make money in such a market, the mindset must shift; stop fantasizing about becoming rich by holding long-term; the characteristics of the market are "short, fast, and fierce" — grasp the rhythm, catch a wave of short-term bursts, and exit, taking profits when possible.

Even if one is shrewd, being half a beat slow might mean missing out entirely; waiting for the next round of liquidity easing may bring new opportunities, but competition will be fiercer, and at that time, it will not be about luck but rather about logical judgment and execution ability.

In summary: the current altcoin market is no longer the era of "closing your eyes and waiting for a pump" but rather a battleground of "fast, precise, and ruthless" strategies. Only those who can adapt to the new rules will survive.

Current Situation

1⃣
It seems the market is rising, and indeed it is, but no one is making money

2⃣
When the market rises, altcoins do not rise; when the market falls, altcoins fall sharply

3⃣
There is almost no profit effect in the primary and secondary markets

4⃣
Altcoins show no signs of a broad rise

5⃣
The altcoin rallies are basically one-off

6⃣
There are no signs of sector rotation

7⃣
The altcoin recovery is still far away

Everything is ready, only lacking the east wind!
1. BTC is showing a bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows on the hourly level, having gone through sufficient consolidation and accumulation, only lacking a significant breakthrough bullish candlestick for a big surge.
2. After ETH broke through the 3100 resistance level and confirmed with a pullback, there are signs of ETH/BTC strengthening, and ETH's rebound will be significantly stronger than BTC.