Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) reflects whether coins older than one hour are being spent in profit or at a loss. Values above 1 indicate profit realization, while values below 1 signal loss realization.
Across the observed period, aSOPR continues to hover tightly around the 1.0 level, with frequent but shallow deviations on both sides. This structure shows that while some profit-taking occurs, it is not sustained or aggressive enough to indicate broad distribution. At the same time, dips below 1 remain short-lived, suggesting that loss-driven selling pressure is limited and quickly absorbed.
Compared to earlier phases in the cycle where aSOPR stayed consistently above 1 during strong bullish expansions, the current behavior points to cooling realized profitability rather than exhaustion. Importantly, the metric is also far from the prolonged sub-1 regimes that have historically marked capitulation or deeper corrective phases.
From an on-chain perspective, this positioning implies a neutral-to-slightly constructive market structure. Investors appear willing to hold rather than aggressively realize gains, while downside sell pressure remains constrained. Based on aSOPR alone, the more probable path is continued consolidation with a bullish bias, where upside continuation would require a sustained reclaim of aSOPR above 1, and downside risk would only increase if the metric begins to hold consistently below 1.
In summary, Adjusted SOPR currently supports a range-bound but upward-leaning market, rather than signaling distribution or capitulation.
Written by KriptoCenneti
