The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range after its most recent meeting, as policymakers continue to monitor inflationary pressures stemming from tensions in the Middle East. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Fed may shift to a more hawkish stance by ruling out a rate cut by the end of 2026. This could also be one of Chairman Jerome Powell's last press conferences before his term ends in May, with the possibility of him signaling a more cautious stance due to the unresolved geopolitical situation. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh has been nominated by President Donald Trump as a replacement, and if confirmed by the Senate, he could soon take over as Fed Chairman before the next meeting in June.
Markets are in a holding pattern. Let's get the full picture.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, amid a complex environment combining continued economic growth and energy-related inflationary pressures.
The current situation reflects a delicate balance between several factors:
First, the general trend remains toward a future rate cut.
Despite holding rates steady for now, markets are still pricing in gradual cuts by the end of the year, with two possible reductions anticipated in September and December.
Second, inflation is driven by energy, not demand.
Rising fuel prices are the primary driver of inflation, but the Fed views this as a temporary effect, especially given relatively weak demand and stable real incomes.
Third, the labor market is beginning to lose momentum.
Job growth is weak, suggesting a potential slowdown, which could lead companies to reduce staffing and put further pressure on profits.
Fourth, the Fed is caught between two conflicting objectives.
High inflation necessitates tightening, while a weak labor market necessitates easing.
Therefore, the current policy leans toward a wait-and-see approach.
Fifth, liquidity and Treasury bonds are under close scrutiny.
The Fed has begun reducing its bond purchases, reflecting a relative ease in liquidity, but any faster pace of balance sheet reduction could push up long-term yields.
Impact on the dollar:
While geopolitical factors are the biggest driver,:
Any hawkish tone from Powell could support the dollar
especially if it emphasizes that inflation will persist for a longer period.
Coinbase says the crypto market entered a neutral phase in Q2 2026. There is no clear trend right now, and the main drivers are outside crypto itself – macro, oil, and geopolitics.
🟠 The Middle East and oil have become the key market drivers. BTC is moving more closely with the S&P 500, while its link to gold remains weak. 🟠 Total crypto market cap fell by about 18% in Q1, but the money mostly did not leave the system – it moved into stablecoins. 🟠 That looks more like waiting out volatility than full capitulation. 🟠 Institutions see the market closer to the late stage of the bear cycle, while BTC still looks undervalued to them. 🟠 Onchain data points to a market cleanup: short-term activity is falling, while long-term holders keep accumulating. 🟠 Ethereum, in Coinbase’s view, has already gone through capitulation and is slowly moving into recovery. 🟠 Capital is concentrating more and more in mainnet activity, stablecoins, and the RWA segment. 🟠 The main triggers ahead are either de-escalation, lower oil and inflation, or the opposite – a new escalation, higher oil, and recession risk.
The main takeaway is simple: the market is no longer moving as one big growth cycle, and from here money will likely flow not into everything, but into the strongest stories only.
Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Focus Shifts to Powell's Future and the Possibility of Warsh Taking Over Amid Rising Inflation and Bond Yields.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the market is focused on whether Jerome Powell will leave office and the possibility of Kevin Warsh taking over. Rising inflation due to oil prices could push US bond yields above 5%, increasing market risk.
$BTC April was not a bad month at all. Especially considering all that has been going on in the world.
May is usually a bit of a slower month with mixed results.
Starting June, the Summer seasonality kicks in which usually sees low volumes & liquidity during the holidays. This is especially clear in TradFi markets and is why in many years, we see slow price action during this time.
In crypto however, the summer usually does see some interesting narratives and there's always something going on. So let's wait and see if that's the case again.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends on May 15th.
He leaves behind a significant and uncertain legacy.
The US economy is not weak, but it is certainly unstable.
US economic growth reached 2.1% in 2025 and is projected to reach 2.3% this year.
The biggest burden is undoubtedly the size of the US debt, which reached $39 trillion this month. Therefore, the Fed's biggest challenge has become managing the cost of government financing and balancing it with interest rates.
Inflation readings are also unstable after rising last month due to energy problems following the Iran nuclear deal.
The financial markets are the only sector Powell leaves at historic highs, supported by artificial intelligence.
🚨 If you started with $100, you'll now have $1,000,000 in just 6 hours! 😵💥💥💥
The #Scam_Altman coin exploded because it capitalized on a very hot trend surrounding Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI, following the start of a heated legal battle between Elon Musk and OpenAI/Altman. Musk used the nicknames “Scam Altman” and “Greg Stockman” to mock them, accusing them of “stealing from a charity” by transforming OpenAI from a non-profit idea into a for-profit giant. Then the coin appeared on Pump.fun with almost the same name, and speculators quickly jumped on the bandwagon.
Imagine if you had entered with $100 at the beginning at a price of 0.000002 and sold near 0.02… you could have become almost $1,000,000.
Paul Atkins and Mike Selig said at Bitcoin 2026 that a “new stage” is beginning for the crypto industry, with a focus on bringing projects back to the US, creating clearer rules, and pushing tokenization forward.
For the market, this is an important shift: regulators are speaking less in the language of pressure and more in the language of bringing crypto business back onshore under a new set of rules.