$BTC Alert : Entering a Historically Risky Zone

Glassnode’s on-chain risk bands are flashing warning signals once again.

Right now, BTC is trading extremely close to the same realized cost-basis levels that marked the starting point of major drawdowns in previous cycles. This is creating significant downward pressure.

For those unfamiliar: these risk bands essentially measure how “stretched” the market is by comparing price to the average cost basis of all holders. When price approaches or dips slightly below these levels late in a bull cycle, it historically signals that conviction among buyers is weakening and the market is vulnerable to a deeper correction.

We’ve seen this exact setup precede every major top and subsequent bear market since 2013.

This doesn’t guarantee an immediate crash, but history shows this is one of the highest-probability zones for a cyclical peak or at least a severe multi-month pullback.

Proceed with extreme caution. Risk management is critical right now.

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