Three major signals help $ETH take off, my goal remains unchanged. The black air force may collectively be wiped out

🔥 Ethereum W-bottom confirmation: Breakthrough of the previous high is imminent, but beware of these traps

📊 On-chain bottoming ironclad evidence

1. Whale bottom-buying signal:

- From October 24 to December 1, over 1,000 ETH addresses increased their holdings by more than 7.6 million (accounting for 6.3% of the circulating supply)

- Exchange ETH reserves dropped to 13 million, hitting the lowest level since September 2021

2. Technical resonance:

- Weekly W-bottom neckline breakout ($2,840), trading volume increased by 217% year-on-year

- Monthly RSI bottom divergence, MACD underwater golden cross (historical similar patterns have an average increase of 83%)

3. Derivatives shift:

- Perpetual contract funding rate returns to neutral, open interest exceeds $12 billion (bullish accumulation signal)

- Option skew index drops to -8%, bullish sentiment reaches a six-month high 5

🚀 Three major take-off engines

1. Ecological upgrade bonus

- Glamsterdam upgrade: Gas limit increased to 40 million, Layer 2 throughput doubled again 36

- ERC-7281 standard: Meme coins bind to real profits, attracting $230 million in new funds

2. Institutional buying spree

- BitMEX's parent company spent $389 million to buy ETH spot

- Grayscale ETHE discount narrows to 5.7%, BlackRock's spot ETF application countdown 7

3. Macroeconomic support

- Fed's 2024 interest rate cut expectations heat up, crypto fear and greed index jumps to 71 (greed zone)⚠️ Hidden risks before take-off

1. Main force distribution risk:

- A mysterious address "0x7be" recently transferred 120,000 ETH (about $340 million) to Binance

- Futures open interest concentration reached 92%, posing risks of both long and short explosions

2. Technical false breakout:

- Daily TD sequence shows a count of 13, short-term pullback probability surges 4

- 2,900-3,000 has an 1.8 billion options maximum pain resistance wall

3. Regulatory black swan:

- SEC delays spot ETF resolution to Q2 2024, Coinbase lawsuit becomes a key variable 7

🎯 Operational strategy

- Breakout confirmation: Daily close above 3,150 to add positions, target 3,900-4,200 5

- Stop-loss baseline: Weekly drop below $2,670 to stop-loss, prevent C-wave sell-off

- Hedge portfolio: Buy $3,000 put options + hold L2 protocol tokens