In the latest capital flow report that has just been released, strategists at Bank of America (BofA), led by Michael Hartnett, issued an important warning about the dangerous complacency of both Fed policymakers and the financial market in the face of the sharp surge in bond yields.
According to data from EPFR Global, U.S. stock funds saw net outflows of up to $14.2 billion in just the past 3 weeks— the highest level since January. Flows into global equities also dropped sharply to $7 billion per week from $52 billion in July. Even as the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since June 2007 and oil prices broke above $100 per barrel, policymakers still appeared calm and left open the possibility of further rate hikes, creating a dangerous mismatch for the economy.
This move is draining liquidity from the traditional financial market, keeping the USD supported at a high level and pushing the cost of capital to alarming levels. When risk-free yields are at record highs, the pressure to reprice financial assets grows even stronger, increasing the risk of broad, severe volatility.
For the crypto market, a tightening liquidity environment and a strong USD are major obstacles for new capital into
$BTC . However, if this complacency leads to a deep correction in the traditional financial system that forces the Fed to reverse course earlier, crypto could quickly become the first channel to absorb liquidity when capital seeks shelter.
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