【In-Depth】ETH Has Fallen Into Oversold Territory—Can the Glamsterdam Upgrade at Year-End Save It?
ETH has fallen to 2,354, with a daily RSI of just 25. It has dropped even harder than BTC. But Ethereum has a major upgrade scheduled to go live on mainnet at the end of the year—Glamsterdam. What exactly will this upgrade change? Could it become a catalyst for a rebound? Let’s break it down, then go over a trading plan.
1️⃣ Glamsterdam: Ethereum’s Major Upgrade at Year-End
It combines Amsterdam on the execution layer and Gloas on the consensus layer. It has two key features:
ePBS (EIP-7732): Separates block proposers from transaction packagers and builds the separation directly into the protocol, rather than relying on external relays, reducing trust risks from intermediaries.
Block-level access lists (EIP-7928): Tells nodes in advance which data a block will read and write, allowing transactions to be executed in parallel. This is a prerequisite for significantly raising the Gas limit.
Impact: According to KuCoin, after the Sepolia testnet upgrade, the block Gas limit increased from about 60 million to 200 million, roughly 3.3 times higher. However, actual utilization was only 26%–46%, and the mainnet limit may also be raised in stages.
2️⃣ Timeline: Mainnet Is Likely in December
October 6: The Sepolia testnet upgrade was completed successfully.
October 26: The second and final public testnet, Hoodi, is scheduled to upgrade (according to GitHub configuration and Christine Kim).
Mainnet: The Ethereum Foundation’s page says “Q4 2026”; no date has been set yet. Based on the 56–72-day pattern from the first testnet to mainnet for the Dencun, Pectra, and Fusaka upgrades, the launch could land around December 1–17. If delayed again, it could be pushed to January next year.
Risk: According to CoinDesk, developers have warned that under ePBS, a “fake builder” could win the bid but fail to deliver a block, slowing down the chain. This is an issue that needs to be resolved before mainnet.
3️⃣ Further Ahead: Hegotá (Expected in 2027)
The key feature is FOCIL (EIP-7805): 17 participants are randomly selected for each block and can force transactions to be included, preventing builders from censoring transactions. Verkle trees, stateless clients, account abstraction, and other features are still under discussion, with their scope tracked by EIP-8081 (according to EIPsInsight).
4️⃣ Can the Upgrade Lift ETH’s Price?
Historically, there have been two kinds of outcomes: after the 2022 Merge and 2024 Dencun upgrade, prices fell once the good news was priced in; after Pectra went live in May 2025, ETH rose about 40% in a week. The difference comes down to whether prices were already pumped before the upgrade. This time, ETH is heading into the upgrade after a sharp drop and in oversold territory, with expectations low—which could make a Pectra-style rebound more likely.
5️⃣ Trading Plan (Binance data at 19:07)
Current situation: ETH at 2,363; 7-day low of 2,318; daily RSI at 25; below the daily MA20 (2,597) and MA50 (2,553).
Futures: Open interest plunged 18.2% in 24 hours, with a large amount of leveraged positions liquidated. But the long/short account ratio rose from 2.85 to 3.14, meaning retail traders are still adding longs, so there could be one more sharp wick down before a rebound.
Key levels: 2,258–2,313 is a confluence support zone between the daily MA100 and the 0.382 Fib retracement of this rally. Below that are Fib 0.5 (2,160) and Fib 0.618 (2,007). To the upside, 2,490 (4-hour MA25) and 2,548 (Fib 0.5) are the first resistance levels.
Primary plan: Place staggered long orders between 2,260–2,310, using 2,290 as a reference; stop-loss at 2,200; first target 2,490, second target 2,548.
Backup plan: If the daily close falls below 2,200, wait to enter at 2,160 and 2,007. Don’t chase.
Invalidation: A break below 2,007 would mean even upgrade expectations can’t provide support. Wait until the mainnet date is set before reassessing.
My view: In the short term, this is an oversold rebound play. In the medium term, watch whether Hoodi upgrades smoothly on October 26 and when the mainnet date is set. As long as mainnet is scheduled for December, ETH will have a clear narrative to support it.
Do you think Glamsterdam will be the turning point for ETH this cycle?
Sources: Ethereum Foundation, CoinDesk, Christine Kim, KuCoin, EIPsInsight, Binance market data
#以太坊 #Glamsterdam
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⚠️ The above is a compilation of information and personal views, and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.