Everyone, I’m going to open a large short position on
$SHAZ .
Take profit: 24.56
Stop loss: 27.4867
👇 Reasoning below
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I shorting at this level?
Because it’s relatively high.
The 20-day range is 19.1 to 28.7. The latest 15-minute candle closed at 26.44, which is in the 76.5th percentile.
It’s already up +22.58% over the past 7 days, and more holders are starting to take profits at this point.
Another factor is crowded positioning.
Small-cap contracts can surge quickly, and their reversals can be just as irrational. An asset with a market cap like
$BNB can’t offer this kind of volatility, and neither can
$TRX .
I’m looking at it not because the story is compelling, but because the price is stretched.
This level is like that spot downstairs where the wind funnels through: when a gust comes, the people standing furthest out are the first to get knocked down.
I’ve kept both the take-profit and stop-loss within the average daily volatility. This is the most important positioning rule to follow with small-cap contracts, and the only call I dare make.
Average daily volatility (daily ATR14) is about 10.49%.
Take profit at 24.56, -7.11% from the current price.
Stop loss at 27.4867, +3.96% from the current price.
The risk-reward ratio for this trade is about 1.80.
Honestly, when I first saw the price of 26.44, I thought I must have misread it. I checked twice before believing it was still above the 70th percentile.
The biggest fear with a short position is a sudden wick. In a thinly traded market, one wick can sweep away a whole layer of positions.
I’ve left only a 3.96% buffer above the stop loss. If it breaks through, I’ll take the loss.
Do you think this position is conservative enough? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#SHAZ #BNB #Crypto
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.