oilmarket

Back in 2008 oil damn near hit $148 a barrel and gas was around 4 bucks.
Now oil is way lower and somehow we’re still paying more at the pump.
You can throw out all the excuses you want, but regular people know when something smells fishy.
Something ain’t right.
$XAG $XAU $BTC
#OilMarket #oil #oilpricesup #LowFeeAdvantage #freesignalcrypto

$TRUMP

🇺🇸 Trump is considering keeping U.S. diesel at home for 90 days to get prices down before the midterms.

Diesel is averaging $6.52 a gallon, up $2.83 from last year, and farm-state Republicans want something done.

The idea is: stop exporting diesel, keep more of it in the U.S., and prices could fall pretty quickly.

The problem starts a few weeks later.

Refineries make diesel, gasoline and jet fuel together. If they can't export all that diesel and run out of places to put it, they may have to slow the whole refinery down.

Now you're making less diesel, less gasoline and less jet fuel, and prices could start climbing again.

That's why some of Trump's own officials and oil companies are trying to talk him out of it, while the White House is calling the report “fake news.”

Basically, the plan could solve October and create a problem for December.

Source: Politico

#oil #OilMarket #USGovernment

$BTC
🇸🇦🇨🇳🇮🇳 Saudi is flooding Asia with nearly 100 MILLION barrels of oil...

Since mid-last week, the kingdom has sold a massive volume of crude for October and November delivery to refiners in China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

Most of it will move through the Strait of Hormuz because the East-West pipeline is still not fully back online after the September 10 attack.

The sales help ease a tightening market in Asia, where buyers have been struggling with higher prices, reduced Iranian flows, and growing caution over Russian crude.

Aramco is even handling more of the shipping itself to get the oil moving.

Source: Bloomberg

#BTC #worldnews #OilMarket

Maritime tracking data revealed on Wednesday that only 10 commercial vessels transited through the vital Strait of Hormuz, marking a sharp drop from the 10-day moving average of approximately 17 vessels.

This noticeable disruption at one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints highlights escalating geopolitical friction in the Middle East. With roughly a fifth of global petroleum consumption flowing through this narrow corridor, any substantial slowdown in shipping traffic immediately triggers supply shock fears across energy markets.

From a broader macroeconomic perspective, persistent bottlenecks here threaten to reignite global inflationary pressures through surging crude oil prices and spiking freight rates. This dynamic risks complicating monetary policy for central banks, potentially putting upward pressure on bond yields and strengthening the US dollar as a defensive asset.

For the crypto sector, heightened geopolitical risk and energy-driven inflation fears typically dampen short-term risk appetite, leading to cautious capital allocation across digital assets. However, if energy disruptions prolong broader economic instability, decentralized assets like $BTC could see renewed interest as non-sovereign macro hedges.

#Geopolitics #OilMarket #MacroEconomy

$TRUMP
🚨BREAKING: Trump administration is preparing a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports, with an announcement possible by the end of the week, per Politico.

U.S. diesel prices have climbed above $6.50 per gallon as fuel costs intensify pressure ahead of the midterms.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright reportedly told energy CEOs a ban was coming, prompting immediate pushback to the White House.

Restrictions could cut refinery runs by roughly 2 MILLION barrels per day and gasoline output by up to 750,000 barrels per day, according to WSJ.

A ban intended to lower diesel prices could backfire by reducing refinery output and driving gasoline and jet-fuel prices higher.

#USGovernment #worldnews #oil #OilMarket

$OILT.ETF

🔎 Step-by-Step Candlestick Analysis Framework

1. Identify Key Price Support and Resistance

Locate the Boundaries: Find structural levels where the candles historically reverse direction.

Current Baseline: On a long-term macro view, look for strong physical support floors (such as the 52-week low near $65.99) and hard upside supply ceilings (such as the recent high zone near $163.35). Breakouts or breakdowns out of these areas signal major trend shifts.

2. Evaluate the Moving Average Intersections

The Trend Baseline: Use the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to determine the core macro bias. Currently, sitting above the 200-day line (~$138.94) maintains an overall bullish long-term environment.

Short-Term Friction: Track crossovers between short-term lines like the 5-day (~$154.33) and medium-term lines like the 50-day (~$156.50). A death cross (shorter average diving below the longer one) implies immediate selling pressure even if the long-term trend holds.

3. Recognize High-Conviction Candlestick Patterns

Bullish Reversals: Watch for setups near support zones like a Morning Star (a 3-candle bottom pattern) or a Piercing Line. Long bottom wicks (Hammers) show aggressive intra-period buying rejection at lower prices.

Bearish Reversals: Be cautious of large red candles closing near the absolute bottom of their daily range, which proves sellers dominate total control. Clusters of candles with long upper wicks (Shooting Stars) at upper resistance points reveal profit-taking.

4. Confirm Momentum via Secondary Indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Track if the 14-day RSI drops into oversold territory (below 30) or breaches overbought extremes (above 70). A neutral reading near 42.5 indicates temporary cooling from previous momentum peaks.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Look for signal line cross-overs to enter or exit trades. Negative histogram slopes indicate expanding downward acceleration

#oil #OilPrice #OilPrice #OilMarket

Indian Oil Minister Pradhan has recently made it clear that despite the prospect of potential U.S. sanctions, India will maintain diesel exports and has no intention of following the United States by curbing diesel exports to rein in domestic fuel prices. Pradhan emphasized that India will honor its commitments and said that India’s domestic refining industry, through continued investment and expanded capacity, already has sufficient ability to cope with market fluctuations. According to shipping data firm Kpler, India has this year surpassed Russia to become the world’s second-largest seaborne diesel supplier after the United States, accounting for roughly 10% of global seaborne diesel exports.

Against the backdrop of a reshaping global energy landscape, this stance is especially significant. With the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions disrupting parts of traditional supply chains, India—by importing crude oil, processing it, and re-exporting—has increasingly become an indispensable buffer pool in global energy flows. By keeping its export doors open, India to a large extent eases market fears of a further, hard shortage of refined fuel supplies, though it also makes the geopolitical and trade game more nuanced.

For macro financial markets, India’s supply stability helps moderate some energy-inflation expectations. If crude oil and refined products remain relatively abundant and mobile, it could ease secondary inflation pressures in major economies such as the U.S. and Europe, thereby affecting central banks’ room for maneuver in interest-rate decisions. However, the multipolar development of energy supply chains also keeps fueling debate over the continued centrality of the U.S. dollar as a settlement core, and the pricing logic in commodities markets is becoming more diverse.

Looking at the crypto market, energy and inflation-expectation swings have long been underlying variables that influence macro liquidity. If key energy supplies such as diesel remain relatively smooth, macro inflation pressure will be more controllable, providing a steadier environment for overall risk assets; conversely, if subsequent geopolitical tensions escalate and translate into actual sanctions, heightened risk-off sentiment would directly affect the capital flows into mainstream assets such as $BTC . Overall, the contest is still unfolding and is worth ongoing monitoring.📊

#OilMarket #GlobalEconomy #EnergyGeopolitics

$TRUMP
🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Oil just gave back some of its war premium…

Brent fell 2% to $101.75 and WTI dropped to $98.34, the weakest levels since Sept. 10, as traders bet UN General Assembly meetings could open a diplomatic off-ramp.

Trump said he is open to meeting Iran’s president in New York even as both sides kept issuing threats. Tehran has already sent conditions through Qatar.

Markets are pricing in hope, not a deal. One failed meeting and that risk premium comes right back.

Source: Al Jazeera

#CryptoNewss #OilMarket

$TRUMP
🇺🇸 BREAKING: U.S. diesel prices smash $6.50 for the FIRST TIME EVER as the war-driven fuel shock hits the economy.

AAA’s national average surged to a record $6.505 per gallon on Sept. 20, up from $6.20 a week ago and $5.55 a month ago.

Diesel powers America’s trucking, farming and industrial economy, meaning the record surge could quickly feed into higher freight costs, food prices and broader inflation.

#OilMarket #CryptoNews #worldnews

According to the latest shipping-tracking data, only three cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, while the 10-day moving average for this key route is typically around 15 vessels, with daily throughput showing an extremely sharp drop.

As the lifeline of global crude oil transportation, the steep reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz quickly sparked market concerns about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the risk of disruptions to energy supply chains. In the current climate, when ship traffic falls far below the norm, it usually reflects a lower risk appetite among shipping companies or a growing concern about a potential blockade.

From a macro financial market perspective, disruptions to Middle East shipping often directly drive up the international crude oil premium and global shipping costs, which in turn puts upward pressure on inflation expectations. If the energy supply chain continues to face strain, it could not only delay the timing of major central banks’ rate cuts, but also raise safe-haven sentiment—drawing attention to the U.S. dollar and gold—while high-valued risk assets face repricing.

For the crypto market, in the short term, macro liquidity may be roiled by disturbances to inflation expectations, leading to $BTC and major tokens experiencing volatile pressure. If geopolitical tensions cool rapidly and shipping returns to normal, the market may revert to fundamentals; but if an energy shock becomes prolonged, the shift of capital toward safety will be a test of overall liquidity in risk assets.📍

#Geopolitics #OilMarket #GlobalEconomy

🛢️ Oil gave us a choice. We’re not pressing the button yet.

Entered $CL Long at $90 — 2% deposit.

The plan is simple:
not to guess the bottom, but to wait until the market shows its hand.

Right now CL did:
93.2 → 89.14 → ~90
Interesting? Very. 👀

89.14 might turn out to be a liquidity sweep. But until the 4H confirms a reclaim — this is only a hypothesis.

And then it gets even more interesting:
🎯 96+ — our fixation zone
🧲 80–82 — a zone where we can look for adds
⚠️ 77–79 — if the market decides to go deeper

Oil is trading not only the chart right now.
In this game there’s Hormuz, supply, geopolitics, and a massive flow of liquidity.

Let’s see who outsmarts whom. 🛢️♟️
Not financial advice. Just watching the game.
#OilMarket #long

Russia plans to further extend its diesel export ban beyond September. This is mainly because recent continued attacks by Ukraine on refineries inside Russia have pushed its refining capacity to the lowest level in years. The ban was first introduced in July and was originally expected to last only a few weeks, but due to repeated strikes on refining facilities, Moscow has already postponed it several times. It is now considering extending it by another month or even longer.

At the macro level, this development is worth close attention. Before the ban was implemented, seaborne diesel supply from Russia accounted for about 10% of the global total. The continued absence of this large volume of supply directly worsens supply tightness in the global fuel market, especially when compounded by disruptions to supply chains in the Middle East, causing upward pressure on energy prices to build further.

For traditional financial markets, higher crude oil and refined product prices often raise inflation expectations. An energy-cost rebound could make the rate-cutting paths of major central banks more difficult to predict, thereby affecting the trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index, and also pulling up volatility in commodity markets.

Translated to the crypto market, repeated shifts in expectations for macro liquidity often leave market sentiment in a tug-of-war. On the one hand, if inflation-related disruptions suppress the valuation of risk assets, mainstream tokens such as $BTC may, in the short term, move along with the broader market as it consolidates and trades sideways. On the other hand, some investors may re-factor anti-inflation narratives into their decision-making. How the market will respond next will need to be monitored continuously, particularly changes in supply on the energy side.

#OilMarket #Geopolitics #Inflation

China Is Becoming a Bigger Variable in the Oil Market

🛢 During the first six months of the Iran war, China’s oil imports fell 23% year over year as Beijing slowed stockpiling, began drawing on part of its inventories, and refiners reduced operating rates.

📉 Goldman Sachs estimates that by the end of August, oil prices were about $10 per barrel lower than they would have been if China had maintained its pre-war buying pace. This is a counterfactual estimate, but it highlights how strongly Chinese demand can influence global prices.

⚙️ China’s influence also extends to refined products, as restrictions on exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel have tightened fuel supply across parts of Asia.

🌏 Rather than controlling supply like OPEC, China is increasingly acting as a “swing buyer,” using the scale of its imports, inventories, and refining capacity to influence marginal demand in the oil market.

#OilMarket $CL $NATGAS

Global Oil Market Overview
Oil prices are experiencing a slight retreat today after a multi-day rally, though major benchmarks continue to trade above the key $100 per barrel threshold:
Key Headlines & Market Drivers
* Current Benchmark Prices:
* Brent Crude: Trading around $104.24 per barrel, down about 1% today as short-term supply anxiety eases slightly.
* WTI Crude: Holding around $100.94 per barrel.
* Middle East Shipping & Supply Disruption: Prices remain elevated due to lingering supply risks, including reduced shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing pipeline maintenance issues in the Middle East.
* U.S. Inventories Impact: An unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories reported earlier this week has provided temporary price relief, pulling crude off recent multi-month highs.
* Fed Rate Decisions: Energy markets are also digesting the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decisions and interest rate path, which continue to influence global demand expectations.
#OilPrice #oil #Oil Brent CrudeOil Macro Inflation Crypto Bitcoin TradingBooms #OilMarket

Continental moves into Venezuelan heavy oil with large-scale Ayacucho 2 project

🛢 Continental Resources and PDVSA have signed an MOU to develop the Ayacucho 2 block in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt. The agreement remains a preliminary step, with the two sides expected to move toward a formal development contract in the coming weeks.

📊 Continental estimates the block contains around 30 billion barrels of oil in place, but this does not represent recoverable reserves. The project still requires seismic work, exploration and infrastructure assessment before production can begin.

⏳ First oil could come as early as around 18 months after the necessary agreements and preparations are completed, while capital spending and production targets have not yet been disclosed.

🌍 For now, the deal is more significant as a signal of renewed investment in Venezuela’s oil sector than as a source of immediate new supply.

#OilMarket $CL

🚨📢 CURRENT OVERVIEW OF OIL (OIL)🛢️

The value of oil continues to be controlled by the tightness of supply and the pressure from interest rates. The evolution of prices will depend on the safe reestablishment of export routes and on the direction of monetary policy in the United States.
#oil #OilMarket #OilPrice $BZ $CL

Geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have shown signs of escalating again. According to industry reports from multiple parties, after a Ukrainian drone attack at night, the Yaroslavl refinery of Russia’s Slavneft Oil Company, located about 250 kilometers northeast of Moscow, has suspended crude oil processing operations. The local governor, Mikhail Yevrayeve, confirmed the plant was hit by a large-scale drone attack and that 65 drones were downed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also confirmed the operation. It is reported that the refinery’s key AVT-3 atmospheric-vacuum distillation unit was damaged; that unit has a daily processing capacity of 171,400 tons (about 40% of the refinery’s total capacity). Combined with the AVT-4 unit, which was also damaged on August 28 and is still under repair, this has caused the refinery’s fuel to be suspended from being listed on the Russian commodity exchange as of Thursday.

Meanwhile, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also publicly warned that Russia may carry out hybrid attacks against NATO eastern flank countries that support Ukraine.

As one of Russia’s key refining hubs, the repeated damage to the plant’s core units underscores the reality that energy infrastructure is increasingly becoming a focal point of the conflict. This has once again heightened market concerns about the stability of regional energy supply, breaking prior expectations of disruptions on the supply side.

From the perspective of traditional financial markets, uncertainty on the crude oil supply side often directly affects energy futures prices and inflation expectations. If geopolitical tensions further spread to a wider range of infrastructure or surrounding areas, the volatility of commodities and traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar could intensify.

For the crypto market, macro geopolitical risk is a double-edged sword. Some funds may turn cautious or wait on the sidelines as risk-off sentiment rises, putting short-term pressure on the broader market. At the same time, some believe that decentralized assets have censorship-resistant properties. In the short term, $BTC the overall price action may continue to fluctuate and consolidate in line with global liquidity and macro risk sentiment.

#Geopolitics #OilMarket #CryptoAnalysis

Recently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict front line and geopolitical confrontation have once again shown a substantive escalation. According to industry reports and official briefings, after the Yaroslavl refinery of Slavneft (Slavneft), located about 250 kilometers northeast of Moscow, was targeted by a Ukrainian drone attack at night, it has suspended crude oil processing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also confirmed the operation. It is reported that the attack damaged the AVT-3 key distillation unit, with daily processing capacity of 1.714 million tons and accounting for roughly 40% of the plant’s total production capacity. Meanwhile, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk publicly warned that, based on intelligence assessments, Russia is planning to carry out hybrid attacks against NATO member states that support Ukraine, and that geopolitical friction is spilling beyond more dangerous boundaries.

From a macro fundamentals perspective, energy infrastructure continues to suffer precise strikes, meaning the fragility of regional energy supply chains is being further amplified. The shutdown of the Yaroslavl refinery not only directly disrupts the balance of supply in Russia’s domestic and surrounding refined-product markets, but also sends a clear signal to the market that the fighting is deeply eroding core energy assets. Against the backdrop of inflation stickiness not yet fully fading, such supply-side shocks often permeate the real economy faster than expected rate-cut tailwinds.

For traditional financial markets, a substantive escalation in geopolitical conflict typically drives a rise in risk-avoidance sentiment. Expectations of tighter supplies of commodities such as crude oil will provide firm support to energy prices, thereby lifting global inflation expectations and constraining central banks’ room for easing. Transatlantic and U.S./European bond yields face repeated volatility, while safe-haven capital is more inclined to return to the U.S. dollar and sovereign safe-haven assets. The valuation center of global risk assets may face another round of stress testing.

In the crypto-asset sector, investors should remain cautious against blind optimism. Although some funds may view $BTC as a potential hedging tool against censorship during the geopolitical crisis, in a macro environment dominated by tightened liquidity and risk-avoidance sentiment, it often creates a “siphoning effect” on the crypto market in the short term. If a rebound in commodity prices rekindles concerns about inflation, the deleveraging process for risk assets may accelerate, and in the short run the market is likely to maintain wide-range fluctuations and a pressured performance.

#Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #OilMarket

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has just confirmed a large-scale drone attack overnight targeting the Yaroslavl oil refinery plant of Slavneft, located about 250 km from Moscow. The incident damaged the main distillation tower AVT-3 (accounting for 40% of capacity), forcing the facility to temporarily halt crude oil processing. The move comes alongside a warning from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk about the risk of Russia deploying hybrid warfare and drones infiltrating NATO’s eastern flank airspace.

Ukraine’s continued precision strikes on Russia’s critical energy infrastructure are increasing the level of geopolitical risk premium. When major oil refining complexes are brought to a standstill, pressure on regional fuel supplies will intensify, disrupting the existing expectations of stability in the energy market.

On the macro level, fears of disruptions to the crude oil supply chain and heightened NATO border tensions could trigger a wave of seeking safe-haven assets. Crude oil and gold face upward price pressure, while cautious sentiment may put strain on global stock markets.

For the crypto market, escalating geopolitical instability often leads short-term capital to flow out of high-risk channels as a form of defense. $BTC is very likely to continue testing key support zones and experience sharp volatility in response to updates from the fighting before establishing a clearer trend. 🛡️

#Geopolitics #OilMarket #CryptoMarket