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Not one of the ten assets is above its 20-day moving average; switch to the 100-day line and nine are still above it

Not one of the ten major coins is above its 20-day moving average. BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, DOT: across these ten USDT spot pairs, using 120 daily candles for each, as of 8:19 this morning, the number above the 20-day moving average is zero.

The red line in the chart is the count. From September 18 to October 6, it stayed pinned at the top for 19 consecutive days, at a full 10/10. On October 7, it fell to 2. On October 8, it hit zero. In the 17 days that followed, it only climbed back to 3 on October 11, and BTC was the only one to get above the line on October 21. Now it’s been at zero for three days in a row.

A lot of people think that when all ten have fallen below the line, the trend is over. Not so fast. Look at the blue dashed line. For the same ten assets, nine are still above their 100-day moving averages today.

Same closing prices, two moving averages, two different answers.

What’s the difference? A moving average is the average closing price over the previous N days. The 20-day average covers only the most recent month, so when prices fall, it follows them down; a break below it was bound to happen. The 100-day average covers more than three months and includes August’s rally, which is why it’s still sitting below prices today. A slow-moving average can’t see the past 17 days. That’s how it’s built, not a judgment call.

The equal-weight index below puts the scale in perspective. Each of the ten assets is normalized to 100 based on its price 120 days ago, and then averaged. It peaked at 160.12 on October 4 and is at 137.35 today, down 14.22% from the peak. Relative to the starting point 120 days ago, it’s still up 37.35%. BTC itself went from 60,029.00 to 80,972.74, a gain of 34.89%.

Equal-weighted and market-cap-weighted are two different things. BTC is the largest by far, so in a market-cap-weighted index, it essentially calls the shots; it’s hard to see what the other nine are doing. Equal weighting gives each of the ten a 10% share, bringing the breadth into view. On August 15, this line was still at 107.29. By October 4, it had reached 160.12, a 49.24% gain in 50 days. That steep rally is exactly why the 100-day moving average is still well below prices.

So “down” and “broken” are two different things. A 14% pullback hasn’t even erased a third of the gains made over three months.

Now look at the distance. BNB is just 0.50% below its 20-day moving average, BTC is 2.01% below, ETH 3.81%, SOL and XRP are both 5.02%, DOGE is 5.91%, LINK is 6.36%, DOT is 6.50%, ADA is 9.67%, and AVAX is 10.27%. All ten are below. The gaps range from shallow to twice as deep. Quite a spread.

This isn’t the first time the line has hit 0/10. From June 27 to July 15, it sat at zero for 19 consecutive days. It also hit zero for one day on September 15, then was back to 10/10 three days later, on September 18. From October 12 to October 20, it was at zero for nine days in a row; BTC briefly got above the line on October 21, then the count dropped back to zero, where it remains. Three times at zero. Three different outcomes. There’s no real pattern.

On its own, 0/10 tells you nothing about direction. It only says participation is low; it doesn’t say which way prices will go next. That sounds like stating the obvious. It isn’t.

One thing needs to be clear. The 100-day moving average is a slow line, and the main reason it’s still at 9/10 today is that prices rallied so sharply in August—not because it’s good at making predictions. Using a moving average that takes 100 days to turn to judge what happened over the past 17 days is basically like driving by looking in the rearview mirror. Stronger evidence is that the equal-weight index hasn’t fallen below its starting point from 120 days ago. That has nothing to do with moving averages.

And those nine assets above the 100-day moving average aren’t exactly on solid ground. XRP is only 0.13% above it, and ADA just 0.56%—two down days could be enough to flip them below. DOGE, the only one that has fallen below, is 3.87% away. This distribution shows that support from the slow-moving average is thin—thin enough to break without a major sell-off.

There’s also a sampling bias. These ten coins move closely together, so 0/10 is ten readings from the same market move, not ten independent signals. Treating it as ten confirmations would overstate how reliable the conclusion is.

What would invalidate the assessment above? If the equal-weight index falls below 100—that is, returns to its June 27 starting point—then it would no longer hold up to say “it’s just a pullback.” For now, it’s still 37 percentage points away from that line, so the cushion isn’t thin. On the other hand, if 0/10 lasts for more than 19 consecutive days, that would show this recovery is taking much longer than the previous one. Both need time to play out; there’s no rushing it.

The daily candle for October 24 is not complete. The chart shows the intraday price, and closeTime is October 25, 07:59:59 (UTC+8). If prices climb above the line before the close, today won’t be 0/10.

For now, you only need to watch one number: BNB at 742.435. It’s closest to its 20-day moving average, just 0.50% away. If BNB reclaims the line, 0/10 becomes 1/10—that’s the first reading of a recovery in breadth. Conversely, if 0/10 lasts longer than the 19 days in the June episode, it would mean this round is more drawn out than the last one.

Source: https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines

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