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Ethereum Market Deep-Dive Analysis: Clear Technical Upgrade Roadmap, On-Chain Selling Pressure Gradually Being Absorbed

1. Price Trend Analysis

As of early September 29 Beijing time, Ethereum’s spot price is $2,691. In the past 24 hours, it has been consolidating in a tight range of $2,667 to $2,694. From the hourly K-line charts, the most recent five candles show mild fluctuations and a sideways pattern. Price has remained near the 7-day moving average, suggesting the market is waiting for a new catalyst to break the current equilibrium.

From the funding perspective, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded an estimated net inflow of about $690 million last week. Meanwhile, enterprise-level wallets increased holdings by more than 17,000 ETH during the same period, indicating institutional investors still remain optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term prospects. However, on-chain data shows there has been sustained net capital outflow recently, which is related to the Bitget hacker incident—where the attacker sold ETH via decentralized protocols. This has created some short-term downward pressure on price.

According to the Bollinger Bands indicator, the upper band is around $2,709, the middle band around $2,673, and the lower band around $2,637. The current price is trading between the middle and upper bands, placing it in a relatively bullish zone overall. However, resistance at the upper band is fairly evident; in the short term, price needs to break above $2,710 to open up room for further upside.

2. Interpretation of Technical Indicators

From the composite signal indicators perspective, among 15 factors, 5 are issuing long signals (33.3%), 9 are issuing short signals (60%), and 1 remains neutral. Although the short-term factors are skewed bearish, the composite indicator value is still positive, and the overall signal direction is bullish. The historical win rate is 78.57%, suggesting that the long-term technical outlook still favors the bulls.

Moving average system: The 7-day moving average is around $2,684, and the 25-day moving average around $2,670. The short-term moving averages are positioned above the long-term moving averages, maintaining a bullish alignment. The 99-day moving average is around $2,686, roughly matching the current price. Whether price can hold or lose this level will determine the short-term direction.

The MACD indicator shows encouraging signals: the fast line is about 2.63, the slow line about 0.64, and the histogram around 1.99. MACD has been running above the zero axis, and both the fast and slow lines are diverging upward—an典型 signal that bullish momentum is strengthening. Although the histogram has narrowed slightly compared with the prior value, the overall trend remains positive.

For the RSI indicator: the 6-period RSI is about 54.20, the 12-period RSI about 53.33, and the 24-period RSI about 51.37. All three lines are above 50, indicating a mild bullish market condition. Notably, RSI previously rebounded strongly from the oversold zone (around 21) to near 56, which suggests bottom-fishing capital has strong willingness to enter.

In the KDJ indicator, the K value is about 45.37, D about 49.94, and J about 36.23. The three lines are converging downward, implying some short-term adjustment pressure. Meanwhile, the ATR indicator has fallen from 20.72 to 18.72, meaning volatility has been continuously tightening—this often precedes a directional breakout.

3. Market Sentiment Analysis

Ethereum’s current market sentiment is relatively complex. On the positive side, Vitalik Buterin recently stated clearly that the Hegotá upgrade in 2027 will be Ethereum’s last regular hard fork; after that, the development focus will shift toward recursive STARK proofs and quantum-safe cryptography. This statement provides a clear long-term vision for Ethereum’s technical roadmap, positioning Ethereum as a computing platform for the encrypted world—integrating blockchain, zero-knowledge proofs, and decentralized off-chain components. This grand narrative offers strong confidence support for long-term holders.

On the risk side, the on-chain selling pressure triggered by Bitget’s $387.5 million hacker incident is still being worked through. The attacker swapped the stolen ETH through decentralized protocols such as THORChain into BTC, bringing persistent sell pressure to the Ethereum network. Yet despite this pressure, Ethereum’s price has stayed above $2,600, indicating the market’s ability to absorb supply remains relatively sufficient.

In addition, tokenized stocks’ trading volume on the Base chain has surpassed $1 billion. Seven tokenized U.S. stocks have been listed on Aave V4 as collateral, and Ethereum’s DeFi infrastructure continues to expand. The upgrade of Chainlink CCIP 2.0 provides enterprise-level customizable capabilities for cross-chain security, further strengthening Ethereum’s core position in decentralized finance.

On the macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields and heightened geopolitical tension put pressure on the overall crypto market. However, Ethereum has shown stronger resilience relative to Bitcoin; with continued institutional inflows supporting it, the ETH/BTC ratio has the potential to stabilize and rebound.

Overall, Ethereum is in a short-term sideways consolidation phase. The bullish MACD signals and mildly bullish RSI condition provide a technical foundation for a future breakout. Investors are advised to watch the Bollinger Band lower support at $2,637 and the upper resistance at $2,710, and to patiently wait for the direction to be chosen.

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