$FIL When I wrote last time, it was 0.716 and I said it was bearish. Now itโs 0.7733โup 8%. Then I got slapped in the face. Admit it and follow the trend.
**I. Candlestick Review**
The last 6 consecutive 4h candles were broken down one by one:
First candle: 0.7428โ0.7376โ0.7464โ0.7461, volume 8.15 million FIL. Tight-range consolidation, amplitude 880 points.
Second candle: 0.7461โ0.7444โ0.7600โ0.7494, volume 15.79 million FIL. Volume surged up to 0.76, amplitude 1560 points.
Third candle: 0.7495โ0.7480โ0.7600โ0.7578, volume 10.52 million FIL. Continued pushing upward, with volume holding steady.
Fourth candle: 0.7578โ0.7478โ0.7839โ0.7745, volume 20.07 million FIL. A huge breakout! It directly surged to 0.7839, amplitude 3610 points.
Fifth candle: 0.7745โ0.7676โ0.7816โ0.7692, volume 8.72 million FIL. After spiking higher, it pulled back and consolidated on reduced volume.
Sixth candle: 0.7692โ0.7676โ0.7806โ0.7733, volume 5.47 million FIL. Extremely low volume; volatility narrowed to 1300 points.
From the low of 0.7108 to the high of 0.7839: 8 consecutive 4h candles took 32 hours, rising 10.3%. The lows stepped up from 0.7108โ0.7258โ0.7306โ0.7310โ0.7376โ0.7444โ0.7478โ0.7676.
**II. Technical Indicators**
4h timeframe: EMA9 (0.7566) is above EMA21 (0.7511). Bullish alignment, spacing 0.0055. RSI14 is 63.63, neutral but slightly strong. ADX is 23.9; +DI 26.6 is above -DI 16.3. Trend is moderate, bullish dominance.
**III. Capital Flows**
24h trading value: $55.42 million; trading volume: 73.05 million FIL. Funding rate 0.01%, normal.
**IV. Sentiment**
Fear & Greed Index: 50, neutral. FIL was pulled from 0.716 all the way to 0.7839, but community discussion hasnโt been very lively. Funding rate is normal, indicating thereโs no leveraged squeeze.
On X, FIL discussions are concentrated around the Filecoin storage track and the AI + storage narrative. No KOLs are calling trades.
**V. News/Information**
Filecoin, as a leading decentralized storage project, continues with the AI + storage narrative. No sudden major news; price action is driven by technicals.
Whale activity: the 0.7108โ0.7258 range was quickly lifted, suggesting buy support at the bottom. After making a new high at 0.7839, it consolidated on lower volume; the chips are locked in.
**Support & Resistance**
- Support 1: 0.7676 (recent low)
- Support 2: 0.7566 (4h EMA9)
- Support 3: 0.7511 (4h EMA21)
- Resistance 1: 0.7839 (previous high)
- Resistance 2: 0.8000 (psychological round number)
**Niniโs Plan**
Current price: 0.7733.
Bias: slightly bullish.
Reason: higher lows forming consecutively, EMA bullish alignment, ADX 23.9 with bullish control. Last time I got slappedโthis time I follow the trend.
Long: enter on a pullback in the 0.7550โ0.7580 zone (near the 4h EMA9). Stop loss: 0.7480 (breaks below the recent low). Targets: 0.7839 and 0.8000. Risk-reward about 1:2.
If it breaks above 0.7839, you can chase 0.7850โ0.7900, stop loss 0.7750, targets 0.8000 and 0.8200. Risk-reward about 1:1.3.
If above 0.7839 thereโs a breakout with strong volume and a long upper wick, it may return toward 0.7500. Only use as risk-control reference.
**My View**
Iโm slightly bullish. ADX 23.9 indicates a moderate trend. Higher lows are forming, and thereโs a volume-backed breakout. After last timeโs slap, I learned my lessonโIโll follow the trend. Once it reaches the 0.7839โ0.8000 range, Iโll watch the volume.
When the trend is clear, follow itโdonโt guess the top.
#FIL #Filecoin #ๅญๅจ่ต้ #spot long