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McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) shares fell 4.81% on September 23 during the company’s Investor Day as management detailed its McDonald’s > NEXT strategy, including roughly $8.5 billion in franchisee partnering support through 2036.
The company also outlined separate payback expectations for McDonald’s and its franchisees under the Restaurant > NEXT program. Chief Financial Officer Ian Borden said McDonald’s expects an approximately five-to-six-year payback on its holistic Restaurant > NEXT investments, according to a same-day transcript of the event. Management said that period is consistent with previous significant growth initiatives.
For franchisees, the expected payback is shorter. McDonald’s said franchisees are expected to achieve an approximately four-year payback on their holistic Restaurant > NEXT investment after company partnering support, according to the company’s SEC-filed Investor Day release. The two estimates therefore apply to different sides of the investment: roughly four years for franchisees after McDonald’s support and approximately five to six years for McDonald’s own investment.
McDonald’s closed at $238.32, down $12.03, after trading between $234.03 and $250.32. Volume reached approximately 16.33 million shares, compared with about 4.96 million on September 22 and 5.88 million on September 21.
The following day, at least six firms lowered their McDonald’s price targets while maintaining their existing ratings.
McDonald’s Plans $8.5 Billion of NEXT Partnering Support
McDonald’s said it expects to provide approximately $8.5 billion of Restaurant > NEXT partnering support through 2036, including about $5 billion through 2030.
The support will include rent relief and capital assistance intended to accelerate restaurant modernization, technology deployment, and operational improvements across the system.
For a traditional U.S. drive-thru restaurant, the full incremental Restaurant > NEXT investment is expected to total roughly $800,000, according to the Investor Day transcript. That spending is in addition to a standard required lobby remodel, which management estimated at approximately $400,000 to $450,000.
Management said franchisees are responsible for funding the standard lobby remodel under their franchise agreements, while McDonald’s will partner on a portion of the incremental Restaurant > NEXT investment. The level of company support will vary by market.
During the question-and-answer session, management said the $8.5 billion partnering commitment represents a cash figure. The related accounting expense is expected to be amortized over the remaining terms of applicable franchise agreements, which Borden said average roughly 10 years.
Restaurant > NEXT Targets 250 Basis Points of Efficiency Gains
McDonald’s said Restaurant > NEXT is expected to generate approximately 250 basis points of gross restaurant-level efficiency gains.
The company estimates those efficiencies could generate roughly $100,000 in incremental annual cash flow for the average U.S. restaurant, much of which is expected to flow to the restaurant’s bottom line over time.
At the company level, McDonald’s is targeting a low-to-mid-50% adjusted operating margin by 2030 and free-cash-flow conversion in the mid-to-high-80% range.
On capital spending, the company expects approximately $3 billion in annual baseline capital expenditures from 2027 through 2030, along with about $1.5 billion to $2 billion in cumulative capital partnering support during that period.
Separately, management said returns on new McDonald’s restaurants are expected to be in the high-teens percentage range over a typical 20-year period.
McDonald’s Expects Slightly Negative U.S. Comparable Sales for Q3
McDonald’s also expects a challenging demand environment as elevated inflation continues to weigh on industry traffic.
Chief Executive Chris Kempczinski said McDonald’s expects industry traffic growth in its wholly owned markets to remain flat while inflation remains elevated.
During the Investor Day Q&A, Borden said the U.S. business was slightly negative in July and August, while September was expected to be positive. Despite that expected improvement, he said U.S. comparable sales were expected to be slightly negative for the third quarter because of the slower start.
In the second quarter, McDonald’s U.S. comparable sales increased 0.8%. The company’s quarterly filing attributed the increase to higher average checks and a favorable product mix, partially offset by a decline in comparable guest counts.
McDonald’s has not yet announced a date for its third-quarter earnings release.
McDonald’s Shares Underperformed Major Indexes on September 23
The broader U.S. equity market also declined on September 23, although the major indexes posted smaller losses than McDonald’s.
The S&P 500 fell about 0.75%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped roughly 1.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined about 0.68%.
Restaurant stocks were mixed during the session. Wendy’s fell about 1.2%, while Yum! Brands gained roughly 0.7%.
A tokenized product tracking McDonald’s stock also declined. McDonald’s xStock (MCDX), a third-party tokenized tracker certificate issued by Backed Assets (JE) Limited, was trading at $244.65, down 4.6% over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.
CoinMarketCap showed approximately 9,100 MCDX tokens in circulation and a market capitalization of about $2.22 million. MCDX is distinct from McDonald’s NYSE-listed MCD common stock and is not issued by McDonald’s Corporation. Backed identifies McDonald’s Corporation as the issuer of the underlying MCD security, while Backed Assets (JE) Limited is the issuer of MCDX.
Analysts Cut McDonald’s Price Targets Following Investor Day
On September 24, at least six firms lowered their McDonald’s price targets following Investor Day while maintaining their existing ratings.
JPMorgan cut its target to $260 from $280 and maintained an Overweight rating. Citigroup lowered its target to $305 from $310 while maintaining Buy, and Gordon Haskett reduced its target to $285 from $315 while keeping its Buy rating.
TD Cowen lowered its target to $270 from $282 and maintained Hold. Evercore ISI cut its target to $300 from $320 while maintaining Outperform, while BMO Capital reduced its target to $310 from $335 and kept its Outperform rating.
TD Cowen cited uncertainty around the recovery timeline and visibility into earnings growth during the 2027-to-2030 period.
#CryptonewswithJack

Bitcoin commentator Quinten Francois recently argued that just a few strong trading days can make up most of BTC’s gains in a month.
Francois shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s monthly returns and what those returns would look like if the four best-performing days were removed. His point is that trying to perfectly time when to buy and sell Bitcoin can be risky.
Recent Examples
In August 2026, Bitcoin gained 24.9% for the month. But without its four best days, the gain would have been only 0.5%. In November 2024, Bitcoin gained 37.1%. Removing the four strongest days reduced the gain to 4%.
Earlier Examples
The difference was even bigger during some previous Bitcoin rallies:
March 2023: Bitcoin gained 23.2%, but fell 8.3% when the four best days were removed.February 2021: Bitcoin gained 36.8%, but returned -5.2% without those four days.April 2020: Bitcoin gained 34.5%, compared with -1.9% after removing the four strongest days.May 2019: Bitcoin gained 62.5%, while the return was 2.6% without the four best days.December 2017: Bitcoin gained 39.3%, but the return dropped to -22.6% after removing those days.
The examples show that a small number of very strong trading days can have a major impact on Bitcoin’s overall monthly performance.
X User Questions the Interpretation
The figures drew criticism from X user @b0tmkr, who said the analysis does not tell the full story because it only removes Bitcoin’s best-performing days. The user argued that removing only positive outliers can give a misleading picture of Bitcoin’s returns.
The criticism is mainly about the method used. The chart looks at what happens when investors miss Bitcoin’s four best days. It does not consider what would happen if they also missed the market’s worst days.
Francois responded that his main point was simply that a large share of Bitcoin’s gains can happen in just a few days. He said this is why investors who stay out of the market could miss some of its biggest moves.
Time in the Market vs. Timing the Market
This idea is similar to the common investment saying: “Time in the market beats timing the market.”
Investors who try to avoid market drops have to make two decisions correctly: when to sell and when to buy again. If they miss a strong recovery, their returns can suffer.
A Bank of Singapore analysis published in February 2025 also found that missing a small number of the market’s strongest periods can significantly reduce long-term returns. This shows how difficult it can be to predict short-term market moves.
Bitcoin’s August performance is a good example. Someone who was out of the market during Bitcoin’s four strongest days would have captured only a small part of the month’s total gain.
Bitcoin Reaches $87,300
Bitcoin rose to $87,300 on Tuesday, its highest level since January. The rally has renewed attention on the crypto market as many now believe the bull market is resuming.
Bitcoin was trading around $85,500 at the time of writing, up 4.4% over the past 24 hours and 11% over the past week. Now, its year-to-date loss has narrowed to about 2.3%, although it is still down around 23% over the past year.
The latest move also adds to Bitcoin’s recovery from its recent low. In particular, Bitcoin has gained about 51% from its low roughly two months earlier.
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🚨 Trump Has $1.4B+ in Crypto — And Now the U.S. Is Fighting Over Crypto Regulation 🇺🇸
President Donald Trump has reportedly built a crypto fortune worth more than $1.4 billion, and now his administration is pushing Congress to establish a clearer regulatory framework for the U.S. digital-asset industry.
At the center of the debate is the CLARITY Act, a major crypto market-structure bill designed to clarify how digital assets are regulated and which agencies should oversee different parts of the market.
But there’s a major problem 👀
Democrats are demanding stronger ethics and conflict-of-interest protections. Their argument is simple: how can lawmakers create rules for an industry in which the president and his business interests have such significant financial exposure?
Meanwhile, Republicans want to move the legislation forward, arguing that clearer rules could provide more certainty for crypto investors, exchanges, startups, and entrepreneurs operating in the U.S.
⏳ Now the pressure is increasing.
Republicans want the bill passed.
Democrats want stronger safeguards.
The crypto industry is waiting for regulatory clarity.
If both sides manage to reach a compromise, the CLARITY Act could become one of the most significant pieces of crypto legislation in U.S. history, potentially reshaping how the industry operates for years to come.
🔥 But the big question remains:
Will Congress pass CLARITY — or will Trump’s massive crypto interests become the biggest political obstacle standing in its way?
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