๐จ USDT is cheaper than USD in Vietnam: Are liquidity providers fleeing?
I look at these 2 data points and see something unusual:
๐บ๐ธ USD/VND: 26,140ฤ
๐ช USDT P2P: only about 25,789โ25,803ฤ
โ USDT is trading about 1.3% lower than the USD exchange rate.
This doesnโt mean USDT has lost its peg.
The more important question is: Who is agreeing to sell USDT at such a discount?
If this is just short-term supplyโdemand fluctuation, then thereโs nothing to worry about.
But if the discount keeps widening, thereโs a hypothesis worth watching:
> Market makers, OTC desks, and large liquidity providers are reducing their USDT/VND inventories before the crypto-asset market enters a tighter regulatory phase.
Vietnam already has Resolution 05/2025 piloting the crypto-asset market; this framework places trading activities and service provision into a licensing system, with AML and compliance requirements.
Even more notably, Decree 284/2026/Nฤ-CP on administrative penalties for violations in the crypto-asset field will take effect from 1/9/2026.
And we are currently at 10/8 โ only about 3 weeks left.
I havenโt concluded that โwhales are fleeing.โ The current data isnโt enough to prove it.
But if over the coming days:
USDT P2P continues trading at a discount โ selling liquidity increases โ spread widens โ the USDT price doesnโt bounce back close to USD/VND,
then I would consider this a very noteworthy signal about fund flows and the behavior of liquidity providers ahead of the new regulations taking effect.
Maybe this isnโt weak USDT.
Maybe sellers are trying to get out of VND/USDT as fast as possible. ๐
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