YANG_ETH

ALTSEASON 2020 🤝 2024
PUMP IN NOVEMBER FOLLOWED
BY A DECEMBER DUMP
BITCOIN DOMINANCE PUMPS BUT
GOT REJECTED FROM ITS UPTREND
RESISTANCE
BTC DOMINANCE REVERSAL
FOLLOWED BY MEGA ALTSEASON
ALTSEASON IS COMING IN Q1 2025

Bitcoin Dominance has topped.

Every single cycle Dominance has topped when TOTAL enters Price Discovery.

There have been MANY naysayers on this, but the data doesn't lie.

I posted this as part of a thread when Dominance was at 66%, and I'm just following up now with a easier to see chart.

It's hard to make out the first cycle when it did this because the chart barely shows the price... but its correct.

We are on our way to the final parabolic move and the closing of this cycle.

Again, the only thing you need to ensure you do now is exit the market... at some point.

Right now its still hard to see it, but when we are reaching the end, no one will be taking profits.

That will be one of the keys signs to know its over... not when everyone is still calling top.

But first, Dominance capitulation, TOTAL to the moon.

#Bitcoiners are attacking #Silver daily right now. The jealousy is obvious.
They’re actively trying to convince their followers not to buy silver stocks. It’s both funny and shortsighted. Silver equities are shaping up to be one of the absolute best trades for the foreseeable future.
This window of opportunity only lasts a few more years. Take advantage of it while it exists.
For your own good, unfollow #Bitcoin “gurus”. Their messaging is coordinated, self-serving, and designed to fill your head with nonsense, not to help you build real wealth.
Bitcoin was the trade of the decade, but at over +800,000% the easy money is gone. Returns diminish over time, and at these levels the bubble no longer offers life-changing gains. That era is over. That’s just reality.
The era of life-changing gains in silver stocks is only beginning. But just like Bitcoin, it won’t last forever. Everything moves in cycles, and this is shaping up to be a commodity cycle.
Play it. Enjoy it. Embrace it.
Don’t let ego, noise, or low-IQ clowns keep you out of the trade of the decade.

DO NOT BUY A HOUSE THIS YEAR, UNLESS YOU’RE A BILLIONAIRE!
I’ve spent 22 years in macro.
I’ve seen every cycle from the 2008 crash to the 2020 blow-off top.
Look at this chart.
2006 bubble peak was about 266.
If you think the current market is safe, you’re missing the structural freeze.
Buying in 2026 is a TRAP, here’s why:
Redfin data shows a massive imbalance: 36.8% more sellers than buyers. Demand is sitting at the lowest levels since the 2020 lockdown.
This isn't a normal dip, it’s a total loss of market velocity.
Most owners are locked into 3% paper. With the 30-year fixed suffocating at ~6.5%, the "cost to move" is prohibitive.
We have zero price discovery because nobody can afford to move. You’re buying an illiquid asset at a sticker price that hasn't been tested by real volume.
Buying now means locking in a brutal monthly payment on an asset with capped upside.
If you’re levered 5:1 on a house that stays flat while you pay 6.5% interest, you aren't building equity, YOU’RE BLEEDING CAPITAL.
THE MACRO PLAY:
Wait for the fatigue phase in late 2026/2027.
That’s when the "wait it out" crowd hits life catalysts (divorce, relocation, retirement) and is forced to sell into a cooling economy.
That’s when the affordability reset actually happens.
If you must buy, do it like a shark:
– Stress-test your income for a 20% haircut.
– Keep your LTV healthy (avoid negative equity).
– Only buy if you can hold through a flat decade.
The math doesn't have emotions. Don't let your dream home become a zombie asset.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

$BTC macro view
Looking at both the 3D and the weekly, it’s obvious why the market bounced exactly where it did. That zone was meant to react, and it reacted perfectly. But a bounce doesn’t mean the trend is back this is just a technical rebound after an extreme move, nothing more. It’s the kind of move you always get when panic hits too hard and the market needs to rebalance.
The 3D isn’t showing any real strength yet. It’s stuck in a compressed structure, moving between support and resistance without intention. As long as we remain below 96–99k, there’s no real construction happening just a messy, choppy range that exists to clean liquidity above and below. This is the phase where low timeframes look “active,” but the market isn’t choosing a direction at all.
The weekly is the timeframe that actually matters. The reaction is fine, but there’s nothing here that suggests a clean reversal. That weekly low is the line that cannot be lost: if it breaks, the market naturally moves toward 70–66k, which are the levels where a real macro base would make sense to build again. As long as the weekly low holds, we’re simply in an equilibrium phase where price is breathing, recovering, and trying to decide where to go next.
OBV matches this perfectly. There’s no accumulation, no clear divergence, no real signal of a confirmed bottom. When volume and price action tell the same story in this case, indecision it means the market is sitting in the middle, not trending. And it’s exactly here that the crowd gets fooled, calling bottom twenty times, while anyone reading market structure objectively stays patient and waits for confirmation.
In short, this is one of those in-between moments: not a top, not a bottom, just a transitional zone where the market cleans, traps, and prepares its next move. The 96–99k resistance tells you if strength comes back; the weekly low tells you if we need to look much lower. Everything else is just noise.

Cartels have liquidated almost every Bitcoin long. There's literally no liquidity cluster below at this moment.
From a volume and liquidation perspective, this looks like a final capitulation.
Zoom out and you can barely see the recent gold outperformance over BTC...
Remember this is a LOG chart so the moves look less dramatic (I know X loves drama however).
From the 2022 peak gold is down -47% vs BTC and from the 2019 peak, gold is down -85% versus BTC.
Admittedly, there is a lot going on with this chart.
But if you look carefully at it, you'll see that #Bitcoin prints the same pattern each post-halving year.
Up in July-Aug
Down in Sep
Up into the market cycle top in Q4
Bear Market

🚨 GRAYSCALE FADES BITCOIN 4-YEAR CYCLE
In a new report, Grayscale argues the 4-year cycle may no longer apply due to:
• No parabolic bull market overshoot
• ETPs and DATs reshaping market structure
• A structurally bullish macro backdrop
Grayscale expects new highs in 2026 🚀

Bitcoin Dominance dropped hard today
The channel is now broken
Alts are holding strong & gaining momentum slowly. I think once BTC bounces back up, Altcoins will pump hard and outperform Btc.

When people see crypto volumes staying high, they ask:
“Why is price slow if interest is still here?”
It’s rotation, mate.
Capital doesn’t leave crypto overnight.
It moves, waits, and repositions.
That’s what this chart shows.
Many traders focus only on price action and miss the bigger signal: liquidity.
Volume is where commitment lives.
While prices chopped through 2025, monthly exchange volume remained historically elevated. That tells you participants stayed active they just became selective.
Think of crypto like a power-law market.
A small number of periods drive most gains.
The rest are accumulation, rotation, and positioning phases.
Volume expansion without vertical price moves usually means:
▪️ Capital is entering
▪️ Risk is being redistributed
▪️ The next trend is being prepared
This is how markets breathe.
➭ 𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗲: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗮𝘆𝘀
Looking at 2025 → early 2026:
▪️ Liquidity never collapsed
Despite corrections, activity stayed strong no mass exit.
▪️ Binance maintained dominance
Deep liquidity still attracts serious traders.
▪️ “Other exchanges” gained share
Capital diversified across platforms → healthier market structure.
▪️ Q3–Q4 volume expansion matters
Sustained participation, not speculative spikes.
This isn’t a dead market.
It’s a patient one.
➭ 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀
Price reacts.
Volume positions.
High volume during sideways markets often precedes:
▪️ Trend continuation
▪️ Sector rotation
▪️ Liquidity-driven breakouts
Markets don’t explode from silence.
They explode from built pressure.
➭ 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗜 𝗨𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
I don’t trade noise.
I track:
▪️ Where volume concentrates
▪️ Which exchanges gain relevance
▪️ Spot activity vs leverage
▪️ When participation confirms structure
That’s how you stay early without guessing tops or bottoms.
✍️ 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻
High volume in quiet markets isn’t weakness.
It’s preparation.
Crypto rewards those who read flows, not feelings.
This chart isn’t about the past
it’s about what’s being built underneath price.

A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.
 
This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.
 
So far, it’s been pretty bang on.
 
Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time.
No, it won’t be perfect, but assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.
 
As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.
 
In that world, the 4-year cycle is dead.
 
Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle, as outlined in our work at GMI, which post-COVID was pushed out by one year.
In our view, the 4-year cycle is now officially broken because the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.
And the bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth.
Another thing to keep in mind is that bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.
Finally, let me repeat what I said when I first posted this chart last month.
 
If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along...