张烁峰Ain

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#加密市场观察

Long-time followers may remember the two Gann timing lows we discussed in last week's video. The first was in early October. In the early hours of October 9, $BTC made a low at 80393, followed by a V-shaped rebound ✅

Has the pullback ended? What should we look for next?

The rise from 74967 to 87395 lasted 6 days, while the pullback from 87395 to 80393 took 16 days. If the move from 87395 to 80393 is a daily-level pullback, then price must not fall below 80393 again, and it must break above 86000 and hold there.

If price fails to make a high above 87395 or falls below 80393 again, either would indicate that the move starting from 87395 is a weekly-level pullback. In that scenario, the October 9 low identified by Gann timing is of a smaller degree, and the move from that low is a rebound. Once the rebound ends, the decline will continue into early November.

If the move starting from 87395 is a weekly-level pullback, the structure can be broken down as follows: 87395–80393 is the first decline, at the daily level. The rise from 80393 is a rebound against that decline (shown in the green box in the chart). Once the rebound ends, there will be another decline of the same degree as the move from 87395 to 80393. After the entire weekly-level pullback reaches its endpoint, BTC will begin its next weekly uptrend, which will be much stronger than the move from 57800 to 87395.

We discussed this outlook in Sunday's video. As time passes, this possibility is becoming more likely. Regardless, once the pullback that began at 87395 ends, the price will continue to rise.

We do our best to provide objective analysis of BTC's price action and publish an update every day. I share my personal views, real-time market analysis, and trading strategies in Panda's Den ➡️

Long-time followers know that we got into MSTR on August 18. The next day, August 19, we made another post openly calling for a bullish move $MSTR . Then we saw MSTR rise by 86%+.

Has MSTR’s rally ended? What should we expect next?

As shown in the chart, the black segment is an advance on the weekly timeframe. The move from 171.19 is a correction of the same degree. If the price does not fall below 147.37 again, the decline is over; the move from 171.19 to 147.37 represents all or part of the decline.

If MSTR cannot break above and hold 165.2 going forward, then the move from 147.37 is a rebound against the decline from 171.19 to 147.37. Under this scenario, the 171.19–147.37 move is the first part of the decline. Once the rebound against it ends, another decline of the same degree as the 171.19–147.64 move will follow. After the full weekly correction is complete, there should be an advance of the same degree as the black segment, and the next rally may be even more powerful.

Since we began sharing updates on MSTR, history has repeatedly shown that our assessment of its degree and structural breakdown has been prescient. We will continue to provide technical analysis and fundamental insights on MSTR, so stay tuned if you’re interested.

As early as March 1, 2026, I said that the major uptrend in #黄金 had come to an end, and that a monthly-level correction would follow. I also shared the projected move shown in Chart 1. After that, $XAU fell from 5419 to 3942 as expected;

On July 30, 2026, I stated clearly that the first wave of the weekly-level decline had ended, and that a weekly rebound was about to begin. Gold subsequently rose from 3942 to 4697.

What’s the outlook now? Could the move from 3942 to 4697 be just one part of the rebound, with another leg still to come?

In last Sunday’s video, we said that if another rebound of the same degree as the move from 3942 to 4697 were still to come, then the move from 4697 would be a correction. If it is a correction, it shouldn’t fall below the 4015–4030 range. This week, we saw gold find support at 4066, above 4030, and make a V-shaped reversal—a positive sign.

The next level to watch above is 4228. A break above it would suggest that the correction may have ended at 4066. The 0.382 Fibonacci level of the 4697–4066 move is 4308. A break above and a sustained move above 4308 would confirm that the correction has ended. Under this scenario, the rise from 4066 would be of the same degree as the move from 3942 to 4697—a daily-level move.

On the higher time frame, gold is still in a correction, and this correction is at the monthly level. I continue to follow gold not only to look for swing-trading opportunities, but also, more importantly, to stay attuned to changes in its price action. This helps improve trading skills.

ETH continues 📉, another comfortable swing trade

Currently, ETH has entered our observation range. We will follow up tomorrow based on how the daily candle closes.

Real-time market analysis and trading strategies →

Has anyone noticed that after every smooth rise in $BTC , it is always followed by a complicated correction? The smoother the rise, the more complicated the correction tends to be.

During an uptrend, chips are not exchanged sufficiently, and profit-taking positions, missed-entry positions, and bullish-bearish disagreements pile up along the way, leading to this phenomenon. In the end, it often takes a longer period of consolidation to complete the turnover and restore liquidity balance.

The internal structure of a complex correction is often hard to clearly define, but fortunately we can always manage to do it, thanks to our day-by-day continuous tracking of BTC price action:

If the move starting from 87395 is a daily-level pullback, then it is targeting the rise in the red segment shown in the chart. At present, the first wave of four-hour-level decline and the corresponding same-level rebound have both been completed. Next, the focus is on the strength of the decline starting from 86677 and whether the Gann angle line 2/1 (79200-79800) can provide support. This is the key to judging whether the pullback starting from 87395 will expand from the daily level to the weekly level.

As early as June, I said that BTC's phase low was likely to appear between late June and early July. BTC then fell to 57800 on July 1 and reversed V-shaped.

At that time, the whole internet was shouting about a drop below 50,000, even 40,000, while I kept emphasizing that this wave of gains would not end in the short term because it was a weekly-level trend.

A clear structural division and accurate level judgment gave me the confidence to remain bullish throughout Q3. It also gave me the determination on September 24 to decisively close my crypto futures long positions and later enter ETH short positions.

The market can be complicated, but our thinking cannot be chaotic. The longer a complex correction lasts, the smoother the subsequent trend move is likely to be. These two are inversely related, and only by understanding this can we have the patience to deal with the current market.

By continuously tracking the market every day, we are preparing in advance for the next trend after the correction ends. By the time others are still asking, 'Can we still get on board now?' the panda friends are already sitting in the car enjoying the scenery.
#BTC走势分析

Yesterday afternoon, I discussed this with friends in the group and pointed out that the 4-hour chart for $BTC might be forming a triangle. This morning’s decline confirmed that assessment was correct. Today, let’s take another look at BTC’s lower-timeframe structure:

If the move from 87395 is a daily-level correction, then it is correcting the rally in the red section of Figure 2. The internal structure of this daily-level correction is as follows:

The decline from 87395 to 82563 was the first wave down, and the move from 82563 was a rebound against it. Last night’s 86677 was the rebound’s endpoint. The decline from 86677 is therefore on the same scale as the 87395–82563 decline: a 4-hour-level move.

The blue 2/1 Gann angle line below (79200–79800) is the dividing line. As long as price does not break below this level, once the endpoint of the decline from 86677 is found, the entire daily-level correction will be over, and the subsequent rally will be on the same scale as the red section.

If price breaks below the 2/1 Gann angle line and fails to reclaim it, the decline from 87395 will expand into a weekly-level correction of the entire rally from 57800.

In summary, the move from 87395 is currently either a daily-level correction or a weekly-level correction. The trend itself is clear.

There is a lot of disagreement right now about the rally from 57800 to 87395, and that’s a good thing. Disagreement creates opportunity; when there is none, a trend move is often nearing its end.

Ever since I first said on September 14, 2025, that BTC’s uptrend was about to end and that the ensuing bear market would last until after the third or fourth quarter of 2026, I have consistently taken the opposite side from the majority at every key turning point: 80600, 97900, 60000, 57800... Yet history has proven time and again that I was right. Will this time be the exception? I don’t think so.

As shown in Figure 1, $ETH tested the 2711–2758 resistance zone several times but failed to break through. So, in our October 4 video, we said that ETH was still in a pullback that began at 2807. This was also one of the reasons we opened this short position, as shown in Figures 2–3.

What’s next? Does ETH still have a chance?

For now, we view the decline from 2807 as a pullback rather than a new downtrend. The 2478–2500 area below is key support. Until ETH breaks below this zone, the decline from 2807 should be viewed as a pullback from the rise marked in red on the chart. Once the pullback ends, the next daily-scale uptrend should begin.

If ETH breaks below 2478–2500 and fails to reclaim it, the decline from 2807 may develop into a pullback from the entire rise marked in black. This would be a weekly-scale pullback; once it finds a bottom, the next weekly-scale uptrend should begin.

As early as June 5, we suggested that ETH was likely to fall to around 1500.
After ETH bottomed at 1505 and rebounded sharply, we also noted that 1505 was likely a short-term low.

During these 107 days, as most people shifted from “waiting for a lower low” to “wondering whether there will even be a lower low,” ETH gained more than 86% in total. Since we clearly identified the bullish trend in early June, our trades have gone smoothly all the way. That’s the importance of following the trend.

Every trend move starts with a 4-hour candle, or even a 1-hour candle. That’s why continuously tracking price action is so important for staying in sync with the market.

Since 2025, I’ve followed the crypto market almost every day. Your support motivates me to keep sharing updates. If my daily posts have been helpful to you, feel free to leave a 💗. $ETH
#ETH走势分析

Starship completed its first orbital flight and deployed Starlink V3 satellites, while NASA added another $946 million crewed spaceflight contract. Meanwhile, Starlink users have grown to 12 million, and SPCX's second-quarter revenue nearly doubled!

As early as August 4, we said SPCX was about to begin a rally, at least a rebound from the entire decline that began at 225.61. SPCX subsequently rose from 104.85 to 158.12✅

In the September 27 video, we said that $SPCX was in a correction from 158.12, not a new decline, and that once the correction ended, it would continue rising to 170–180. This view has now been confirmed✅

The key level to watch below is 164.6. As long as it holds, the rally still has momentum. Above, keep a close eye on 179.49; whether SPCX can break through this level will directly determine how far this rally can go.

It has been 16 days since $BTC made a high of 87396. Is the move from 87396 a daily-level correction or a weekly-level correction? We may have an answer as soon as this week:

The lower observation point has moved up to 84000. As long as the price does not break below 84000 again, we can basically confirm that the entire correction was from 87396 to 82563, and that the move from 82563 is a daily-level advance.

If the move from 87396 is a daily-level decline, the correction should end this week and the price should continue upward. If it fails to break above the previous high this week and subsequently falls below 84000, the correction will continue. A break below the blue Gann angle line 2/1 would raise the possibility of the correction expanding to a larger degree. #BTC走势分析

Since we said that the 82300–74968 move was a correction of the 57800–82300 rally and had already ended, BTC has risen steadily from 74968 to 87396.
This is a standard daily-timeframe rally.

BTC is likely to end its more than ten days of sideways trading this week, so we should pay close attention to the following:

If BTC does not fall below 82563 again this week, or if a daily candle closes above 86360, we can assume that the 87396–82563 move was a daily-timeframe correction of the 74968–87396 rally and has ended. If the 87396–82563 move is confirmed as the entire correction, it would be a strong correction.
Under this scenario, the rally from 82563 is on the same timeframe as the 74968–87396 rally; both are daily-timeframe moves.

If BTC falls below 82563 again this week, but stays above the blue 2/1 Gann angle line—around 79780–80100—we will continue, for now, to view the decline from 87396 as a correction of the 74968–87396 rally. A further break below 82563 would make this a complex correction. Once its endpoint is found, the subsequent rally would also be on the daily timeframe.

If this is only a daily-timeframe correction, it will most likely end this week, as its duration is already close to the limit for a daily-timeframe correction. If it does not end this week, consider the possibility that the correction is expanding to a higher timeframe.

In mid-June, I noted that the interim low was likely to occur from late June to early July. BTC then fell to 57800 and staged a V-shaped rebound ✅

On August 21, I clearly stated that 79500 was not the end of the rally. BTC then continued higher, reaching 82500 ✅

On September 18, I pointed out that 82300–74968 was the entire correction. BTC continued higher afterward, reaching a high of 87396 ✅

We have been tracking BTC's market structure consistently since 2025, and we have flagged most key turning points in advance. If you're interested in BTC, don't forget to like and follow. Your support also motivates me to keep posting 💗#BTC走势分析 $BTC

After BTC broke through 86300, it once plunged to within less than 200 points of the previous high, but then suddenly violently pulled back. Why didn’t it break the previous high when it was just one step away? After the drop, why didn’t it also fall below the trading range?

At the end of May and early June, we suggested that the ETH downtrend would end around 1500. More than three months have passed. Since 1505, ETH’s highest gain has reached 86%. From 2807 onward, is what we’re seeing just a correction within the uptrend, or has a larger-scale correction already begun? Where should we look to enter next?

U.S. Treasury yields have been surging continuously, and gold—an asset that doesn’t pay interest—has clearly come under pressure. When will a smooth, flowing market finally arrive?

Also, we’ve found that the U.S. stock market may already be at the starting point of a new round of trend.

In tomorrow’s video, I’ll go through $BTC $ETH gold and the entire U.S. stock market. Could there be good trading opportunities in October? I think there will be.

As early as September 20, 2025, I recommended NVDA to everyone. A year later, Nvidia is now at 237+.

In a tweet dated September 10, 2026, it was said that Nvidia’s adjustment would end above 205, and then it would quickly break 236.54; afterward, Nvidia fell to 208.93V ✅

To align knowledge with action—in line with that—on September 25 we entered a long position from the right side. Nvidia’s走势 since September 10 has perfectly matched expectations. So how should we look at what comes next?

As shown in Figure 1, at a smaller level, the red segment is an upswing at the daily-chart level, while the blue segment is a pullback against it. In this path, the move starting from 208.93 is at least an upswing of the same level as the red segment. The observation point is at 226.6—if it can hold above that level, the uptrend still has momentum.

The trend outlook has never changed since 2025: bullish in the long run—hold long term.

Why is it more likely that the BTC started from 87395 to move downward is an adjustment rather than a brand-new decline? Understanding this is very important for us to handle subsequent BTC trading:

As shown in Figure 1, after BTC broke through the blue Gann 2/1 angle line in 2018, it then went through a round of adjustments targeting the rise from 3156 to 13970. After the adjustment ended, BTC entered a highly explosive uptrend during the 2020–2021 bull market;

Looking at Figure 2, in 2023 BTC again broke through the 2/1 level, and then likewise started running an adjustment targeting the rise from 15476 to 31804. After the adjustment ended at 24901, BTC rallied all the way to 73777;

On September 21, 2026, BTC broke through 2/1 for the third time. After the breakout, the market entered another adjustment phase.

If this time still follows the structure of the first two rounds, what will happen after the adjustment ends?

History won’t simply repeat itself, but the structure of each BTC bull-bear cycle is always surprisingly similar.

Careful friends will notice that after BTC broke through 2/1 in 2018, the adjustment lasted 261 days, with a maximum drawdown of 72.93%. In the second round, this time shortened to 60 days, and the maximum drawdown dropped to 21.71%. Why did the adjustment time keep getting shorter and the drawdown also keep getting smaller?

The main reason is that BTC’s size and liquidity are continuously expanding, and the participation of institutions and global capital has been increasing as well. Therefore, that kind of huge volatility in the early days will become harder and harder to occur.

Also, as the market matures and price discovery efficiency improves, adjustment amplitudes often converge, and the pace becomes faster too—something similar to the development of the gold market.

If this decline starting from 87395 is still merely a pullback after the 2/1 breakout, then this adjustment is the last chance to get on board for friends who missed the move that started from 57800. Recent market action has indeed been a bit dull, but I will continue to track BTC’s行情. Everyone, stay tuned. Real-time market analysis and trading strategies will also be shared in the 🐼 group.

On smaller timeframes as shown in Figure 4, if the pullback starting from 87395 is a minor pullback within the red segment in Figure 4, then only after it breaks and holds above the right side of 86300 can we assume the adjustment has ended; otherwise, we should not assume the adjustment has ended yet.

The 2/1 below (79900–80150) is the key to distinguishing whether the adjustment is targeting the entire black segment or only the red segment. It’s important to note that the longer the horizontal consolidation time here lasts, the higher the probability that what starts running from 87395 is a pullback rather than a new decline. Adjustment period: $BTC

Am I possibly the first blogger to say that the BTC bear market has ended?

In the June posts and videos, I mentioned that BTC’s interim low would occur around the end of June to early July on the Gann timeline, with the endpoint at 58,000; then after that, BTC dropped to 57,800 on July 1 ✅

And also possibly the first blogger on the whole internet to say that BTC would start to pull back after 87,395?

Starting in mid-September, I repeatedly emphasized that a pullback is about to begin—at least a daily-chart-level pullback targeting the rise from 74,967 to 87,395. Then we saw that the pullback that began at 87,395 has already been ongoing for a week ✅

Maybe I’m still the earliest blogger to catch the adjustment endpoint:

In yesterday’s post, we said that BTC breaking above 86,380 would allow us to assume that the pullback of the red segment shown in the chart has already ended. Today, the high reached 85,650, then it pulled back—so we do not yet assume that the adjustment is over.

Going forward, if there are no highs above 85,650, then 82,593–85,650 will be considered the rebound against the decline from 87,395 to 82,593, and that rebound would already be finished. The support from the Gann angle line 2/1 below (79,800–80,100) needs special attention—this is the line that determines market strength versus weakness.

Time-wise, we need to watch early October and early November. After the pullback that began at 87,395 ends, BTC will continue to rise. The exact time when the adjustment ends will be followed up later based on the BTC structure across larger and smaller timeframes—everyone, please stay tuned. $BTC
#BTC走势分析

BTC has been running since 87395 on a callback. The Gann angle lines 2/1 are the strength/weakness watershed.

Since we proposed in our June videos that July 1 is a cyclical low point, BTC has risen 51.2% from 57800.

On September 24, we handled long positions on altcoin perpetual contracts and the high-cost spot buys that had chased longs earlier, and additionally opened shorts on BTC and ETH. We took profit on the shorts yesterday; the profit wasn’t large—so it’s more of a short-term swing.

The observation level below is still 2/1 (79900-80300). Whether this area can act as support directly determines if the decline that started at 87395 is a pullback only for the red segment or a full pullback of the entire black segment.

For the possible end time of the pullback, refer to early October / early November. At that time, judge whether the pullback has ended based on the specific structure.

I’ve said more than once that BTC’s trend is certain. However, as time passes, this view may be questioned by more and more people, and I won’t be surprised. Those who can capture the next wave that exceeds the rise from 57800-87395 are destined to be a minority—because the 80/20 rule will always apply.$BTC
#BTC走势分析

A week has passed, and the calls we made in our previous video are gradually coming to fruition:

In the Sept 20 video, we said that the adjustment for $BTC might already have ended at 74,968; subsequent tweets followed up on this view again—breaking 80,000 confirmed the adjustment was complete. Then we saw BTC break above 80,000 and peak at 87,396✅

As for the storage stocks represented by $SNDK : our view was that the rebound was not yet over, and afterward, both Sandisk, Micron, and Hynix all broke above the Sept 17 high✅

$SPCX also played out as expected: for now, the first wave of the rebound that started with 104 occurrences has ended, and it has begun entering a correction targeting this leg of the rally.

Next week we’ll move into October. Whether in the US stock market or crypto, both are at a crossroads:

How far can this round of BTC’s uptrend still go?

After the SPCX correction ends, how will the next segment of the market move?

The Nasdaq has already made a new high, while the S&P is still a bit off; will gold see another wave of upside comparable to the move in the 3942–4697 range?

In the new video tomorrow afternoon, I’ll follow up on all of the above—walking through from the bigger timeframe to the smaller ones—and share the latest trend assessments along with my ideas for what to do next.

Since the update in 2025, we’ve been continuously updating the market developments for Bitcoin, gold, and the US stock market. Our weekly video analysis is designed to help everyone understand which stage each asset is in and what to expect next. New friends, feel free to follow; and longtime friends, please like and save the video.

On Sept 27, see you then 🐼