张烁峰的剧本日记

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Let's not lose each other, okay? I'll accompany you on this road with Binance.

Recently, many people have told me, Old Zhang, I can see your thought process in action, but you're always just a bit short, either eating too little or just floating gains due to some fluctuations. So feel free to communicate more! Control the risks, give you direction, and build confidence in holding onto your positions!
#加密市场回调 #BNB创新高 #ETH巨鲸增持

The market is too boring, let's make a prediction:
94K is the highest point of this round of rebound, then it goes to 75K
then there will be an extraordinary rebound, going to 98K+
then the C wave will start to decline to 65K,
In the second half of 2026, there will be a super rebound to 110K+
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#BTC走势分析

Ethereum's 3000 threshold sees fierce battles between bulls and bears: will the southward trend continue or will there be a counterattack from the north?

The current price of Ethereum is 3019 (Beijing time 04:50). It was previously indicated that 'after the main force's attempt to break 3200 met strong resistance, there would not be a continuation of the attack in the short term, but rather a deep pullback,' and a suggestion to take profits at 3170 across the network was given—ultimately selling precisely at the peak and also positioning at the low of 2750, achieving a perfect closure of this northward wave segment, which can be regarded as a textbook-level grasp of rhythm. The current market is intensely focused around the 3000 threshold, making the directional choice critical.

From the daily K-line perspective, before the publication, the highest was 3192 and the lowest was 2978, having fallen below the EMA15 trend line support of 3036; the golden ratio 0.5 position above coincides with the EMA30 resistance level, forming a strong double pressure with significant effect. In terms of indicators, MACD has not increased in volume, bearish momentum is strengthening, and DIF and DEA are contracting at low levels; the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the upper band moving down to 3218, the lower band to 2735, and the middle band at 2976 precisely coinciding with the intraday low, providing effective short-term support. If the middle band is subsequently broken, the main force is likely to continue southward, further exploring the downside space.

The four-hour cycle signals are more focused on the 3000 threshold: this price level not only has obvious price support, but the EMA trend indicator also forms strong support here, becoming the core of the current struggle between bulls and bears. On the indicator level, MACD shows a reduced volume increase, with DIF and DEA forming a death cross at high levels, indicating a short-term advantage for the southward trend; the lower Bollinger Band at 2972 provides effective support and can serve as a key reference point: if broken, then increase positions southward; if support holds, a light position can be tried northward. The core entry point for conservative investors going north can still be locked at the effective low of 2750.

#ETH走势分析

The three black crows pattern of Bitcoin has formed. After the bearish trend is established, where are the targets below?

Bitcoin has risen from 85000 to 93000, exiting precisely; the second Bitcoin surged from 2750 to 3170, locking in profits—this operation can be described as extremely precise. The rhythm of highs and lows has switched perfectly. Currently, the high position is held in the southward segment, and the details of the subsequent exit will continue to be privately synchronized with partners following the real market.

The current Bitcoin price is 89200 (Beijing time 04:50). The recommendation to take profit at 93500 across the network should be verified again: the market has broken below the critical threshold of 90000, and the exit timing is textbook-level. The previous plan clearly stated, "Once the 90000 level is broken, follow the trend southward." Currently, a short-term position can be taken with a light load, while avoiding long holding. The core idea is still to wait for stabilization at lower levels before laying out a northern trend position.

On the daily K-line dimension, before the release, the highest was 92670, and the lowest was 87975. Although there is a possibility of a "door painting" pattern, the probability is low. After breaking below 90000, the low positions all represent opportunities for northern layout: the EMA indicator continues to contract, EMA15 is consolidating around 91000; MACD continues to expand upward, and the Bollinger Bands are synchronously narrowing, indicating a demand for a pullback to explore upwards. The previous K-line failed to hit the upper track of 95000 and fell back, while the lower track was compressed to 84000, with severe fluctuations in the range; do not blindly open positions.

The signal on the four-hour cycle is clearer: there is short-term support at 89000, but the EMA contraction continues, MACD is reducing volume while accumulating, and DIF and DEA have a dead cross at a high position and are expanding; the K-line has broken below the lower Bollinger Band at the 90000 level, combined with the short-term TD nine-reverse indicator being triggered and the lower Bollinger Band support failing, the four-hour level three black crows pattern has formed, and the bearish trend is established. In terms of strategy, the southward segment can continue to hold, while the northern trend position should wait for this adjustment to end before planning the layout.
#BTC走势分析

This wave of market activity isn't over yet... It seems we are about to welcome a beautiful red weekend. Don't think this trend can finish in just one day... Don't be too naive!

#BTC走势分析

Since ETH clearly turned bullish on November 22, it has reached a maximum increase of over 19%. It has started to pull back now; can it rise further?

As shown in Figure 1, the rise of ETH starting from 2716 has two possible scenarios represented in red and blue. The red level is smaller and is a rebound from a previous decline, while the blue level is larger and represents the daily level, targeting the entire decline that started from 4956.

I have repeatedly emphasized the importance of the key pivot point shown between 3120-3150. For this round of ETH's rise to expand to a daily level, it is crucial to remain above that range; otherwise, the first phase of the rise may end, and subsequent adjustments could evolve into a new decline (however, even if it follows the red scenario, the new decline would mean that after finding the bottom, there will be a daily level rebound, so it's not entirely a bad thing).

Pay attention to the recent Gann time on December 8, as there may be a turning point that will help us determine the current level of the market and the subsequent trend. Further dates are in mid-December and early January; I will announce the exact timing once the market structure becomes clearer.
#ETH走势分析

Ethereum is about to reach resistance levels, and the overall reversal pattern is positive.

#ETH走势分析

Bitcoin is under pressure at the 94,000 mark, with a perfect conclusion to the 85,000-94,000 range. The opportunity for a low buy on the pullback is on the way.

Enter at 85,000, take profit at 93,500; enter at 2,740, exit at 3,170. The practical trading record has been synchronized with my social circle for reference to review trading models and rhythms. The next entry point will be updated after the next pullback stabilizes; currently, I am on standby with no positions.

1. Market Conclusion and Core Logic

• Current price 91,900 (Beijing time 03:10), 94,200 has not been effectively broken. It was clearly stated yesterday: if 94,200 does not break, exit the range at a profit. The "turnaround" from 85,000 to 94,000 has officially concluded.

• Core judgment: Insufficient main force chips, short-term entry into a pullback accumulation cycle. No need to regret missing this round; the next low buy opportunity is unfolding alongside the pullback.

2. Key Technical Analysis

• Daily K-line (before press time)

◦ Range: Highest 94,040, Lowest 91,700

◦ Support: EMA15 short-term support 91,200, Bollinger Band middle track 90,000

◦ Resistance: 0.618 Fibonacci level 94,200 (strong resistance), Bollinger Band upper track 96,150

◦ Indicators: MACD volume rising, DIF, DEA expanding upwards below the 0 axis; K-line is consolidating in the upward channel of the Bollinger Band. Short-term consolidation is the main focus; breaking strong resistance will take time.

• Four-hour K-line

◦ Risk Warning: There is a secondary risk of a "drawbridge," the impact on speculators will intensify.

◦ Key levels: Trend top 92,000 (current K-line stabilizing), bottom 90,500; Bollinger Band middle track 90,650, lower track 84,500

◦ Indicators: MACD volume weakening, DIF, DEA contracting, short-term pullback is a normal demand.

◦ Strategy: Focus on low buys, do not short for now; reference stop-loss at 90,000; if it does not break, the low buy strategy remains unchanged.

3. Operational Strategy

1. The 85,000-94,000 range profit-taking has been completed, currently waiting with no positions.

2. Pay attention to pullback support: 91,200→90,000→90,500/90,650

3. Entry signal: Stabilize after pulling back to the support range, and the 90,000 mark must not be broken.

4. Stop-loss reference: 90,000; target first looks at 94,200, break through and then look at 96,150

#BTC走势分析

Ethereum's Dual Resistance Levels: Can It Block the Northward Momentum?

Current price of Ethereum is 3,147, as of 05:45 Beijing time. The market has been volatile, and the 0.618 level northward has given about 400 points of space; how much have you grasped?

1. Core Strategy and Position Guidance

• Yesterday it was suggested: take partial profits near 2,900, reduce further at 3,030; keep a close watch on the remaining position at the dual resistance level of 3,170.

• If 3,170 cannot be突破: fully take profits on the northward position; if it breaks through successfully: continue to take profits in batches while retaining the core holding.

2. Daily Technical Situation: Challenging the Dual Resistance

• The daily candlestick broke the previous high of 3,100 before publication, reaching a maximum of 3,158 and a minimum of 2,980, currently challenging 3,170 (the golden ratio 0.5 + EMA30 dual resistance overlap).

• MACD: Continuous volume increase; KDJ: the death cross quickly turns into a golden cross and expands upwards; Bollinger Bands: upper resistance at 3,222, middle support at 2,980.

• The market is difficult to walk in one direction, friends who missed this round need not rush, wait for the next wave of pullback to reposition.

3. Four-hour Technical Situation: Divergence Apparent, Limited Pullback

• The head and shoulders bottom pattern has been completed, with the candlestick hovering at the resistance line of the rising trend at 3,100.

• Short-term support: EMA120 (3,050); resistance remains at 3,170.

• MACD volume weakening, candlestick diverging upwards; KDJ contracting, with a short-term need for a pullback, but the space is not large.

• Bollinger Bands: upper band at 3,195, middle band at 2,940. The northward entry area is clear, and execution can be carried out according to the points mentioned above.

#ETH走势分析 $ETH

Bitcoin has achieved a strong rebound for two consecutive days, resulting in a 'double harvest' from north to south. The key targets and operational strategies for this northward trend are as follows for reference:

1. Core Positions and Target Guidance

• Bitcoin (BTC): Positions entered around $85,000, do not liquidate everything. After locking in profits, be sure to retain part of the base position; the current price is $93,400, next, focus on observing the trading volume and breakout strength at $94,200 before deciding whether to exit completely.

• Ethereum (ETH): Positions set below $2,750 should maintain the original strategy and continue holding, with the target feedback synchronized to $3,170 for subsequent decision-making.

2. Real-time Market and Fund Dynamics (Beijing Time 05:40)

• Current price is $93,400, with a maximum of $93,930 and a minimum of $90,950 before the daily candlestick report.

• After completing the head and shoulders bottom pattern, the market experienced several hundred million dollars in liquidations, concentrated among retail investors who chased the market down at low levels. It was previously indicated that after moving north from $85,000, positions would be liquidated in two batches: the first target at the $90,000 level, and the second target at $93,000, both of which have now been achieved. Practical details have been updated for reference.

3. Daily Technical Analysis: Bullish Trend Continues

• EMA Indicator: EMA15 and EMA30 are in a contracting state, and the price is poised to break upward toward EMA30 (corresponding to the $94,500 level) after stabilizing above EMA15.

• MACD: Continuous volume increase, with the DIF and DEA forming a golden cross at low levels and expanding upward, indicating strong bullish momentum.

• KDJ: The dead cross quickly turned into a golden cross, with indicators resonating positively.

• Bollinger Bands: The price broke above the middle track at $90,200 and moved upward, with attention on the upper track at $96,450. There is still potential for upward movement, and positions can continue to be held.

4. Four-Hour Technical Analysis: Short-term Caution for Pullbacks

• The head and shoulders bottom pattern broke above $85,500 and rebounded strongly, resulting in seven consecutive bullish candles. Currently, it is testing the resistance level of the golden ratio 0.618 (at $94,200).

• The short-term has entered an extreme overbought zone, and a TD nine count signal has appeared, indicating rising demand for a technical pullback.

• Operational Advice: Those who have not entered should patiently wait for a pullback before laying out positions; those who have entered around $85,000 can take profits in batches while retaining their base position without the need to liquidate entirely.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC

Alright, after drinking for two consecutive days, I've finally recovered!

#ETH走势分析 $BTC $ETH

Ethereum 2970 shorting trend, this operation is amazing! Don't resist and become cannon fodder!

It is now 4 AM Beijing time, and the current price of Ethereum is about 2739. The article mentioned at the beginning yesterday that the unilateral trend is clear: either break the previous high resistance at 3100 and go north, or break the previous low support at 2870 and go south; just follow the trend. This wave dropped to a minimum of 2720, some held on and got trapped, while others shorted in line with the trend and made a big profit—details of the practical operation have been updated, and it is recommended that everyone compare for reference to see the differences.

📉 Daily K-line bearish trend fully established

Before the release, the highest was 3000 and the lowest was 2718, with bearish signals clear:

• EMA15: Continues the bearish trend, resistance at 2995;

• Fibonacci Retracement: The K-line is consolidating around the key level of 0.618 at 2749;

• MACD: Volume continues to decrease, DIF and DEA continue to contract below the zero axis;

• Bollinger Bands: The K-line dropped directly from the mid-band of 3000 to the lower band near 2676;

• KDJ: Downward contraction forms a death cross, the bearish trend is fully established, and there are currently no signs of a pullback in the market.

🕒 Four-hour K-line operation guide

After the K-line reaches the 0.618 position, it encounters obvious resistance, and in the short term, it can follow the rhythm below:

1. Try going north: This position can be gradually increased in small batches, with the first entry point here;

2. Stop loss and exit: Once it breaks below 2700, immediately stop loss, don’t hesitate;

3. Second attempt to go north: Wait for the market to approach the previous low of 2620 before considering the second attempt to go north;

4. Core idea: The current bearish trend is the main focus, the key is still "short when encountering resistance on the way up," only make very short-term trades when going north, don’t linger in the battle.
#ETH走势分析 $ETH

Bitcoin's 10-day increase wiped out in one day! Is there still hope for the bulls?

Yesterday, I specifically reminded everyone: never hold on stubbornly in a one-sided market! Bitcoin was positioned north at 90,000, and when it broke key support, it swiftly moved south; Ethereum fell decisively below 2,970 as well. Many crypto friends took this advice, correcting their mistakes in this big market movement without stubbornly holding on, and managed a beautiful turnaround. Congratulations!

It is currently 4 AM Beijing time, and Bitcoin's current price is about 84,900. After the main force lost the 90,000 mark, it moved south all the way. Friends who were able to short at 90,000 and take profits near 85,000 executed a perfect operation, congratulations again! The current core strategy is primarily "if a pullback encounters resistance above, move south," while trying positions north must be quick in and out, taking profits when available without being overly stubborn.

📉 Daily K-line key signals

Before the release, the highest was 90,400, the lowest was 83,786, and the increase over 10 days was completely wiped out in one day, the “door painting” market has finally arrived.

• EMA15 trend fast line: Focus on the 90,500 resistance level;

• MACD: Volume continues to decrease, DIF and DEA are significantly contracting;

• Bollinger Bands: K-line has dropped from the 90,900 mid-track to the 82,000 lower track;

• KDJ: A downward dead cross is formed, with clear bearish signals.

🕒 Four-hour K-line signals

The ascending channel has completely broken down; after falling below 90,000, it headed straight for the golden ratio 0.786 support level at 85,500. The descending flag pattern is nearing its end, and the subsequent formation still needs observation.

• MACD: Volume decreases while moving down, DIF and DEA break below the 0 axis, officially entering a bearish phase;

• Bollinger Bands: The opening is expanding, with the lower track at 85,000, and focus on the 89,600 resistance;

• Entry suggestion: Prioritize entering based on trend support/resistance levels to significantly reduce margin for error.
$BTC
#加密市场回调

Next time someone follows Dan without looking 🦇, I will explode directly!

So many people, how can I have that much time to call each one? Are they trying to kill me?

#加密市场回调 $BTC
$ETH